new system ideas

[Silver_and_sand]

It seems that in general those horses carrying the least weight (ignoring apprentice claims) pay more than the top weights. And also the horses that draw the wider barriers pay more than those with the inside barriers. IMO, weights and barrier draws are overrated, but that they still influence many punters bets, so hopefully that translates into some potential value bets.

Could someone with a database run a test for me for both the win and the place?

Saturday Metro tracks only.
Good and Dead tracks only.
Ignore 2yo, maidens and jump races.
Only consider those horses carrying the least weight in each race (ignore apprentice claims).
Of the remaining horses, only consider the one with the widest barrier.

[crash]

Min. weight horses often come in at good prices. I find that it happens more at mid-week races than Sat. races though. Possibly because Sat. metro horses handle weight rises better than mid-week class.

[Silver_and_sand]

Saturday 22/03/08 Results

BR1 #8 2nd $6.80
BR3 #6 Rhymenoreason UNP
BR4 #14 Embracing 3rd $16.80
BR5 #12 Prend UNP
BR6 #10 Finder Page 3rd $6.2
BR7 #8 Bold Reason 3rd $4.10
BR8 #19 Whispering Gypsy UNP
SR1 #7 Guru 3rd NTD
SR2 #11 Little Sai Wan 2nd $4.40
SR4 #5 Mimi Lebrock 3rd $2.00
SR5 #10 Twin Wing UNP
SR6 #13 Gamble Me UNP
SR7 #9 Guillotine UNP
SR8 #13 Lantwin UNP
SR9 #10 Grey Stream UNP
MR2 #8 Frisco Jess UNP
MR3 #8 Able Dragon 1st $29.70/$6.20
MR4 #8 On a Promise UNP
MR5 #7 Come FLy With Me 3rd $2.80
MR6 #14 Senorita de Lago UNP
MR7 #8 Dance on Air 2nd $2.40
MR8 #12 Hike UNP

Win
Out: $22.00
In: $29.70
+$7.70

Place
Out: $22.00
In: $51.70
+$29.70

With an average dividend of around $5.00 for the place and a healthy place strike rate, it looks like this might have some potential as a place system.

[crash]

I'd be interested how the system pans out mid-week as a comparison.

[michaelg]

Crash, by my reckoning today's qualifiers are:

Scone
R3 no.9
R9 no.13
R10 no.14

Moe
R5 no.8
R6 no.8
R7 no.10
R8 no.10

As a matter of interest, I have been betting Duets and also Place using multiple selections (half of the field). Some of the divvies have been quite large especially when the higher TAB numbers happen to place. The largest Place divvy to date has been $17.

[crash]

My idea would be to ignore barriers and only back mid-week horses at min. weight 3rd. or 4th up. good or dead tracks.

[crash]

My idea would be to ignore barriers and only back mid-week horses at min. weight 3rd. or 4th up. good or dead tracks.
*rule out anything over 50/1

Moe
3/9,12 [9 $1.60p]
Scone
3/9 x
5/7 x
7/11 x
8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p]
10/13 ?

[crash]

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
8/10
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p

[Bhagwan]

I ran the widest barrier idea over several hundred races & found it worked very well in races with....

. Field size 8-12 runners.

.Targeting the bottom 3 horses in the list of runners.

. Selection is the widest barrier of the 3 runners.

. Bet for a place only.

Try & only bet if $3+ can be had at jump time.

It could work well if the Betfair SP service gets up & running, that way all bets could be place at once with a min value attached to the bet to be placed.

On the figures I ran through, I came up with this betting 1% of bank.
SR 20%
POT 20%

Some of the divs are quite amazing e.g. $17.00, $23.00

Cheers.

[Silver_and_sand]

Thanks Bhagwan for your time in playing around with those ideas and running them through your database. The reason I like the idea of wide barrier draws, is because you would think that it would give the jockey the best opportunity to try to position the horse where he/she thinks it will perform best from. For instance, it might be a bit harder to get your horse to settle back early so that it can make a strong finish if it's drawn in the middle, where it's first instinct will likely be to keep up with or outperform the horse either side of it. The same horse drawn wider, shouldn't feel as much pressure. Just a theory. Regardless, it looks like we've found some value bets. Thanks again for your efforts Bhagwan.

Thanks for your suggestions too Crash. Food for thought.

