How often does the race fav win or place in small field of runners?

[pengo]

G'day

I've been having a lot of success today, backing the favourite and even the quinella (box top 3 horses) today..

So just wondering if someone could reply back with the stats for the following conditions:

Race has no more than 6 runners, short priced favourite has won or placed (since small field 1st or 2nd).

Would be interesting to see what the strike rate is for the SP fav in such a small field..

Thanks

[Bhagwan]

All the stats for this can be found by Google "Flat Stats" then go to LHS of page sub title "Race Stats" one can tailor the search to exactly what you want.

Cheers.

[pengo]

thanks, but thats for uk racing...

[partypooper]

Pengo, I haven't the stats anymore, but I did do extensive research a few years ago, always frustratingly when the S/R increased due to filters the SP decreased in proportion, so same story. loss of about 10% on turnover. Amazingingly the closest to break even was backing odds on chances only.
Another thing was that there was virtually no difference (over time) in S/R no matter what the class of race, and again where there was; the SP decreased in proportion. Also virtually no difference in LOT (over time) between the actual fav or the pre-post fav.

[stugots]

just an observation that i am sure many share is that fields of 6 or < often are not run at a true pace & with upsets not uncommon

& many a time im sure ive seen the jocks having a bit of a chat as they dawdle down the back straight...(probably auctioning off the result):)

[Dancing Sun]

Heres another one- How many maidens who win, go on to win their next race

[Bhagwan]

The general stats from that UK site are almost identical to Australian racing.
e.g. Favs are placed 61% of the time, same as here in Aust according to Gary Robinson's book on Favs.
The average div is also the same.

The question of Maidens winning their next race after a win is pretty terrible because they are going up in class after their maiden win.
Their SR is less than the overall last start winner stat average of 20% it also generates a level stakes loss.

[Merriguy]

Therefor a good lay???? Have always thought that (with few exceptions) C1 horses are pretty ratty to follow anyway.

[Dancing Sun]

You are thinking the same way i am Merriguy

[Chrome Prince]

Don't lay them....

Maiden winners that start favourite next start win 33.41% of races and the loss is only 11.41%

Not as bad as one might think, in fact pretty good.

[Dancing Sun]

very interesting

[Merriguy]

Yes, interesting, Thanks Chrome.

[stugots]

Don't lay them....

Maiden winners that start favourite next start win 33.41% of races and the loss is only 11.41%

Not as bad as one might think, in fact pretty good.

so their winning % & lot are about the same as that for all favourites or am i missing something?

[Chrome Prince]

Their winning percentage is slightly above the average and LOT the same, so it's not a laying angle unless you can find the losers or a lower average price.