Best way to bet

[Mr Quaddie]

what is the best way to bet to get your money back?

do you like to bet each way on a lopsided basis like 1*4 or 2*8 or do you bet on my than one horse in a race?

[Ozgunner]

best way to bet? don't ;)

[Ozgunner]

okay [with serious look]
for me depends on my predicted race outcome & price considerations
how I bet can vary race to race
ie. expected finishing position, expected margin between, groupings [main chances, secondary chances, no. in each] likely price, actual price [close to start time], site tipster tips [where I'm betting]
eg1. small group of main chances - might concentrate on win & banker mutiples
eg2. majority of chances in main [chance] groups not tipped by site tipster - might concentrate on boxed multiples
eg3. main groups consist of favs & other good priced starters [some of which I've rated better than favs] - might go ew [1x2] or [1x4] for the rougher ones & also take tri with favs to win from remainder of main groups
eg4. favs rated clearly on top - might play the first4 banking with the favs
eg5. I've rated a number [at least 2] of chances better than the fav & these chances have good recent form & have had at least 3 starts since a spell - might lay the fav
etc

[Ozgunner]

..also dabble for the place if the predicted outcome fits

..how about you Mr Quaddie?

[Mr Quaddie]

if there is a odds-on favourite then i would bank it and put the others in some multiples (trifectas).

i take note of those horses that have been plunged inside the last 15mins of betting, even those that have been plunged but closed at around $20 prooves to be worthwhile place bets.

other than that i would bet for the win on multiple horses. if the favourite was paying $3.80 then it'll allow me to place 3 $1 win bets. Lets say I put win bets on the favourite $3.80 and two other horses $5.60 and $7.10. if any wins well i make a profit. i get three win chances in the race to make a profit. the problem can occur in that the final odds are not calculated in time of jump, so you must be sure that the favourite will not go under $3 in the last moments of betting if you are putting on three $1 win bets.

i like to hedge my bets with a 1*4 combo. if the horse wins it pays well, if it places (second, third) then as long as the place dividend is $1.20 then i make a profit still. $1.30 * $4 = $5.20, profit of at least 20 cents.

[rabbitz]

Yesterday I place bet all day and out of 5 bets I had four results the horses won 2 of the races and ran 2nd and third in the others
You can get small profits this way but you should have a reasonable place divvi ,ie at least $1.40 because with a level stake 5 bets at $1.20 will have you losing if one doesnt run a place

It is diificult to win consisently on the punt and I think you must be very selective and have a lot of willpower

Some ppl who put out systems have very strict criteria and if no horse meets all criteria on a given day then there is NO BET that day...which can be a bit boring particularly if you have a bet for enjoyment

[Mr Quaddie]

if we have $1/$4 bets, and get a strike rate of 4 places (no winners) out of 5, we would need each horse to produce a place dividend of $1.60 to make a profit at the end of the day.

bets = $25

$1.60 * $4 = $6.40 * 4 places = $25.60..so even if we got no winners, and one selection comes unplaced we could still make a profit at the end of $0.60 cents.

[King Cugat]

its a question with no tail i think.

bet to get your money back?

> short term? as in your trying to create as much opportunity for a good win per race, but have a saver whether it be the same horse in a mutli or another horse completely?
or long term as in best chances to get through weeks / months of betting?

[westman]

To a large extent, the size of the pool dictates if I bet, my type of bet & how much I bet. The bigger the pool the better.

[crash]

Bet to win only. In the long run you will either win more or lose less. It's all in the odds. You can stuff around with betting every which way till global warming kills us all, but bet to win only and you will at least die knowing you had the best odds overall, right until the end!

[King Cugat]

can you win long term successfully place betting crash?

[Mr Quaddie]

I thought place betting was the better long term option. You get three chances, sure you get lower odds than the win tote but you get two extra chances to line your pockets.

[crash]

A lot of punters believe the misconception that picking a horse for the place is easy, if it was we would all be lining our pockets with trifecta wins!

Look at all the system results we see in this forum, the win POT is always bigger than the place POT.

A Place bet has 3 chances of a collect and a win bet only 1 chance, which brings up another misconception; that a place bet has 3 times the chance of a collect than a win bet. The truth is a place bet gets 2 more chances of a collect than a win bet, not 3.
Most place odds are between 1/6th to 1/4 the win price, so it doesn't take rocket science to work out that the win bettor is always going to be streets ahead. Less collects sure, but the win punter will win more or lose less than a place punter. It's simple maths. I'm not saying it's impossible to win backing for the place only [Partypooper does], but I'm sure a heck of a lot of hard work and skill is involved.

OK, so better than 1/4 win odds are often available on the totes but usually not on the horse you want to back and even if you do get say 1/3 odds [or sometimes even better], more often than not, watch the odds disappear to 1/4 to 1/6th the win price after they jump!

[King Cugat]

Crash i agree with what your saying [this time:) ] in regards to not getting the 1/4 value everytime Thats the only down side though IMO. If you can get 'set' on 1/4 + of win price ....well....it would be the only way to bet. Betfair is one way but its not often enough. The best of 2 or 3 is the only other chance you have to get 'close enough to get the edge'. There is no other way you can win place betting other then taking the 2 options above. I have kept more data on this outcome covering many agencies, tabs & bookies, then probably anybody has on any 1 system venture. Yes you can make profit, even in winter, but more in Spring - Autumn as more opportunities and more consistent horses are running. Current figures having me to turnover $1.75m - $2m this year > place betting.
I firmly believe theres one secret to place betting other then the above >> at the end of every day, week, month or year its all about the horses i didnt back that make the difference. The horses, that despite how i might feel about them at the time and wanted to back them, i dont becasue they will cost me long term, maybe not in this race, but long term. Punting is an 'adictive' pass time. Like smoking & drinking, it attracts the weak more easily then most hobbies. This means, even the most full proof system can be put infront of most & they will still have difficulty in deciding to do what their brain tells them over what their emotions tell them. Emotions will usually win out. Now add tight margins that punting brings with it. Its a failuire waiting to happen.
Again >>> what i didnt back is more important then what i did back, thats my 1st line of thought after every day and everytime i go over my figures.....and what i think is the secret for me anyway.
I dont claim to know how it should be done, this is just what i do succesfully enough so maybe it'll help, maybe it wont....

