Last Start Winner 7 Days

[Equine Investor]

Going to monitor this to see how we go with no filters applied to start with.

Moe Race 8 - 11 Classic Benbara

[becareful]

Just a suggestion Equine Investor - given that others have suggested the profits come from the better priced winners how about monitoring with a basic price filter as well (say only assume a bet if starting price on TABCORP is more than $5). I often find that cutting out the shorter priced horses can improve the POT considerably.

[Equine Investor]

Yes, good idea becareful, however, initially I want to run it open selections with details of closing prices etc. Then we can weed out the poor value later.

If I miss any qualifiers - and I'm sure I will because I'm so busy at the moment - everyone is free to add qualifying (gallops only) selections to this thread.
I'll just keep a running statistical balance going.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-17 13:28 ]</font>

[BettyBoop]

Think race 7 no 7 Pourquoi at Gosford today qualifies.

[Equine Investor]

Darn Tootin' right Boop!

Thanks.

[shy]

The best filters that improved the divs without effecting strike rate were...

2nd last start unplaced and

dropping in weight by at least 1 kg

hope this helps for later on



If you like I can post the qualifiers using just the winner in 7 days... my software does it at the touch of a button.

shy :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: shy on 2002-10-17 14:16 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Great stuff shy thankyou.

What program you using?
Do you find it worthwhile?

[shy]

I use Price Predictor Pro... and find it invaluable. With imported form you can have any system selections in seconds. Plus it can include very useful ratings.

As I work... I will post the qualifiers for the next day each evening if that's OK.

[Equine Investor]

Thanks shy - much appreciated.

[Equine Investor]

2 Selections
0 Wins
0 Places
BALANCE - 2 Units Loss

:sad:

[shy]

Qualifiers for Friday 18/10

Taree R6 - 2 Lady Of Laredo

[enjay]

I have been using the 7day last start winner for some time now. I also use Price Predictor Pro with certain eliminations using the system selector.. Here are the results for the past 12 months. A few multiple selections but still a good profit backing alll.....

(Note how long it took to analyse the data for 12 months)

Meetings considered : 228
Races selected : 91
Horses selected : 99
- Number that won : 30
- Strike Rate/Race : 33.0%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 30.3%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 50.5%
Return at $1/Seln. : $247.70
- Average Win Div. : $8.26
- Absolute Profit : $148.70
- Profit on Turnover: 150.2%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 2130.00 505.00 510.00 99.00
- Races WITH bets : 91 91 91 91
- Races WITH collect: 13 31 20 48
- Strike Rate/Race : 14.3% 34.1% 22.0% 52.7%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 3475.80 1147.60 1636.60 132.04
- Absolute $ Profit : 1345.80 642.60 1126.60 33.04
- Profit on Turnover: 63.2% 127.2% 220.9% 33.4%

Test Duration = 00:06:06

[enjay]

Forgot to mention, these results for melbourne only, saturday only.....

[Equine Investor]

Thanks enjay, that's more in line with my previous results too - only better.

:grin:

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-10-17 18:00, enjay wrote:

(Note how long it took to analyse the data for 12 months)

Meetings considered : 228
Races selected : 91
Horses selected : 99
- Number that won : 30
- Strike Rate/Race : 33.0%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 30.3%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 50.5%
Return at $1/Seln. : $247.70
- Average Win Div. : $8.26
- Absolute Profit : $148.70
- Profit on Turnover: 150.2%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 2130.00 505.00 510.00 99.00
- Races WITH bets : 91 91 91 91
- Races WITH collect: 13 31 20 48
- Strike Rate/Race : 14.3% 34.1% 22.0% 52.7%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 3475.80 1147.60 1636.60 132.04
- Absolute $ Profit : 1345.80 642.60 1126.60 33.04
- Profit on Turnover: 63.2% 127.2% 220.9% 33.4%

Test Duration = 00:06:06


enjay are these quinella bets etc only when there are multiple runners (qualifiers)in the same race or do you have some other method?
The feeling I have is if there are multiple selections in the same race, you divide your bet accordingly instead of two full bets - but that's just a theory.

