Lay the horse that has the jockey with the lowest win strike rate in the race.

[pengo]

G'day

Will go thru the jockey's for tomorrow's two races later tonight, but I would like to try laying as follows:

Select the horse with the jockey that has the lowest strike rate. Jockey must not be riding on 1st, 2nd or 3rd priced favourite.

Will not be "betting" as such, just selecting a horse and seeing if it results in a WIN and subsequently a losing bet for me if it was laid.

What do you think? Should there be a strike rate max? If so what do you suggest should be the highest we should go for a jockey's strike rate, 20%?

[pengo]

King, if you haven't got anything constructive to say can you kindly not post in my threads... Thanks..

Don't worry I don't take offence and do not mean offence but I don't want all my threads filled with offtopic posts :)

Cheers

[King Cugat]

hehehe.. where do we start....here......... ;)

Pengo that post on your SP fav that started 2nd fav. Give it to me once more and that will last me another few days ....

"Constructive" ... i love it.

p.s. What System #7 so soon ?? We've only just got the hang of last weeks 6 systems.

[crash]

G'day

What do you think? Should there be a strike rate max? If so what do you suggest should be the highest we should go for a jockey's strike rate, 20%?

At 20% your looking at half decent Jocks. Try 10% maybe?

[pengo]

hehehe.. where do we start....here......... ;)

Pengo that post on your SP fav that started 2nd fav. Give it to me once more and that will last me another few days ....

"Constructive" ... i love it.

p.s. What System #7 so soon ?? We've only just got the hang of last weeks 6 systems.

System #1 seems to be doing alright, so shhh you. :)

[Crackone]

At 20% your looking at half decent Jocks. Try 10% maybe?Have to agree with you crash. eg. B. Rawiller 178 winners in the last 12 months SR 18.5%

[King Cugat]

If so what do you suggest should be the highest we should go for a jockey's strike rate, 20%?The SP Fav that started 2nd fav ... abort abort abort .. this one's good enough

However permision to don a hard hard hat & enter your 'construction' site foreman Pengo?

http://www.racingnsw.com.au/page.asp?parm=ra.strikerate

Ave bottom jock on Saturdays 5-10%. Weekdays 1%

20% !!!

You didnt even think it out before you made up this system, did you Pengo
You bet against even the 4th fav as low as $8+ on betfair and take a 20% jock << you do the math this time around. How would you be laying 20's ???

---------------------------------------------

hard hat off & ........i just stole your sparky & concretor. Something about orange notes in their holiday pay & O' Health & Safety not up to scratch on the construction site / thread.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->


<!-- / sig --><!-- edit note -->

[pengo]

I'm still working the details out for this sytem, thats why I asked a question :) I have no idea what a "good" strike rate is for a jockey so, thought I'd ask those who have a clue to advise.

Based on advice, we will have to limit selections to a jockey with no more than a strike rate of 10%.

It would be interesting to see how we would go laying more than one jockey with a crap strike rate per race, you know to try and magnify our gains.

[King Cugat]

Pengo

if it was a Saturday and the lowest jock was around 10%. Forget what ranked fav they are the 10% should be in line with those odds.
If you have 100 races that jock will get up 10 times. You cant lay more then $10 - comission - profit. << & even thats if it were a perfect world and you were soley betting on that same jock every race he rides. But your not.

Then theres the fact that your manipulating statistics because your changing jockeys most races and will then have to take run of outs into consideration over more then 1 jockey. i.e. you might be jumping over from jockey to jockey to jockey who had just won previous and wont ride another one for along time to stay in touch with their own personal strike rate.
You either stick to 1 jock or it wont work. Your looking at a jocks strike rates but becuase your not betting on them every race they ride = whats the point of betting based on jockeys strike rates? << your not actually betting on that figure anyway. Your just laying another horse based on a bad jock. Its nothing more then laying a horse based on a bad barrier or bad whatever. The jocks figures are used to identify the weak link your after. Nothing more. Forget all the figures & strike rates that go with it, 1% or 10% or 20% its all irrelavent.
All you have is a system based on picking out the worse jockey in the race, who will rarely be one of the favs anyway. Its a nothing system

[pengo]

Thanks for stating the obvious....

