Can't lose system ???

[Crackone]

Been thinking of this for awhile now, is it possible to back every horse in a race and still win in the long run? I'm not talking about dutch betting, betting the same amount on every horse.

We now that 1st Fav win 33% of races with a return of 94% you would need to back the Fav at 7% higher odds to be in front.

Same for 2nd Fav 20% win return of 89% so you would need 12% better odds to come out in front.

and so on right down to the longest odds. so in theory you should win on every runner.
Would this work???

[lomaca]

Been thinking of this for awhile now, is it possible to back every horse in a race and still win in the long run? I'm not talking about dutch betting, betting the same amount on every horse.

We now that 1st Fav win 33% of races with a return of 94% you would need to back the Fav at 7% higher odds to be in front.

Same for 2nd Fav 20% win return of 89% so you would need 12% better odds to come out in front.

and so on right down to the longest odds. so in theory you should win on every runner.
Would this work???

All things being equal, that is, every horse paid the odds according to it's true chances <b>AND NO TAB TAKEOUT</b> of course it would work, but only as far as you would get your money back!
But are all things equal?

[Chrome Prince]

As Iomaca says, it's the takeout that gets you or commission, otherwise you break even.
But if you have the same stakes on every runner, you're going to lose more often until a longshot comes in, because the number of runners is greater than the odds of the fancied horses.

[partypooper]

Of course the point is that you don't have to bet every horse in the race , not rocket science I know but for the benefit of those that don't, just narrow the field down to say 5 by your own (proven ratings) or others, and always bet every horse ONLY when the odds available are greater than the rated odds, by a margin that you set and correct through practice say, 20%,30% or whatever, maybe even 100% (double overlay) so no matter what happens in a particular race you have to win (long term) there! doesn't that sound easy? hehehee!

[crash]

Sound more like the 'willl lose' system !

[partypooper]

Crash, is it not true that "IF" the ratings over time have proven to say break even, then if you only back the overlays you HAVE to win? it's like getting 5-4 permanently about black/red isn't it even counting in the zero? i.e. 1000 spins, = 500 x 5-4 - 28 (zeros i.e. 1 in 35) = 97 Profit (about 10%)

[Crackone]

Of course the point is that you don't have to bet every horse in the race , not rocket science I know but for the benefit of those that don't, just narrow the field down to say 5 by your own (proven ratings) or others, and always bet every horse ONLY when the odds available are greater than the rated odds, by a margin that you set and correct through practice say, 20%,30% or whatever, maybe even 100% (double overlay) so no matter what happens in a particular race you have to win (long term) there! doesn't that sound easy? hehehee!The problem is if you don't get your 10% 20% over and you dont back that horse odds are it will win. You would have to now what % of horses win/lose that are not traded (going by betfair odds) above the price you think it will pay.(rated price maybe)

[Chrome Prince]

The problem is if you don't get your 10% 20% over and you dont back that horse odds are it will win. You would have to now what % of horses win/lose that are not traded (going by betfair odds) above the price you think it will pay.

Spot on!
Something not many have properly investigated.

[partypooper]

Crackone, nah, you've missed it completely, you are thinking in terms of 1 race.
Go to my example of 1000 spins, or even 10,000 spins, if you only bet when you have 5-4, say 1000 times out of that 10,000 spins (on an even money chance) YOU WILL WIN.

What you are doing here is reversing "what the bookie" does really, he/she dose not think in terms of today, tomorrow, next week, next year even, if the mathematical odds are in his/her favour it is DEFINITE that the book will come out in front, no luck involved!

In the same way that the casino will give you evens about black or Red, odds or even, but that little ol' zero GUARANTEES the edge for the house in the long run!