[crash]

Crash i agree with what your saying [this time:) ] in regards to not getting the 1/4 value everytime Thats the only down side though IMO. If you can get 'set' on 1/4 + of win price ....well....it would be the only way to bet.


I assume your term 1/4+ [better than] means 1/3rd win value doesn't it? That is what we would need to stay even odds wise with win betting. !/4 [to 1/6th] is what is usually offered for the place on the tote. Not good enough and a lousy unders bet.

[King Cugat]

yes & no.

Yes in regards to a place has 3 chances of a divie compared to 1 of a win. So some see that as 1/3
No in regards to real chances and acceptable odds. Bookies pay 1/4 place each way. i.e. 4/1 or $5 in the new is $2 place. which is 1/4.
a $2.60F should pay $1.40 the place << that is 1/4.
1/4 is the acceptable price.
The shorter the horse the harder to get 'acceptable' place odds as you've pointed out. So that leaves me with suggesting that if you can get 'set' on 1/4 everytime then it would be hard to lose based on the fact i cop less more then once a day.
Once the race has been run and won its sort of pointless to go back and see what the win price settled at when place betting. Of course its ok pre race but as the world turns after your on theres not much you can do so i dont keep stats on what the actual win price paid. Its a factor going in but out of my control once they jump.

[partypooper]

Place betting needs heaps of one thing "Patience" King you found one last week that was paying $1.60 for the win, so $1.15c would have been acceptable, as it happened it won and paid $1.50c a place.... Dark Target,

that's the way to do it, fixed odds ? well yes if you can get em consistantly, other wise it's a case of watching the 3 totes (or more) place the bet at the death and hope, sure sometimes it comes back at $1.10c (but rare) sometimes it's even better than you hoped so you have to work on an overall outcome. In the end if you win you are very clever, if you lose, well they will all be saying "TOLD YOU SO"

My 3 last Sat, Elliotto rated at $1.25c, return = $1.40, Lambton Castle, Rated $1.37 return $1.30 (got it wrong) Given Vision Rated $1.37 return = $1.50c.

So you see you have two battles going on, the first is to actually back enough place getters to show a profit, and after the other battle of always trying to get value.

What ratings to use? don't ask me everyone has a different idea, but I think a good place to start is to look at the overall success rate in terms of P/L, say your ratings service shows 90% ROI, next step is to look at only betting when you can obtain 20% above the rated price, so you can see how I backed those 3 on Saturday, there was actually another 2 possible bets, as it happened both placed, one way under and the other returned right on 20% over but I missed it.

Like I said you really have to have your finger on the pulse place betting, thats why all my win plans/bets are designed to be placed BEFORE racing.

Good luck!

[King Cugat]

Hi Party

Yep you gotta lock em in if you can to increase POT but you should still win with 'best or betters of' if you have the right system & operator. Last week & for the next few i have the kids at home in the afternoons for school holidays. I muck around with them between races in the arvos so have no intention of using betfair aswell with the distractions, as its too hard..... on all of us!
Ive just been using better or best of 2.

Last week I copped $1.04 x 1 $1.10 x5 $1.20 x6 as the poorer results. I still made over 8% POT for the week, because as you say its all in the strike rate & as i say its about knowing which ones not to back. I left 3 on Saturday alone that got smashed late in the ring to near the red. 2 lost & 1 came in. As i only had 5 bets on Saturday theres a chance i would have lost taking them. Instead i went 5/5 (1x $1.50 + 4x $1.30)
Bomber Command was another this afternoon. Wouldnt have touched it at any odds. It came in the ring from $3.2 > $2.60 > $2.40 > $2.30 & you couldnt get a tip for anything else. Amore Harmony was another. $2.00 > $1.70 > $1.80 in the ring. Admittingly i did miss Beau Esprit that paid $1.51. I did have Libertina and copped $1.22. Had i taken all of the so called 'good things' > result would have been -1.27 units. I walked away with 1/1 & only .2 of a unit but thats a days wages and i dont consider Mon or Tue as race days, so its easy to walk.
Im not sure about 'the best way to bet' but can offer the best way i know how!
1. having your own ratings system that you KNOW does the job over any period of time (obviously not everyday)
2. knowing the odds you expect, accept & need and locking them in if you can otherwise having the stats and figures behind you knowing that the best of 2 or 3 will make you profit anyway.
3. The first thought in your mind should be about the horses you dont take rather then what you can or did take. Thats what i have learnt the most & i label it under one word "instinct"

[Mr Quaddie]

Thank you for the information. Its been a great informative thread.

I see some people are for place betting and some are for win betting. How about each way betting? Do you think that is a great option?

[King Cugat]

Each way betting's like dancing with your sister. A real sense of non achievement.
Place punters need lower priced horses to match the higher strike rate thats needed. (I know my system is a big loser using the horses i do to win bet.) The win betters look for higher priced horses to coincide with the smaller strike rate they have. Hence it would be very hard to have both ends of the scale covered on the same horse. Impossible? i dont know

[crash]

E/W ?

And when the nag doesn't even place that's 2 bets wasted rather than one. 1 bet at lousy odds too. A bet that could have been used on another race at win price odds.