[croc]

Melbourne only results - 3.10.01 to 12.10.02

Meetings considered 1226
Races selected 45
Horses selected 48
Winners 16
P.O.T 211.9%

Adding just one filter brings the horses selected down to 16 and the winners to 6 but the profit up the 543.8%

I suppose it's a matter of what you are looking for - less action and more profits or more action and less profits.

Have any of you PPP users ugraded to V2 and,if so, is it worthwhile?

[Tony]

This is a subject close to my heart as I played this system some ten or fifteen years ago and turned $300 into $5000 in about 18 months. This rapid growth was partly attributable to by a very wet winter to the point of closed training tracks which made recent race fitness even more valuable. The other factor was an aggressive staking plan which I got away with for that long but in the end caused my psychological approach to waver which eventually proved my downfall, rather than the selection process per se.

My Price predictor program came up with the following From 01/01/1999 - 12/10/2002
Melbourne Saturdays only.
Races selected : 216
Horses selected : 237
- Number that won : 46
- Strike Rate/Race : 21.3%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 19.4%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 42.6%
Return at $1/Seln. : $321.20
- Average Win Div. : $6.98
- Absolute Profit : $84.20
- Profit on Turnover: 35.5%
Filters would be required as most of this profit was made in the last 6 months or so including one $32 winner and has treaded water otherwise.

In my opinion the thing price predictor lacks is a facility to graph the progressive profit/loss positions over time.

[Equine Investor]

O.K. all you Price Predictor guys - can you do me a favour?....please?

Take out the shortest priced and longest priced winner out of the stats and see how the result goes?

Also what was the longest run of outs?
(I would estimate around 15 - 20 at a guess).
Please.

I know, I know, I should just invest in it myself and save months of hard work!

:wink:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-17 23:47 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-10-17 23:32, Tony wrote:
In my opinion the thing price predictor lacks is a facility to graph the progressive profit/loss positions over time.


I don't know if you can do this, but maybe you could import the results to Excel and graph it that way.

Just a suggestion.

[Tony]

Not looking good, Equine Investor, the longest I came up with was a $59 job along with that $32 one before mentioned accounted for more than all the profit in my scan. Longest run of outs = 23.
Thanks for the excel tip, would someone who understands such things care to comment?

[Equine Investor]

Tony, data can get distorted either way by one or two short or long-priced winners - as is evident by your update.

What format are your results in?

Maybe I could help with the Excel stuff and send you a graph etc.

Let me know if I can help.

UPDATE

3 SELECTIONS
0 WINNERS
0 PLACES
BALANCE - 3 UNITS LOSS.

(2 horses started around the 9/1 mark and one around 3/1).

The run of outs is as expected but there are 4 qualifiers that I found for tomorrow.

AR5 - 2 Bevan
BR5 - 8 Phenom
MR5 - 8 Zvezda
MR8 - 17 The Secondmortgage :wink:

[shy]

Selections for 19/10

Victoria Park R5 - 2 Bevan
Eagle Farm R2 - 13 Miss Nat
Eagle Farm R5 - 8 Phenom
Caulfield R5 - 8 Zvezda
Caulfield R8 - 17 The Secondmortgage
Bendigo R8 - 4 Tanforan
Ascot R4 - 16 Win To Grin
Ascot R6 - 1 Hot Shot Brother

[Tony]

Equine Investor, the price predictor software does generate an excel file for analysis of scans.
You are welcome to the one I referred to above or can get you one with all venues if you prefer. Would greatly appreciate help generating graphs if you are able.
Where do I send the file to?

[Equine Investor]

send it to mrdavidking@hotmail.com and i'll have a look at it tomorrow afternoon Tony.

[Tony]

Thanks, jobs done.

[enjay]

Hi all.

