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partypooper
10th July 2008, 12:14 PM
Go - on, the truth????? if you stumbled on that magic system (hey some may well have already done it) would you tell "ANYONE"? or just quietly milk it till you don't need to anymore?

Racer
10th July 2008, 02:35 PM
Go - on, the truth????? if you stumbled on that magic system (hey some may well have already done it) would you tell "ANYONE"? or just quietly milk it till you don't need to anymore?
G'day Party., good to see you are back in one piece - hope your hols. were
enjoyable.

No, as unfortunate as that is it's a fact of life - however having had 60 years
of racing from one side or another and knowing how many extrinsics are involved I would be nothing short of astounded to find such an animal
exists, at least long enough to ( "milk it till you don't need to anymore").

crash
10th July 2008, 03:05 PM
"Milk it until you don't need it anymore" ?

How long is a piece of string?

Crackone
10th July 2008, 05:45 PM
Go - on, the truth????? if you stumbled on that magic system (hey some may well have already done it) would you tell "ANYONE"? or just quietly milk it till you don't need to anymore?Why have you got one??? Wouldn't devolge the system but may pass on some tips.

Bhagwan
10th July 2008, 05:59 PM
I feel if one shared a system that worked over time , a punter would instinctivly change the rules to to try & improve on it.

The other thing is discipline, not many Punters posses this trait.

This will be seen when the system has a run of outs, which is normal for most plans of attack, this usually rattles most punters , so they usually stop using it.

Put the 2 together & I dont feel the system would ever be over bet, because over time it wont look anything like the original.

Here is an example.
.Target the 3 pre-post Favs in any newspaper or racingandsports & highlight the one that has the best chance of loosing the race.
These 3 generally win 45-55% of all races

. 1300m & more.

.12 runners & less.

.Now that you have worked out who the worst horse is, bet it to win.

I doubt if this idea will ever be over bet.

But to prove to oneself if it can work, start Lay betting each selection & see just how much money one will loose.

The reasoning is , if it is winning logic that is used to select a winner & they dont show a profit, the reasoning is, if one reverses the thought process , one should be in profit.

Cheers.

crash
10th July 2008, 06:14 PM
Bagman,

I like the drift, but how do you work out the horse 'that has the best chance of loosing the race' [?].

The 3rd PP fav. ?

Mr Quaddie
10th July 2008, 11:53 PM
I think the horse with the worst Distance @ Track record would be the worst, and if that can't be worked out, then the worst at distance.

partypooper
11th July 2008, 12:14 AM
an interesting "twist" to this thread, but to answer a specific question........ I have many ideas running at the same time, my no 1 is totally place betting, which I have been doing for 4 years (apart from several 3 months stints abroad) this is currently showing just over 4% POT, but there is no way that I would claim the "holy grail" I am VERY much aware that it could tilt the other way at any moment.

I have also 2 other "plans" showing just over (a tiny amount) break even, even so, I have had 4 round the world trips out of em' FREE inc. hotels & cars.

And the answer is,... NO I can't say how, but I know there are several contributors to this forum who are aware that I am telling you the truth!

Chrome is one of them.

I can't broadcast it, as the loophole may disappear on me.

By the way all my investments are placed at best tote OR top fluc.

So I guess the answer for me is YES I would divulge a certain amount, but I would keep the real secret,...... secret!

Racer, thanks for the welcome back, I had a good rest but gotta admit it's great to be back in OZ, had a blooody horror experience in Spain when I couldn't get any money from the ATMs, but went to a couple race meets in the Philippines which made up for ALL the problems, especially one which was for racing "BUFFALO" I kid you NOT! fantastic stuff!

Racer
11th July 2008, 12:55 PM
especially one which was for racing "BUFFALO" I kid you NOT! fantastic stuff!
Buffalo Phil. then.

I meant to ask you Party re. your final post b'4 you took off to fields afar, you referred to something like your trips were paid for from returns
" Either directly from betting, or indirectly".

It's the "indirectly" that got me wondering if that might be the 'real' earner because place betting won't buy you a suitcase, unless of course the bets are a couple of grand a time and 98% win.

partypooper
11th July 2008, 01:24 PM
Racer, your inclinations are "close" I would love to spill the beans (just to look like a smart aaaa) but my brain tells me different!