[crash]

The outside barrier or even the inside No1 barrier can be a blessing or equally a curse, depending on the course, distance and field size. The pace style of the horse in an outside [or inside] barrier will also be influenced by the pace style of the rest of the field. Very, very few horses ever are equally good front runners, mid-pacers or backmarkers. They either get a race to suit at the right time, pace and barrier to suit and condt. to suit, or they lose.

Any system based on barrier [any], will naturally throw up winners as at least some horses the system choses are going to suit the barrier, course and distance etc. for that particular race. The 'edge' for the outside barrier is the slightly better prices.

[Nigel]

Bhagwan, were your results taken for Metro meetings over Good and Dead tracks, ignoring 2yo, maidens and jump races, or were you looking at the bottom three horses in other races as well?

[crash]

Forget the suggestions,this is looking like a good winning system!

*rule out anything over 50/1

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
8/10
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p
------------------------------------
Moe
3/9,12 [9 $1.60p]
Scone
3/9 x
5/7 x
7/11 x
8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p]
10/13
-----------------------------------
GOSFORD
1/5 x
5/8,9 x
6/9 x
7/14,15 [14w $14.50w $3p]
KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 ? [still to run]
7/14 ? [still to run]
TOWNSVILLE
3/6 x
5/8 x
8/12 x
------------------------------------

Rules were:
3rd or 4th up
min. Weight
Ignore barriers
Ignore more than 50/1
------------------------------------

Doing very well indeed for a win system!

[crash]

KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 [2.30p]
7/14 [over 50/1]

[Bhagwan]

Hi Nigel,
I ran the idea over everything regardless of track conditions, class or day of the week.

One will experiience say 20 outs in a row at times then hit several big payers, one after the other.

Cheers.

[Nigel]

Thanks Bhagwan.

I had a brief look at this but when I got to a run of 26 outs I lost interest. Can it be 'tweaked' in any way?

Your time and effort is much appreciated.

Cheers,
Nigel

[Privateer]

Nice to see you guys starting to see the benefit of stats analysis. Only been what, 6 years now? since I first mentioned the lack of importance of barrier positions in the overall scheme of successful punting right here. Keep it up fellas, you'll get it in the end.

[crash]

Dropped in to do a bit of slumming have you mate?

[Bhagwan]

I'm not sure what is ment by "you will get it in the end"
Now I'm afraid... very afraid.

[crash]

These 'catch me if you can' know it all punters drop in to establish what? An ego injection?

Lets see how they would go in a comp. Of course they would never enter one. Too gutless. Preachers not punters who couldn't pick their nose, let alone winners. Come on mate, join one of the comps. and show us all up!

[crash]

Taree
2/5
5/9 $2.10p
6/12
7/14 $50.90w / $11.90p

This system is killing it. Considering how few bets there were today, I would have allowed the last one as it's only 90c above the max.

[Nigel]

crash, did you by any chance look at the results on Saturday?

[crash]

No I didn't do sat. [but I will].

Check this out win or place so far:

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
6/9,10,11 [9 $15.20p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p
-----------------------
GOSFORD
1/5 x
5/8,9 x
6/9 x
7/14,15 [14w $14.50w $3p]
KALGOORLIE
3/8 x
5/8 x
6/9 [2.30p]
TOWNSVILLE
3/6 x
5/8 x
8/12 x
----------------------
CESSNOCK
7/11 [$11.60p]
GOULBURN
7/17e
ROCKHAMPTON
5/8
7/9 [$9.90p]
8/10
SEYMOUR
4/14,15
5/10,11
6/15,17
-------------------
Taree
2/5
5/9 $2.10p
6/12
7/14 $50.90 / $11.90p [I would allow that bet considering the few bets for the day and only being 90c above the $50 cut off].
----------------------------

All very nice so far and killer profits. Every day a profit.

[jacfin]

Taree
2/5
5/9 $2.10p
6/12
7/14 $50.90w / $11.90p

This system is killing it. Considering how few bets there were today, I would have allowed the last one as it's only 90c above the max.

Crash
You clearly stated a couple of times that selns > 50/1 are to be excluded. Taree 7/14 was actually 49.9/1 so it is a legitimate seln - no rule bending reqd.
Nice one

[crash]

So far this is a killer system with max profit. Will it go pear shaped? Back it until it does is my advice.

[Mr Quaddie]

what are the exact rules to follow?

[crash]

1. Good or Dead tracks only
2. No maiden races
3. Look at horses with min. weight only
4. Must be 3rd or 4th up
5. Rule out any horse over 50/1 [$51 cut off not $50, so the $50.80 winner just scraped in]
6. Back alll selections up to 3. Ignore the race if more than 3.