I understand using the strike rate on different horses is bad, but then that stat is based on all his/her rides and should define their talent/ability.

The jumping from jockey is the concern I do agree, I could find that I am jumping from a jockey who didn't win only to then lose the lay as I jump to a jockey who is close to striking. Thats said if I'm only selecting jockey's based on their strike rate, then its most likely I'll be selecting the same jockey's.

Yes I am trying to identify a weak link, thats the whole point. If its a nothing jockey on a nothing horse then laying it should be profitable.

Just looking at the s/r for some vic jockeys with sub 10% S/Rs and some have made a few million in prize money.. Tho I guess they've prolly be riding for a decade heh.

[pengo]

Here are the jockey S/R that are listed as racing in R1 at Ararat tomorrow:

ARARAT (VR)
R1,
MS K L DYSON 10.8
N WILSON 8.5
B RAWILLER 18.3
MS K WALTERS 8.7
J KEATING NO STATS
S BASTER 7.4
M PAYNE 10.6
S MURPHY 11.8
D MOOR 7.8
B AVDULLA 5.6
G MURPHY 6.7

Our top 3 picks would be:
1-B AVDULLA
2-G MURPHY
3-S BASTER

I have heard at least S BASTER win while listening to the races, so will still put in a condition that the jockey not be riding on a horse that is in the top 4 sp odds. This will have to be in a field of at least 8 runners.

I'm going to test this on the results for terang today and see how many times I have to pay out.

[pengo]

Ok, for Terang, if you layed the horse with the jockey with the lowest strike rate recorded you would have had 100% success with your lays.

Top 5 worst jockey's in Vic (at least 100 rides):
(lowest to highest strike rate)
F ALESCI 3.9 (1 winner every 25.9 rides)
A MALLYON 4.2 (1 winner every 23.8 rides)
M CARSON 4.3 (1 winner every 23 rides)
MS C PULS 4.5 (1 winner every 22.3 rides)
R BOOTH 4.7 (1 winner every 21.1 rides)

[AngryPixie]

Pengo, who's the "better" rider?

Rider A: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $10 average SP all rides
Rider B: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $20 average SP all rides

Using a rider's strike rate in isolation from their chance of winning on a mount could lead you astray. Your idea has leg's though I think.

PS: Fabian Alesci won on Bombay Express at Terang didn't he? I'd double check the accuracy of those strike rate figures too if I were you.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, the strike rate needs enquiry I reckon.

One jockey may have been stuck on 25/1 shots lately and travelled to the track for one ride on a favourite.

Other jockeys may have been riding favourites and now are riding donkeys.

Lay the horse that won last start and beat the second horse which had the longest odds last start.
Back the horse which beat the horse with the shortest odds last start ;)

[Bhagwan]

Good on ya Pengo, rightly or wrongly, you are at least trying to having a go, which is more than I can say for those who enjoy the past time of trying to demean people in front of others, just to be mean, with zero positive input to take its place.
Any one can throw hand grenades from a distance & offer nothing in its place.
It's this type of behaviour that has driven people from making some postings to none.

Back to business.
Heres a method that has good SR.

.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.

[King Cugat]

Geez im glad i supplied Pengo with a strike rate chart for him to have a look at & explained the crux of his system had no meaning in regards to percentages even being irrellavent. Lets call an apple an apple here Bags in regards to the garbage that continues to be posted by Pengo << names scan be used.
he then posts " thanks fo stating the obvious " If Pengo knew the obvious then this 'system' would never had been posted nor the last 6 in a week
Taking in other peoples knowledge from day 1 when its obvious you have little idea >> i supoort 100% and if you go back on threads i spent one of my betting Saturdays nicely helping Pengo understand Betfair.
I then stood back and have watched others in here i consider genuine profit makers go to countless ends to help Pengo, and in return << hand over ears and the continue of uneducational threads flowing freely without any consideratin in taking in anything on offer.
The reason why pepole dont post is because they cant get into SEINFELD threads about nothing.
You put up solid threads that makes people think about genuine punting questions and the community will come. Yo get someone who doesnt understand the basics, wont listen and posts every 2nd thread in here then expect new googlers who come across this site to keep googling.


