Interesting betting results for today using a RADIO TAB tip.

[pengo]

Hi

After doing the numbers for today, you ended up ahead if you used the RADIO TAB TIP for 4th place as your selected horse for a win, place or each/way bet.

All race meets other than Geraldton (yet to complete), Hobart (no 4th place tip) and Tamworth (NTD) were bet on.

At the end of the day after betting 1 unit for either a win, place or each/way you ended up with the following profit:

WIN: 13.1 units
PLACE: 12.1 units
E/W: 25.2 units

For more detail, refer to my spreadsheet of results: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pQkmdy5SPveFLqu6qAWCyPQ


My ultimate goal is to find a system that requires little effort invested for a profit.

[Mark]

Pengo

Put real money on them for the next week, than tell us how much you've lost.

Good luck.

[pengo]

Nah gotta trial it on paper for a bit before I feel confident with putting up my own cash :)

[lomaca]

Nah gotta trial it on paper for a bit before I feel confident with putting up my own cash :)

Pengo,
actually someone tried this and in the long run it almost broke even for the win part.
Sorry to hear the bit of bad news though, hope it'll turn out for the better.
Good luck

[crash]

Hindsight punting. Wave a $50 note in front of a TAB screen and watch the runners lose!

[Beagle]

Take away the first winner @ $23 and things are not too flash.

[pengo]

Yeah beagle, for the win at least that big winner definitely helped things, tho being that you are betting on the 4th placed tip.. the odds tend to be good value.

Pengo,
actually someone tried this and in the long run it almost broke even for the win part.
Sorry to hear the bit of bad news though, hope it'll turn out for the better.
Good luck

With what you said in mind, it maybe best to simply place bet instead of each/way. Since the place return is good too.

What bad news?

[lomaca]

What bad news?

Well if you don't think it is, than so much the better. I came across your post on the other forum, when looking for the some advice.
Good luck

[pengo]

You referring my post in my diet/exercise thread on ocau? If so I'm sure its all for the best as much as its left a bitter taste in my mouth!

[pengo]

Maybe not enough race meets today, as one of the two meets today hardly paid a third place div so reduced your chances of a return.

If you just followed the one meet today that paid all 3 places, you would be down 1.6 units. With you still being ahead from yesterday.

Might have to restrict this to the weekend where there is quite a few meets on.

[Bhagwan]

Those 4th position things do have their good days.

May I suggest to only target the runners E/W if one can get a min of $2.00

What I have noticed is that one can hit long runs of outs but some of the prices can be amazing.

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Maybe not enough race meets today, as one of the two meets today hardly paid a third place div so reduced your chances of a return.

If you just followed the one meet today that paid all 3 places, you would be down 1.6 units. With you still being ahead from yesterday.

Might have to restrict this to the weekend where there is quite a few meets on.

Pengo, or anyone else interested in this sort of betting, and can and will endure sitting in front of the screen watching prices.

Ignore all country races.
Best if bet on Met. races, but if you must, you can go Prov.

Ignore where less then 12 runners, no upper limit, as a matter of fact the more horses the better, (can go as low as 10 but risky, definitely no less then 10).
Ignore where the fav is paying less then $3.00. (you can chance your arm at maybe $2.80 for the fav.)
Your selection, <b>MUST</b> be paying less than $15.00, (maybe $18.00 but I would not advice)

Believe me they just don't win often enough over $15.00, and the favs. win more often if less than $3.00.

I never advocate, and I mean <b>NEVER</b> use or advocate progressive staking, but in this instance a simple progression of adding your initial bet amount to the next bet if losing, will show a very nice profit.
Example: first bet $1.00 second $2.00 third $3.00 etc. Once you get a winner, back to $1.00, or whatever you usually bet. The longest out so far was 31, so be prepared to have the bank and the will to survive, <b>if you don't have it don't start!!</b> There is nothing more frustrating then stopping for the lack of funds or willpower, and the horse comes in!
Good luck

[lomaca]

The longest out so far was 31, so be prepared to have the bank and the will to survive, <b>if you don't have it don't start!!</b> There is nothing more frustrating then stopping for the lack of funds or willpower, and the horse comes in!
Good luck
Just in case you mistake the 31 outs to mean, the most you will be up for is $31.00?
Not so, it's actually $496.00!!!! That is increasing your initial $1.00 bet by $1.00 each time after a losing bet!! Keep that in mind

[lomaca]

Insanity betting. Take up lawn bowls if reduced to following that strategy of betting.

