CF and $ Neurals

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, its pleasing to know that El Seigneur would have been today's selection, it was also promising that it was in Unitab's 96 point range.

Tomorrow's selections are:
Belmont R4 no.5 - Testa Royale
Gosford R1 no.5 - Forty Days
Mortlake R2 no.1 - Dauphin Cheval*
Murray Bridge R2 no.5 - Lightly Spiced*
Murray Bridge R5 no.6 - Kintyre Spirit*

* = 96-plus Unitab points.

[Bhagwan]

Yes Micheal, it is an encouraging outcome.

We shall see if the 96ptrs makes for more consistancy .
Sometimes, adding an outside filter to such set ups, helps things along.

We should have an idea if it is so, after say a batch of 150 bets.

We shall see.

Cheers.

[Jimmy]

Hi guys, good food for thought

Just a query,
I get 7 selections using the rules not just 1 for Sunday. Not a criticism just making sure I was working them out correctly and not missing an important factor.

Hobart R2 Green Rises
Kalgoolie R1 Maquis and R3 Foretold
Pakenham R1 Scion
Sapphire C R5 Just Four Boys
Sunshine C R4 Hit The Road
Swan Hill R4 El Seigneur

I do get similiar to Michael's selections today

[michaelg]

Thanks, Jimmy.

Bhagwan, I've checked the figures and agree with Jimmy except for Kalgoorlie R1 where I have only no. 6.

CF, $ and PR are on a setting of 3 with a maximum rated price of $1.55.

Are these the rules?

[Jimmy]

Hi Michael,

That other one at Kalgoorlie was R3 No.6 Foretold

great effort on saturday though using these rules
12 selections 11 placed
out 12 return 18.1 Prof 6.1

interesting to see how it goes

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for bringing that to our attention.
I stuffed up somewhere with the Neual setting .
I must have pushed the button underneath.

The site definetly has some downloading complications in the day time.

3 from 6 for Sun 8/6/08
2.00/1.30
- / 1.90
6.40 / 2.60
Total
w $8.40 Prof +2.40
pl $5.80 Loss 0.20

They where saying on the radio that the bookies had a great day yesterday due to the number of outsiders getting up on the day.
Which was a reversal of Sat where they say they copped a hiding where the majority was won by the top 2 Favs most of the day.
The never ending shifts of sand....

[Bhagwan]

Correction 4 from 7
Pakenham -/ 1.20

Which means the figures for the place broke even on the day.

If one is looking for a little action on both sides of the fence, maybe consider betting 1w x 6plc
This is a method that can work very well with these type of selections because of the average price range the selections seem to fall in & that is 5/1 & less... This is where the majority of results stem from statisticly.

It was the price range the late great Don Scot liked to pay special attention to.
Known to professionals as the killing field.
He often posted selections in various racing mags & would often say , dont bet it, if it is greater than 5/1 in the market.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

Out of interest - and hopefully not confusing the issue - for comparison purposes I ran thru the races using the same approach as last Saturday.
(Couldn't do it earlier as I had an appointment on the golf course.)
The outcome after scratchings was some extra selections on top of those posted by Michael.
Mortlake R4#12
M.Bridge R4#1
MV R1#5
EF R3#1
EF R4#1

There were also a couple for Belmont but no Unitab Ratings for them
They were R4#15 (note #5 was orig selection but scratched)
and R5#4.
cheers ....Mancunian

[michaelg]

Hi, Mancunian.

Those extra selections would most likely be due to scratchings which we don't take into account.

Eagle Farm R4 no.1 (Favashi) does not qualify because it won its last two starts, even though it should be close to a "sure thing".

So far, two selections have been run for a first and a third.

[Mancunian]

Eagle Farm R4 no.1 (Favashi) does not qualify because it won its last two starts, even though it should be close to a "sure thing".

Yes sorry , I forgot about that rule.

[Mancunian]

Hi, Mancunian.

Those extra selections would most likely be due to scratchings which we don't take into account.

Undoubtedly - and I certainly like the idea of getting them done the night before the races if the results are going to be almost the same.

[michaelg]

A good day today. There was one scratching and from the remaining selections, all Unitab 96-plus pointers, two of them won paying $5.40 and all placed paying $3.70.

