Tabonline system

[JoeF]

Here is something that the Unitab followers may like to check out.
It has had the following results (Saturday only) for the year to date:

Selections = 399
Winners = 53
Returns = 444.00 Unitab divvies
Win % = 13.2 % (Would try the patience of Job at that rate)
WPOT = 11.2 %

Method is to back the horse paying the longest divvie that is picked by both Unitab tipsters.
For example, if the tipsters have 2, 3 or 4 horses picked in common, back the longest.
If there is only one selection picked by both, leave the race alone.
It doesn't seem to work if there is only one selection in common.


That all sounded rather complicated, but it isn't of course.

Could obviously be improved by shopping for prices.
I can put up the results for each Saturday if anybody is interested.

[Crackone]

Anything showing a profit at tab prices has something to it, well done.

[Mr Quaddie]

Please do post the stats.

Is this for races, greyhounds or harness? Is this for every meeting or just city meets?

[JoeF]

No time 2nite Mr Q.
Will do so tomorrow.
Was going to post the selections for Sat. but would have to post about 2 mins before each race as they depend on the last possible Tab call to get the selection.
These have of course been back fitted, so how they go in real time is a bit of an issue.

[JoeF]

Mr Q, it is for the Gallops, only in Bris, Syd and Melb.
The idea could be taken to other venues but most of those only have one tipster, if that.

Results by day:

5/1/08 14 bets/6 winners $43.60 return
12/1/08 26/0 0
19/1 24/2 16.70
26/1 23/1 5.90
2/2 23/5 29.90
9/2 23/4 28.90
16/2 26/2 12.60
23/2 24/2 12.90
1/3 25/3 18.50
8/3 25/4 40.00
15/3 25/3 26.20
22/3 25/5 43.40
29/3 22/1 4.70
5/4 23/2 18.60
12/4 25/4 40.60
19/4 23/4 29.80
26/4 23/5 33.70
Total 399 bets/53 winners $444.00 return.

It also throws up a few good placegetters, although I haven't documented them.

That is raw data, a few filters may improve it.

[Mr Quaddie]

Thanks for that! Looks interesting.

Just to confirm, if pro tipper 1 tipped 1,6,5,4 and pro tipper 2 tipped 1,6,8,10 then we will back the horse with the biggest odds out of horses 1 & 6 right?

Horses: 4,5,7,3 & 4,9,8,3 - Back horse with biggests odds out of 3 & 4.

Horses: 4,6,5,9 & 4,8,2,7 - No bet race.

[JoeF]

Mr Q, yes that is it exactly. It is easy enough to back check the results, so I may do over the next week or so. Shall keep you posted.
As i say, the strike rate would test the patience of Job, but a profit is a profit I suppose.

[JoeF]

Sat 03/05/08
23 bets 1 winner 7 placegetters
23/1 = $4.60 & 7 = $17.60.
Bit of a wipeout today.
Actually, I don't think this is even a viable angle, as a couple of times today the prices when the bet would have to be placed (approx 2 mins from the off)
the price changed from the final TAB divvie, meaning sometimes the horse that is backed is not the one that is the real selection.
If all that makes sense.
No matter, I'll just get the drawing board out again.

[Crackone]

Actually, I don't think this is even a viable angle, as a couple of times today the prices when the bet would have to be placed (approx 2 mins from the off)
the price changed from the final TAB divvie, meaning sometimes the horse that is backed is not the one that is the real selection.
If all that makes sense.
No matter, I'll just get the drawing board out again.Thats what is wrong if Tab price systems, prices jump around after the race has started, I have seen the win pool double after the jump. You could always use fixed price, betfair

[JoeF]

You may be right Crackone.
I have just been back thru the Courier Pre Post prices from Friday and the results for today changed a little to:

23 bets 2 winners 7 placegetters
23/2 = $9.80, 7 = $17.30

May see if I get time to go back thru the year to dates results using the same criteria and see if it holds up.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Joe,
Thanks for sharing those interesting observations.

If one wished to use TAB prices, one would have to place the bet at zero jump time, even then, it will change because there is a 90 sec loop of time for all the bets from around the country to get sorted, but it would be far more accurate than 2 min out, because those 2 mins is when most of the money is going on, which then takes 90 secs before it is showing on ones screen..

If one wanted more accuracy, Betfair would be the go.
The divs are usually stronger as well because one is betting into say a approx 104% market rather than a 118.5% TAB market. This makes for some huge differences in price.

If you do choose to open up a Betfair account & one wishes to get around the $6 min Betfair amount , then download Bet Trader Pro from RacingTarders.com.uk (Google) One can then place bets for as low as 1c.

Ther program also makes it a lot easier to use than the Betfair site which can be combersome & slow, in the heat of battle.
One registeres the program using ones Betfair details.
Its also FREE.

Cheers.

[JoeF]

Ta for that B.
I actually only use UNITAB figures as a guide to the viability of a method.
The idea being that if a method can produce a profit at TAB prices, it will stand up if better prices are had.
I do fluff about on BETFAIR, but having had a terrible belting on the Lay side of things a while back I am a bit gun-shy.
I have started laying a few in the last couple of months and now that I have rid myself of the blood rushes and panic bets it is going rather well.
Personality wise I think I am still a backer, rather than a layer. (but that is probably a whole different story, which I may just start a new thread on).
Will get around to sorting those bets at Pre-Post prices in the next couple of days or so and post them here, the added advantage of Pre-post prices is that the bets can be "set and forget" for the day, as the only thing that is needed is the UNITAB tipsters tips, so the bets could be put on AM.