Selections from my Melbourne 7 days system are:-
SYSTEM SELECTOR REPORT FOR: MELSEVEN 19/10/2002-19/10/2002
Created by Price Predictor at 00:29:23 on 19/10/2002

MELSEVEN: 19/10/2002 CAULFIELD


MR 5 # 8 1311 ZVEZDA 9/1 ????
MR 8 #17 6591 THE SECONDMORTGAGE 7/2 ????

Meetings considered : 4

Note: 2 selections found without results

Test Duration = 00:00:07

Equine Investor. I have sent a spreadsheet for your perusal.
CHeers..

[Equine Investor]

Thanks enjay and Tony, received both and will try to work out a graph etc for you.
Just got to work out the best way of doing it.

[shy]

Selections for 20/10

Warrnambool R5 - 1 Scenic Glow
Warrnambool R9 - 1 Shango's Image
Hawkesbury R7 - 2 Vidual

[Equine Investor]

RESULTS:

Victoria Park R5 - 2 Bevan (3rd)
Eagle Farm R2 - 13 Miss Nat (unplaced)
Eagle Farm R5 - 8 Phenom (unplaced)
Caulfield R5 - 8 Zvezda (scratched)
Caulfield R8 - 17 The Secondmortgage (unplaced)
Bendigo R8 - 4 Tanforan (unplaced)
Ascot R4 - 16 Win To Grin (WON $11.20 & $3.30)
Ascot R6 - 1 Hot Shot Brother (2nd)

10 SELECTIONS
1 WINNER
BALANCE +1.2 UNITS PROFIT

Looking at it objectively, so far I don't think it has much more merit than any other system except that you can catch some big winners at times - the runs of outs would really make some people lose interest quite quickly. If you had a run of 10/20 outs and only got a $2.00 winner you'd be quite disappointed. But it's early days yet.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-20 01:03 ]</font>

[TheDuck]

Hey, EI, if you need a hand with Excel I'd be happy to help.

Did you know you can design your own graphs if the usual suspects aren't cutting it?

[luckylouie]

Hi, I'd like to find out more about price predictor software. Can you point me in the right direction. Thanks
luckylouie@bigpond.com.au

[luckylouie]

Hi, I'd like to find out more about price predictor software. Can you point me in the right direction. Thanks
luckylouie@bigpond.com.au

[Equine Investor]

Hi luckylouie, try http://www.capitalinfo.com.au


TheDuck, yes I would appreciate some help as it's tricky trying to sort the data with so much information, let me know where I can send you the excel file.
Thanks.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-20 22:24 ]</font>

[ubetido]

hi

long term this doesnt work across the board it has better results in medium to longer distance races than the sprint races.

Maybe thats an option to look at but over the longer term?

that was my conclusion when i did the research.

regards

ubetido

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 21/10

[Equine Investor]

Thanks shy.


As the Tabcorp results service is offline - YET AGAIN :mad:

I will post the results tomorrow.

This is getting to be a habit and the TAB site just cannot handle Spring Carnival traffic, surely they could upgrade things with all the money they make!

Tip: If you want to bet Cox Plate day or Melbourne Cup Day via Tabcorp internet - suggest you do it the day before as it's quite likely the site will be unavailable for most of the day judging by past years.

[Equine Investor]

Results for 20/10

Warrnambool R5 - 1 Scenic Glow (UNPLACED)
Warrnambool R9 - 1 Shango's Image (WON $1.60 & $1.10)
Hawkesbury R7 - 2 Vidual (UNPLACED)

13 SELECTIONS
2 WINNERS
BALANCE -0.20 UNITS LOSS
STRIKE RATE 15.38%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $6.40

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-21 02:35 ]</font>

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 22/10

[shy]

Selections for 23/10

Murray Bridge R6-10 Damselac Warrior
Devonport R8-5 Black Light
Ascot R1-2 Alpine Trooper
Ascot R7-14 Summerveld

[TheDuck]

TheDuck, yes I would appreciate some help as it's tricky trying to sort the data with so much information, let me know where I can send you the excel file.
Thanks.