The rules do make some sense. The selection will be fit and probably moving up a bit in class, so the odds are usually good. These horses are often overlooked by punters, but obviously some of them do have a chance of winning. I'm generally just a win bet punter, but there is profit there it seems for place betting, which some punters prefer.

I'm sure it will hit the deadly run of outs soon, but I'll go with the recent luck for as long as it lasts.

[Nigel]

crash, something you may like to look at:

Delete any runner that was placed last start but include maiden races.


Saturday
Queanbeyan race 2 #10 $41.70/9.60
Randwick race 6 #5 $11.00/3.10
Randwick race 9 #7 $16.40 plc

[Nigel]

and.............

disregarding track conditions


Doomben R4 #17 $4.10 plc
Gold coast R6 #12 $5.50 plc

and today Colac R1 #5 $6.50/2.90 and for second #9 $3.40 plc

[crash]

I haven't checked the system in the wet [I ignored last Sat.] but who knows?
It would be worth keeping an eye on as the low weight might make a difference. Maiden races could be another good area to look into.

[Mr Quaddie]

Is there any selections for tomorrow that meet the requirements?

[crash]

I'll wait for track conditions and scratchings before checking out tomorrow.

I hope today isn't a turning point. No profit.

RANDWICK-KENSINGTON
4/6,7[$1.30p],10[$2.60p]
5/12
7/12

[Nigel]

crash Randwick race 4:

#6 and 7 have a weight of 56.5kg. #10 has a weight of 54kg. Therefore only horse 10 is a qualifier?

[crash]

Thurs. 3.4.08
ASCOT
8/9 x
9/10 x
GRAFTON
7/10,13[$9.20w $2.60p],16
9/12,13[$4.80p]
MACKAY
5/10 x
6/11,12 [$12w $3.20p]
7/8 x
8/8 x
Out $11 R$21.20w
------------------------
Fri. 4.4.08
FANNIE BAY
2/7 x
GOLD COAST
4/10 x
6/12 x
8/15 x
MOONEE VALLEY
5/1 $12.50w [dead heat] $6.20p
MILDURA
2/7 x
MUSWELLBROOK
6/15 x
7/12 [$3.20p]
9/11 x
Out $9 Return $12.50w
---------------------

I've checked out last Sat. and this Sat. and the System is overwhelmed by too many bets from too many venues. Leave Sat out I think. Is still doing well on week days. Win bet only for me anyway.

[Mr Quaddie]

What is the most important aspects in racing?

Barrier? track/distance record? distance record? weight? form - must have placed in two of last four runs? must be listed within top 5 of ratings? must be selected by at least two professionals in the their top 3 selections?

[crash]

Truly forget all that crap. The 'pros' work for a living because they know a lot about the runners but can't pick when they will win if their life depended apon it.

THE most important aspect of picking a winner is PACE and knowing what the pace will be for any race. Only then does the barrier become important. Distance is important too of course and so is the jockey. If the trainer has it together, the runner has the best of a chance.

As far as this system goes, the main thing is fitness. 3rd or 4th up and min. weight. It gets a few unexpected winners home.

[Privateer]

I have previously participated in comps here Crash old son. I only have a max of 6 bets per Saturday across the country so 90% of any "tips" I gave would be guesses as are yours I'd imagine. Further, if I posted my method selections here then they could be analysed and the method used, identified. That wouldn't be good business sense now would it?

I don't see the point in posting much now because nobody pays any attention to what is said anyway! I've provided some very sound guidelines here in the past that had they been followed, would provide the basis of a very sound selection method.

For almost six years I've been using my own method to make a nice living. That's right! Average 6 bets, all ONLY on a Saturday and make a living!! Keep digging mate, you'll get there or die trying.

Cheers

Privateer

[crash]

Post deleted.
Flaming ...

[crash]

Just forget that last post as it might get me banned. Just forget I ever said it and I take it all back.
It just isn't worth saying anything controversial here. It will get me banned for sure. So sorry I said anything.

Of course it's OK, within reason, to post something controversial.
But it is not OK to flame other posters.
Moderator.

[Mr Quaddie]

May I ask, what is your tips Privateer? I am all ears.

[crash]

Just forget that last post as it might get me banned. Just forget I ever said it and I take it all back.
It just isn't worth saying anything controversial here. It will get me banned for sure. So sorry I said anything.