I will bet on #1 in every race aslong as its not the 1,2,3, fav << this system had more credit all beit the same thing!

[pengo]

Pengo, who's the "better" rider?

Rider A: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $10 average SP all rides
Rider B: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $20 average SP all rides

Using a rider's strike rate in isolation from their chance of winning on a mount could lead you astray. Your idea has leg's though I think.

PS: Fabian Alesci won on Bombay Express at Terang didn't he? I'd double check the accuracy of those strike rate figures too if I were you.

Don't know how to answer that Angry since the odds I am lead to believe is based on how good both the rider and horse is. I'll be looking at a horses form as well, the jockey just lets you narrow down the choices.

F Alesci did win, have to re-check why I didn't select his horse. Ok, its the 2nd fav so it wouldn't have been selected.

Good on ya Pengo, rightly or wrongly, you are at least trying to having a go, which is more than I can say for those who enjoy the past time of trying to demean people in front of others, just to be mean, with zero positive input to take its place.
Any one can throw hand grenades from a distance & offer nothing in its place.
It's this type of behaviour that has driven people from making some postings to none.

Back to business.
Heres a method that has good SR.

.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.

Ok, thanks for the suggestion.

Geez im glad i supplied Pengo with a strike rate chart for him to have a look at & explained the crux of his system had no meaning in regards to percentages even being irrellavent. Lets call an apple an apple here Bags in regards to the garbage that continues to be posted by Pengo << names scan be used.
he then posts " thanks fo stating the obvious " If Pengo knew the obvious then this 'system' would never had been posted nor the last 6 in a week
Taking in other peoples knowledge from day 1 when its obvious you have little idea >> i supoort 100% and if you go back on threads i spent one of my betting Saturdays nicely helping Pengo understand Betfair.
I then stood back and have watched others in here i consider genuine profit makers go to countless ends to help Pengo, and in return << hand over ears and the continue of uneducational threads flowing freely without any consideratin in taking in anything on offer.
The reason why pepole dont post is because they cant get into SEINFELD threads about nothing.
You put up solid threads that makes people think about genuine punting questions and the community will come. Yo get someone who doesnt understand the basics, wont listen and posts every 2nd thread in here then expect new googlers who come across this site to keep googling.


I will bet on #1 in every race aslong as its not the 1,2,3, fav << this system had more credit all beit the same thing!

You are entittled to your opinion and my threads maybe crap, but I'm workshopping and would think that is appreciated for people wondering what works and what doesn't.

I'm not sorry for questioning people's advice and not taking it for face value. I may or may not consider it, don't take offense if someone doesn't take your advice as gospel and instead wants to work it out for them self. Plus what fun is it, in getting everything done for you? I may come up with bad systems, but at least I am trying to come up with a simple system and I don't hide the fact I have no idea.

Rather than say, nup won't work. I know best (thats how your posts come across). How about suggest something to make the system work and improve it?

The link to nsw jockey's is appreciated, also stating the obvious remark was in relation to how I'm trying to find a weak link. Thats kinda the whole point, find the weak link on the horse and exploit it to your advantage.

At the end of the day I prefer to "see it to believe it", although if someone says X doesn't work but if you make a slight change here to "XYZ" you can have more success would be something I'd take under consideration.

[Beagle]

I don't think Pengo is trying to re-invent the wheel here. All he's doing is trying to get less punctures. ( Read EGO's ) Why some people have to be so ************ negative all the time astounds me. Good luck Pengo.

[pengo]

Thanks for the kind words Beagle.

Good on ya Pengo, rightly or wrongly, you are at least trying to having a go, which is more than I can say for those who enjoy the past time of trying to demean people in front of others, just to be mean, with zero positive input to take its place.
Any one can throw hand grenades from a distance & offer nothing in its place.
It's this type of behaviour that has driven people from making some postings to none.

