Can someone test this please

[Nutter1]

Saturday Perth races only (Ascot/Belmont). STAB Favourite at jump, Payout on best of three Totes and Starting price if possible.
I Started doing this 5 weeks ago with a $1000 bank and have been betting 5% of the bank with the intension of restarting at $1000 again once i reach $2000. So far after this weekend i just withdrew my first $1000 winnings. It is a well known fact that alot of favourites come in at perth but is it always this good. I dont think you would make a profit just on STAB prices though. Sometimes the winner had a very good starting price also, thats why i have been using best of three totes and SP.

[swampfox]

Hi Nutter,
The following is NSW TAB (thats all I have)

2005-2007


Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 33.6%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 66.3%
Average Win Dividend : $2.59
Average Plc Dividend : $1.38


Races: 1214
Wins: 408
Return: 1056
Loss: 158...13.01%

2005: -43.40 10%
2006: -31.20 8%
2007: -83.20 22%

Big losses to make up with Best Tote or Bookies. Good luck.

[Nutter1]

Thanks For That, Maybe i should stop whilst im ahead. From what i saw in the past 5 weeks is i tend to receive about 20% more on divs by best tote and SP. By Level stakes betting in the past 5 weeks i would be 16 points up, where as by increased stakes betting im 20 points up, if i bet at STAB i would be only 12 points up at level stakes. Maybe progression betting is the key.

[Chrome Prince]

3421 races
1056 winners
32.58% S/R
Loss 12.23%
Average dividend $2.69
Minimum Dividend $1.10
Maximum Dividend $6.40

2000 -10.07%
2001 -8.57%
2002 -23.14%
2003 -6.49%
2004 -13.30%
2005 -7.45%
2006 -4.59%
2007 -24.53%

As you can see, some years you lose more than 20%, some years you lose as little as 4.59%

Under 10% it would be quite possible to make a small percentage using best tote.

I'd recommend using Betfair and setting a price limit on your bets, if it's matched go ahead, if not, pass the race.

Sticking to hot favourites under $2.00 you only lose 7.83%, but you are far more likely to get "value" on the easy favourites. For example you won't get $3.00 about an even money shot, but you might just get $7.50 about a 5/1 shot.

[Nutter1]

Thanks For That. I have never looked at betfair before, have seen alot written about it in here but as im from W.A I think thats the one place i cant bet, not completly sure though, does anyone know?

[Mr Quaddie]

yeah i am pretty sure wa has legislation that you can not have an account with betfair. they are a restrictive bunch in perth.

[Shaun]

Yep no betfair from WA thats for sure, if you have a relative that is in easton states get them to open an account and put money in it for you, then you just tell them you are on holidays here if they ask.