Don Scott Odds-On

[michaelg]

Here's a system that I've been betting using Don Scott's ratings:

1 ) Must be rated at $1.50 or shorter.
2 ) Must have won last start or ran second.

I'm showing a POT of slightly higher than 10% with Place betting. I haven't really checked Win betting but there have been two winners that have paid double-figures on NSW TAB.

The drawback with the system is that not only can the divvies be skinny but there are many days without any selections, and because of this I often have not bothered to check.

However, there are 5 selections today so I'll list them and see what happens.

Belmont R7 no.1 - Marasco
Bendigo R3 no.4 - Mammy Jolson
Eagle Farm R5 no.3 - Fravashi
Flemington R3 no.6 - Toulouse Lautrec
Morphetville R4 no.3 - Favelon's Dream.

[Chrome Prince]

Not a bad method there.

The win loss is only 1.43%
The place loss is only 2.16%

Getting best tote or Betfair, it's a simple winner.

[michaelg]

Thanks for that, Chrome.

Out of interest, Toulouse Lautrecs' final Place trade on Betfair was $1.21 yet it paid $1.04 on NSW TAB. I've found in almost every case that the lower the TAB Place divvy the greater advantage percentagewise using Betfair. The greatest I've seen was TAB $1.04 yet $1.31 (5% take-out not included) with Betfair.

It's Betfair for me now with this method which generally selects very short-priced horses, and your figures show it should be profitable.

I forgot to mention that if a selection has won its last three starts then it becomes a non-selection.

[Chrome Prince]

michael, I'll look into this further for both of us :)

I'll keep you posted, we might be able to expand this internationally and boost the number of bets.

I think you'd have at least 5 bets a day.

If you limit it to horses starting within 14 days it shows a slight profit, but also halves the number of bets.

From a lay perspective, horses that did not run first or second last start but are less than $1.51, it shows a 12.27% loss on turnover and 6.32% place loss.

I'd suggest any flat race would qualify and it's pretty easy to spot the horses that will trade that low.

[Chrome Prince]

O.K.

Flat racing U.K.

Win loss 2% @ bookies SP
Each Way loss 1.90% @ bookies SP

Jumps racing U.K.

Win loss 1.60% @ bookies SP
Each Way loss 0.90%

LOAD UP

:D

Thanks for this idea Michael.

[Chrome Prince]

There is one possible tonight.

Tramore 12:50 Kharsya
Last start second
1m4f
Good to Firm
Bookies have it at $1.61
The challengers have run 4th and fifth last start.

Will be watching movements on course @ sporting life.

[Chrome Prince]

Kharsya trading at $1.51 on Betfair.

[michaelg]

Chrome, it's firmed to $1.43.

I'll back it for a place.

[Chrome Prince]

:D

[michaelg]

In spite of all the numerous races today there are no selections.

[Chrome Prince]

1:55 Kilbeggan Nassaro 10/11 with the papers. (Betfair $1.97)
2:15 Listowel Callow Lake 1/2 with the papers. (Betfair $1.66)

At least one will qualify ;)

I want to find a couple of these beauties that didn't run 1st or 2nd to lay :D

[michaelg]

Chrome, here's another $1.50 limit you might be interested in. The rules are:

1 ) Neural CF and PR categories at a setting of 3, all others at 0.
2 ) Maximum price of $1.50.
3 ) Won last start or ran second.

Unfortunately I can't get into the neural site at the moment. It went offline (for me anyway) about 30 minutes ago. But I was able to check Sunday's racing and part of Saturday's.

The results so far are promising.

There have been a total of 10 selections for 9 placings with a return (Unitab) of $14.10. There were 3 winners for a return of $8.80.

Of these, there were three selections that won last start for 3 placings with a return of $5.40 and 2 winners with a return $7.10.

Interestingly, there were 7 horses at a maximum rated price of $1.50 that did not win or ran second at last start - all 7 horses were beaten, but one of them started at double figures.

When I can get into the neural site I will investigate further.

[michaelg]

I've been having problems with the neural website. However, after lengthy delays I've now been able to determine today's selections for the Don Scott method. So far there have been 3 selections and all three have placed, but only one winner of $2.10.