Back to business.
Heres a method that has good SR.

.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.

It will be something to think about but adding trainers into the mix means more work! :) I'm trying for the simplest way with the least amount of time invested. Doesn't have to be perfect just profitable.

Still I'll look into it as once I got a table of stats, just like with the jockey's it'll soon be known who the regular bad trainer's are. Also I don't like laying favs as they do win ! :)

Your suggestion is definitely something I will consider, as I don't really want to lay horses at long odds. As I am worried about that 100-1 shot coming in, and don't expect my system to be perfect! So using what you have suggested means I can try and minimise losses as I can lay horses at more reasonable odds. Also I want to be able to lay every race, so you can make that much more! :)

[AngryPixie]

Don't know how to answer that Angry since the odds I am lead to believe is based on how good both the rider and horse is.


Yes your right although I'd give more credit to the trainer influencing the odds than the jockey. The jockey can win or lose it for you once the race has started, but the trainer can win or lose it before the horse even gets to the track. It's really about putting the right horse in the right race. A colleague of mine has a share of a smart 3yo filly that stormed home to win by 5 or 6 lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. That filly was nominated for two or three races before finding the right one. You could probably have put any of a dozen riders on her for the same result. When you see a late riding change you generally don't see a corresponding change in the odds.

My question was largely rhetorical but all things being equal I'd put my money on the rider who has shown the advantage (Rider B) over the one who's only met expectation (Rider A).

[pengo]

Yep ok, will definitely factor the trainer into too.

Will try Bhag's suggestion, since even tho it target's favs it means small odds which is what I'm ultimately after.

[stugots]

the negativity & worse expressed around here (yes i have been guilty of it on occasion, my bad) is i believe due to the inevitable frustration the punt can bring out in otherwise calm & level headed people & usually follows a particularly bad day on the punt or blue with the missus (what milk money?) & and an ale or 2 too many (or not enough!), still no excuse tho...

pengo, my 2 cents worth - to make a go of this laying caper whatever method you happen to use, i believe a max price ceiling must be adopted, laying over about $12-$16 is just asking for trouble imho, so confine your search for that weak link to nags at the short end of the market

if you must lay at longish odds then follow the suggestion in a recent thread by bhagwan (i think it was) of setting a max loss amount per lay

[pengo]

Yes your right although I'd give more credit to the trainer influencing the odds than the jockey. The jockey can win or lose it for you once the race has started, but the trainer can win or lose it before the horse even gets to the track. It's really about putting the right horse in the right race. A colleague of mine has a share of a smart 3yo filly that stormed home to win by 5 or 6 lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. That filly was nominated for two or three races before finding the right one. You could probably have put any of a dozen riders on her for the same result. When you see a late riding change you generally don't see a corresponding change in the odds.

My question was largely rhetorical but all things being equal I'd put my money on the rider who has shown the advantage (Rider B) over the one who's only met expectation (Rider A).

Where can I find trainer stats broken down by s/r at a tracks? I was using racenet to get the same for jockey's but they don't offer the same for trainers.

Could only find this http://www.racenet.com.au/HotTrainers.asp and it appears a lower strike rate is better? I think the s/r column is how many outs before a winner? There is the jockey/trainer combo on that site, too but still doesn't break it down for track or have all trainers ;(.

[pengo]

Just to prove your point Angry, check out this race.. the horse that came 2nd (unofficial) had no jockey lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwfAoFv5cpw

[pengo]

.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.



Since I can't find stats for trainers, going off track stats for jockeys and 1st or 2nd fav on betfair as suggested by Bhags.

Ararat R1:
The early fav on betfair is B RAWILLER's ride, and he has more than a 10% overall strike rate and over 15% for the track, so his horse is out. 2nd early fav is Iblits ridden by B MELHAM who has less than a 10% overall strike rate, but a 20% strike rate at the track so his ride is not a selection. Will have to wait closer to jump before making a final selection (if possible) so the odds shorten.