Hey, EI, sorry I missed your note completely! If you still want to collaborate on that Excel file it's dthoml1n7y2 at hotmail period com. I'll know when it comes in and respond as quickly as I can.

Sorry again!

Duck

[Equine Investor]

Selections for 23/10

Murray Bridge R6-10 Damselac Warrior (WON $7.90)
Devonport R8-5 Black Light(Didn't include as not covered by VicTAB)
Ascot R1-2 Alpine Trooper (unplaced)
Ascot R7-14 Summerveld (SECOND)

16 SELECTIONS
3 WINNERS
BALANCE +4.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 18.75%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $6.90


Thanks TheDuck, have sent you an email just then :wink:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-23 23:47 ]</font>

[shy]

Qualifiers fo 24/10

Moonee Valley R3-1 Dantana
Moonee Valley R6-4 Kabila

[shy]

Qualifiers 25/10

Kyneton R8-12 Gillies Street
Esk R6-7 Roman Country

[Equine Investor]

Moonee Valley R3-1 Dantana (WON $11.00)
Moonee Valley R6-4 Kabila (2ND)

18 SELECTIONS
4 WINNERS
BALANCE +15.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 22.22%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $7.93
P.O.T. 87.22%

:grin:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-25 01:42 ]</font>

[shy]

Qualifiers for 26/10

Toowoomba R4-2 Big Steve
Rosehill R2-5 Hasna
Moonee Valley R7-1 Northerly
Moonee Valley R7-2 Assertive Lad
Morphettville R6-4 Terminus Prince
Morphettville R7-6 Fireball
Gold Coast R8-1 Arakhan

[Equine Investor]

Qualifiers 25/10

Kyneton R8-12 Gillies Street (3RD)
Esk R6-7 Roman Country (UNPLACED)

20 SELECTIONS
4 WINNERS
BALANCE +13.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 20%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $7.93
P.O.T. 68.50%

[Equine Investor]

Results for 26/10

Toowoomba R4-2 Big Steve (2ND)
Rosehill R2-5 Hasna (WON $1.40)
Moonee Valley R7-1 Northerly (WON $3.70)
Moonee Valley R7-2 Assertive Lad (UNPLACED)
Morphettville R6-4 Terminus Prince (WON $2.60)
Morphettville R7-6 Fireball (WON $7.70)
Gold Coast R8-1 Arakhan (UNPLACED)

27 SELECTIONS
8 WINNERS
BALANCE +22.10 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 29.62%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.89
P.O.T. 81.85%

So Far So Good.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-27 00:30 ]</font>

[shy]

Qualifiers for 27/10

Sunshine Coast R6-5 Kazakh Beau
Hobart R5-6 Donna Majella
Hobart R6-5 Mislaid
Hobart R8-9 O'Connor Street

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 28/10

[Equine Investor]

Results for 27/10

Sunshine Coast R6-5 Kazakh Beau (UNPLACED)
Hobart R5-6 Donna Majella (2ND)
Hobart R6-5 Mislaid (UNPLACED)
Hobart R8-9 O'Connor Street (UNPLACED)

31 SELECTIONS
8 WINNERS
BALANCE +18.10 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 25.81%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.89
P.O.T. 58.39%

I have tried some additional filters which eliminated 12 selections but unfortunately also eliminated two winners at $7.90 and $7.70.
If we apply the rule of only backing horses with a 50% place strike rate or better so far it works out like this...

19 Selections
6 Winners
Strike Rate 31.58%
Balance +14.5 Units Profit
P.O.T. 76.32%

So it does increase the strike rate and also P.O.T. and even though it's a small sample and too early to draw any real conclusion, I feel it would also reduce the number of outs.

Food for thought as a 17.91% difference in regards to P.O.T. is massive!!!!!