But just to get the grey stuff working consider this, I have a mortgage with a certain company @9%, who write and offer me pre approved a credit card with $20,000 limit, no charge for the first year and 2.99% interest on balance transfers for 9 months.

So I transfer $20,000 and pay it back into my mortgage, the result: the $20,000 costs me $450 interest, and I *save* $1350 interest on my Mortgage. and it's ALL on their money! Now if the offer continues I will repeat as many times as I can, if not I will just cancel the card after 9 months.

What the helll has that got to do with "investing" on horses? you say? well what I'm getting at is; consider the above as a "formula" that's the sort of mental agility you need to suceed.

One final cryptic clue I haven't used one single cent of my money to bet on horses with in 4 years!!!!

Shaun
11th July 2008, 01:57 PM
The idea of telling everyone your secret would not be good, but a select few is not such a bad idea.

Now i know the idea of risk free betting has been posted on here before and a lot of people claim it is not possible and a few prove it is, i won't go in to details.

But the concept was explained to me in detail by a former forum user and like most ideas it became harder and harder to use, but from this came my current ideas and it all has to do with maths.


This started 4 years ago and i have been refining my ideas every since, as one possibility comes along another one dissolves, but in all this time i have kept that one person up to date with whats going on because with sharing ideas one of us may come up with the answer.

Remember this. no single person that every invented anything was not improved upon by another.

ubetido
11th July 2008, 02:36 PM
Hi all

I reckon that telling a few that you know are professional enough to take it for what it is is not so bad in the scheme of things it may actually evolve your own idea to greater heights perhaps. As they say more heads are better than one.

Perhaps, is the fact that one does not want to look like an idiot which is generally a feeling one gets if they tell all that this is great it works then falls in a hole.

I have come to the conclusion that its not about picking winners on a certain day but having an edge, many cant see this so if you say pick 3 selections and they all lose you would be seen as a loser whereby you know that in the longer term this is just a process.

Cheers
U

partypooper
11th July 2008, 03:15 PM
Shaun and Ubetido, I agree totally. just one thought though, I would consider 3 losers on one day as ONE loser, and say 2 losers + a 3-1 winner as ONE 3-1 ON winner!!

crash
12th July 2008, 12:07 AM
Write a winning formula outside of Ranwich [or anywhere] on the footpath and believe me no one will take any notice.

partypooper
12th July 2008, 12:48 AM
hahahahaha! yeah you're probably right there Crash, hahah!

Bhagwan
12th July 2008, 07:47 AM
Just out of interest, I ran the suggested idea of backing the horse with the worst
Crs + Dist form, using the Neural setting at 5 all the rest 0, starting from the bottom & working up.
The first selection we came to that was also in the RadioTAB 3 selections became the bet. (regardless if a draw on pts.)

Result Fri 11th July.
10 from 35 = 29% SR
Ret 47.40
O/L 35.00
Prof 12.40 = 35% POT

Av Div $4.74

UniTAB prices
$5.70 5.80 7.30 4.30 4.40 3.40 3.00 4.40 5.90 3.30

Much better prices could have been had using Betfair.

The idea now shared, will not effect the price one little bit, because it flys in the face of logic, the average punter's brain will naturally say that there is no way something like this can possible work long term because a horse with better Crs & Dist form, will beat a horse with lower known form, under this criteria.
With this firmly in mind, the punter will now do the logical step & back the one with the better Crs & Dist form which will usually result in lower prices being had, just to start with.

The longterm SR may be similar but it is the lower Average Price of the better rated Crs + Dist horse, which will be the killer.

Like I said in the previouse post, start laying these selections with poor
Crs + Dist ratings & see how much money one will loose.
So may as well back them to win, especially if showing juicy prices.

Cheers.

crash
12th July 2008, 09:55 AM
Looking at the winning prices Bagman the runners must have had something going for them. Their mostly 1st, 2nd. or 3rd favorites aren't they?

partypooper
12th July 2008, 10:17 AM
Yes mechanically, like that the sign on the Pokie that says "THIS MACHINE GUARANTEES TO PAY OUT 85c IN THE $" what it is REALLY saying is that "this machine guarantees to take 15c from every $ that goes into it , rain or shine"
Same with the "other" machine the name of the game is to slowly cream off 15c in the $ like clockwork........ one person or more winning on one or even 100 particular races is irrellavant really isn't it?