There is one more selection:
Belmont R9 no.1 - Marasco.

[TWOBETS]

The neural site has been crawling for days now. It must be all the traffic following your new system!

[michaelg]

I meant to ask if anyone else was having trouble with the site but forgot to do so.

Thanks, Two Bets.

Hopefully Marasco will not spoil today's results.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michaelg,
Looks like a logical plan, well done.

You may like to check this out as an extra filter.

RULES
Neural CF & PR @ 3
Must be $1.50 & less

.Must be 100-96 pts on UniTAB

. Delete runners with 2+ wins in a row instead of 3.

Bet for a place only.

Wed 4/6/08 results.
7 from 7
Divs
$1.60 2.00 2.00 2.20 1.80 1.10 2.00

Ret $12.70
O/L $7.00
Prof $9.70 = 135.5% POT

I ignored its LS position
.Of the horses that ran 1st or 2nd LS, only 1 from 3 got up $2.00plc
There was an initial 11 posabilities at $1.50 before the filters were placed over it.
.The 3 horses with 95pts & less, were all unplaced.

.There was 1 -100ptr horse that had 2 wins on end & was unplaced.

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

Your changes do look promising. However, according to your figures the profit should be $5.70, not $9.70 which is still an excellent result.

I'm checking today's selections using your suggestions but unfortunately it seems the neural website is now very slow.

However, before it played-up I was able to check Geelong. There are 3 selections:

Race 1 no 6 - Skipped Bail. - it ran second paying $1.60.
Race 4 no.2 - Swiss Ball
Race 9 no.6 - Slip Of The Tongue.

If/when the site is accessible I will list any further selections

[michaelg]

Here are the additional selections:

Townsville R2 no.2 - Jerrylee
York R2 no.10 - Princess Irini
York R3 no.6 - Dilga Diamond
York R6 no.3 - Majobe Magic
York R7 no.6 - Intanbu.

[TWOBETS]

G'day Michaelg,
After 45 freaking minutes the page finally downloaded and I don't think York R7 #6 is a qualifier. Mind you I'd grow a 3 inch beard if I was to wait for the page to refresh and check the data.

What the heck is wrong with that site ?

[Mancunian]

G'day TWOBETS,
FYI I'm not having any probs with R & S site at all (touch wood)
According to my interpretation of the Bhagwan suggestions to Michaels original idea - I would have had York R7#6 as a selection.

*******************************

Thanks Bhagwan and Michaelg for yet another promising selection method altho divvies may not be big, the S/rate looks as tho it may give us a lot of opportunity with all ups, parlays etc.
My mind boggles at how much time you must spend in getting to these offbeat ideas.

Cheers .......Mancunian

[michaelg]

Hi, Two Bets.

York race 7 no.6 - its neural CF price was $1.18 and it also had 96 points on Unitab, and it didn't win its last two starts. I think those are the rules for the method?

Hopefully the neural webmaster is aware of the problem and will do something about it. I'll probably look at the method using the CP category because I seem to think that someone on this forum (I think it may have been Wesmip1) had a data base which showed the CP algorithym had the smallest loss. But if the site keeps on crawling I might not be able to.

From today's 7 selections (assuming York race 7 no.6 was a selection) there were 4 successes for a minimal loss of $0.10.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for the kind words Mancunian.

If one wishes for the better place divs, I feel Betfair is the answer.
The differences can be huge percentage wise.
Example
$1.10 on TAB $1.36 Betfair
1.60 TAB $2.00 Betfair.

What I like to do is convert the selections win price & convert it to fractional odds then divide this figure by 4 ,then add 1pt which will give us the fair price one should try & target.
e.g.
$4.00 win price = Fractional odds 3/1 / 4 = .75 + 1 = $1.75 is the fair price one should try & target for the place div.

Take any less & one is betting under its true value & its a strong idea not to bet the selection if the value does not present itself even if it does get up for us.
With Betfair one can try & hunt for a stronger price which one cant do with the TABs.