:wink:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-28 06:58 ]</font>

[nevets]

nice work fellas....... what is it that price predictor does exactly ..please excuse my ignorance .......i stumbled across this post and i found it very interesting as ive always believed that last start winners are at the peak of their fitness and also if a trainer backs a horse up in 7 days he must consider him fit enough for it and some sort of chance .... cheers nevets

[becareful]

Equine Investor,

Small point - you may want to check your win divs calculation - I ran the selections through my system and come up with a win profit of $16.10 - email me if you want me to send you a copy of my results.

It is still early days but you may want to have a look at that $5 minimum I mentioned earlier. According to my calculations it cuts out 14 of the selections (leaving 17 bets) but you only lose $6.70 in divs so the profit goes from $16.10 to $23.40 which gives POT of 138%

[nevets]

hi again..... although i dont have acees to the records and information you guys seem to have ive done some system studies over my time (just for fun i might add ) and i really believe in setting a minimum price even if it is only a newspaper price (and i know how innacurate they can be ) and sometimes a maximum ...ie maybe it would be worthwile deleting those horses say over $20 ... i know those 32 and 59 dollar horses help but they are the exeption more than the rule.... i think..... i was gointo ask a question but i think ill leave it at that for the mo cheers ..nevets

[Equine Investor]

Well spotted becareful thankyou - yes I made an error and missed two losers off the balance so here are the amended stats.

31 SELECTIONS
8 WINNERS
BALANCE +16.10 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 25.81%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.89
P.O.T. 51.94%

nevets, feel free to ask anything you like - this forum is very open and friendly, it's all about sharing ideas and I have learnt so much off others in the last twelve months, I don't mind answering any serious question whatsoever.

:grin:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-28 19:43 ]</font>

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 29/10

[shy]

Qualifier for 30/10

Randwick R5-3 Laetitia

[shy]

qualifier for 31/10

Gosford R6-3 Cosmetic Crown

[Equine Investor]

Results for 30/10

Randwick R5-3 Laetitia (WON $2.80 $ $1.60)

32 SELECTIONS
9 WINNERS
BALANCE +17.90 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 28.13%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.54
P.O.T. 55.94%

[shy]

Qualifier for 01/11

Bordertown R5-1 Fox Helios

[Equine Investor]

Result for 31/10

Gosford R6-3 Cosmetic Crown (3rd)

33 SELECTIONS
9 WINNERS
BALANCE +16.90 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 27.27%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.54
P.O.T. 51.21%

[Mark]

Must say that I am impressed by these results. For years Ian Craig has been spruiking this idea (always after a winner) & I just thought he was full of it. EI, have you kept stats for e/w betting?
Keep up the good work.

[Equine Investor]

Hi Mark,

Quite right Ian Craig always says AFTER the fact - the fact that he knows this every time certainly makes me believe that he uses the system himself, as he always says it as the winner crosses the line not in post race comment etc.

If you pay attention to most callers you can actually pick what they've backed, usually by the attention they give to a runner mid race.

For instance there might be an odds on favourite running but they give more attention to the 7/1 shot which is running midfield!

I haven't kept longterm stats on eachway betting sorry - really need those online formguides.

Maybe some Price Predictor owners could let you know.

[Equine Investor]

Results for 01/11

Bordertown R5-1 Fox Helios (WON $1.70 & $1.60)

34 SELECTIONS
10 WINNERS
BALANCE +17.60 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 29.41%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.16
P.O.T. 51.76%

[shy]

Qualifiers for 2/11

Traralgon R4-5 Druid's Peak
Toowoomba R5-7 Alderniti Lad
Rosehill R5-8 Divine Lily
Rosehill R8-3 Cosmic Rays
Flemington R4-8 Gentle Genius
Flemington R6-1 Helenus
Flemington R7-7 Royal Code
Doomben R6-9 Archidamia
Ascot R4-2 Halo Magic

[becareful]

Mark,

I am keeping track of the results for this on the tipping competition which includes Place betting results. So far from the 34 selections there have been 17 placings at an average div. of $2.28 giving POT of 14.1% (or $4.80 profit at $1 level stakes betting). Just look for 7Days in the tipping competition rankings to see the latest results (you will have to look at the bottom of the rankings at the moment as it doesn't have enough tips yet to qualify). Of course these results are just for the raw system without the additional filters suggested by EI or myself.

