Pricing - Ratings - Predictions - Class

[Chrome Prince]

Here's a quick and dirty, yet surprisingly accurate way of coming up with some pretty good selections. Betting them wisely creates a profit.

The System

Note the class of the current race.
For each horse note down it's average price in that class of race for past starts.
The average price is converted to a percentage, which becomes a rating out of 100.
Horses with no starts at the class, become a rating out of 100 given the field size (a default value).
Then price up the field to 100% book.
Back the overs and lay the unders.

Examples

The Robert Sangster Stakes at Morphettville 29/3/2008

Horse
Miss Andretti   (rating 18.25)
St Trinians   (default rating 7.69)
Lucky Diva   (rating 3.64)
Miss Fantabulous   (rating 3.30)
Juste Momente   (rating 9.26)   Winner
Zipanese   (rating 2.61)
Dollops   (default rating 7.69)
Emilydelago   (default rating 7.69)
Bel Mer   (rating 4.81)
Serious Speed   (rating 9.40)
Sleek Chassis   (rating 9.90)
Gibraltar Campion   (default rating 7.69)
Spectacula   (default rating 7.69)

Pricing
Miss Andretti   $5.48 vs tote $1.40
St Trinians   $13.00 vs tote $18.80
Lucky Diva   $27.47 vs tote $38.40
Miss Fantabulous   $30.30 vs tote $41.50
Juste Momente   $10.80 vs tote $31.60   Winner
Zipanese   $38.31 vs tote $32.70
Dollops   $13.00 vs tote $36.60
Emilydelago   $13.00 vs tote $125.40
Bel Mer   $20.79 vs tote $6.30
Serious Speed   $10.64 vs tote $13.70
Sleek Chassis   $10.10 vs tote $32.30
Gibraltar Campion   $13.00 vs tote $66.60
Spectacula   $13.00 vs tote $144.60

Forgetting the horses whose price was devised from the default rating we have:

Overs
Lucky Diva &nbsp; $27.47 vs tote $38.40 <font color=blue>Back</font>
Miss Fantabulous &nbsp; $30.30 vs tote $41.50<font color=blue>Back</font>
Juste Momente &nbsp; $10.80 vs tote $31.60 &nbsp; Winner<font color=blue>Back</font>
Serious Speed &nbsp; $10.64 vs tote $13.70<font color=blue>Back</font>
Sleek Chassis &nbsp; $10.10 vs tote $32.30<font color=blue>Back</font>

Unders
Miss Andretti &nbsp; $5.48 vs tote $1.40<font color=red>Lay</font>
Zipanese &nbsp; $38.31 vs tote $32.70<font color=red>Lay</font>
Bel Mer &nbsp; $20.79 vs tote $6.30<font color=red>Lay</font>

[Chuck]

very interesting, thanks Chrome ;)

i suspect more reliable in the upper class races?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, there is a fair bit of room for variation, I use this method solely to pick out outstanding value and poor value.

The outstanding poor value was Miss Andretti and Bel Mer, the outstanding value was Sleek Chassis and Juste Momente.

It's just a guide really, but often highlights the not so obvious like Bel Mer and Juste Momente.

When the prices are slightly over or under, I leave it alone, as the ratings are not supposed to be highly accurate, just a tool to highlight or flag the unseen.

[MrFugly]

Interesting system tip Chrome, thanks.

Although I was wondering;

'The average price is converted to a percentage, which becomes a rating out of 100.'

Is this the average price converted to a percentage of your 'standard' 115 market %?

Cheers, MrFugly.

[Chrome Prince]

Interesting system tip Chrome, thanks.

Although I was wondering;

'The average price is converted to a percentage, which becomes a rating out of 100.'

Is this the average price converted to a percentage of your 'standard' 115 market %?

Cheers, MrFugly.

If the average of all starting prices is $2.00 for example, then converted, it becomes 50%, so the rating is 50.
The market percentage used is 100%.

It's not meant to be an accurate pricing guide really, just something that identifies quickly those bad bets and those that might be value just under the radar.

You'll find this on newstands next month, or sold on the other site - that's a $1.01 no risk bet I'll guarantee!

Horses for courses :(