Raw Speed

[meggabit]

I have noticed most posts the forum if not all do not take into account Race speed and track condition, very important factors, my ratings are based on this. I totally discount barriers, weight, top jocks or must have won etc etc . I challange anyone on the forum including propun to disput this. The challage is my ratings against everyone else on this forum.

[wesmip1]

Meggabit,

Looks like you are looking for a ratings competition.
Its a lot of work posting ratings for every race but if your up for it then you should post your ratings for everyone to see before the races start each day.

I am more than happy to then run the figures and see how they go against other ratings.

Good Luck.

[crash]

Meggabit,

I'm not sure what you mean by 'race speed'. The speed of a race is only known after the race. Do you mean expected pace or time form ?

[meggabit]

Hi Wesmip1

Great Idea a Ratings Comp. At this stage ratings will be provided for Sat only and for Syd, Melb, Adel and Bris. Ratings will be posted Sat morning at about 9.00am.what do you think.

[meggabit]

Hi Crash

Raw speed is analized for the previous distance run,a regression formula is applied to the previous distance and time then hopfully a prediction is made on todays distance and expected Speed for each horse, therefore a rating is produced. Hope this was helpfull.

[crash]

Good luck with it. I tried that method for about 5yrs. with mixed results. Works best with sprint races from 1000m to 1100m with fields of more than 7 horses [10 to 14 ideal].

The big problem in evaluating race times for races 1200m and over is race pace. Next run for any horse might be a slowly run race or truly run race. That's going to depend on the make up of the field. Take the Orr [G1]. The first 4 in r1 on that day all ran faster times than the winner of the G1. Pace can make times a bit meaningless except in short sprints where the foots on the accelerator from the jump.
Time becomes a bit of problem as an indicator of performance if a race isn't truly run [70% of races not truly run, would be a good guess for Eastern States]. WA seems to have the most truly run races [within 2sec of race record].

Anyhow, good luck with it.

[Racer]

hopfully a prediction is made on todays distance and expected Speed for each horse, therefore a rating is produced.

I have not seen this for 55 years (everything else but) - Each week my brother would get
" The Handicap Book " and it had a 'that era' kind of 'printed' Forum for
punters ideas - One day this 'System' was printed and as usual my brother and I checked it out because we also got a 'results' book every month
and so we could go backwards checking it - Each runner was given a
'SF' (speed figure) which you were informed how to go about obtaining -

Well it turned out to be the most brilliant 'System' that had ever been on the printed Forum but, but, it THEN went brilliantly for just another
6 weeks and hit the skids - We were already quite paranoid re. any good system on the Forum because the ones that looked good quickly SEEMED to have a happy knack
of going bad soon after appearing in the handicap book Forum - ( Like the racing authorities had some little boffin also checking the systems and if any looked good .... Bwahahaha .... oh we were paranoid about it believe me.)

It was all made worse by my dad (a bookie) continually reminding us both via,
"Just make sure you both only bet with me, because you don't have a hope in hell of beating the book, capiche ".

So I am hoping meggabit does as well via his work as that cove in the handicap book did way back then, and with a bit of luck has a bookie father -
just in case our paranoia was not totally unfounded.

[wesmip1]

The results are in :

I did all 4 tracks which Megabitt posted for Saturday and took the top rater after scratchings for each race. I then compared it to two free ratings systems ( no prizes for guessing which ones ).

The results are :

Meggabit ratings :
Selections : 34
Money in : $12 (loss of $22)

Rating System 1 :
Selections : 34
Money in : $24 (loss of $10)

Rating System 2 :
Selections : 34
Money in : $38(profit of $4)

I also did a quick look at the strike rates. I gave scores as 3=win, 2=second, 1=third.

Meggabit ratings : 29
Rating System 1 : 36
Rating System 2 : 40

Unfortunately Meggabit is losing the challenge at this point in time....

Maybe next week will be better....

Good Luck