Of course it's OK, within reason, to post something controversial.
But it is not OK to flame other posters.
Moderator.

I'm sorry about that. I never really saw it as flaming but with hindsight. yes your right. Sorry about that Privateer. I thought I was just 'ragging'. No offense was meant.

[Privateer]

I've gone out of my way to help fellow punters over the years only to be the subject of abuse and negativity. There is some wonderful information available on this site for punters prepared by people who have done all of the hard yards for you. Unfortunately, that punter mentality kicks in. You know the one, "yeah, right, THAT can't win! I can pick something to beat it." So you ignore the advice right there before your eyes and go with your own theories only to lose yet again.

A number of years ago, I spent months, my own long service leave, travelling back and forth 6 days a week, 10 hours a day to the Brisbane State Library analysing race results into statistics until I was almost blind! Finally, I came up with something workable and effective as a base method of horse selection that I still use today.

I've regularly shared some of that information here over the years, posted a contact email address and spent hours helping fellow punters only to end up copping a mouthful of inane abuse from a poster that I previously respected. I now wonder why I ever bothered.

Use this goldmine of information here at Propun wisely. Research it! Be flexible in your thoughts and lateral in your thinking. Be prepared to accept and respect the ideas of others and of course, never, ever, ever bet on a rain affected track!

Good luck

Privateer

[Luckyboy]

Well it's been a good while since I've been here, but I couldn't resist dropping a post when I saw Mr Pareto had made a cameo...

Trust you're well Privateer?

I am a fortunate one that Privateer shared some of his learnings with and have been operating a simple little method for about four years now that has generated an average of 23% profit on bank per annum over that time.

But now he has got me intrigued with some other postings suggesting he has modified his method. I do pray that he has not found more holy grail?

Drop a line Privateer. I'd love to catch up.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[crash]

I'd love to see some up-front tips. Just for 1 Sat. would do.

[rumply]

and of course, never, ever, ever bet on a rain affected track!privateer, if your still around would you care to expand on that statement,

i am interested purely because wet tracks have over a long punting period have made no difference to my bottom line, so im not having a go in any way, just interested in the logic

thanks in anticipation

[crash]

I agree with Privateers statement on wet tracks. Any worse than dead 4 and I'm not interested. More water than that and the track conditions are never even, it's all over the shop. Not only that but horses are having muck kicked up into their face as is the jockey. Even form is out the window.

It always stumps me at the amount of punters who not only have no problems winning on wet tracks but even like them! Is it system based punting or form study?

[rumply]

It always stumps me at the amount of punters who not only have no problems winning on wet tracks but even like them! Is it system based punting or form study? Crash, all I can relate is that when I started punting & really had no clue as to what I was doing, the state of the track was never a consideration. It became so later on & I still recall the 1st time I lost confidence in a selection solely because of a slow track, didn’t back it & of course it won @ around 20's

I've backed plenty that obviously cant handle the going & I know I've done my bet after 400m, but I could say the same about plenty of others I’ve backed on good tracks that have missed the start, been checked, caught wide etc etc

anyway enough rambling, my point is that for all the bad bets I’ve made on wet tracks, their ratio seems no different to the bad bets I’ve made when its dry. The reasons for the poor runs may be different from wet to dry, but does that really matter? I dont think so

[crash]

I guess the main difference to me is depending on the track, some of the weird biases wet tracks can produce. It throws another spanner in the works to deal with [as well s the other points I mentioned earlier]. Still, it doesn't seem to matter to a lot of punters. I know from my past experience though, to leave the wet tracks alone. Just my experience anyway.

[reaper1313]

G'day All. New to punting and thought i'd try to get some informed ideas from those with a better clue instead of blindly giving away my $$ to the TAB. Lookin at crash's system. can someone please tell me what 'must be 3rd or 4th up' means and where to find that info? best bets or daily papers? Thanks

[darkydog2002]

Reaper.
Look at the number of runs after the X.

Cheers.
darky

ps.Dont forget WHIZ PUNT.

[crash]

G'day All. New to punting and thought i'd try to get some informed ideas from those with a better clue instead of blindly giving away my $$ to the TAB. Lookin at crash's system. can someone please tell me what 'must be 3rd or 4th up' means and where to find that info? best bets or daily papers? Thanks

Bit weird posting this here and not under the system thread your referring to[?] If Darky's post has still left you in the dark [lol,lol, sorry darky] I'll post you a few clues there reaper ok?

