3 favs in a row?

[NANOOK]

Hi All

Could someone please tell me the probability of 3 or more favs winning in a row betting race to race and paying over $2. Is there a math formula to work things like this out. So far this month up to the 17th I've counted 11 times, all races.

I'd appreciate anyones knowlege on this.

cheers

[sye]

Hi All

Could someone please tell me the probability of 3 or more favs winning in a row betting race to race and paying over $2. Is there a math formula to work things like this out. So far this month up to the 17th I've counted 11 times, all races.

I'd appreciate anyones knowlege on this.

cheers

The TAB extracts 15% profit on turnover for each race - which means it pays you $8.50 when the untaxed dividend should be $10.

Let's assume that over thousands of races the untaxed dividend reflects the true probability of a horse's winning chance.

An untaxed dividend of $2 represents a 50% winning chance - but a TAB divvy of $2 would be about $2.25 if untaxed. This represents a true chance of about 44%.

The odds, therefore, of three $2 shots winning = .44 x .44 x .44.
That's about 8.5% (.085) or 1 in 12.

If you use the $2 dividend and ignore the pool deduction, then that probability is .5 x .5 x .5 = .125 or 1 in 8.

[Silver_and_sand]

G'day Nanook. As a rule of thumb, favourites win roughly 30% of the time. That being the case, 3 favourites winning in a row would occur roughly 3% of the time (0.3 x 0.3 x 0.3 = 0.027).

[jfc]

I suspect the real question is something like how likely is it for 3 favourites in a row to win at a meeting.

By my calculations for an 8 race card, and a 30% chance of a favourite winning, the probability is 12%.

For true even money shots the chance is 42%.

This is not that hard to work out with a spreadsheet.

In the 1st case, 30% of your live samples are projected right, whereas 70% project back to square zero (aka column A).

Obviously the samples that make the run of 3 play no further part in the process.

[Chrome Prince]

It will vary depending on the price of the horses and the size of the field.

[NANOOK]

Thanks for your replies everyone.
An example of what I mean occured Mon 18th(using vic tab fav)
Wellington R4 No5 Brisk Crown $2.60 next race
Cessnock R6 No1 Main Game $3.20 next race
Horsham R6 No5 Three Kings $2.80

3 winners in a row. This sequence has occured 11 times up to the 17th of this month from about 646 favs. I suspect its as chrome said.

Chrome or jfc I would like to discuss this further with regards to an ill thought out staking plan, let me know on this thread if your interested.

cheers

[Bhagwan]

I have seen a number of days recently where up to 8 in a row get up one loss then 5 in a row favs get up to win .
Betting venue to venue in chronological order . Weird

Very frustrating if one is counting on them to lose especially if one is lay betting , one would be asking when the nightmare is going to finish.

I am amased how many get up one after the other, if the maths is correct ,say on 5 in s row getting up is .24% or one chance in 417 bets it sure does not feel like that if one is laying them to lose.

Cheers.