Can any one test this please

[Shaun]

1) Horse must have between 80% and 99% place strike rate

2) Must be the only selection in the race

3) must have had atleast 5 starts

[Chrome Prince]

Not too good Shaun,

5063 selections

Win return $4,588.20
Place return $4,474.28

So it's a 9.4% win loss on turnover approximately.

That's as per your rules taking out multiple runners in a race.

[partypooper]

Chrome, as expected BUT, just as a matter of interest what was the % of places?

[Shaun]

Thanks mate, we will see what we can do with that.

One day i will have to make a good investment in that database then i can run my own tests.

[Chrome Prince]

5063 selections
2421 placings

Place Strike rate of 47.82%

[partypooper]

Chrome, thanks for that, but it sounds too bad to be true, is that the WIN s/r maybe?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, it's the place strike rate.

It's actually 47.62% S/R, I included NTD horses by accident :(

[partypooper]

Chrome, I'm amazed then at the ave. divi and only a lot of 10%, considering that you'd expect horses with 80-90% place S/R to be fairly short, amazing!

[Shaun]

Not too good Shaun,

5063 selections

Win return $4,588.20
Place return $4,474.28

So it's a 9.4% win loss on turnover approximately.

That's as per your rules taking out multiple runners in a race.


Can i ask over what period did you run these stats as these are only about 15 selections per week this seams a lot of runners unless these stats are for about 10 years results.

[lomaca]

Hi Shaun,
it's amazing how one can be mislead by place percentage.
I would not have believed myself, that the result was so poor.
I quickly double checked it back to 2001 and out of 4424 races there were only 967 winners. A miserable 21.84%. Did not bother to check the place% after this.
Goes to show the fallacy of relaying on simple filters, doesn't it?
Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

Can i ask over what period did you run these stats as these are only about 15 selections per week this seams a lot of runners unless these stats are for about 10 years results.

Shaun I did Metro races 2000...2007

[lomaca]

Hi Shaun,
With hindsight and a bit of logic thrown in, it was inevitable that we got the results we did. (horses with more than 5 starts and place% > 80)
They just don't know <b>how to win</b>!

[partypooper]

well, of course the horses wins are counted in the 80% places (i.e. a WIN is a placing) but it cpould be interesting to see how it pans out with say, 50% win record AND 80-99% place record??(inc. the wins that is)

[lomaca]

well, of course the horses wins are counted in the 80% places (i.e. a WIN is a placing) but it cpould be interesting to see how it pans out with say, 50% win record AND 80-99% place record??(inc. the wins that is)

True party!
I thought of that, but since the results have shown that the win% is only around 21%, it was fairly obvious that these are horses who never pass another horse.
I remember one that had 5 2s to its name , and true enough, came second again!
That's why I reasoned that place perc. alone (unless in a maiden race) is not a good enough filter if you bet for win.

[Shaun]

Chrome , could i trouble you for another test please

1) 50% win
2) 5 or more starts

Can i get the win and place results please.

[Chrome Prince]

3357 selection
735 winners
1559 placings
Win LOT -7.60%
Place LOT -11.44%
Win S/r 21.89%
Place S/r 46/44%
Max Win Divvy 50.90
Max Place Divvy 9.50
Avg Win Divvy $4.22
Avg Place Divvy $1.91

[Shaun]

Well that one can go in the to hard basket