[reaper1313]

thanks alot darky!!! happy to check out wiz punt. feel like such a novice askin, but stuck on a couple of points..

LAST 3 STARTS = 9 OR LESS???
SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE??
SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS???

whats it mean, and what form guide do you recommend to get the info easily?
sorry to be a pain mate

[crash]

thanks alot darky!!! happy to check out wiz punt. feel like such a novice askin, but stuck on a couple of points..

LAST 3 STARTS = 9 OR LESS???
SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE??
SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS???

whats it mean, and what form guide do you recommend to get the info easily?
sorry to be a pain mate

324 last 3 starts = add up to 9 total [S or 0=10 each]
Senior rider [not apprentice] to 1.5kg= Apprentice with only a 1.5kg claim not 3 or 4kg claim.
Same class or drop in class: go on same weight as last start or less weight [up in class] than last start. More weight=up in class. Not always technically correct but close enough for a new punter to start off.

Go with the 'Winning Post" $4 [I still use it]. The 'Sportsman' or 'Wizard' will confuse you at this time.

[Mr Quaddie]

Bet for the win only. Bet $1 for the win is good. Bet up to 3 horses in each race if you like cause the average devidend is $3+, so if any of those 3 wins you make a profit. Do not bet on races that has an odd-on pop in the race.

[crash]

I should have said more weight = down in class. Just a typo.

[Mr Quaddie]

LAST 3 STARTS = 9 OR LESS
SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE
SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS (Up in weight)

Any other criteria?

How about must won at distance, prefer horses that has won track/distance?
Must be 4th up (or more) from a spell

[darkydog2002]

Reaper.

I would stick to the Sportsman.

In the middle page "lift out "every bit of information is there "at a Glance"

Take the information needed as given out by the Sportsman Handicappers.

If you Add any more rules to this Good system you are only likely to "cruel" the method and effect the high strike rate and profitability.
DONT DO IT.

Good luck with it and thanks for your questions.

Cheers.
darky.

[Mr Quaddie]

Surely you can add MUST OF RACED LAST WITHIN THE PAST 14 DAYS?

[darkydog2002]

Blimey .If it raced LAST in the past 14 days it wouldnt fit the criteria of last 3 runs = 9 or less. .Ho Ho.

darky.

[reaper1313]

thanks alot for the tips fellas. gonna have a crack at it, as well as crashs one. seems a matter of intelligent filtering and not goin for the get rich quick, but look for stable increasing profits. found a staking plan called holy grail which SEEMS to be good idea. dont trust its selection methods though..

[crash]

thanks alot for the tips fellas. gonna have a crack at it, as well as crashs one. seems a matter of intelligent filtering and not goin for the get rich quick, but look for stable increasing profits. found a staking plan called holy grail which SEEMS to be good idea. dont trust its selection methods though..

Wouldn't touch my system till Sunday. Too many races between now and then [too much $ exposure]. I don't touch Saturdays ever, but then again I've never tried the system on Sat.

[reaper1313]

thanks crash!!!. will follow the rules and keep it simple mon-fri. using this magicbet one for saturdays only (that's one of its rules anyway). so i'll have a crack tomorrow and start on yours next week. and i just wanna say that i appreciate all your help and advice. been reading over the last closed thread and think its great people like yourself who have studied obviously for years in racing and have a clue can share working ideas and selection methods that obviously work, and personally reckon that anyone who's jealous they haven't come up with something better to share apart from braggin, and wanna turn help/advice forums into a ****ing contest can go to ******y!!! don't need to justify yourself mate. if they can't come up with the same selections everyone else does by following the same rules, then tippin they bit short in the top paddock. cheers mate

[reaper1313]

can someone please explain what the various codes mean.. g1, g2 etc. c1, c2 c3 etc. LR, NMW, 2MWLY and so on. or know of a site that lists them and their interpretations entirely.

[Stix]

Although my system doesn't discriminate on barrier position 70% of profit comes from barrier 9 or greater.

Lower weights seem to give more value as people don't tend to go past saddle cloth 7....

[Silver_and_sand]

G'day Grim,

All of those abbreviations are for the types of races. I'm not sure which website or paper you got those from but basically the "G" would represent "Group", the "C" = Class, "LR" = Listed Race, which is sometimes referred to a Group 4 race, "NMW" or "0MW" = No or Zero Metro Wins, and "2MWLY" = 2 Metro Wins Last Year.