One selection tomotrrow:
Echuca R1 no.6 - Isa Halo. It has 95 Unitab points but is the second highest rated horse.

[Mancunian]

Gents,
For what its worth, here is a comparison of the 2 methods for races run on Mon 9 Jun - using NSW TAB divs.

CF and $ (selected night before) 3 bets for 2 winners and a 3rd
Out $3 - return for Win $5.60 / Pl out $3 return $3.70.
1 x 6 - Outlay $21 Return $27.80 = 32.3 percent profit.

CF and PR after scratchings (therefore only selected on raceday) using same rules as operated last Saturday. 7 bets for 5 winners a 3rd and 1 unplaced
Out $7 - return for win $13.70 / Pl out $7 return 7.80.
1 x 6 - Outlay $49 Return $60.50 = 23.4 percent profit.

Cheers.....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

One selection tomotrrow:
Echuca R1 no.6 - Isa Halo. It has 95 Unitab points but is the second highest rated horse."Old" system for today selects:
Echuca R2 # 1
Echuca R8 # 10
Scone R4 # 10.

MAncunian

[Merriguy]

Great start, Michael. Congrats!!

[michaelg]

Yes, Merriguy - a great start, but it paid a most disappointing $1.10 for the Place on NSW TAB, yet $1.50 on Unitab.

There have now been 4 selections for 3 winners for a POT of 170% (maybe just a lucky period at the moment) and all 4 have placed for a POT of 20%.

Mancunian, we have been looking at the CF method (with Unitab's 96-plus points) on another thread but yesterday I forgot to check them which your results show would have been a winning day. I'll also list the selections for the method on this thread.

Three today:
Echuca R2 no.1 - Araynam
Echuca R8 no.10 - Tarademus
Scone R4 no.10 - Carefully Chosen

[Merriguy]

Should have kept quiet! Araynam no good.

I got $1.72 on Betfair for the place for Isa Halo; but only $3.95 for the win darn! (can never work out how to use those Smilies on this site!). Was betting 1:5 so that was O.K..

I realise to be balanced in reporting you need to stick to one Tab.

While speaking of B/F I often find that they are not as good for the win. I suppose it is the small pools in Oz racing.

[stugots]

While speaking of B/F I often find that they are not as good for the win. I suppose it is the small pools in Oz racing.

ive often found it hard to obtain value on bf with the well supported nags, seems the markets closely reflect the bookies odds, at the top end anyway, but once betting over abt $7 is where huge overs are often available

[michaelg]

Yes, Araynam was a disappointment.

I've noticed that all three selections today qualified because of the scratchings. There was one day where someone (Jimmy?) noticed that some selections only qualified because of scratchings and that they did not fare too well.

We'll see how the other two selections go.

Stugots, I've also noticed the same situation with Betfair. In fact, there have been several double-figure winners that have paid almost twice the NSW TAB divvy.

[stugots]

just on the nsw tab michaelg, on the face of it would you agree that of the 3 tabs, it's div's are usually the lowest?

havent done any research & have never bet with nsw, just an observation after watching hour after hour, day after day, year after year of sky

(note to self - must get a life!)

[michaelg]

Stugots, betting is a life. Some well-known person (can't remember who) said that "when you bet you know that you are alive".

I think Unitab might be the worst with Win and Place divvies, but NSW seems not to be the best with the exotics. Maybe someone might disagree?

[stugots]

"when you bet you know that you are alive".

amen to that:)

[Bhagwan]

I like the saying I saw from somewhere, which says.....

A man should have at least one bet a day....

Otherwise, he could be walking around lucky & never know it.


Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

I like the saying I saw from somewhere, which says.....

A man should have at least one bet a day....

Otherwise, he could be walking around lucky & never know it.



Cheers.

[Crackone]

You must of really liked it :)

[Bhagwan]

Yes, I must of really liked it.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

What about
"I broke even today - thank God, I could use the money."

[michaelg]

As previously stated, today's sole selection won paying $5.40 and $1.10.