[Mark]

Thanks Becareful, that's all I'm after.


:smile:

[shy]

Qualifiers for 03/11

Sunshine Coast R5-7 Go North To Alaska
Mornington R10-8 Rose Girl
Launceston R6-9 Reveche
Launceston R10-1 Creighton
Launceston R10-3 Bundalaguah

[Equine Investor]

Results for 2/11

Traralgon R4-5 Druid's Peak (UNPLACED)
Toowoomba R5-7 Alderniti Lad (UNPLACED)
Rosehill R5-8 Divine Lily (UNPLACED)
Rosehill R8-3 Cosmic Rays (WON $8.20 & $2.10)
Flemington R4-8 Gentle Genius (UNPLACED)
Flemington R6-1 Helenus (WON $1.90 & $1.30)
Flemington R7-7 Royal Code (2ND $1.60)
Doomben R6-9 Archidamia (2ND $2.80)
Ascot R4-2 Halo Magic (UNPLACED)

43 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +18.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 27.91%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 43.49%


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-03 02:10 ]</font>

[shy]

Qualifier for 04/11

Muswellbrook R8-2 Goodbye Day

[Equine Investor]

Delay in updating the results as the TAB results are offline yet again.

Very poor maintenance by TABcorp!

I have written a scathing email to my contact there and got the reply that "there must be something wrong with your browser or cache - try hitting refresh."

It's support like that which leaves little option but to look elsewhere these days.

[Equine Investor]

Results for 03/11

Sunshine Coast R5-7 Go North To Alaska (SCRATCHED)
Mornington R10-8 Rose Girl (UNPLACED)
Launceston R6-9 Reveche (UNPLACED)
Launceston R10-1 Creighton (UNPLACED)
Launceston R10-3 Bundalaguah (UNPLACED)

47 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +14.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 25.53%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 31.28%

[shy]

Qualifiers for 05/11

Muswellbrook R5-1 Shoemaker
Flemington R7-24 Requiem

[Equine Investor]

Results for 04/11

Muswellbrook R8-2 Goodbye Day (UNPLACED)

48 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +13.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 25.00%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 28.54%

We are slipping a little of late. :sad:

[BillBorric]

I have run this through my 6 year database and found that by fiddling with prices the best I could get was a 15% loss.

[shy]

qualifier for 06/11

Strathalbyn R2-4 Policia

[Equine Investor]

Results for 05/11

Muswellbrook R5-1 Shoemaker (2ND)
Flemington R7-24 Requiem (UNPLACED)

50 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +11.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 24.00%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 23.40%

[shy]

Qualifiers for 07/11

Flemington R4-17 Great Anna
Flemington R6-2 Hierogram
Flemington R7-7 Planchet

[Equine Investor]

Results for 06/11

Strathalbyn R2-4 Policia (3RD NTD)

51 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +10.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 23.53%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 20.98%


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-06 22:25 ]</font>

[shy]

Qualifier for 08/11

Goulburn R8-8 Take A Hint

[Equine Investor]

Results for 07/11

Flemington R4-17 Great Anna (SCRATCHED)
Flemington R6-2 Hierogram (UNPLACED)
Flemington R7-7 Planchet (UNPLACED)

53 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE +8.70 UNITS PROFIT
STRIKE RATE 22.64%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
P.O.T. 16.42%

Going down the toilet! But stuck in the S-BEND.
:sad:

[shy]