With all these different ways of trying to classify each race, it can be hard sometimes to know the true quality of a race. Here's a rough list in descending order of significance:

Group 1 (eg. Melbourne Cup)
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4, also called Listed
Open
Class 6
Class 5
Class 4
Class 3
Class 2
Class 1
Maiden

I usually equate 0MW, 1MW, 2MW, 0MWLY, 1MWLY and 2MWLY races with being similar to a Class 5 or 6 race. There's also some races called "Quality" and "Flying" races. I believe they're considered to be somewhere between an Open race and Group 4 race, though I could be wrong.

To be eligible to enter a Maiden race, a horse must not have won a race before. To enter a Class 2 race, a horse must not have won more than 2 races before; it may have yet to win a race, may have won 1 race or even 2, but no more. And so on and so forth. When we get up to the Open and Group races, more parameters come into play. There may be minimum prizemoney earned restrictions before eligible to enter, and other rules.

Just a word of advice. I think the prizemoney on offer is a better guide to the quality of horses in the race. Sometimes you will notice a fairly lowly Class 3 race with $60,000 prizemoney, yet next week there will be an Open race with only $40,000 prizemoney. My point is, if an Open race is supposed to be better than a Class 3 race, why are there are times when prizemoney doesn't reflect that? You need to think like an owner. If you had a really good horse, you're going to enter it in the most appropriate race that offers the most money, so if your horse is eligible to either that Class 3 race or that Open race, you most likely going to enter it into the race with the most money, which was the Class 3 race. This is why I feel it's better to rank races by their Prizemoney, not Class.

Hope that helps.

[crash]

Spot on Silver. Money means everything. Go with prize money as a class pointer [it's simple]. You'll go crazy otherwise. A $20,000 class 1 means more than a $10,000 class 6.

[Mr Quaddie]

With Darky's system do you play it at all venues or just city events?

[reaper1313]

thanks silver. yes helps alot. so the various codes don't always mean..though they can do.. a handicapped race. been lookin for handicapped races, but noticed not all of them are listed as such.. i think. sorry, still in the learnin process mate.

[reaper1313]

crash, wanna ask ya.. when you say "3rd or 4th up" in your selection methods, would you include maidens, as in that it is actually the horses 3rd or 4th ever run?

[reaper1313]

has anyone ever heard of, or tested "the holy grail" system/staking plan? is it worthwhile?

[crash]

crash, wanna ask ya.. when you say "3rd or 4th up" in your selection methods, would you include maidens, as in that it is actually the horses 3rd or 4th ever run?

No maidens, hurdles or races for 2yr olds. The system might work for maidens, I've never tested it. Who knows?

3rd or 4th up simply means it's either the horse's 3rd or 4th start ever, or 3rd or 4th start from a spell and that would probably depend on the form guide you use as there are different ideas about the amount of time a horses hasn't ran for which represents a spell. Just stick with the same source.

[Privateer]

Hey Joel, you dropped off the planet mate?

Just wanted to say that I love the first post in this thread, you have obviously put a lot of thought into it.

Privateer

[darkydog2002]

Mr QUADDIE,

With WIZ PUNT I am only using it on Saturdays.

Cheers.
darky.

[Silver_and_sand]

G'day Privateer,

It does feel like I've fallen off the planet a bit...been so busy lately.

I had been feeling a little guilty that I haven't really contributed very much to this forum in terms of offering system builders possible angles. And though I love the process involved in trying to nut out system rules for a potential system, I just don't get much free time these days to do much full-on research. So I just wanted to post a couple of potential system rules that others might find useful.

One of the keys to any system is finding value. So the question is what are some things your average punter is going to look at in the form guide that might sway his bets one way or another, but are really either irrelevant in the outcome of the race, or if they do suggest a result, they are so overbet, there's just no value left in the selection (a system with a 50% strike rate is absolutely useless if the average price is $2.00 or less).

Here's a short list I've come up with:

Widest Barrier - they think a horse can't win from the widest barrier, so avoid it, which generates some value.
Lowest TAB #'s - they think the winners will only come from near the top of the list, and forget those near the bottom, which generates value in those lower TAB #'s.
Highest Money Earner - they overbet the horse with the highest prizemoney earned, which leaves no value.
Favourites - they overbet the favs, especially when they're trying to dig themselves out of a hole, so there's no value left.
Down in Class/Prizemoney - they overbet those horses that are coming down in class, thinking that well if they just raced against a better mob of horses last start, then surely it can knock off this lot, which results in no value for the selection. This one needs some consideration. If you were a trainer and confident in your horse that just raced in a $75,000 race, would you want it's next race to be for $100,000 or $50,000? In my mind, when a horse is coming down in class, it's because the trainer has little confidence in it, and is trying to compensate for that by giving it a lower field to race against. Regardless, these horses are usually overbet, and there's no value in them.