Tomorrow's selections:
Gawler R2 no.6
Avondale R3 no.9
Avondale R5 no.1
Avondale R7 no.9-
Belmont R1 no.6
Belmont R2 no.2
Bendigo R1 no.7
Canterbury R1 no.1
Canterbury R2 no.8
Dombeen R1 no.2
Dombeen R2 no.3

The CF and Unitab system failed today. As also previously stated, they were selections only because of the scratchings. So I'll ignore scratchings for tomorrow's racing and see how they go. They are:

Belmont R1 no.6
Belmont R3 no.9
Bendigo R1 no.7
Canterbury R1 no.1
Canterbury R2 no.8
Dombeen R7 no.3
Gawler R1 no.10
Gawler R2 no.6

[enjay]

Hi to all, I have just picked up this thread and would appreciate if I could be pointed in the right direction for the selection criteria please. I do use the Neurals and have had mixed results in the past and would like a crack at this idea whatever it may be.....
Thanks in advance.

Enjay.

[Bhagwan]

Its all there under...
Don Scotts Odds-On thread.

[TWOBETS]

"I think Unitab might be the worst with Win and Place divvies, but NSW seems not to be the best with the exotics. Maybe someone might disagree?"-michaelg


michealg, my observations.

As you may recall I bet to place on short priced favorites and the past couple of years averaged show NSW at $1.182, Unitab at $1.195 and Betfair at $1.208...Before Commission removed!!!!! What is worse is that Betfair profits are far smaller due to the many occasions where you can't place a bet : where the price offered is silly or there's no money behind the price offered or the race jumps while I'm still trying to get on etc.

It's a strange way I do stuff but I don't mind betting on Unitab when it's showing $1.00 for the place because I know there's always a chance that the final divvy might be $1.50 or whatever, but I can't accept those $1.10 type offerings on Betfew, I mean Betfair.

[michaelg]

Twobets, your figures show that there isn't too much difference with Place divvies between Unitab and NSW TAB. I've noticed that the NSW TAB when showing a divvy of $1.04 in early betting that it ultimately pays an acceptable price. Maybe because people bet around it causing it to ease. As you say this is also not unusual with Unitab.

However, I'm surprised with Betfair. I've found generally that the lower the TAB price then the better with Betfair. And if you are betting only short-priced horses then this is where there is the highest liquidity, which should mean that there is money behind the price offered. Of course this may not apply to some of the more obscure mid-week races.

[Merriguy]

B/F paying three places on the first at Bendigo!!!



But altogether too short!

[Bhagwan]

With the 96pt rule , it might an idea to include the 95ptr if there is no 96ptr in the race.
There have been several getting up lately under these situations.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Good idea, Bhagwan. Will do so.

CF and $ Method.

There were 4 winners (even though its a Place method I will record Win results if/until they fail) from 10 selections paying $9.90, and 9 placegetters (the loser would have won on Betfair as they paid on the first three horses) for a return of $14.44.

Tomorrow's selections:
Gold Coast R3 no.8
New Plymouth R2 no.1
New Plymouth R7 no.3
New Plymouth R8 no.7
Northam R2 no.3
Sale R1 no.4
Sale R2 no.7
Sale R3 no.15

CF and Unitab Method.

Even though its early days, ignoring scratchings might be the way to go. There were 3 winners (again its a Place Method) from 5 selections for a return of $4.70, and all 5 placed for a return of $6.04.

Tomorrow's selections:
Sale R3 no.15
Sale R7 no.9
Gold Coast R1 no.1
Gold Coast R4 no.3
Hawkesbury R1 no.6
Hawkesbury R3 no.5

[Try Try Again]

Hi Guys,

Interesting thread which got me thinking about setting the CF and PR to 3 and everything else to zero. (Thanks Michaelg for getting my brain out of idle!)
The rules I have used since 30th May are :-

Only consider Australian race meetings
Top point scorer(s) is the selection
Delete all horses that have had only one run or are 1st or 2nd up from a spell
Delete all horses with Unitab Rating <= 90
Delete all horses not placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both its past 2 starts
Delete all horses that have won their past 2 start
Results of these rules are :-

92 bets, 23 winners (25.0% S/R), 53 places (57.6% S/R)

Using the "worst case" scenario I have used the dividends of the Home TAB in these calculations. Obviously we would expect to get a better result with the numerous betting options open to us.

