if only we knew which 70% eh?

[stugots]

if only we knew which 70% eh?

quoting you from the other thread party, hope you dont mind, thought the subject of how those here attack any given day might be worth its own thread.

i have a couple of different methods i use to select both win & lay bets, both methods require betting at around the jump & are "proven" (i use that term with caution) over in excess of 2000 races over the last couple of years

ive found ive just got to crunch all selections that the methods throw up, if i set a target for the day & stop this seems to result in reduced profit longterm, albeit at a higher pot

just wondering what approach others may use?

[partypooper]

G'day stugots, at this moment I can't figure out where I said that BUT, you are 100% correct, it's a close call alright, i.e. do you BACK the 70% or lay the 30%, hahahah, the $64,000 question? so to speak, in my case it's easy as being in WA I can't get Betfair anyway. so there you go!

As I've managed to come out on the right side of the ledger (so far) I will carry on.

Godd luck,

[Shaun]

I have to admit it makes our job a bit easier being in WA we just have to decide where to bet, bookies or Tab

[thorns]

either of you care to elaborate on what you are on about? :)

[Shaun]

The WA government has banned betfair here, we have had our accounts restricted we can see our accounts and withdraw the funds but can't place a bet.

[thorns]

i was referring to the "if only we knew which 70%" :)

[partypooper]

Thorns what I was saying is that although I know that method has a 70% S/R, I (and everone else) doesn't know which 70% of course.

[stugots]

sort of what i was on about party, but to give an example of a typical day -

i identify 16 potential lays for the day
after 8 races ive layed 5 that have lost & passed on 3 races

so im up 5 units, which is what i could be more than happy with for the day

but theres still 8 possible money making opportunities left, so do i stay or do i go?

at present i stay, simply to keep turnover up & to cash in on those days where almost everything goes my way

just wondering what others do?

[partypooper]

stugots, although I've "made a book" many times at the track, I haven't had the experience that you have , simply because we can't use Betfair here in WA, so your scenario is hard to comment on, but I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned "turnover".
Though on the human level it is ************ frustrating when you stick around and a winning day turns bad.

[stugots]

yeh, hitting that $8 winner with the last lay of the day does suck

laying, win place betting whatever, its all the same imho with regards to how one manages his/her betting on any given day

often hear people remark that they stop once a target is reached for teh day, is that a strategy that most here would agree with?

[Grand Armee]

stugots there's no sense in stopping when in front. If a method works, you have to keep betting as many times as possible to give it it's chance to win, and to take advantage of it.

The selections themselves don't know that 5 in a row have won/lost before them, it doesn't affect their performance, so why stop? If the method works, and you stop betting midway through, for whatever reason, in the end you'll cost yourself $$$.

[TWOBETS]

I agree totally GA, and while I personally bet on every qualifying race to maximise my participation, I can also understand why a bod might retire for the day if he's well ahead : particularly if he's (she's) a lay bettor.
It would seem like such a waste of a day if you had to go to bed out of pocket after putting in all that graft and at one stage being cash flash.
Just a thought.

[partypooper]

in my case I don't think in terms of a day, a week ,a month, or even a year, it's just one continous scenario now, after a few thousand bets even a horror run hardly causes a ripple in the overall picture, but this sort of patience did not come easy. In fact I have one plan that counts 10 consecutive bets as "ONE BET IN THE SEQUENCE" and the next ten as the 2nd and so on. the idea (and it works) is to spread the risk out as far as possible.

[stugots]

grand armee, thanks & i totally agree, guess im trying to validate my current approach

party, your comment "I don't think in terms of a day, a week ,a month, or even a year, it's just one continous scenario now" is the type of thinking after, find it difficult tho not to treat each day/week as an individual, which of course they are not

might stick that comment to the top of my monitor!:)

[partypooper]

Stugots, if I've got just one person to think along those lines, I know I have acheived something on this forum!

Even though, many people would have (and did say) that I had some sort of amazing talent with the horses, the truth was that I was LOSING in the long term, this only changed about 5-6 years ago when I began to think in a different way , you know why; when I am right so often am I still losing? slowly I have turned it around after taking in some bookmakers comment that I heard once, i.e. "the average punter goes to the Course with $100 and EXPECTS to win $1000," whereas the average Bookie goes to the Course with $1000 and EXPECTS/HOPES to win $100

This is IT, get real and you can win, BUT slowly.............................