Anyone else have any tips for system builders to incorporate into their systems?

Anyway, thanks for your message Privateer. It's good to hear from you. Hope you have a good day today mate.

Regards,
Joel

[Silver_and_sand]

To follow up on my last post, here's how those categories performed today in the 4 main tracks (Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne/Adelaide metro):

The widest drawn horse in each race returned $69.10w / $52.80p, and had strike rates of 18% and 46% respectively over the 33 races. Good value to be had for both the win and place.

The lowest TAB # horse in each race returned $56.4w / $21.00p, and had strike rates of 6% and 15% respectively over the 33 races. Good value for the win bets, but the strike rates seem a bit too low. Maybe the mug punters have this one right...avoid the lowest TAB # horses.

The horse with the highest API (average prizemoney earned per race) in each race returned a miserly $15.80w / $24.60p, and had strike rates of 15% and 45% respectively over the 33 races. I think this is going to surprise some people. Yes, these horses will often be considered the best in the race because of the higher API, but they're just so overbet, they can't be trusted to turn a profit. Best to avoid these horses.

The favourite horse in each race returned $33.00w / $27.6p, and had strike rates of 33% and 52% respectively over the 33 races. It's just too risky to have to rely on such a high strike rate for the win just to break even. Best to rule a line through them.

The horses racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start returned $48.2w / $53.2p, and had a win strike rate of 13.4% for the 67 selections. Again, these horses are overbet, and lose all value. Like favourites, just rule a line through them.


So, what if we combined these ideas. What are the results of the horses that had the widest barrier, were not the lowest TAB #, were not the horse with highest API in the race, were not the favourite, and are not racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start?

20 selections returned $59.40w / $38.10p, and had strike rates of 10% and 40% respectively. Not too bad. The win strike rate is a bit low, so maybe it would be better to focus on place bets.

FYI, the prices are based on the TABonline website, and while I tried to be accurate in my calculations, I won't promise they're all correct, so if you happen to find a mistake, well...good for you. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif I basically just wanted to follow up on those ideas in my previous post to see if they might be worthy for others to incorporate into their system(s). Hopefully, someone will find at least some of this input useful.

And no I didn't bet those 20 selections today (unfortunately). :C

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing your observations Silver.

There are some very interesting stats there, that may have some futher potential.

Hers a plan that had some success, that I ran, as one of my many sysytems.

. Bet the 2 widest barriers in races with exactly 10 runners.

. We are usually betting 2 horses a race to win, bet same amount on each.

. Must be $4.50+ pre-post.

It had a 20% win SR with some amazing prices.

Cheers.

[Stix]

Bhagwan

Looking at Sydney races ONLY:

Runners 10
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10

Since 1/1/00
Selections 110
Wins 44 (S/R 40.00%) Places 74 (67.27%)
POT 19% LOT 2.15%

Since 1/1/05
Selections 48
Wins 23 (S/R 47.92%) Places 33 (68.75%)
POT 41.46% LOT 3.04%

[Mr Quaddie]

Regardless of the horse's name or form, we just bet on whoever is in barriers 9 and 10 in a exact 10 horse field right?

Does anyone have any long term stats for this?

Seems interesting.

Also, it seems that favourites only win 33% of the time, so its best not to bet on a the favourite I assume.

[Bhagwan]

Interesting Stats there Stix, well done.
Thanks for sharing your observations.

Hi Quaddi
My stats were over 4.5yrs
$4.50+ pre-post newspaper.

Stix's idea was horses less than $4.10


This crazy idea, even showed a profit betting the 2 horses for a place only for some outragously high divs.

Most pundits will say that it is impossible to show a profit betting 2 horses a race at place betting.

It would be interesting to see other pundits ideas based around 10 runners exactly.
No matter how crazy it may appear.
It's the crazy form horses that hits the crazy dividends.
We dont need many to recover losses.

For those who enjoy discrediting posters mad ideas, I advise them to place lay bets either not to win or not to place, on all these selections & just see what happens next, one may find a very rude suprise to their bank balance.


