Should I bet this? Very keen.

[Onion]

G'day lads,
I have been doing my own Saturday Ratings for about 3 years now and database them religiously. They are quite good and better than Prepost.

Anyways about 2 years ago I was looking at this system using my top raters with a few filters and gave up after a slight run of outs. I kept the notes as it was still in profit and rechecked it this week and was startled to see the results as I know this game is damn hard to make a buck or two long term.

I am very confident as it has hit back with a vengeance and this year so far it is showing a 30% profit. The filters are the same as 2 years ago, hasn't been changed. Average bets are about 3 a week and the results are one tote only (so plenty of scope for much bigger returns). All price ranges are showing a profit too (even under $3.00).

I am not interested in selling anything, just want to know from experienced punters if I should give this one a hit. I am quite happy to send someone an excel sheet with selections in order and graphs for further detailed analysis.

Results are below..

Selections 474
Wins 179
WR $595
WSR 38%
WPOT 26%
Places 338
PR $502
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60
3 LROs 15,11,9

and since I shelved it (Last 2 years portion)..

Selections 303
Wins 114
WR $371
WSR 38%
WPOT 22%
Places 215
PR $320
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20 (same 3)
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60 (same 3)
3 LROs 15,11,9 (same 3)

As you can see win/place strike rate remains at 38%/71%.
Any advice much appreciated.

[crash]

Without the system rules, there's not much to advise on.

[darkydog2002]

Onions.

From the figures it looks a goer to me.

My advice is to take the plunge and go for it betting say 1 % of bank without reducing.

Good luck.
darky.

[Chrome Prince]

G'day lads,
I have been doing my own Saturday Ratings for about 3 years now and database them religiously. They are quite good and better than Prepost.

Anyways about 2 years ago I was looking at this system using my top raters with a few filters and gave up after a slight run of outs. I kept the notes as it was still in profit and rechecked it this week and was startled to see the results as I know this game is damn hard to make a buck or two long term.

I am very confident as it has hit back with a vengeance and this year so far it is showing a 30% profit. The filters are the same as 2 years ago, hasn't been changed. Average bets are about 3 a week and the results are one tote only (so plenty of scope for much bigger returns). All price ranges are showing a profit too (even under $3.00).

I am not interested in selling anything, just want to know from experienced punters if I should give this one a hit. I am quite happy to send someone an excel sheet with selections in order and graphs for further detailed analysis.

Results are below..

Selections 474
Wins 179
WR $595
WSR 38%
WPOT 26%
Places 338
PR $502
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60
3 LROs 15,11,9

and since I shelved it (Last 2 years portion)..

Selections 303
Wins 114
WR $371
WSR 38%
WPOT 22%
Places 215
PR $320
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20 (same 3)
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60 (same 3)
3 LROs 15,11,9 (same 3)

As you can see win/place strike rate remains at 38%/71%.
Any advice much appreciated.

Onion,

It's a crying shame you gave up, it seems very apeeling ;)

Your overall profit is 121 units
Divide that by $11.50, (max divvy) is 10.52 winners making up the profit.
Your average win dividend is $3.32
This gives 36.44 winners making up the profit.

Your system only relies on 28% of the profit from outsiders and 72% from the average dividend.

So far excellent!

Combine this with Betfair SP and you probably have a 35% to 40% win edge.

You are also relying on 6.8 placegetters for the place component.

My feedback -

Looks the goods, as long as you can withstand the outs and not give up, this looks like it has legs, very nice legs too ;)

It is rare to find such high POT not relying on longshots and rarer to find this kind of system that returns a statistical place profit not generated from one longshot placegetter.

You're definitely onto something because the win and place dynamics reflect it's not an anomoly or fluke.

Bet wise and prosper :D

[crash]

Flaming a new member. Five day's suspension.

[Onion]

'f' or 'c' word as personal attack = suspension. No need for that sort of language on this site. Seven days' suspension.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Onion
I have found the systems with only a few bets a week, like yours, tend to perform more consistantly rather than plans with heaps of selections.

Cheers.

Edited out anything not relevant to the betting topic.
Moderator 1.

[jfc]

I love such statistics.

Applying Kelly Staking over the 777 bets:

24.3% POT
0.107 Kelly Fraction
2.60% Bank growth per bet
26.96 Bets to Double Bank
475 mill =Bank Multiple


So a bank of only $2.11 would have netted over a billion dollars profit.

[crash]

Flaming a member is flaming a member. There is no justification. Full stop.
Moderator.

[reded]

I love such statistics.


So a bank of only $2.11 would have netted over a billion dollars profit.
Hmm I dont understand what if the 1st bet loses

[jfc]

Hmm I dont understand what if the 1st bet loses


There are many articles about on the Kelly Criterion + Kelly Fraction for anyone new to this.

Now according to the stated results the Kelly Fraction would be 10.7%. Of the Bank.

So the 1st bet would be ~23 cents.

And you would expect to win ~5 cents.

And double your bank of $2.11 in ~27 bets.

Keep doubling and that billion is within your grasp.

Kinda' like this well known system:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Half_of_the_Chessboard#Second_Half_of_the_Chessboard

[Wunfluova]

JFC, I think you will find the total sample was 474 bets i.e. the 303 bet sample was contained within the 474 bets.