Win Bank +$16.20 Win POT % = 17.6%
Place Bank -$2.70 Place LOT % = -2.9%

I have also kept the Best of 3 Totes results

Win Bank +$34.85 Win POT % = +37.9%
Place Bank +$7.00 Place POT % = +7.6%

Bets for today would be

Sale R4#5 Destinationunknown
Hawkesbury R7#1 Ain't It Magic
Hawkesbury R9#5 Delenatii
Gold Coast R2#3 Girls Jeuney
Northam R5#5 Telluride
Northam R5#6 Snooperclyde
Northam R8#7 Ma Chienne

Try Try Again

[michaelg]

Hi, Try Try Again.

Those are very promising results, and despite the 6 filters there is quite a bit of action because there were 92 bets in less than two weeks.

I presume the neural settings are CF and PR at 3, the others at 0.

The best of the 3 totes makes a huge difference to the bottom line. A very good example is one of today's selections - New Zealand R2 no.1. It won, paying $2.00 and $1.04 here in NSW, yet on Unitab it was $3.20 and $1.60. However, I don't think best of the TABs is available on Place betting for all meetings?

I'll be looking with interest at today's selections. Interestingly, none of them tallies with our selections.

[darkydog2002]

Try Try Again.

Thanks for that .Looks quite interesting.

Cheers.
darky.

[michaelg]

CF & $ Method.

There were 6 placegetters from 7 selections for a profit of $4.40.

There have now been 19 placegetters from 21 selections for a POT of 46%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R4 no.2
Grafton R3 no.12
Matamata R2 no.5
Matamata R3 no.1
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R8 no.11
Rocky R1 no.1
Rocky R5 no.1


CF & Unitab Method.

There were 5 selections today for 4 placegetters for a profit of $1.10.

There have now been 9 placegetters from 10 selections for a POT of 19.4%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Geelong R1 no.3
Geelong R5 no.12
Mt Gambier R2 no.10
Mt Gambier R3 no.3
Mt Gambier R4 no.2
Queanbeyan R6 no.2
Rocky R1 no.1

[peakester]

Michael G, sorry to request this, but can you give the exact rules for your selections today ie the two systems CF & $, CF & Unitab. Unfortunately they get a little muddied as they get developed over the threads. Are CF, CP & $ all 3 or just CF & PR? Is the max price $1.50 or $1.55? Are we betting 1x4 or 1x6?

Also Michael, how is the original Don Scott system of (1) Rated $1.50 or less & (2) Last Start 1 or 2, going?

Thanks for your clarification. As always your input on this forum is most appreciated.

Tony

[michaelg]

Hi, Peakster.

Because there was so little action with the Don Scott method and could be quite time consuming to determine the selections I no longer look at it.

You're right about the rules for the other two methods. They have been slightly amended throughout the thread as forumites suggest/improve the basic rules. The current rules are:

CF and $ Method.
1 ) CF, $ and PR at a setting of 3, all the other categories at 0.
2 ) Ignore scratchings
3 ) neural price must be $1.55 or less.


CF and Unitab Method.
1 ) CF and PR at 3, all the other categories at 0.
2 ) Ignore scratchings.
3 ) Neural price must be $1.55 or less.
4 ) Must have 96-plus points on Unitab. A 95 pointer will qualify if it is the first, second or third highest ranked Unitab selection.

Good luck.

[Mancunian]

CF and Unitab Method.
1 ) CF and PR at 3, all the other categories at 0.
2 ) Ignore scratchings.
3 ) Neural price must be $1.55 or less.
4 ) Must have 96-plus points on Unitab. A 95 pointer will qualify if it is the first, second or third highest ranked Unitab selection.
.But eliminate if the selection has won its last 2 starts ???

[michaelg]

Yes, for both methods.

Thanks for the memory jog.

[michaelg]

CF and $ method

Not a good day yesterday - from the 6 selections there were only 2 placegetters for a loss of $3.00.

There have now been 21 successes from 27 selections for a POT of 24.74%

Today's selections
Belmont R1 no.1
Ellerslie R1 no.1
Gold Coast R4 no.13
Kembla R3 no.5
Kilmore R2 no.13
Randwick R7 no.1
Toowoomba R2 no.2


CF and Unitab Method

From yesterday's 4 selections there were 2 placegetters for a loss of $1.20.