Another technique that can work well with place betting is to bet to price.
This is done by having a takeout figure say $10 a race.
We now divide the price on offer into this figure,
e.g. $10 / $1.75 = O/L $5.71 (you will note that such an outlay can only be done using Betfair using the utility tools like Bet Trader Pro or Faibot.

No.2
$10 / $2.20 = O/L $4.54

We are making the assumption that lower prices generally get up more often than longer prices.
Generally place betting usually ends up breaking even or a slight loss.
By betting to price , it usually increases the final return.
Try it out on some past results of at least 50 bets to see if there is a difference.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

Thanks for advice Bhagwan


I'm still steeling myself to get into Betfair. At this stage I'll try your other 2 suggestions and compare them for a while.

Cheers....Mancunian

[michaelg]

I give up with the neurals. For the past 30 minutes I've been struggling with it to get today's selections. I've managed Grafton and half of Swan Hill.

The selections (so far) are:
Grafton R3 no.5 - Trev's Delight.
Swan Hill R3 no.7 - Mega Star Milly
Swan Hill R4 no.1 - Canhedance.

I might try again a little later.

Bhagwan, I looked at your method of prices for Place betting some time ago with the fave. I added 10% to the calculated price and tried to get that on Betfair. However, the Win price was always changing so I wasn't sure if I was going to get overs or unders. I eventually stopped.

[michaelg]

I've been able to look at Ipswich but not the remainder of Swan Hill:

Ipswich R2 no.1 - lost
Ipswich R3 no.10 - lost
Ipswich R4 no.3 - Snooker McCue
Ipswich R9 no.1 - Music Lover.

From the total of 7 races, 3 race have now been run for three losers!!!

[Mancunian]

I've been able to look at Ipswich but not the remainder of Swan Hill:

Ipswich R2 no.1 - lost
Ipswich R3 no.10 - lost
Ipswich R4 no.3 - Snooker McCue
Ipswich R9 no.1 - Music Lover.

From the total of 7 races, 3 race have now been run for three losers!!!Hiya michaelg,
I'm still not having probs with R and S Neural pages through Mozilla Firefox, I remember now I used to have trouble sometimes through Internet Explorer. After I've sent this I'll check that way again and let you know.

Main purpose of this was to say I didn't get the same selections as you picked, and wondered if I'm missing something or on the wrong track.
I go to Neurals - change the preference settings all to zero except for CF and PR which I set to 3 as advised by Bhagwan.
I then select only those that are $1.50 or less and test against the Unitab rating for 96-100 pts. Does this seem right ?
Having done this on todays races I showed the following differences to you - SWH R4#1 PR = $2.05
IPSW R2#1 PR = $1.80
IPSW R9#1 PR = $2.70
All the others I had exactly the same as you.

Note the first 95 pointer I have sighted since doing this for the last couple of days Te Aroha R3#1 won paying 3.90/1.40 VIC TAB, I might keep an eye on these for a while to see if they may be of any value.

Cheers.......Mancunian

[michaelg]

Hi, Mancunian.

I'm still having problems with the website. I'm using Internet Explorer but when I also try Firefox it more than not won't even assess the R & S home page.

Your rules to the method are correct. Don't forget that if a selection has won its last two starts then it does not qualify.

Unfortunately I cannot currently check the accuracy of my selections.

I remember that when the neural website was updated a couple of years ago that I was having a problem. I seem to think it was the figures were different when I used Explorer and Firefox. I contacted the webmaster who confirmed there was a problem and that it would be rectified.

I hope this hasn't again happened.

If you can assess the website with both Explorer and Firefox can you check that the figures tally?

Thanks.
Michael.

[Mancunian]

Hi, Mancunian.

IIf you can assess the website with both Explorer and Firefox can you check that the figures tally?

Thanks.
Michael.Michael
Checked out my access through IE and it is OK too (and good response times)

The figures in both Firefox and IE are identical.

I prob will have enough time to do Sat races so will post my findings here for further comparisons......cheers ..manc

[michaelg]

Thanks for checking that, Mancunian.