True Crash,
But if someone is going to do it anyway, at least I checked it out, and gave them a guide to do it with the minimum amount of pain.
I have seen worse methods around the traps, I can tell you! And for some you even have to <b>pay for!</b>

[pengo]

Provincal would be what meets around the nation?

Just simply following the 4th placed tip stratgy blindly without Iomaca's criteria you would have bet on Echuca and wouldn't have done too badly!

Still I think there is something in Iomaca's criteria/guidelines, as far as odds are concerned and sticking to metro races. I wouldn't progressively bet tho, personally I'd bank the profits and accept the the losses.

[lomaca]

Provincal would be what meets around the nation?

Just simply following the 4th placed tip stratgy blindly without Iomaca's criteria you would have bet on Echuca and wouldn't have done too badly!

Still I think there is something in Iomaca's criteria/guidelines, as far as odds are concerned and sticking to metro races. I wouldn't progressively bet tho, personally I'd bank the profits and accept the the losses.

As you please, but on level stakes it's just in the black, the return for the risk makes it useless.
I personally never bet like this, but if you can find an angle for the "4th placed tip", something specific, that makes it a better selection, then you can probably make it work on level betting as well. Also I would reduce the odds to around $13.00 because most of the winners are in the $7 to $13.00 range.
Good luck

[Bhagwan]

Hi Imoca
Heres a plan that needs similar odds to that staking plan to recover on the 31st bet, but with a fraction of the O/L.

It works in 6 lots of 1 & go up the ladder.
Repeat the bet that does not put us in profit.

It relies on ones ability to hit winners at 30% less than the odds needed at level stakes to break even over a series of 70 bets.

If one cant do that... then take up Lawn Bowls.

The idea is to run it for 70 bets until in profit.=Total $468
111111
222222
333333
444444
555555
6 ect.
31 bets
O/L 96
Odds needed on 31st. bet to break even 15/1

This is exactly the same odds as your idea of betting 1 through to the 31st bet.
(Bet 31 divided into 496)

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Hi Imoca
Heres a plan that needs similar odds to that staking plan to recover on the 31st bet, but with a fraction of the O/L.



Thanks Bhagwan.
Very interesting, I knew there was a better staking plan, and probably could even be made better. There were a few winners very close together but not many. The 31 run of outs, refers to metropolitan races. I don't have enough info. for the prov. and country races.

The only thing that is against your staking is the 15/1 odds required, as I said most of the winners come in at an average 10/1.

As I said, I don't actually use staking methods, or betting on tipsters poll.
I handicap the horses I bet on, and put my bets on as soon as the scratchings are known, regardless of the eventual prices. Works for me, besides I could not sit here watching and comparing prices. In the long run I am happy with Supertab, it's all swings and roundabouts.

[partypooper]

Lomaca, thanks for your postings, which are usually well thought out and practical. There's just one thing you said that I can't get my head around: i.e. You say you bet Supertab, cos roundabouts and swings etc? but why would you do that when you can have the best tote odds everytime?

[pengo]

a lot more races on today, will be interesting to see how they go.

[lomaca]

Lomaca, thanks for your postings, which are usually well thought out and practical. There's just one thing you said that I can't get my head around: i.e. You say you bet Supertab, cos roundabouts and swings etc? but why would you do that when you can have the best tote odds everytime?

Hi Party,
The answer is easy, I have no patience to sit here and watch the screen.

The swings etc. comes in because over time, the prices I get on Supertab are nearly as good as any, it sort of evens itself out. I am happy with the returns, never a problem withdrawing, and looking after one account is all I am prepared to handle.
I tried the rest, and for <b>ME</b> this is the easiest.

With two bookies I had an account with, I can now only bet $20 a pop, depending on the odds, so I don't bother with any of them.
Not to mention that because I bet on horses with longish odds, I get a better price on the TAB.
Betfair is out for the time it takes, and I may not get a match anyway.
But mainly it's just the simplicity of the TAB!

Maybe I could get an extra one or two percent by shopping around, but my selection method is good enough not to relay on a measly one percent to make it over the line.
If it did I would do like crash said, "take up lawn balls"

After saying all this, if someone else is happy to wheel and deal on Betfair or anywhere else making small but steady profits on large turnover, good luck to them.
Maybe they will be around long after, I ran out of steam
Good luck.

[pengo]

After a quick glance on all of the races today, you got a couple big winners (double digit odds) and a few reasonable winners (single digit). A lot of places, so with out doing the numbers, it looks like you would have been ahead so finished with a nice profit.

The best meet from a quick glance was from Sandown, so there might be something to what Iomaca says and just stick to metro races.