There have now been 11 successes from 14 selections for a POT of 5.28%.

Today's selections:
Awapuni R3 no.7
Awapuni R6 no.1
Belmont R1 no.1
Belmont R2 no.5
Ellerslie R1 no.1
Ellerslie R2 no.5
Cheltenham R2 no.2
Gold Coast R4 no.13
Kembla R1 no.4
Kembla R2 no.12
Kembla R3 no.5
Kembla R9 no.4
Kilmore R2 no.13
Kilmore R5 no.6
Randwick R7 no.1
Toowoomba R2 no.2

[michaelg]

From today I'll only retain the CF and $ method as it is performing quite well with each-way betting - touch wood.

From yesterday's 6 selections there were 3 winners for a profit of $5.90 but a loss of $0.40 for Place betting. I excluded Belmont R1 no.1 from the method even though it won paying $2.10 because due to a scratching there was no Place betting.

There have now been 33 selections for 15 winners for a POT of 26.6%, and 25 placegetters for a POT of 19%.

Today's elections:
Ballarat R1 no.1 - Jeuluna
Ballarat R2 no.6 - Testa Rocketa
Hobart R3 no.11 - Seal Lago
Port Mac R2 no.2 - Zophiana
Warrnambool R3 no.1 - Canhedance

[michaelg]

Not the best of days yesterday - from the 4 selections there were 2 winners for a profit of $0.80, and two placegetters for a loss of $1.20.

There have now been 37 selections for 17 winners for a POT of 25.9%, and 27 placegetters for a POT of 16.4%.

Today's selections:
Gunnedah R4 no.2 - Swindle
Gunnedah R6 no.6 - Top Crown
Narrandera R3 no.1 - Better Not Cry

[stevecanb]

Michael,

If I'm following the method correctly I've also got Geelong2 #10, Geelong4 #8, Narrandera2 #1 and Narrandera3 #1 (that is CF, $ and PR set on 3)

Cheers, Steve

[michaelg]

Hi, Stevecanb, thanks.

I forgot to look at Geelong. I checked your two selections and they are qualifiers.

However, I excluded Narrandera R2 no.1 because there is a scratching which means that there is no Place betting.

There are five selections today.

[michaelg]

A good day today. There were 2 winners from the 5 selections for a profit of $0.70, and 4 placegetters for a profit of $2.00.

There have now been 19 winners from 42 selections for a POT of 24.5% and 31 placegetters for a POT of 19.2%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Moe R4 no.7 - Fraar's Win
Penola R2 no.10 - Danish Scoop
Penola R3 no.3 - Kingston aaa
Penola R8 no.11 - Ardenstar.

[michaelg]

A bad day today. One winner from 4 selections for a loss of $1.50, and two placegetters for a loss of $1.60.

There have now been 46 selections for 20 winners for a POT of 19.13%, and 33 placegetters for a POT of 14.3%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Dombee R1 no.1
Ruakaka R1 no.1
Ruakaka R4 no.1
Ruakaka R5 no.2

[Mancunian]

Tomorrow's selections:
Dombee R1 no.1
michael

Do you think this should have been Doomben R1 No. 7 ?

Manc

[michaelg]

Mancunian, you're right. Sorry about that.

I wrote no.7 on my manual record when identifying the selections but when I came to transpose it to this forum I made an error. Hope no one backed it, I've got to be more careful.

I won't record it in the results.

[michaelg]

Tomorrow's selections (double-checked) are:

Mackay R5 no.1 - Sequalo Morn
Pt Augusta R1 no.4 - Miss Monteito
Seymour R2 no.13 - Skipped Bail
Wanganui R3 no.5 - Western Line
Wanganui R4 no.3 - Categlory
Wanganui R6 no.1 - Towbarzar
Wyong R1 no.5 - Gaffe
Wyong R2 no.8 - She's Best
Wyong R5 no.9 - Please Dash

[Mancunian]

That's OK - I have found myself a couple of times automatically putting down No.1 because its on the top line and subconciously you are expecting 1.
I only came across it because I'm still doing a bit of a check on the other method (CF/Unitab,which is still going reasonably well) and it looked odd that it picked a different horse in the same race.