[Chrome Prince]

Hi partypooper,

I think what crackone is getting at is, horses are quite different to fixed odds on a table game. There are no variables in a standard table game, odds aren't shifting (except of course card counting and card games in general) but all wheel based games, the odds are firm.
With horses, there are so many variables, that the ratings may be more accurate sometimes than others, they might be overall very accurate, but when other factors are encountered they are not.
Therefore, just backing overs, might not be profitable,as the weight of money on some selections indicate more than is revealed in the form or ratings.
You might look at all favourites for example and back only those that you can get a decent price on, BUT you may only get a decent overlay, because there is no support for it, and no support means you need at least 40% overlay to make money, 10% or 20% won't cut it.

[AngryPixie]

Not to mention that only backing the overs has a significant effect on your strike rate.

[crash]

Crash, is it not true that "IF" the ratings over time have proven to say break even, then if you only back the overlays you HAVE to win? it's like getting 5-4 permanently about black/red isn't it even counting in the zero? i.e. 1000 spins, = 500 x 5-4 - 28 (zeros i.e. 1 in 35) = 97 Profit (about 10%)

One man's overs is another man's unders!

A bookie [or the TAB] comes out in front in the long run, not because he is playing unders and overs on particular horses, but because of his book over 100% for each race. They play a race, not a horse. Applied to the racetrack, they own the Casino 'zero' that Party mentioned ... the Edge and that's the only overlay we can ever be sure of.

[partypooper]

Hi Chrome, well, what I didn't say is that no -one will give you 5-4 on black or red will they? it's only BECAUSE of those variables in a horse race that we are able to get overs at all.

Crash, I agree one mans overs is another mans unders. I've always questioned when I read "shorteners" is the way to go, followed by "you must get VALUE" Huh?

But what we are talking about is that "one Man" is a good enough judge to at least break even backing his top 5 ratings regardless, so THEN only back overs, there is a difference there.

Hey I'm not advocating that everyone does this it's not my cup of tea spending half me life travelling to the racetrack and back everyday etc etc . I'm just throwing ideas around.

Another thing to consider is that there are % bookies and there are "opinion" bookies. Mixed in with that as you mentioned they have to BALANCE their books to keep that "edge" whilst one is offering 6-4 about No1 (cos he's taken enough on it) another is offering 15-8 cos he hasn't got enough on it, OR maybe he just doesn't fancy it, this is where there is a tiny window of opportunity.

But Crash you were the man that told me I had to get overs on my place bets, something that I took to heart, though the fixed odds bit I'm not sure about, I feel more comfortable with best tote! (leaving things till the last 15 seconds or so)

If there are any bookies reading this, it would be interesting to hear if we're close or a thousand miles off.

[crash]

Yep Party, I did tell you you had to get overs on your bets, but I'm sure as heck I never told you how to recognize them!

[Chrome Prince]

I've always questioned when I read "shorteners" is the way to go, followed by "you must get VALUE" Huh?


Yes, Partypooper.

If you were to get the opening price on shorteners and back them you'd make a lot of money.
If you were to lay the drifters at opening quote you'd make a lot of money.
If you were to back drifters that drifted over 40%, you'd make money.
In all that, strike rate is improved or declines dramatically.
The only losing scenario (longterm) is taking the final price on steamers or taking the opening price on drifters.

Yep, that's all good, but how to get on or know what's going to happen?

I've been successfully using the conditional bets option of a bot to flag steamers and drifters and back or lay depending on initial movement of x percent or x ticks.
This only works on liquid markets such as the UK.

But work it does ...... brilliantly.

Last night
laid a horse at $4.90 and it jumped at $6.00
laid a horse at $1.89 and it jumped at $2.04
laid a horse at $3.50 and it jumped at $4.20

Backed a horse at $1.98 and it jumped at $1.64
Backed a horse at $3.75 and it jumped at $2.82

I copped two or three where the movement rebounded, so the bot was wrong, but the overs and unders more than compensated.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Partypooper.

Would have to agree 100 % with you.

My favorite way to bet ( 4 - 5 in the 1 race )

To my way of thinking if there are 4 chances in the race then commonsense would tell you the MINIMUM acceptable price i.e 4 horses = $5 and 5 horses = $6.

Long term ( and thats what racing is all about ) You MUST win .