So as it stands no selection for race 1.

Hmm 3000 for a back for Mr Quiet (Rawiller's ride).. someone thinks its gonna win. Update: guess not, someone who took that lay is a happy man!

[King Cugat]

Pengo

Apologies.

Sales & marketing is what i know best. I would like nothing more then to have threads in here like i can find in the archives from 2005. I simply dont think thats where we're heading in regards to someone experienced coming along tomorrow and having enough quality threads to keep them interested allowing me/us to learn from them. Picking a horse & starting a thread based on a weak link is like taking the outside barrier horse as long as its not 1,2,3 fav is no different to picking a horse with the worst jockey on board. << It would never end in regards to whats next on exactly the same end thought.
This is the first time ive seen you make such an effort to reply with 'thanks for the suggestion i will use it' etc etc. Having a go as some refers to it is what i said i am 100% behind. Its all those posts that people offered to steer you on course, but you only removed your hands from your ears to type the next horse you were going to take, made it very discouraging from this end in the past. I spent a whole day with you not so long ago with Betfair. At no stage did you stop and listen to any of the posts. Your next post after mine you were trying to go 2 steps further down the track with no acknowledgement of what i was saying.
Beagle i dont care for your thoughts. Firstly take your skirt off & say the name of whom you refer to. Secondly take note of the time i & others have spent trying to help Pengo with zero thanks or aknowledgement from his end, in return only to see his next post up in 30 seconds resulting in another basic punting error that the last person just told him about. Dont get involved in matters that have more background in them then a few of the latest threads you see. I am straight up and down, and blunt if it means dodging the subject will only result in being back in the same place later on. < Some see that as rude i see it as immediate progression

No point in going further, lets leave it there Pengo. Just take in what some are saying & atleast show your taking it in. when replying instead of full steam ahead.

Ill leave you with this, good luck

http://www.virtualformguide.com/trainerpercent.shtml

you will also find better then average jockey stats there too covering odds of horses ridden each run etc etc. It may help Pengo

Pengo i just found this one aswell http://www.aapracing.com.au/strike-rates/jockey-strike-rates/warrnambool/today's/4928
you will fiond a link down the bottom for 'other tracks' i assume it will update daily ready for your next days bets.

[pengo]

Thanks King. I thought I thanked you when you helped me with Betfair and acknowledged the suggestions but chose not to use them, instead to figure it out for myself, as I was optimistic. Nonetheless, thank you advice is appreciated even if I choose to disregard it.

The reason why I think jockey's strike rate holds more weight than going based off wins from a barrier, is that well a barrier is an inanimate object that doesn't have a brain. Whereas a jockey can affect the result of a horse by making it overrun the race/fighting with the horse and so sabotaging its chances at winning.

Thanks for the links. Awesome, the AAP is cool.


Well going off my original idea for a lay system of just laying the horse with the jockey with the worst s/r under 10%, didn't win.. so a succesful lay there for Ararat R1 (11 SECRET SENSATION). No selection using Bhag's yet, but now that I got access to trainer stats thanks to King, we should be able to make a better selection using Bhag's suggestion.

[King Cugat]

....I did acknowledge the suggestions but chose not to use them, instead to figure it out for myself, ....
Perhaps thats what i was meaning to say......

Enough said on it all. Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

For what it's worth, it's not about being negative, it's about frustration - and that's why threads get a little heated.

Scenario 1 - new poster tries all avenues at once, we've all been there before I think.

Scenario 2 - existing poster has done it all before and can clearly see some basic mistakes.

Result - heated argument and frustration from both parties.

It's when you try and help someone and they disregard your help it gets quite frustrating.

It's also frustrating when you are trying things and you think people are being negative all the time.


So we simply have some quotations...

"You just can't help some people"

"Perhaps the people that you think are know alls, actually know something you don't"

The best ideas come from research, nobody buys land without researching with the council to see what happened in the past and what is probable for the future. Business moguls don't takeover companies they know nothing about.