[partypooper]

Lomaca, ah, great minds think alike! I also like to place my bets before racing in most cases. I can't bet with Betfair as I'm in WA. But my account with Sportsbet, pays City Best Price or SP WHICHEVER IS THE GREATER, in other words you place your bet and are guaranteed the best divi of the 3 totes or SP whichever is the greatest, every time without having to watch the screen?

At Country meets they pay best of Supertab and NSW tab.

I cannot understand NOT taking advantage of this ESPECIALLY when betting for the place.

I know this has digressed a bit (lot) from the original post here, but it's still relevant I think.

PS Cash is in or out in a flash, no charges and probs ever!

[Shaun]

As lomaca pointed out the bookies realy only want losing punters if you are a winner they restrict you, i know the tabs offer bad prices some times and can pay very different odds fron state to state but atleast they are not refusing bets and we are not talking $1000 bets here i know of some punters betting no more than $200 a selection that have been cut down to $20 by the bookies online yet others have no problems getting on, i guess it depends on how much you win off them.

I have ofter said we would beneafit from one national tote and with the money from NZ now coming in i think it a good idea at least for the larger punters.

What i like to do specialy with place bets is just decide how much i want to bet and divide it by 3 then place equal amounts on the three TABs that way i get an average divi arther than trying to find the best price and get on, this allowes me to bet at anytime during the day.

[stugots]

re bookies restricting bet amounts for certain punters, i read somewhere that many larger bookies use a bit of software that identifies their clients that regularly get on at a good price about nags that then shorten substantially.

whether the nags wins or not is irrelevant & losing punters have had accounts closed or restricted because (apparently) punters betting in this manner are often likely to end up in front long term and cause the most damage to the poor old book.

just what i read...

[lomaca]

As lomaca pointed out the bookies realy only want losing punters if you are a winner they restrict you, i know the tabs offer bad prices some times and can pay very different odds fron state to state but atleast they are not refusing bets and we are not talking $1000 bets here i know of some punters betting no more than $200 a selection that have been cut down to $20 by the bookies online yet others have no problems getting on, i guess it depends on how much you win off them.



Shaun,
Spot on re. bookies, my biggest bet for a win is hardly ever more than $100. You just can't bet more at the odds I am playing with and not ruin them, even on the TAB.
Depending on the pools of course, because I bet on many low class and maiden races!
If anyone out there think we are talking b..s.. re. the bookies, here is a simple exercise.
Bet $50 on horses paying better then 8/1 and collect regularly one out of seven, and see how gracious and generous your bookie really is, if you can do it every week, let alone every day!?

And I do slightly better or just 1 out of 6, at an average of $8.00.

#
Hi Party,
You make a good point, I will think on it.
Incidentally, quite a few of my selection are what you call PPM's.
When they come on top by handicapping the whole race, not by just a simple filter, you'd be surprised how much better they do, both for win and place (mostly place alas).

[partypooper]

Shaun, I've only ever had that happen to me once and that was in the UK, and that was in the days when although I had some spectacular wins I was overall a loser.

Here, let's just say that I have a large family and most of em like to have an account ??????

Lomaca ditto the above, and as regards PPM, yes well, I posted the original rules, and it's up to anyone interested to put their own slant on it. I'm gonna be a real tease now and say that I personally apply 2 more rules which instantly turns it into a winner, but that's all I'm saying hahahah!

[crash]

Lomaca, ah, great minds think alike! I also like to place my bets before racing in most cases. I can't bet with Betfair as I'm in WA. But my account with Sportsbet, pays City Best Price or SP WHICHEVER IS THE GREATER, in other words you place your bet and are guaranteed the best divi of the 3 totes or SP whichever is the greatest, every time without having to watch the screen?

At Country meets they pay best of Supertab and NSW tab.

I cannot understand NOT taking advantage of this ESPECIALLY when betting for the place.

PS Cash is in or out in a flash, no charges and probs ever!


An advert. for Sportsbet Party? :-)

It all sounds well and good and it is ..... as long as a punter doesn't give a fig about what the 'best price' turned out to be. Odds can go up or down dramatically by jump time. It's blind betting when we are supposed to be looking for overs, not hoping chance unders and overs will even themselves out to our benefit!

If a punter prices a horse as a bad bet at say, less than $4.50 and the best price from sportsbet eventually turns out to be $3.50, they are playing goose punter every time, and that would be a lot of the time. The fact they end up a slightly smaller goose than the punters betting elsewhere, who's price on the same selection was less, doesn't make it best punting practice, just best lousy price blindly accepted.

Long term, pre-race betting is best with a bookie at set min. odds.