Cheers.

[Stix]

Interesting Stats there Stix, well done.
Thanks for sharing your observations.

Hi Quaddi
My stats were over 4.5yrs
$4.50+ pre-post newspaper.

Stix's idea was horses less than $4.10


This crazy idea, even showed a profit betting the 2 horses for a place only for some outragously high divs.

Most pundits will say that it is impossible to show a profit betting 2 horses a race at place betting.

It would be interesting to see other pundits ideas based around 10 runners exactly.
No matter how crazy it may appear.
It's the crazy form horses that hits the crazy dividends.
We dont need many to recover losses.

For those who enjoy discrediting posters mad ideas, I advise them to place lay bets either not to win or not to place, on all these selections & just see what happens next, one may find a very rude suprise to their bank balance.


Cheers.So we disregard, say, anything that has placed within it's last 3-4 starts?

[Bhagwan]

Maybe, following on from your suggestion ,I beleive this should work, say...

. Bet the first 4 horses going down the list that have not been placed at any of its last 3 runs, include x as a run so as to keep things simple.

.Must have at least 2+ career starts.

.10 runners exactly.


My original post was to just bet the 2 outside barriers that are $4.50-99.00 in the pre-post market.
10 runners exactly.
Regardless of starts or form.

Cheers

[Stix]

Sorry this is actually for ALL states http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gif



Bhagwan

Looking at Sydney races ONLY:

Runners 10
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10

Since 1/1/00
Selections 110
Wins 44 (S/R 40.00%) Places 74 (67.27%)
POT 19% LOT 2.15%

Since 1/1/05
Selections 48
Wins 23 (S/R 47.92%) Places 33 (68.75%)
POT 41.46% LOT 3.04%
....and if you look at "Must of placed last start" as another filter:

Runners 10
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10
Last Start <4

Since 1/1/00
Selections 77
Wins 34 (S/R 44.16%) Places 54 (70.34%)
POT 31% POT 0.44%

Since 1/1/05- 31/12/07
Selections 34
Wins 19 (S/R 56.88%) Places 25 (73.53%)
POT 62.35% POT 0.71%

.............. you don't get many bets though http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/cool.gif

[Stix]

And typically QLD is the worst for this method...... in fact usually the worst state is for any method (in my experience)

[Mr Quaddie]

Race 4 Murray Bridge on Wednesday has exactly 10 runners.
Race 2 and 6 Ipswich
Race 4 and 5 Bunbury

[Bhagwan]

Hi Quaddi,
One has to take into account any scratchings on the day so as there is exactly 10 runners in a race .
So the process can only be done once scratchings are known.

There could be more races to consider once that is known.

Cheers.

[Silver_and_sand]

If anyone's interested, here's some selections for Saturday. The rules are:

must be outside barrier
must not be the lowest TAB #
must not be favourite
must not have the highest API in the race
must not be racing for less prizemoney than it's last start

BR1 #15 Fissile
BR2 #5 Bungalien
BR3 #12 aaaaa Cross
BR4 #15 Rock On Bye
BR5 #8 Mr Hornblower
BR6 #18 Barclays
BR7 #9 Showify
BR8 #17 Rabbit Nagina

SR1 #4 Kylie
SR3 #6 Vardon Flyer
SR5 #4 Savana Royale
SR6 #3 Our Smoking Joe
SR7 #4 Lazer Sharp
SR8 #8 Murtajill
SR9 #13 Grey Stream

MR1 #8 Wunderland
MR2 #7 Imashadow
MR3 #7 Sweet Svengali
MR4 #7 Charted
MR6 #10 Serene Prince
MR7 #6 Windawoppa

AR5 #10 Aribaa
AR7 #9 Sellers
AR8 #5 Actin Snakey

There's quite a lot of longshots listed here, so I'd recommend place bets only.

Good luck.

[Mr Quaddie]

Anyone selections for Perth?

[Silver_and_sand]

Sorry mate. I avoid Perth racing like the plague. It just seems like the favs always get up there, and I just can't bring myself to back a fav.

[odericko]

are you completly mad thats the best market in the country to make a buck from

[Silver_and_sand]

To each his own. Care to share your insights on how to make a buck in WA, Odericko?

[Mr Quaddie]

Sorry mate. I avoid Perth racing like the plague. It just seems like the favs always get up there, and I just can't bring myself to back a fav.
Perth punters are the smartest thats why! hahaha ;) They know which horse will win.