Bhagwan
13th July 2008, 06:33 AM
Results for this idea, 9 meetings targeted .

Sat 13th July
20 from 70 = SR 29%
Ret 104
O/L 70
Prof + 34

Av price $5.20

Divs
$16.40 6.20 3.80 6.30 5.20 5.90 3.10 8.50 6.30 3.60 2.70 1.60 4.30 5.10 6.10 3.20 2.40 4.00 2.60 3.70

Interesting results so far
30 from 104 races = 29% SR
+$46.40 prof = 44% POT

Av price $5.03

Now according to the experts, this cant be done longterrm because the percentage is too high to warrant this Average price.
Maybe they are logically correct based on known form, but keep in mind we are looking at the reverse of known form, every form person will tell you a good form person will out do a systems person.

For this idea to fall over it would require the better form horses, which will have the shorter prices also, to suddenly over perform to their historical known ability in relation to its price. Which on past history, does not happen longterm.

I still feel no one will use it, even though it shows a promising result & its free.
So there is no fear of the price dropping, because its reverse logic.
One thing to keep in mind, is when a price drops, it also pushes the other horses price out & these selections will win only a percentage of all races, not all of them, a Bookie would not want to be caught out too much on known form horses at too higher price so as to balance his book.

To come back to the original question, would you sell a system fearing the horses price will drop?
The answer is .... Hell Yeah!

Crackone
13th July 2008, 10:54 AM
Hi Bhagwan the hardest thing is to get into the Neurals, tried to have a look yesterday to see how they went, gave up after one race.

PS what would be the betting strategie??

jfc
13th July 2008, 12:33 PM
Hi Bhagwan the hardest thing is to get into the Neurals, tried to have a look yesterday to see how they went, gave up after one race.

PS what would be the betting strategie??

Obviously it would be much easier just to look at the UNiTAB race page, which has all the information.

Back the worst TD form of the tips.

http://www.tabonline.com.au/2008/07/13/VR08.html

Presumably this would give similar picks + results as the Neurals.

Mancunian
13th July 2008, 12:44 PM
Bhagwan - has anyone ever told you you're a genius !

I thought I'd have a look at this out of curiosity and todays results so far,
unpl/unpl/Won 5.00(2.00pl)/3rd(ntd)/unpl/2nd(2.70pl)Won23.90(5.20pl).
Unfortunately I'm only doing it on paper today (as usual).

PS - best keep it a secret and tell nobody.

cheers ....Mancunian.

partypooper
13th July 2008, 12:54 PM
Bhagwan, good stuff as usual, but just one thing the "original" question was would you TELL (not SELL) ...............

crash
13th July 2008, 01:37 PM
Party,

Anything that was properly tested over time that was a winning system would not be put up here for free. Lots of short test systems that are showing a profit will be for sure.

You original question ['a winning system' for free, implies tried and true], has not really been answered.

partypooper
13th July 2008, 04:36 PM
Yeah I know Crash but I just thought the forum looked a bit light on topics hee hee!

Bhagwan
14th July 2008, 01:05 AM
Hi Party, I must have misread the question.
To answer the original question... would you tell anyone if you had a proven plan over a period of time?.... HELL YEAH !

Hi Crackbone,
With the Neural site , if you have enough RAM in your PC , one can make it operate quickly, I use 320GB of RAM & it works a treat, even in the middle of the day when its bizzy.
Its a very intricate site & sometimes needs raw power to drive it when its bizzy.

Hi Mancunian,
I would recommend betting the selections at 0.5% of bank , win only betting, at level stakes.
I feel this 0.5 percentage is very important.

This is done so as to handle most runs of outs which is normal for any plan of attack.

Maybe consider betting to a max of 4 venues a day.

Try & be prepared for the inevitable run of outs, they should recover themselves over a series of future bets.


Cheers.

crash
16th July 2008, 05:36 PM
So back to the original question.

Anyone want to put up a tried and true winning system here in the forum [if they have one]?

Crackone
16th July 2008, 06:09 PM
So back to the original question.

Anyone want to put up a tried and true winning system here in the forum [if they have one]?I think they would be few and far between as only 3% of punters win!!