[partypooper]

Long term, pre-race betting is best with a bookie at set min. odds. [QUOTE]


Absolutely Crash, this is definitly the way to go when looking for overs.

My obsevation was for betting in general, i.e. why place a bet with Supertab at whatever the divi when you can bet at best of 3+???

Now, this one is not an argument but remember that your min price might be say $4, and some times it comes in $5 (best of 3+) eg only, what I'm getting at is; there is roundabouts and swings element here.

PS. I have no affiliation with Sporstbet ( but I'm open to offers hee hee) the same applies to any org that offers the same deal???? (i.e. best of 3+SP)

[crash]

Long term, pre-race betting is best with a bookie at set min. odds. [QUOTE]


Absolutely Crash, this is definitly the way to go when looking for overs.

My obsevation was for betting in general, i.e. why place a bet with Supertab at whatever the divi when you can bet at best of 3+???

Now, this one is not an argument but remember that your min price might be say $4, and some times it comes in $5 (best of 3+) eg only, what I'm getting at is; there is roundabouts and swings element here.



Of course your right Party, if a punter is going to pre-bet a race hours ahead [and not use a bookie], they should go for the best price they will end up with. Problem is it's still mug punting. The swings and roundabouts angle, seldom work in the punter's favour.
Even if we end up getting our $4 [or better] 50% of the time and less the other 50% of the time, it's poor punting practice, as 50% of those bets are bad bets [unders] and shouldn't have been made.

I'm sure you agree that to make a profit through punting, maximizing overs and avoiding unders requires constant vigilance and above all restraint ... knowing when NOT to bet a selection.

[pengo]

i got about $25 on ias, so currently betting 1 unit for a place today... see how I go.

[lomaca]

i got about $25 on ias, so currently betting 1 unit for a place today... see how I go.
pengo!
give me an email address, in a couple of days, I may have something for you re. the previous method. Now that I have the latest records, may have to revise!
Cheers

[pengo]

pengoz at gmail dot com

[pengo]

Ended up with a 20c profit, would have been more if I didn't bet on a couple of horses out side of this system :)

[pengo]

some more stats based on today's results, using the tipsters to make a selection:

Only metro races. Rosehill, Eagle Farm, Flemington

late mail is a tip from tipsters
1-8
2-4
3-
DNP-8
12/20
--
late mail is in top 2 picks of both tipsters.
1-3
2-3
3-
DNP-6
7/12
--
late mail is 1st pick for both tipsters.
1-1
2-1
3-
DNP-
2/2
--
late mail is a 1st pick for one of the two tipsters.
1-5
2-3
3-
DNP-5
9/13

[pengo]

Betting day as follows:

using tips as listed on tabonline.com.au

Where there is 4 tips, place betting on 4th pick from RADIO TAB tip.

E/W betting where late mail is 1st pick from both tipsters.

-
First up:
LAUNCESTON Race 2: 7- Ego Driven. E/W BET, DNP

Next up:
PAKENHAM RACE 1
10-SLINKY CHELLE, Place.

[pengo]

PAKENHAM RACE 1
10-SLINKY CHELLE, Place.

DNP

[lomaca]

DNP
pengo!
bet if you must but if you can resist for a few days while I grab some time to process the new data, you will be much better off!

[pengo]

Ok,

I'm going to wind it down and just place bet where the late mail tip is in both tips as the first pick.

That will reduce the amount of betting and leave some some money left for future betting :)

PT MACQUARIE
R5
1 LANGFIBIAN

[pengo]

LAUNCESTON Race 7
e/w
2-FORBIDDEN QUEST

PT MACQUARIE Race 8*
e/w
1-EIREPLAY
place
5-METTLE

* bet made, not part of system betting.

[pengo]

LAUNCESTON Race 7
e/w
2-FORBIDDEN QUEST

1st

[pengo]

Ok,
PT MACQUARIE
R5
1 LANGFIBIAN
1st

[pengo]

LAUNCESTON Race 7
PT MACQUARIE Race 8*
e/w
1-EIREPLAY
place
5-METTLE

* bet made, not part of system betting.

1- 2nd
5- Late scratching.

[pengo]

1 for 2 so far place betting on the radio tab 1st pick when it is also the late mail.

Rocky Race 8, No 7, came in 1st.

Pt linc Race 4, No 2, came in 4th (tho I also bet on the horse that came 3rd as I liked its record, so not so bad).

Last bet today is Rocky Race 10, No 4 (but also selected no 7 as I like its record).

But as far as "the system" goes, its 1 for 2 at the moment.

[pengo]

2 for 4 based on the system.

Last race, the system selection came 4th and my non system based selection came 3rd.