Bhagwan
26th January 2008, 09:06 AM
Here is a money management plan that may interest those who like to base there selections, not being the market fav.
The big problem every punter has in seeking value is the problem of the fav knocking our selection over , only to see yet another one of our trusty steeds run 2nd,, yet again, to the market fav who has never had a run in its life. Frustrating!
Well heres a plan that is based around the documented fact ,that the shorter a fav is , the greater its percentage chance of winning.
What we propose to do is bet less on our selection if the fav is short priced & more if the fav is longer priced.
We will assume a $200 Bank.
$10 base amount for our calculations.
.Divide the Favs price say $3.00, into $10 = 3.30
.Now $10 minus $3.30 = $6.70
.This $6.70 is the amount we bet over our 1 or 2 selections to beat the fav.
More examples.
Fav---Our outlay for the race, on our selections to beat the fav.
$1.50--3.30
$2.00--5.00
$2.50--6.00
$3.00--6.60
$3.50--7.15
$4.00--7.50
I see this idea working best targeting 2 horses to beat the market fav.
In races with 9 runners & less.
Maybe dutch bet this amount proportionally with staggered bets would work best.
Or bet half & half if prices are really good for your 2 selections.
As one can see, we are minimising our exposure where the fav is a perceived market threat & maximising our bet where the fav has a perceived lesser chance of beating our selections, therefore a greater chance of making profit, long term.
It is very difficult to make a profit betting at level stakes , same amount on every thing , long term. So minimising our outlays when necessary should increase our chance of making a profit due to the favs doing their thing year in year out.
Remember, the Fav is our enemy. Shorter their price , the greater its win percentage chance of winning.
That's the cruel reality, so what we are trying to do is bet within this recurring factor.
If one has the ability to difine a fav that wont win, one will be a millionair by lunch time, but failing that the next best thing to do is minimise ones exposure when competing against hot shot favs.
Now for those who wish to ride with the wild ponies.
This is a reverse book of the above for those who wish to take the larger prices on offer where there is a short priced fav in the market.
Hopefully the greater prices may make up for the lower SR when taking on our selections to beat the market Fav .
What we are doing here is , the shorter the price of the market fav the more we put on our selctions to knock off the Fav. & gamble for the big pay out & they do happen..
Reverse Value Book.
We divide the Favs price into $10 & this becomes our O/L for the race.
Fav---Our outlay for the race on our selections to beat the market Fav.
$1.50--6.70
$2.00--5.00
$2.50--4.00
$3.00--3.30
$3.50--2.90
$4.00--2.50
These stratergies work best using Betfair because the market is usually framed around 105% instead of 118.5% of the TABs. That is a massive value difference. After all , this is all about stratergy of seeking value against the Fav.
Use Bet Trader Pro (Free) to place bets less than $6.00 on Betfair.
If one wishes to check out what the winning chance of favs in certain price ranges & field sizes are, Google "Flat Stats", then go to sub catagory Race Stats in the left hand column.
Remember to have fun with ones punting & use your head, not over you head.
Always know what the longest run of outs one feels comfortable dealing with.
Cheers.
The big problem every punter has in seeking value is the problem of the fav knocking our selection over , only to see yet another one of our trusty steeds run 2nd,, yet again, to the market fav who has never had a run in its life. Frustrating!
Well heres a plan that is based around the documented fact ,that the shorter a fav is , the greater its percentage chance of winning.
What we propose to do is bet less on our selection if the fav is short priced & more if the fav is longer priced.
We will assume a $200 Bank.
$10 base amount for our calculations.
.Divide the Favs price say $3.00, into $10 = 3.30
.Now $10 minus $3.30 = $6.70
.This $6.70 is the amount we bet over our 1 or 2 selections to beat the fav.
More examples.
Fav---Our outlay for the race, on our selections to beat the fav.
$1.50--3.30
$2.00--5.00
$2.50--6.00
$3.00--6.60
$3.50--7.15
$4.00--7.50
I see this idea working best targeting 2 horses to beat the market fav.
In races with 9 runners & less.
Maybe dutch bet this amount proportionally with staggered bets would work best.
Or bet half & half if prices are really good for your 2 selections.
As one can see, we are minimising our exposure where the fav is a perceived market threat & maximising our bet where the fav has a perceived lesser chance of beating our selections, therefore a greater chance of making profit, long term.
It is very difficult to make a profit betting at level stakes , same amount on every thing , long term. So minimising our outlays when necessary should increase our chance of making a profit due to the favs doing their thing year in year out.
Remember, the Fav is our enemy. Shorter their price , the greater its win percentage chance of winning.
That's the cruel reality, so what we are trying to do is bet within this recurring factor.
If one has the ability to difine a fav that wont win, one will be a millionair by lunch time, but failing that the next best thing to do is minimise ones exposure when competing against hot shot favs.
Now for those who wish to ride with the wild ponies.
This is a reverse book of the above for those who wish to take the larger prices on offer where there is a short priced fav in the market.
Hopefully the greater prices may make up for the lower SR when taking on our selections to beat the market Fav .
What we are doing here is , the shorter the price of the market fav the more we put on our selctions to knock off the Fav. & gamble for the big pay out & they do happen..
Reverse Value Book.
We divide the Favs price into $10 & this becomes our O/L for the race.
Fav---Our outlay for the race on our selections to beat the market Fav.
$1.50--6.70
$2.00--5.00
$2.50--4.00
$3.00--3.30
$3.50--2.90
$4.00--2.50
These stratergies work best using Betfair because the market is usually framed around 105% instead of 118.5% of the TABs. That is a massive value difference. After all , this is all about stratergy of seeking value against the Fav.
Use Bet Trader Pro (Free) to place bets less than $6.00 on Betfair.
If one wishes to check out what the winning chance of favs in certain price ranges & field sizes are, Google "Flat Stats", then go to sub catagory Race Stats in the left hand column.
Remember to have fun with ones punting & use your head, not over you head.
Always know what the longest run of outs one feels comfortable dealing with.
Cheers.