What I'm suggesting is that one cannot post threads about various angles and not expect some negativity when others have already researched it and know the outcome is bad.

I genuinely feel that quite a few posters have helped Pengo along the way, if that's seen as negative, then it's time to stop helping.


:(

[pengo]

Ararat R2:
7 FLAWED (D YENDALL track s/r: 4.3 JAMIE EDWARDS & BR (track s/r:2)
1st fav on betfair atm. Some big bets going on to back it for a win.
9 MOS EISLEY (S MURPHY(A) track s/r:6 DARREN WEIR track s/r:6)
2nd fav on betfair atm.

I tend to favor mos eisley for the lay as the trainer has had more runners at the track than flawed's trainer and flawed's form looks the better of the two. Kinda ironic I have a horse called flawed in my selections, lol.

Oh hangon i misunderstood the s/r data, its not a percentage value but how many outs before hitting a winner, i think? So if thats the case, higher number the better.

Update: Mos Eisley won.

[crash]

Newit hadn't won at Flemington for almost 2yrs. Last Sat. his strike rate there dramatically improved, he won 2 races, or was it 3?

[pengo]

Ararat R2:
7 FLAWED (D YENDALL track s/r: 4.3 JAMIE EDWARDS & BR (track s/r:2)
1st fav on betfair atm. Some big bets going on to back it for a win.
9 MOS EISLEY (S MURPHY(A) track s/r:6 DARREN WEIR track s/r:6)
2nd fav on betfair atm.

I tend to favor mos eisley for the lay as the trainer has had more runners at the track than flawed's trainer and flawed's form looks the better of the two. Kinda ironic I have a horse called flawed in my selections, lol.

Oh hangon i misunderstood the s/r data, its not a percentage value but how many outs before hitting a winner, i think? So if thats the case, higher number the better.

Update: Mos Eisley won.

Neither of these would have been selected, as i just worked out the s/r % so i can adhere to bhag's selection criteria.

If Yendall doesn't win this race it would be interesting to see if he and the trainer win the next one. As Yendall's strike rate says he is due for a win and same too for the trainer. Either this one or the next one.

[AngryPixie]

I think Jarraconi can be beaten this race, though I'm not laying it. Just something new I'm playing with.

[pengo]

Yep, keeping score 1st. Yendall is due to win the next one, if he is to live up to his s/r for the track.

[AngryPixie]

I think Jarraconi can be beaten this race, though I'm not laying it. Just something new I'm playing with.

Mmm ok. Pushing our luck but the same play thing says Killas Mate could be a lay.

[lomaca]

Mmm ok. Pushing our luck but the same play thing says Killas Mate could be a lay.
Wish me luck I just put $50 for a place on Maple Bell

[lomaca]

Wish me luck I just put $50 for a place on Maple Bell
Missed it by '' that much.

[AngryPixie]

Bad luck Io.

[pengo]

yendall didn't win at all today heh. so much for his strike rate at the track. not enough results for him imho to get a fairer picture.

[pengo]

Ok lets prepare for tomorrow now that I got the stats and some time:

Sandown Lakeside.
Jockeys with sub 15% strike rates, worst to best.

Chris Symons
W Hernan (a)
Craig Williams
D Gauci
J Winks
C Newitt
V Duric
S W Arnold
D Dunn
D Oliver
J Benbow
G J Childs
C W Brown

Trainers with sub 15% strike rates, worst to best:

D A Hayes
B Mayfield-Smith
D T O'Brien
M J Ellerton
R E Laing
J F Moloney
D L Freedman

Interesting that Hayes doesn't do so good at Sandown! And he has fielded a lot of runners. Tho I think the problem is he runs more than one horse in the same race so no doubt that stuffs up the strike rate :-/

[pengo]

Originally Posted by Bhagwan
.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.

Sandown Lakeside

R1: 3-ESTEE, 5-JEWEL PASSPORT
C Williams & Hayes, C Brown & Freedman

[AngryPixie]

Beware the only first starter in the field. What do we know about it? The market will be all important.

