3% Per day

[thorns]

I'm sure this has been talked about before, but none the less. This idea has always fascinated me, if you manage to increase your total bank just 3% per day, your bank will double in one month (28 days from memory exactly). Every now and then I feel like having another crack at trying to achieve this, never with real succes. Most of my ideas revolve around using a progression type staking plan, but in the end the problem always come down to the fact that your risking so much to gain so little.

My current idea is playing round with the top 4-5 in the market, dutching a few of them to try get a high strike rate, and using a mild progression to try and grind it out, perhaps even trying for a smaller figure of even 1% per series, and trying to clear 3 of them a day. Anybody got any suggestions on a plan that could perhaps be suitable? And perhaps a better method?

I realise that this is alot harder than it sounds (if it were easy, why would anyone work). But would be keen to throw some ideas round with everyone else on these forums and see what we can come up with.

To all those who are going to jump on here and say it cant be done, loss chasing is the quick way to lose all your money, don't bother posting saying that. We all know the arguments, this is purely for a bit of fun to try and liven things up around here.

Just think with a start bank of $100, by the end of this year it would be at $204800, wouldnt that be a nice xmas present :)

[Bhagwan]

Hi Thorns,
Using the rule of 72 one will have double their money in 24 days based on compounding 3% daily .
3 divided into 72 = 24 days compounded, will double your money.

Heres a way of going towards the objective that one may wish to try.

Target 1% of bank e.g. $10 with a $1000 bank.
Or $1 with a bank of $100
This can be done using Betfair using the betting tool Bet Trader Pro (Free).

Divisor to be used 3 lots of 3/1, 4 lots of 4/1, 5 lots of 5/1 ect. once a winner is struck that does not get us into profit go back one set of divisors.
never drop divisor below 3/1 even though its price maybe less.

Example divisors being used to win 1% fixed target plus previouse losses.
Divisors 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6w 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6w 5 5 5 5 5w 4 4 4 4w 3 3 3w 3 3 3 4 ect.

This should be good for cover more than 22 outs.

Selection process using Betfair.
TAB prices are nearly always lower, so dont bet with the TAB.

.Target the 2nd Betfair market Fav in every race & the 2nd fav is paying $4+

.15 runners & less.

Some of the prices can be very good.

One could use the target betting program in Ozracingtools if one does not wish to do this manually.

Stop betting for the day once 2.5% has been gained.


Give it a dry run first on some past results first.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Thorns, rather than try volume of bets to achieve 3% per day, have you thought about doing it like some of the pros.....pick out one horse, your absolute best bet of the day and put all your effort into obtaining the best possible price on it. You won't make 3% per day, but you certainly will make more than an average of 3% per day if you get good prices.

If your target is 3% I reckon you could average that place betting the one horse as well - just avoid Canterbury at all costs - it's a devil's track.

[partypooper]

G'day Thorns,...The Main thing is that you would have lost interest a LONG, LONG time b4 that 12 months is up,....guaranteed!

Bg's plan may have worked by pure luck in that time, but chances are that your thoughts would be a long way from there by then!

BUT you are thinking along the right lines..... in the sense that you can make a killing from a good run whilst only losing a minimal amount from many mediocre/bad runs.

eg. (stressed example only) if you were to bet 1/5 of a given bank NEVER REDUCING, then you would lose your bank several times b4 you hit lucky and increased to say 20 fold, b4 calling it quits and starting again.

Hope that gives you some insight,

Regards, John (Perth WA)

[crash]

Anyone who can make a constant 3% a day can make a constant 300% [or 3000%] a day.

[darkydog2002]

Why Not pick 1 best bet of the day then on each winner increase your bet by 1 unit ( if a loser remain on the previous stake)
i.e 1st bet $50 = winner /next bet $100.

Hmm.Interesting .I shall have $50 on Goulburn R 2 H 1 HYSON GREEN

Cheers.
darky.

[crash]

Why not just make your 1st. bet $100?

[stugots]

Hmm.Interesting .I shall have $50 on Goulburn R 2 H 1 HYSON GREEN




ouch, this is not directed solely at you darky but plenty on here chasing the odds on nags lately

that strategy only leads to one place that im aware of... same place some of my 'laying' adventures did..

[Crackone]

Anyone who can make a constant 3% a day can make a constant 300% [or 3000%] a day.Not every punter is capable (mentally & financialy) of betting 100's of dollars on a race.

Thought I would give it a go today Thorns, progressive betting the Fav. all races on Betfair (trotts, dogs as well)

$84 opening balance.
achieved 3% of balance 8 times
longest run of outs was 4 (target was about $12 from memory) Biggest bet $4.50
closing balance $106

Cheers

[crash]

That's a whole lot different to making 3% EVERY day. I've had a 30/1, 15/1 and a 12/1 shot wins in the last week. So what? If I knew I could do it EVERY week I'd be betting in thousands of $.

[Crackone]

That's a whole lot different to making 3% EVERY day. True but you have to start at day one!!!!

[darkydog2002]

Well that was a nice little disaster yesterday for me but hope springs eternal.

Cheers.
darky.

[thorns]

Not every punter is capable (mentally & financialy) of betting 100's of dollars on a race.