[jfc]

JFC, I think you will find the total sample was 474 bets i.e. the 303 bet sample was contained within the 474 bets.

My oversight.

In that case the bank would only multiply:

837,676 times over.

[Onion]

Hey lads, back again after that little suspension. All good.

Done a few alterations to it.
Now using 5 systems using my top raters. SM only. One tote only.
All 5 systems have had 200+ bets, returning over 25% profit, 25% win strike rate. So I can be fairly confident (I hope) that they will continue. Any and all filters logically apllied and were showing a loss on each system used over 250+ bets before filtered.
Except for one which has had a small sample but is returning a ridiculous profit on both win and place and is logical and continues to perform that I had to include it.

Any selection in multiple systems is used only once.

So I went through 05-07. Looks good :

610 bets
197 winners (32.3%)
384 places (63.0%)
$847 win return (38.9% POT)
$651 place return (6.7%POT) - not interested in place betting this at all.

(2005 214b-74w-$314)
(2006 226b-79w-$327)
(2007 170b-44w-$206)

What I have found encouraging is that WSR has dropped (by 7 winners per 100 races) but PSR has gone up since 2006 (that includes 08 data following) and that the return is still over 26% POT. (Late 07 was bad - EI!)

Now 2008 results - so system locked in and checked results from 2008 year so far (had a database of ratings and hadn't checked results until now deliberately)

2008 75b-23w-$102 (36% POT)

So as you can see it continues to perform. I can see only one reason why (most databases everyone can access - ie. PP Prices, Unitab ratings etc, etc) Eventually what is found to be profitable in time will diminish as successful punters bet it and the odds come in or the books they but with crunch the prices. I have data that confirms this (all good systems I have had using PP Prices etc, eventually have regressed to almost not worth betting on or not at all.) This system uses my own ratings and databases from it that no-one can access, I believe the only way to be highly profitable long term. Especially now where backdata can be bought readily and analysed easily in the computer age.

So I'd be happy in the knowledge to bet this on 3 totes (0.33% of account on each tote - non reducing), never going within cooee of a parasitic bookmaker. They will just crunch my prices. That is why they want successful punters to bet Top Fluc early in the day. Gives them time to position themselves. (Some on here I reckon are books in disguise - I won't mention who... with the awful systems I see thrown out there on here, laughable!!!)

Anyways, the profits continue, (would be much better if I didn't include the 5 months I reckon were affected by Equine Influenza). The results seem hard to believe for me, but they are right there, seem logical and I cannot deny them.

Should I unload now? At an average 4 bets per Saturday I am thinking about waiting and watching the next 250 selections as no sequence of 250 bets has returned less than 18% POT. This would take another year. I bet the 3 selections last week and all lost. I didn't bet any yesterday and the 3 selections had 2 1sts and a 2nd returning $10 on the win.

[stugots]

i would suggest you start live testing onion, as if ive only learnt one thing about system betting its that until you can get them churning out a profit that you can then withdraw & magically turn into goods or services you may find useful, said systems arnt worth the proverbial paper they are printed on

sound like we have a similar approach in some respects, i also self generate a set of ratings which are then filtered, & back the top rater, on average betting 2 races out of 8, but operating 7 days a week on the 3-4 main meets

can have a shocking run of outs (going thru one at the minute) but to date always bounces back & betting live has been generating solid returns for sometime, not going to fund my retirement anytime soon tho

the question then becomes 'when do i up the stakes?', in my case when ive turned the starting $1000 into $5000, maybe then...maybe $10000 would be safer

[Crackone]

Start betting how much data do you want, 4 years is plenty. If you want to increase your pofit 10 to 30 % then get a Betfair account!!!!.

eg yesterday
Rosehill R3 #2 Synonym paid $2.30 on Unitab ($2.60 best odds?) bookmakers drifted out to 3's, betfiar $3.60. Last traded at $3.65 traded at $3.75 just before jump.

Cheers.

[jfc]

685 Bets
32.117% S/R
38.540% POT

Kelly staking with a start bank of only $1 would have been expected to produce:

$11,088,724,396,411.90

But a $10 bank would have ended up exceeding total global wealth of a mere $100 trillion.

[stugots]

685 Bets
32.117% S/R
38.540% POT

Kelly staking with a start bank of only $1 would have been expected to produce:

$11,088,724,396,411.90

But a $10 bank would have ended up exceeding total global wealth of a mere $100 trillion.

congratulations

[Onion]

World domination http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif gee... it'll be nice if it continues... got it all planned.

I think I'll just stop @ $3,333 on 3 totes in around 5-6 years time and collect a cool $750,000 or so a year.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Onion,
I feel a punter gets a truer feel for their creation once the money goes down on the horses nose.

I feel you have tested it enough so far , time to go the next stage, putting the money down.
It tends to have a different feel to it once this happens.

Make sure your bets are low to start with, say 1% of bank adjusted up or down after say ,every 20 bets if one wishes to be more cautious.

It's the beginning of a punters betting sequence where he is the most vunerable so its very important to try & keep the initial bets low & controllable as possable.

One will at times experienced more success betting small amounts, than when they are betting larger amounts for whatever reason.

Cheers.