I think it was on Monday that I downloaded a new anti-virus program, and if I remember correctly that was when I had my problems with the R & S website. If it continues tomorrow I will delete the program and see if that solves the problem. I'm having no trouble with the neurals now but that might be because there would be little traffic at this time (7.45 p.m).

I've checked today's selections. The problem is that the neurals did not load the scratchings so I had to manually input them. The scratchings reduced the prices to $1.50 or less, which unfortunately made them genuine selections. In fact, the neurals even now still ignore the scratchings which I think has never happened before.

From today's 7 selections there were only 3 successes for a loss of $2.40, which is not very promising.

[Mancunian]

I've checked today's selections. The problem is that the neurals did not load the scratchings so I had to manually input them. The scratchings reduced the prices to $1.50 or less, which unfortunately made them genuine selections. In fact, the neurals even now still ignore the scratchings which I think has never happened before.

bummer ! I was thinking that this was a situation where I could pick 'em early without worrying about the scratchings.

Oh well, I can still do the early selection process and then check the impact of scratchings closer to the event.

Life sure wasn't meant to be easy !

later......

[michaelg]

Mancunian, if you've got the time would you list today's selections?

I'm still having problems assessing the neurals, even after uninstalling my anti-virus program.

I was able to look at Randwick before the neurals "crashed". I've come up with the two selections:

Race 1 no.3 - Noble Edict
Race 2 No.2 - Be Positive.

Thanks.

[TWOBETS]

Michealg the site was just fine up to 9:12am and then crunch. It must be traffic related. Methinks they need to get with the times. Don't like to moan though cause it's such a great site.

[Mancunian]

Mancunian, if you've got the time would you list today's selections?


Did a prelim look last night - my access seems OK still so should post final complete listings (after scratchings accounted for) in about half an hour- say by 1100
...manc

[Mancunian]

Sorry chaps, took a bit longer than I expected due to I also suffered a couple of timeouts on R and S (surprise !)
Haven't done Belmont and TWB yet but here is list of all others - after scratchings :
Chelt R1 #1
G'Cst R2 #11
R'wick R1 #3
R'wick R2 #2
S.Hill R3 #1
TeRapa R1 #1 already run (won 3.20/1.80 Unitab)
TeRapa R3 #1
Trentham R5 #1
No selections for E.Farm, Flem, N'castle,Tamworth.
Happy punting
will post Belmont and TWB shortly
cheers.....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

And Finally .............
Belmont - no selections.
TWB R1 #4.
TWB R2 #4.
TWB R3 #7.
TWB R6 #11.
For added interest
Swan Hill Race 1 #2 only missed because it was 95 pts on Unitab,
Trentham had some others under $1.50 but the races didn't have Unitab ratings. These were R2 #11, R9 #4, R10 #2.
Will just see how they go.

Later....M

[michaelg]

Thanks, Mancunian.

So far there have been 4 races run for 3 successes paying a total of $5.90 here on NSW TAB.

Let's hope it continues.

When I can again access the neural site I'll inform the webmaster of the problem just in case he might not be aware of it.

[Mancunian]

Results (NSW TAB Divs)
Chelt R1 #1 2nd - 1.40
G'Cst R2 #11 2nd - 1.50
R'wick R1 #3 Won 4.10/1.90
R'wick R2 #2 3rd NTD
S.Hill R3 #1 2nd - 1.40
TeRapa R1 #1 Won 3.70/2.20
TeRapa R3 #1 Unplaced
Trentham R5 #1 3rd - 2.00
TWB R1#4 Won 2.70/1.50
TWB R2#4 3rd - 1.50
TWB R3#7 Won 5.70/2.10
TWB R6#11 Won 4.60/1.70

TOTAL -Win - outlay $12 return $20.80 profit $8.80
-Place - outlay $12 return $17.20 profit $5.20.

How about that - early days yet, but looks very promising and the percentage of winners is encouraging could be worth considering a 1x4 type bet, but this may be a freak result.
Well done Michael and Bhagwan

Cheers..... Mancunian

[michaelg]

Yes, Mancunian, a very good day.