Thought I would give it a go today Thorns, progressive betting the Fav. all races on Betfair (trotts, dogs as well)

$84 opening balance.
achieved 3% of balance 8 times
longest run of outs was 4 (target was about $12 from memory) Biggest bet $4.50
closing balance $106

CheersThats a nice start, although I know it was a pretty good run of favs, and eventually using just the favourite, it will fall over eventually, I have tried using that before. Have also tried it using the fav for a plcae, but again a bad run quickly spirals out of control. But it is all just a bit of fun for me at the moment, I know it is a pretty hard task in reality.

[Crackone]

Thats a nice start, although I know it was a pretty good run of favs, and eventually using just the favourite, it will fall over eventually, I have tried using that before. Have also tried it using the fav for a plcae, but again a bad run quickly spirals out of control. But it is all just a bit of fun for me at the moment, I know it is a pretty hard task in reality.Yes it will fall over eventually with a run of outs, you would need a stop loss set up, say if you loss 5,6 or 10 in a row whatever figure suits the individal maybe a % of your bank stop betting for the day.

With the small bank the bets aren't going to get out of hand. I did stay away from the shorter priced one's. if the shorties fall over thats when the progressive betting can spiral out of control.( doubles the next bet)

Cheers and have some fun with it.
Will try again today, will report back.

[Crackone]

Well a day that went nowhere.
Balance open $106 close $105.50

hit target 18 times
reset target 3 times after 6 consecutive loses, these loses added up to $45.43
Betting was not on all Fav. and not only for the win.

Thorns this is not the same as your first post. I could have stopped when the first 3% was made, ( four times today infront) most of the day was chasing my loses.
No damage done to the bank and there is more races tonight.:)

[Crackone]

after a few more bets tonight balance $115.50 :)

Day two open $106 close $115.50.

[thorns]

I guess another option you could use if you hit a run of outs that threatens to up the bets too much, would be to take what losses you have, and break them up into 2 or 3 different targets, and then try and recover them that way. Say you were chasing $30, break that up into three lots of ten, and try grind your way back into profit that way.

[thorns]

Wondering if anyone has any figures available, strike rates, profit/loss, for backing favs, where they are 2 or 3 dollars clear of the second favourite? Perhaps both win and place?

e.g Fav $3
2nd fav $5

I would be assuming that the bigger the gap the higher the strike rate.

[Crackone]

I guess another option you could use if you hit a run of outs that threatens to up the bets too much, would be to take what losses you have, and break them up into 2 or 3 different targets, and then try and recover them that way. Say you were chasing $30, break that up into three lots of ten, and try grind your way back into profit that way.Yes could do this. What I did was after six loses (say $30) Put this amount aside and take the next winning bet (3% ) off that $30, then start again without increasing the target until the $30 was wiped off.

I have put it in a spread sheet so it is easy to do.

Day Three
Only had the five bets today, for the first set.
Open balance $115.50 Close $121.37 ( better than the 3% due to better odds than expected) account should be 123.37 at this stage but betfair have to take there share.

Thirteen steps of that magic 24 have been taken.

[thorns]

Good results so far. Had a play with it today as well (just on paper), and cleared 4 sets, but that was a pretty good run over the space of 90 mins or so. What has been you max drawdown so far, percentage of bank wise, before you have returned to profit. Have you got behind over 50% yet? And what are your thoughts on stopping after clearing one set for the day? Originally I liked the idea, but then I sort of came to the conclusion, that if the results are going your way, you might as well plug on, as there is no difference between the next race, or the next race you start on tomorrow.

[Crackone]

What has been you max drawdown so far, percentage of bank wise, before you have returned to profit. Max drawdown about 20% of bank. Bank had increased by 30% so never in the red.

what are your thoughts on stopping after clearing one set for the day? Originally I liked the idea, but then I sort of came to the conclusion, that if the results are going your way, you might as well plug on, as there is no difference between the next race, or the next race you start on tomorrow.One set a day would be hard for me I love to bet, I can sit on the computer all day punting, some can't. Doing it the slow way (one a day) would make it last longer as it will fall over eventually. Clearing 4 ,5,6, a day will speed that process up.

My aim is to double the bank then start again. if I get to this stage I will have a safty net when and if the dreaded run of out happen.

I stoped today after one set, two reasons Don't like Sunday racing and the cricket was on.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Thorns,
You stated there is no difference betweem the first race to the last race, well there is usually a huge difference.

Example, lets say one strikes 3 winners in the first 4 races , thats a 75% SR.
Statisticly favs win approx 1-3 races out of every 8.

It is highly unlikely one will strike 3 more winners out of the next 4 races after 3 out of 4 have already got up at that meeting.

One method that works very well at securing a winning fav is target 2 venues only, betting race No.1 to race No.1
Stop betting those 2 venues once a single winner is struck.

One can now do the same thing on the day on 2 other venues for the day.
Breaking up all venues on the day in sets of 2 stopping at the first winner for each set.

It is very rare that a fav is not struck from one of these 2 venues combined.
If one were to target just one venue, the risk is much greater of a fav not getting up.

It is a strong idea not to bet any selections under $2.80 so as to try & keep the outlays under some control.

Cheers.