Need some help with this

[ubetido]

Hi all

Still debating whether to stay on level stakes or not. Still considering the run of outs possibilities.

Any suggestions of a staking set up.

Thinking out aloud
should i go for the win and save on the place.
Should i consider only certain place odds

These figures are in time order. The results have been consistent month after month for quite a while. I am curious if there is a way with these results to extract a bit more other than from level stakes.

Not real interested in all up becuse if one misses you lose the whole lot of that progression.

This is the last 30 days bets on TAB. Yes Bhagwan am looking seriously at Betfair...lol

1ST $3.00 $1.50
2ND $0.00 $1.60
3RD $0.00 $2.10
1ST $3.10 $1.70
U/P $0.00 $0.00
3RD $0.00 $2.50
3RD $0.00 $1.50
2ND $0.00 $1.70
U/P $0.00 $0.00
U/P $0.00 $0.00
2ND $0.00 $1.30
2ND $0.00 $3.50
U/P $0.00 $0.00
2ND $0.00 $2.10
1ST $8.00 $3.30
U/P $0.00 $0.00
1ST $2.80 $1.40
U/P $0.00 $0.00
1ST $5.50 $1.70
1ST $18.40 $6.00
U/P $0.00 $0.00
2ND $0.00 $2.40
2ND $0.00 $1.90
1ST $16.80 $4.40
1ST $5.50 $2.30
U/P $0.00 $0.00
1ST $4.30 $1.40
1ST $2.20 $1.50
1ST $3.20 $1.50
U/P $0.00 $0.00
3RD $0.00 $1.80
3RD $0.00 $2.70
U/P $0.00 $0.00
2ND $0.00 $1.00
U/P $0.00 $0.00
U/P $0.00 $0.00
1st $5.00 $1.90
1st $5.60 $2.40
U/P $0.00 $0.00

Cheers
Ubetido

[wildtom]

just the place what pot or lot?

[Bhagwan]

That is an amazing result Ubetido, well done.
Can you say what the selection process is?

One may like to try betting 1w x 6plc = 7 units per race.

Betting 1/20th of bank.
e.g. 7 x 20 = 140 unit bank.

Adjust bet accordingly to bank at the beginning of a new day.

[ubetido]

Hi

Thanks for that will look at it.

Bhagwan i don't really want to put the details on the open forum, Believe it or not still refining it slightly a few races i suspect i shouldn't be in.

Once finalised i'd be ok to share with you privately as you have given so much over time to the forum but i would like to wait so i don't make an idiot of myself another system type of thing.

As a general guideline though for the forum.

-It is between distances
-it looks at last three starts
-has a weight limit
-only includes certain ages
-track conditions (working on this one at the moment)
-barriers ( working on this one but there doesn't seem to be real evidence to disregard because of wide barriers at this stage)
-Is fairly selective average one bet per day over a period of time

Still working on the staking tend to be a little cautious when something relies on a very high srtike rate to make few bucks because it doesnt take much to tip you over if the run goes against you.

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Hi

Todays pick on the Sunshine coast race just run selection had wide barrier and has got up and won. Am finding a missed bag with barrriers.

Cheers
U

[stugots]

hi ubetido,

ive developed a couple dozens systems over the years that have thrown up similar results to those youve listed, high strike rate, too good to be true, etc

my advice (for what its worth), hammer it hard now mate while its going good, cause she'll fall over sooner rather than later

[stugots]

& those wide barriers? lower strike rate & higher divs, makes no diff

[ubetido]

Thanks Stugots

I know what you mean make hay while the sun shines....lol Barrier wise hard to find an answer on this one. Have considered distance for eg barrier 15 in a 2000m race may not be as severe as a 1000m race but its just my speculation at this stage.

These are just issues i will sort out very minor in the scheme of things. My main thing was how to support these type of results. At this stage i tend to lean to the place side of it as the potential for a long run of outs is more likely on the win side. I aslo can see Bhagwans thinking in adding the win unit in there.

Yesterday just for the info was 3 bets one won 2 unplaced. Some days no winners but a couple place.



Cheers
Ubetido

[odericko]

perhaps the main ingriedient is 4yo olds possibly 5 yr olds
last sp lower than 2nd last
hmmmm...

[odericko]

1/ 4yr old
2/last sp lower than 2nd last but no more than 8s??? not sure on this 1
3/ todays sp likely to be 4s or better maybe up to 7s or 8s??