Cheers.
darky.

[partypooper]

Chrome, I've always valued your opinion as you know. The only way I can see of backing shorteners is to stipulate a minimum price, i.e. $100 win X @ Top Fluc, minimum price accepted = 2-1 (or whatever) problem is I don't know how long the bookie would take your bets? and of course you could just as easily be backing drifters.

It's a pity theres no Betfair here in WA though, so many more options..... maybe one day!

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry Partypooper I was talking about Betfair.

I have a bot that automates things so I crunch in on a horse when moves x percentage.
If it rebounds it will trigger a stop loss.
Only works on UK or Saturday Aus races, the rest it won't work on because the prices jump all over the place too much as everyone plays cat and mouse and end up in the same spot anyway.

[YoungBuck]

Hi Chrome,

Been keen on using the conditional betting with Betting assistant and would appreciate some help for a novice in this area.

Can you set your conditions to kick in only at a certain time frame, ie 1 minute before the off? Something along those lines.

Thanks in advance.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chrome,

Been keen on using the conditional betting with Betting assistant and would appreciate some help for a novice in this area.

Can you set your conditions to kick in only at a certain time frame, ie 1 minute before the off? Something along those lines.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Youngbuck,

Conditional betting has to be price sensitive, not time sensitive.
There are a few drawbacks though, especially with this new charge for API calls.
You also need to have the program running and updating for it to work, and you need to have the market active on a page.

Effectively if you're doing 10 races, you need them all open on a page updating with the conditions set to trigger.

Very intensive and going to be costly stuff.

You need to have a distinct edge and be turning over enough money to negate the API charges and internet excess download charges.

I'm currently investigating alternatives to cut down costs, not alternatives to the program, but alternate ways to set it up.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks for the reply Chrome, might have to explore other options.

[AngryPixie]

I've been successfully using the conditional bets option of a bot to flag steamers and drifters and back or lay depending on initial movement of x percent or x ticks.
This only works on liquid markets such as the UK.

But work it does ...... brilliantly.
Indeed. If you've an opinion on a runner you can achieve a similar thing with a "keep in-running" bet. From last night:

Lay WOLV 2:20 Sand Repeal @ $4.00 (SP 4/1)
Lay WOLV 5:20 One Called Alice @ $5.70 (SP 12/1)
Lay STRAT 5:30 Sunsetten @ $4.50 (SP 8/1)

[Crackone]

OK so we only bet the first 1-4 in the market.
Have to have the best ratings going around.
Able to recognize drifter and streamers.
Get the appropriate % increase in dividends for the drifters and streamers.

Its all to easy :)

[Chrome Prince]

Youngbuck,

Try BetTraderPro from Adam at racingtraders.
1. use the free grid interface
2. you can specify a time and price with the global options for bet placement
3. you can close the program without losing the triggers for any amount of races.

Problem solved :D

[schonegg]

I use BetTrader as well, provides lots of options. Give it a go Youngbuck.

[YoungBuck]

Thanks Chrome/schonegg, had a quick look and it seems that will do it.

Appreciate the help.

[Chrome Prince]

Ugh, sorry Youngbuck, the bets disappears unless they are normal unmatched lay bets, so you need to keep the application open.

Surely someone has a program that will fire a bet with the application not chewing internet connection.

Sorry I mislead you, but it worked until i got back into it :(

[YoungBuck]

No worries, it is interesting to look at their tutorials etc. and get some new angles on things anyway. I am sure i will stumble across something or just get a great deal on unlimited internet downloads!!

[Bhagwan]

Hi Chrome,
You may like to check out Fairbot.

Just been up dated.
It now has a very user friendly, one click button to keep the bet alive for UK racing & it is very economical to run.

Bet Trader Pro is good, but it sure sucks up the juice

I have been using Fairbot & its brilliant.
You can close ones whole system down if one wishes to & it will keep the bet alive for in running prices to match up.

One can even cancell the unmatched bet while in running as well.

Cheers.