Qualifiers for 09/11

Toowoomba R6-4 Danu
Morphettville R4-12 La Paloma
Flemington R1-12 Kelshiki
Flemington R3-3 Palidamah
Flemington R6-16 Zvezda
Flemington R8-1 Hey Pronto
Flemington R9-4 To Be Fair
Doomben R3-4 Outback Rose
Doomben R5-2 Trailer
Doomben R5-10 Zacobba
Doomben R8-1 Digress
Doomben R8-5 Red Chip
Ascot R3-1 Blue Neon
Ascot R7-13 Suspicion

[Equine Investor]

Results for 08/11

Goulburn R8-8 Take A Hint (SCRATCHED)

[shy]

Qualifiers for 10/11

Sunshine Coast R6-2 Ours
Hobart R4-5 Asa Mac
Hobart R8-3 Cheque Book Blitz
Cranbourne R5-3 Molly Ellen

[Equine Investor]

Results for 09/11

Toowoomba R6-4 Danu (2ND $2.30)
Morphettville R4-12 La Paloma (UNPLACED)
Flemington R1-12 Kelshiki (SCRATCHED)
Flemington R3-3 Palidamah (UNPLACED)
Flemington R6-16 Zvezda (UNPLACED)
Flemington R8-1 Hey Pronto (UNPLACED)
Flemington R9-4 To Be Fair (UNPLACED)
Doomben R3-4 Outback Rose (UNPLACED)
Doomben R5-2 Trailer (UNPLACED)
Doomben R5-10 Zacobba (UNPLACED)
Doomben R8-1 Digress (UNPLACED)
Doomben R8-5 Red Chip (SCRATCHED)
Ascot R3-1 Blue Neon (UNPLACED)
Ascot R7-13 Suspicion (SCRATCHED)

64 SELECTIONS
12 WINNERS
BALANCE -2.30 UNITS LOSS
STRIKE RATE 18.75%
AVERAGE DIVIDEND $5.14
L.O.T. 3.59%

[Equine Investor]

Results for 10/11

Sunshine Coast R6-2 Ours (2ND $1.40)
Hobart R4-5 Asa Mac (UNPLACED)
Hobart R8-3 Cheque Book Blitz (2ND $2.10)
Cranbourne R5-3 Molly Ellen (WON $3.30)

68 SELECTIONS
13 WINNERS
BALANCE -3.00 UNITS LOSS
STRIKE RATE 19.12%
L.O.T. -4.41%

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 11/11

[shy]

Sorry for missing todays qualifiers... they were

Rockhampton R2-5 Rodeo High UNPLACED
Rockhampton R3-1 Bay Poet UNPLACED
Rockhampton R4-6 Sheshood UNPLACED
Rockhampton R5-3 Ima Baron UNPLACED
Rockhampton R7-4 With Intent UMPLACED
Rockhampton R*-3 Rapid City 2ND 4.90
Cessnock R7-5 Zipper's Son UNPLACED
Cessnock R7-6 Itanabit UNPLACED

[shy]

Qualifier for 13/11

Eagle Farm R6-1 How High Sir

[Equine Investor]

Results for 12/11/2002
Rockhampton R2-5 Rodeo High UNPLACED
Rockhampton R3-1 Bay Poet UNPLACED
Rockhampton R4-6 Sheshood UNPLACED
Rockhampton R5-3 Ima Baron UNPLACED
Rockhampton R7-4 With Intent UMPLACED
Rockhampton R*-3 Rapid City 2ND 4.90
Cessnock R7-5 Zipper's Son UNPLACED
Cessnock R7-6 Itanabit UNPLACED

76 SELECTIONS
13 WINNERS
BALANCE -11.00 UNITS LOSS
STRIKE RATE 17.10%
L.O.T. -14.47%

P.S. Thankyou Shy for posting the tips daily - very nice of you. I think after this Saturday we'll give it away unless things dramatically turn around, as this is going from bad to worse.
Unless someone else wants to take over and add filters - just let me know.