Incidentally, No.7 won.

The other system had 9 bets for 5 winners, 1 3rd, and 3 unplaced.
outlay $9 - win return $13.70 / place return $10.80.

Cheers ....Manc

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michael,
Thanks for all the work in maintaining the exercise.
It's proving to be very interesting by the figures so far.
Lets see if one can make the wheels fall off.

I feel it should be seen as a simple typo that can happen to anyone and should record that one as a success because the idea is to see if the system has legs, not to see how well one can transpose without typos.
Same as if the typo had won at 35/1, we would not have recorded that as a success.

One has to remember that this is not a tipping service here , but a live system check.
One is not suggesting that anyone should bet on this idea as yet due to the smallish but promising sample.

We should have a clearer idea of its potential by bet No.150

The plan is user friendly & can be easily verified by any one, therefore leave it in as a success & a small one at that because it was odds-on in price,
not 35/1 as the typo was.

I feel it is up to the individual to double check any figures for themeselves if they decide to place any real money on any idea.

Keep up the good work Michael.
Cheers.

[michaelg]

You're right, Bhagwan. I took the outlook that the results would be decided on the selections that I listed here, and not the selections as per the rules of the system itself.

So including Dombeen R1 no.7 there have now been 50 selections for 22 winners for a POT of 17.4%, and 36 placegetters for a POT of 14.56%%.

[Mancunian]

I totally agree with Bhagwan,
keep up the good work Michael,
it is much appreciated.
Cheers....Mancunian

[michaelg]

Not the best of days today - from the 8 selections there were 3 winners for a loss of $0.50, and 5 placegetters for a profit of $0.30.

There have now been 58 selections for 23 winners for a POT of 14.13%, and 41 placegetters for a POT of 13.06%.

Tomorrow's selections:
Canberra R1 no.2 - Oahu Girl
Canberra R4 no.8 - Dazzling Daphne
Ipswich R2 no.14 - Phebetay
Te Awamutu R4 no.1 - Hez Majestic.

[odericko]

have been following this with interset michaeal and i have slightly changed
what you do ..i keep the cf ect.ect the same but i go by the odds
the 1st 1 must be less than 2
2nd 1 must be 7s or better
last start placed
but last 2 start beaten lnghts <6
so for monday i had
cr4no2
tues
qr2no4
weds
nobets
thurs
nr1no5

[odericko]

and tomorrows tentatvive picks are
br2no14\
br4 11
nr3 6
nr4 3
cr1 2 maybe
cr4 8

[michaelg]

Not the best of days today - from the 3 selections there was one winner of $1.70, and 2 placegetters paying $2.50.

There have now been 61 selections for 24 winners for a POT of 11.31%, and 43 placegetters for a POT of 11.6%. As a matter of interest, Cessnock R3 no.6 was priced at $1.60, if it had been $1.55 it would have been a selection - it won paying $8.50 and $2.10.

Tomorrow's selections:
Belmont R3 no.6
Belmont R8 no.11
Benalla R1 no.8
Benalla R8 no.10
Gold Coast R1 no.1
Gold Coast R6 no.4
Rosehill R2 no.1

[michaelg]

Another bad day yesterday - from the 6 selections there were 2 winners for a loss of $2.50, and 3 placegetters for a loss of $1.70.

here have now been 67 selections for 26 winners for a POT of 6.56% and 47 placegetters for a POT of 8.02%.

Today's selections:
Casterton R2 no.6 - Portland Profit
Casterton R3 no.1 - Pasco
Cranbourne R1 no.3 - New Abode
Sun Coast R1 no.11 - Pe Te Cruiser
tamworth R1 no.2 - Flopitdot
Taree R5 no.2 - Pash 'n' Dash.

[michaelg]

Another bad day yesterday. As both Win and Place are still in profit I'll give it a little longer.

Today's selections:
Albury R5 no.1 - Murray Downs
Bathurst R4 no.2 - Chastain
Mildura R1 no.4 - Samadji
Albury R2 no.3 - I'm leaving.