[Mark]

Stugots, if I've got just one person to think along those lines, I know I have acheived something on this forum!

Even though, many people would have (and did say) that I had some sort of amazing talent with the horses, the truth was that I was LOSING in the long term, this only changed about 5-6 years ago when I began to think in a different way , you know why; when I am right so often am I still losing? slowly I have turned it around after taking in some bookmakers comment that I heard once, i.e. "the average punter goes to the Course with $100 and EXPECTS to win $1000," whereas the average Bookie goes to the Course with $1000 and EXPECTS/HOPES to win $100

This is IT, get real and you can win, BUT slowly.............................

You've cracked it party............that's the "secret" I've been using for years. Friends would ask me how much I won today, when the answer was only $5, $10, $20 $30 etc, they would laugh, if they'd won $100, $200, $300. But the last laugh goes to the person who is making that little bit, EVERY DAY.

[Racer]

"the average punter goes to the Course with $100 and EXPECTS to win $1000," whereas the average Bookie goes to the Course with $1000 and EXPECTS/HOPES to win $100



Yes party. it's a pity punters don't kick around PERCENTAGES a bit more often
to get the hang of 'money management'.

Leaving $1,000 in the bank for 'ONE YEAR' at today's interest rates of
approx.' 7% per annum ' will increase their wealth (albeit relatively safely)
by $70 for the YEAR.

Placing a $20 win bet on an 'even money' shot that manages to win
gets them a 100% wealth increase in two or three minutes.

[syllabus23]

Unfortunately the 100% interest is not a one-off investment.It's the reinvestment that brings most punters unstuck.

I do however agree totally with the thrust of this thread,although it is against the get-rich quick philosophy of the majority of punters.I guess it's difficult to stop behaving like human beings.

Take a look in any large club,there are always dozens of people looking for "the big drop" Bingo,Hoy,Keno,Pokies.

I live in an area where a large part of the population is dependent on social welfare payments.If it wasn't for these disadvantaged and desperate people the local clubs would be bankrupt.Yet there are ongoing "promotions" encouraging people to gamble away the money that is meant to be feeding,educating and clothing their children.

The racing industry is little different.Not much morality when it comes to the mighty $$$$$$

[Dennis G]

......I can also understand why a bod might retire for the day if he's well ahead : particularly if he's (she's) a lay bettor.
It would seem like such a waste of a day if you had to go to bed out of pocket after putting in all that graft and at one stage being cash flash.
Just a thought.TWOBETS,
racing doesn't stop just because you 'call it a day'. Who's to say that tomorrow will bring more success than the rest of today's meetings? I understand "It would seem like such a waste of a day if you had to go to bed out of pocket....", but would it not be just as annoying watching potential collects continue after you shut up shop for the day only to watch tomorrow become a disaster?

Rgds,
Den

[stugots]

thanks for all the replies, duno of if ive quite seen the light yet, but theres a flicker off in the distance

party, dont want you to disclose any trade secrets, but would you mind advising what sort of POT you manage to achieve

[partypooper]

Stugots, I have one main place betting strategy, which I call my "bread and butter" this appears to have leveled out at 4% on T/O.

I also muck around with several other place plans using very aggressive staking, after decucting the losing banks this is doing a lot better, but I wouldn't like to claim it can continue forever.

I also have 2 win betting things on the go (4 years now) these are both in profit at around 9%. again, I do not claim that what has happened in the past will continue in the future, I think it will but who knows?

When I read about these amazing claims of massive POTS, just makes me smile.

There is more than one way to skin a rabbit, and I envy the blokes who can make the game pay by laying etc, or others that just have an incredible knowledge of Horses, in my case it is basically mechanical, but I do believe that I have stamped my own way of spreading the risk, with my method of staking.

[stugots]

thanks for the insight party,

ive been managing returns at around 20% for sometime now, but this figure is slowly but surely dropping which has/does give me the jitters even though i know that 20%, let alone 10%, longterm is probably just a pipedream,

[TWOBETS]

Agree totally DG, which is why I treat every qualifying race with the attention it deserves wherever I might be on the + or - scale for the day. My only concern is SR over an extended (years and freaking years) period. Cheers.