Lay Betting Help

[Shaun]

I am trying to work out the viability of my selections, but am not sure how to work it out.

If i provide the win results could some one explain how to work out the lay results.

Selections 86,078
Winners 1,048
Return on winners $51,584
Strike Rate 1.22%

[Chrome Prince]

Shaun it depends entirely on the price you can get.
That's what first time layers miss.

Let's say you're sitting on a 20% loss at TAB prices, you may in fact have to sacrifice 25% just to get matched, especially on the longer priced horses. Then pay 5% commission on top. Couple that with, you don't know the final TAB price in advance and it's very easy to lay well over the odds.

There are a number of ways to work out the lay results.
You can work it out to stake, liability or payout.

But you do need to know the prices layed at rather than past tote prices.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Shaun,
The Lay betting thing can be tricky when one starts getting into it, at first.

This is one way to work out the results.

. Write out the outlay for all races.
. Then write out all the payouts which includes the initial stake .

Example.
Say outlay over 10 races at $10 per race = $100

Payouts on unsuccessful horses $10@3.00, $10@4.00 , $10@2.00=$90

$100 - $90 = $10 profit.

STAKING
Here is a proven method for calculating what one could outlay when lay betting.

$1000 Bank
Say bank is $1000 divide by 1/20th of bank = 100
Divide the 100 by 5/1 = $20 per race
On all selections priced between $1.00-$6.00

For horses prices at $6.10+ , Divide the fractional odds of the horse (e.g. 7/1) into 1/20th of bank e.g. 100 mentioned above.

Example
Horse is $8.00 = 7/1 fractional odds into 100 (1/20th of bank) = O/L $14.28
for this horse.

The reason it is done like this is that it takes into account that shorter priced horses tend to statisticaly win more often than longer priced horses.

The 2/1 shots can hit you twice as many times as a 5/1 shots & it still wont do as much damage as the 5/1 shots because we are betting the same $20 amount on all selections that fall within this price range of $1.00-$6.00

Try & avoid progressional betting when lay betting like the plague, you will be sorry.
If one feels they must increase their bet , then no more than 25% at a time.


Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

I pinched this from somewhere ages ago but that's what the Internet is for isn't it?

You've not provided the average price of all selections but I'm going to assume it's around $100 (ave$all).

Let's work out the loser's strike rate

loserSR = 1 - (winners / selections)
loserSR = 1 - (1,048 / 86,078)
loserSR = 1 - 0.01217
loserSR = 0.98783

So how much would you have made for $1 on each selection?

netProfitEach = ((loserSR x Betfair Commission) / ave$all) - loserSR
netProfitEach = ((0.98783 x 0.95) / $100) - 0.01217
netProfitEach = (0.93843 / $100) - 0.01217
netProfitEach = 0.0093843 - 0.01217
netProfitEach = -$0.0027857 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif


So on every selection you're losing just over quarter of a cent.


Therefore your total profit would have been

Total Net Profit = selections x netProfitEach
Total Net Profit = 86,078 x -$0.0027857
Total Net Profit = -$239.78 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif


Certainly something to work with. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif but ...

... if you've used tote prices your profit will be lower.
... if my guess average price is wrong thing could be better or worse.
... your average winner's divi is $49.22 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/eek.gif

[Shaun]

All this looks good but as was pointed out to me i would need to have every lay bet accepted and this is not always the case.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's some food for thought Shaun....

I do a lot of lay betting early, hours early on UK racing.
Usually, I'm well set two hours before the first race on all races for the day/night.
I've had to change my strategy completely due to several personal factors.
So I looked at it this way, 8 hours early, we might have win markets around 120% to around 110% and as little as 105% or less.
Those market will eventually go off around 101% or less.
Prices will have to move dramatically.
Sometimes, one horse will crunch in, and all the rest will blow out.
Sometimes two horses will come in and all the rest will blow out.
Sometimes a highly fancied horse will blow out and the outsiders will come in.
There's no real way to tell, but there are several ways to take advantage.

I would suggest, get your prices from a reliable source and lay them earlier than the 10 minutes out.
In poor liquidity and poorly priced, greedy markets, you might have a 50/1 shot only being offered to back at 20/1.
Get in there and offer your 40/1 or 50/1.

You might be surprised how often the bait gets swallowed.
As I explained, you have a slim to none chance of getting matched when the money comes into the market later, any matches will come from firmers - and you don't want that.

The early bird catches the squiggly thing that lives in the ground. :D

[Shaun]

How can you bet or lay less than the $6 minimum

[AngryPixie]

To Lay
Place a $6 @ 1.01 lay
Amend this lay by the amount you want to stake. You'll end up with two lays.
Delete the $6 lay
Amend the price of the remaining layto what you want

To Back
Same but put the $6 on at 1000

Some of the trading apps like Fairbot and BetTrader Pro do this for you automatically. Get one of these - you can't work properly from the Betfair UI.

[Shaun]

It has been awhile so it will be like learning it all over again, i will check out some apps.

[Bhagwan]

For those that dont already know, Bet Trader Pro can be had for FREE from their site , just Google "Racing Traders"

It gets around the Betfair $6 min were by amounts as low as 1 cent can be bet.

Cheers.

[Shaun]

This may sound a bit stupid but what is the best way to work out profit and loss with lay bets so i can work out profit on turnover

[jfc]

This may sound a bit stupid but what is the best way to work out profit and loss with lay bets so i can work out profit on turnover

Your turnover is really your risk.

So if you Lay a 20/1 (=21.0) chance for $1 - your risk and turnover are $20.

If you lay more than 1 contingency in a market (in proportion) your risk and turnover would start decreasing.

Lay and Back and it gets even weirder.

I don't know anyone who bother calculating POT for such complex scenarios.

[YoungBuck]

I thought that too, but someone on another forum who was very persuasive in their arguement suggests your turnover is simply what bets you are holding as the bookmaker, not your potential risk.

So your example JFC would indicate $1 turnover only.

[Crackone]

This may sound a bit stupid but what is the best way to work out profit and loss with lay bets so i can work out profit on turnoverThe easiest way would be winnings div. by payout

[AngryPixie]

I thought that too, but someone on another forum who was very persuasive in their arguement suggests your turnover is simply what bets you are holding as the bookmaker, not your potential risk.

So your example JFC would indicate $1 turnover only.Yes I didn't agree with that when I read it. JFC's right. It's the profit over and above your total liability that really should be used not your hold. I do record "Profit on Total Liability" for my own use but 3.5% doesn't sound as good as 23.4% "Profit on Total Hold" ;)