Since Thursday when we first listed the selections here there have been 26 selections for a disappointing strike rate of 61.5% (16 successes). One would expect that their prices would be very skinny as their CF price is a maximum of $1.50 but Place betting is showing a POT of slightly under 8% which is quite encouraging. There have also been 7 winners for a POT of 11%.

Yesterday I e-mailed the neural webmaster to let him know of the problem just in case he was not aware of it. If I can't access the site later this morning I will come back and ask you to do it again.

Thanks,
Michael.

[michaelg]

Here are today's selections except for Kalgoorlie which I'll hopefully be able to post later, if any.

Pakenham R1 no.6 - Scion
Swan Hill R4 no.4 - El Seigneur
Sapphire Coast R5 no.4 - Just Four Boys
Sun Coast R4 no.2 - Hit The Road
Hobart R2 no.3 - Green Rises

[michaelg]

There are two selections from Kalgoorlie:

Race 1 no.6 - Maquis
Race 3 no.6 - Foretold.

[Crackone]

I think it was on Monday that I downloaded a new anti-virus program, and if I remember correctly that was when I had my problems with the R & S website. Hi michaelg if the it was AVG free program it slowed my computer down heaps (web pages), I disabled the Link scanner and works OK now.

PS just tried the nutral site very slow

[Bhagwan]

If one wished to run the plan the night before without using the UniTAB ratings...
So as the bets could be placed the night before, due to maybe work commitments.

Maybe try adding $ + CF set at 3

Average prize money generally reflects a horses class & therefore its current form should hold longer than a lesser class horse.

Doing it this way also means one may miss a few selections due to scatchings , but overall, its SR should be approx the same.

One should find the site running much faster at night time as well.

Further research may be needed to confirm this approach .

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Crackone, I used to have AVG which caused no problems. I've changed it to PC Tools because my Windows won't accept the new AVG version.

Yesterday I uninstalled PC Tools to see if that would fix the problem but it didn't. I've now checked the neurals and it seems okay - fingers crossed.

Bhagwan, I've already looked at the $ algorithym seperately and also in concert with CF but so far have been unable to come up with anything worthwhile. I think it was Wesmip1 whose data base showed the $ had the highest Win strike rate of the 12 categories but was disappointing in terms of money returned when compared with some of the others.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to mention that it would be a strong idea to stretch the min price to $1.55 so as to allow for any possible scratchings, if there are any on the day.

Night before Rules.
. CF + $ + PR all set at 3

. Neural rated price to be $1.55 & less.

. Bet for a Place only.

. Delete any runners that have won their last 2 or more starts.

We do not take into account any scratchings or UniTAB ratings.
All bets can be placed the night before.

This could be handy for busy punters.
It will be interesting to see if the average divs start falling.

I was wondering Micheal if you wouldnt mind keeping an average div tally to see if indeed this may be the case, because it has been mentioned on this site in the past, that they feel their divs changed for the worst once they put certain plans go up on this site.
Personally I think its just a coincidence rather than a conspiricy, but I could be wrong.
Lets see what happens, we should know by having batches of 30 results & comparing batches.

I feel most punters will drop most new plans the day it has 1 or 2 bad days in a row.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, I'll give it a go.

I'll start a new thread with the selections. I'll also identify those that have 96-plus unitab points, who knows?

[Bhagwan]

Sun 8/6/08
There was only one qualifier for the day.

Swan Hill
R4/4 El Seignor
$6.40 / 2.60

[michaelg]

Out of interest I had a look at today's selections because with so many neetings it would be expected to provide a few selections, unfortunately it didn't.

Belmont R1 no.2 - Vizard
Belmont R3 no.3 - Arcadia

The following horse did not win or run second at the last start, but it won its previous race. We'll see how it goes...
Toowoomba R5 no.5 - Tripitz.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's two selections won for a total return of $4.10 and $2.90. The unplaced at last start (Tripitz) ran second paying $1.10 for the Place.

Two selections today:
Hobart R4 no.5 - Gee Gees Patriarch
Kalgoorlie R2 no.4 - Misty Business.

[michaelg]

A bad day yesterday - from the two selections there was one placegetter paying $1.10.

One selection today:
Muswellbrook R2 no.7 - Jade Maizcay.