Price Lay Betting Plan

[Bhagwan]

This plan is showing very good results so far & may need some furthur research.

It mainly hits upon selections paying $5.50 & less which I beleive is a strong point to target if lay betting.

I am surprised as to why so many of these do not win & when they do win, their prices are usually very low, which is what the Lay bettor wants.

Target the pre-post fav as shown in Racingandsports or newspaper pre-post market..

RULES
.Must be pre-post $2.60 exactly.
That's it.

.Lay Bet percentage to bank not reducing.

Bet 3% of bank if $3.20 & less

Bet 2% of bank if $3.30 - $5.50

No bet if $5.60+

Results for example.
Sat 5th July.
5 from 6
+7.9 pts = 7.9% increase on bank.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Sun 6th july
5 from 6
+9.2 Pts

Total YTD
10 from 12
17.1 % increase on bank.

[Bhagwan]

Resuts
Tue 8th July
1 from 1
+3pts

There were no qualifiers for Mon 7th

YTD
11 from 13
20.1% increase on bank.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Wed 9thy July
1 from 3
-8.2 Pts

YTD
12 from 16
+11.9% increase on bank

[Bhagwan]

Thur 10th
1 from 1
+3Pts

YTD
13 from 17
14.9% increase on bank.

[odericko]

bhagwan...could you maybe also use your fave bookmakers site
and use the 2.60 open ......i think this is a goodun

[Merriguy]

I'm struggling with the logic of this, B. Surely the difference between 2.60 and 2.70, or 2.50, is purely a matter of chance . The P.P. price isomeone's estimate only.....and if the price is based on some mathematical formula or the like then it seems to be just luck that it is one cent this way or that?

[RockStar]

I am a smallish punter trying to better himelf who discovered this forum a while ago, and have been thrilled at the amount of excellent information I find here and in the archives from wise sages such as yourself Bhagwan.

I always promised as soon as I had something to add which might lead to constructive debate, I would.

I haven't got extensive databases or done anything above anecdotal research at the meetings I have a crack at.

But your thoughts about dodgy $2.60 favourites tally with my thoughts on what I call "dead zone" favourites.

Favourites which are newspaper-rated around $2.30-$2.80 prepost seem to fall over quite regularly, especially at the provincials midweek.

Why? Probably plenty of reasons well beyond my scope of knowledge. But perhaps one reason is that in every race - no matter how hard to assess - the general public has to send something around favourite. Why not the one the pro market assessor sees on top? It is usually the first one the two-dollar punter is drawn to.

I am staggered at how often that one fact drags a fair bit of money on to the horse and it starts shorter than its newspaper price, and the bigger the risk the ned is, the more money seems to go on it!
I am having a wonderful time laying many of these horses (with some filters obviously) and picking up my little bit each time.

Thanks again Bhagwan. Always enjoy your ideas. There is always a gem among them.

Good luck and good punting to all.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for the kind words RockStar.

I do not know why they fall over so often, maybe we have to see a day where they all get up to win, but if one wishes to run their data base of horses in this pre-post price range, one will see a substantial loss is incurred.

Results
Fri 11th
1from 1
+3pts.

YTD
14 from 18
+17.9% increase on bank.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Just out of interest, I ran the suggested idea of backing the horse with the worst
Crs + Dist form, using the Neural setting at 5 all the rest 0, starting from the bottom & working up.
The first selection we came to that was also in the RadioTAB 3 selections became the bet. (regardless if a draw on pts.)

Result Fri 11th July.
10 from 35 = 29% SR
Ret 47.40
O/L 35.00
Prof 12.40 = 35% POT

Av Div $4.74

UniTAB prices
$5.70 5.80 7.30 4.30 4.40 3.40 3.00 4.40 5.90 3.30

Much better prices could have been had using Betfair.

The idea now shared, will not effect the price one little bit, because it flys in the face of logic, the average punter's brain will naturally say that there is no way something like this can possible work long term because a horse with better Crs & Dist form, will beat a horse with lower known form, under this criteria.
With this firmly in mind, the punter will now do the logical step & back the one with the better Crs & Dist form which will usually result in lower prices being had, just to start with.

The longterm SR may be similar but it is the lower Average Price of the better rated Crs + Dist horse, which will be the killer.

Like I said in the previouse post, start laying these selections with poor
Crs + Dist ratings & see how much money one will loose.
So may as well back them to win, especially if showing juicy prices.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Correction.
That previouse post, was meant to go on Partypooper's thread.

[Bhagwan]

There were no selections for Sat due to no pre-post market in Racingandsports.

Results 13th July
6 from 7
+9.9 Pts

YTD
20 from 25
27.8% increase on bank.

[Bhagwan]

Results Mon 14th July.
0 from 3
-13.5 pts


Done got bit real good.

This all part of the joy of Lay betting.
We need approx 4.5 clear successes to recoup this amount.

YTD 20 from 28
14.3% increase on bank.

[RockStar]

Worry not Bhagwan...the sun will shine brighter tomorrow.

I at least managed to dodge Marshal Blucher because I made a judgment call - I wasn't keen to lay a horse I think is actually quite good and he's big, so weight doesn't bother him.

Indi and Mermaid Annie hurt a bit. Still up overall though. Life's good!

[Bhagwan]

No qualifiers for Tues

Results
Wed 16 July
1 fro 2
- 3.1 Pts

Butt got bit again.
Funny ahh.

YTD
21 from 30
11.2% increase on bank.

To get this party rocking a bit harder, we are now going to target runners
in the $2.60-2.80 range.