:sad: :sad: :sad:

My initial feeling was to run it up to 100 bets and then refine it, but I don't think it's going to be as fruitful as I first thought.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-12 22:18 ]</font>

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 13/11

Have to agree with your appraisal EI.

shy

[becareful]

Equine Investor,

It is still showing a profit with a simple price filter. If you exclude any runners where the starting price on Tabcorp was less than $7 then the stats are:

37 selections
5 winners
+9 units profit
Strike Rate 13.5%
Average Div $9.20
POT 24%

Of course this is much lower than it was a few weeks ago and could also be heading for a loss but it may be worth following for a bit longer?

[Equine Investor]

Thanks for the info becareful, just might be worth continuing for a little longer then.

I'll keep doing the stats as per your $7.00 cut-off point then.
Thanks.

[shy]

There are no qualifiers for 15/11

[shy]

Qualifiers for 16/11

Toowoomba R4-7 The Fonz
Sandown R5-2 Cool Azz
Sandown R5-4 Lawson's Storm
Sandown R7-1 Mr. Magoo
Gold Coast R6-8 Pride Of Weston
Eagle Farm R6-7 Desert Sashay
Eagle Farm R6-10 Yogi's Edition
Eagle Farm R7-8 Gentleman Caller
Ascot R3-2 Vain Zoe
Ascot R4-7 Clockwork Orange
Ascot R8-9 Grand Turismo

[xanadu]

Hi, I'm a new contributor to the forum and have followed your method with great interest. I, too, have monitored this method for several years and feel it has some merit but perhaps may require some refinement.
I would like to suggest that instead of resticting the price required, could you research what results are achieved with the following fine tuning:
- last start winner within 7 days down in weight and down in class and field strength.
These details are readily accessible utilising DFS(Daily Form Service) provided to NSW TAB customers.
It is also helpful for identifying a last start eye-catching run and then a more senior or acclomplished jockey replaces the current rider and the next start is down in class from the previous run.

[Equine Investor]

Results for 16/11 considering $7.00 cut-off.

I am taking the -1 minute price as you have to allow time for odds to updated and put the bet on.

Sandown R5-2 Cool Azz
Sandown R5-4 Lawson's Storm
Gold Coast R6-8 Pride Of Weston
Eagle Farm R6-7 Desert Sashay
Eagle Farm R6-10 Yogi's Edition
Eagle Farm R7-8 Gentleman Caller(WON $11.40)

43 selections
6 winners
+14.40 units profit
Strike Rate 13.95%
POT 33.49%

:wink:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-19 05:53 ]</font>

[luckylouie]

I know I'm adding to a basically dead topic but how about this for a thought? Look at horses that came 2nd or 3rd at last start 7 days ago. Maybe this will catch some good priced winners, horses that are on the way up and that the trainers feel are in fit enough condition to contest another race so soon.

[Bhagwan]

I have run this through the last 11 mnths

27.0 SR win
96.9% POT

43% SR place
19% POT

RULES
LSWin in 5-7 days
NSW & VIC Metro only
Going has to be fast or good
Pre-post newspaper price $4.00-23.00

There were 100 bets in 11 mnths. Betting all days of the week .

Sat only, produced 65 bets 119% POT

One could bet this plan each way & still show a profit.

Longest run of outs for the win was 17 & 8 for the place.

[kiwi]

Bhagwan have you tried 1-5 days used this filter during carnivals with some huge divvies!

[sportznut]

On 2003-04-11 06:12, Bhagwan wrote:
Sat only, produced 65 bets 119% POT


Yeah, I think a few of you guys might have come unstuck by betting midweek at out of town tracks. I'm a fan of the last start winner within 7 days, but I reckon it's a system for Metropolitan racing on Saturdays only!!! By the way, last Saturday, Under Suspicion in Brisbane paid $13.40 and Malta in Sydney paid $15.40.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-07-31 10:51 ]</font>

[Marcus]

Memories ... looks very interesting.

[partypooper]

now "THIS" is what this forum is all about ,...... thanks guys some really good info there!! good luck tomorrow!