[pengo]

1. Avionics is 2nd fav on betfair but got no stats for its trainer or jockey.

Estee will be the only selection.

It came 1st, lol Bhag's dont' like your system so far :).

R2: possible selections
2. Kings Farewell
5. Tszyu
6. Jeunique
7. High Intensity

What price should i be using to determining what is a betfair fav? The back or lay price? I've been going the lay price since thats what you'd take to get a matched lay easily.

If we ending up laying a winner again, I'm thinking of giving up on ya system, as I don't have enough stats to make good selections.

Might resort back to my original system of just a overall jockey strike rate, as when I tested it on a few meets it was profitable. Unfortunately will be laying horses at high odds, so will have to figure out a limit.

Update: yeah gonna scrap your system Bhags as I just don't have access to the sort of data you have. Sorry, but I need a system that works with what data is freely available to me.

[Bhagwan]

The race data is freely available from racingandsports

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to mention one of the other rules...

.Must have 11 runners+

[pengo]

The race data is freely available from racingandsports

Yeah I tried there but it shows me no stats:

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rstop20.asp?t20=TwnA

This shows stats:
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rstop20.asp?action=tpremier

But again, doesn't list PER TRACK data, which is needed to make a selection with your suggested system.

Can you provide us with a link to the page that has the stats Bhags? Do you need to create a login or something?

[Crackone]

pengo do a google search for race stats third one on the list will give you the info.

[pengo]

pengo do a google search for race stats third one on the list will give you the info.

Doesn't have trainer stats per track :(

[AngryPixie]

Who was the most successful rider at Sandown today? I've taken the SuperTAB prices for all the mounts of today's winning riders, converted these to a normalised percentage chance, then combined these to get the riders expected number of winners. Obviously Steven Arnold had a nice day with 2 winners, but how much better was it than the other winning riders? Well quite a bit, in fact he rode 513% more winners than the normalised SuperTAB price of his mounts would suggest. Dean Yendall was the most successful of the riders with a single win, and Cory Brown failed to reach his expected number of winners but only by a little bit.


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 240pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=320 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 96pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4681" width=128><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #dcd9df; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 96pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcd9df; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #002060" width=128 height=20>Rider</TD><TD class=xl64 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #dcd9df; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dcd9df; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcd9df; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #002060" width=64>OBS</TD><TD class=xl64 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #dcd9df; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dcd9df; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcd9df; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #002060" width=64>EXP</TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dcd9df; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dcd9df; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #002060" width=64>ADV</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Arnold, S</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">2</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">0.326</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">513%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Brown, C</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1.274</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">-21%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Hall, N</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">0.507</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">97%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Newitt, C</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">0.882</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">13%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Williams, C</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">0.750</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">33%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>Yendall, D</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">0.324</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">209%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Naturally one days results mean nothing really but I thought this might be an interesting way of comparing who's "better" than who.

[Bhagwan]

Pengo, its all there, you just have to know where to look , you just go to a venue , then click Jockey stats on LHS same for Trainer stats .
It has an active search mode below just for Crs percentages by clicking the bullet hole needed & away you go.


Example.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/jockey.asp?sortpage=1

[pengo]

Thanks Bhags, but that link just shows me the main page

How do I bring up the details for a venue?

nevermind, found it


Goto Free Daily stats on the lhs, and then select a meet then down on the bottom there is a link to Jocky/Trainer strike rates.

Example:
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/pickmeet.asp

Select a meet and taken to its page:

So I select for example Eagle Farm: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/setmeet.asp?file=EFM0802&long=Eagle+Farm+8+February
On the bottom of that page is a link to jockey/trainer strike rates:

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/meetmainSr.asp?race=1

Excellent! :)

[Dancing Sun]

what is the strike rate for favs at both Canterbury and Moonee Valley night meetings

[Bhagwan]

Look up racingandsports , it's all there for favs SR at that track.

Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

... A colleague of mine has a share of a smart 3yo filly that stormed home to win by 5 or 6 lengths at Flemington on Cup Day ...
Fat and needs the run.

[AngryPixie]

Lay of the day :D