But you can run this one for me ( I have the last four months)
Unitab 100 pts
Placed or won 2 or 3 times in last three starts (as shown on unitab site eg 1x3, 021, 23x)
Weight 58.5 to 59.5 (allotted weight)

PS metro only

Cheers

Stix
17th July 2008, 09:52 AM
So back to the original question.

Anyone want to put up a tried and true winning system here in the forum [if they have one]?Vic, SA, WA, NSW & QLD Metro only

Runners 10 (after Scratchings)
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10 (Unitab)

Since 1/1/00
Selections 120
Wins 48 (S/R 40.00%) Places 82 (68.33%)
POT 19.1% LOT 0.4%

Since 1/1/05
Selections 58
Wins 27 (S/R 46.5%) Places 41 (70.7%)
POT 37.8% POT 0.8%

Since 1/1/08
Selections 10
Wins 4 (S/R 40.0%) Places 8 (80.0%)
POT 20.0% POT 19.0%

darkydog2002
17th July 2008, 11:54 AM
Here is another long term winner.

Won last 4 starts.

( No other rules)_

Cheers.
darky.

Stix
17th July 2008, 04:52 PM
Here is another long term winner.

Won last 4 starts.

( No other rules)_

Cheers.
darky.Overall it doesn't work out on Metro tracks as a winning (as in profitable http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/tongue.gif) system Darky.... but it is slightly infront in WA, SA and VIC.

partypooper
17th July 2008, 05:06 PM
Stix, on the same theme, I have been trying to find out for ages the overall figures for the folowing: take all duel winners MISS it's next race then place one unit to win on it's next two runs (regardless of it's 3rd run position) AND also a one unit running double on it's 4th and 5th runs. Do you have the means of solving this one? it would be appreciated.

crash
17th July 2008, 06:31 PM
So, not a genuine guaranteed winning system anywhere here. Is there? Why would you tell?

partypooper
17th July 2008, 07:35 PM
Crash you're wrong heres one!

(1) Apply for a bookmakers licence.

(2) Attend the local course, and set up a book for each race to say 120%, balance that by the usual lay offs etc etc. If there's a race/horse that you don't wanna be involved with just offer stupid prices and lay any mug money off at the better price.

(3) Result = Guaranteed profits!!

ONECAP
17th July 2008, 07:49 PM
Bhagwan, the correct word is lose, not loose, pleasehttp://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/confused.gif

odericko
18th July 2008, 10:45 AM
im sure that anybody who reads my wonderful posts thinks im a complete ???
but im going to give you my top drawer lay method anyway
1/last 2 starts.= 1st or 2nd or 3rd
2/those last 2 runs in no more than same class

darkydog2002
18th July 2008, 02:24 PM
Hi Stix.

Depends on what prices one can get.

There,s a couple in tomorrow too.

Cheers.
darky

Crackone
18th July 2008, 05:25 PM
Just out of interest, I ran the suggested idea of backing the horse with the worst
Crs + Dist form, using the Neural setting at 5 all the rest 0, starting from the bottom & working up.
The first selection we came to that was also in the RadioTAB 3 selections became the bet. (regardless if a draw on pts.)
12/7/08 to 19/7/08
287 races
win return $243.30 (unitab) 49 winners
Place return $245.30 124 placed

First three races only:)
104 races
Win return $124.10
Place $93.40

Chrome Prince
18th July 2008, 07:25 PM
So, not a genuine guaranteed winning system anywhere here. Is there? Why would you tell?

There is no such thing as a guaranteed winning system.
Vendor may provide a guarantee, but nobody can guarantee the future.
Even bookies cannot guarantee a profit, some have gone bust, especially the one's who gamble.
If a bookie offers 2/1 about a 20/1 shot and he takes a huge bet just at the deathknock that he can't lay off, the horse could still win - the horse doesn't know his odds.

The winning system I use at the moment, is get the best odds about the best horses.
It's not guaranteed, but it provides a nice return.

But one needs discipline and bank management to pull it off.

Crash, I know you have an aversion to odds on favourites, but if you get a very good price about them, then you make money.
However often they win or lose.

Odds on favourites that lose make very good lay opportunities next start as well ;)

partypooper
18th July 2008, 07:55 PM
Chrome, I don't doubt your word, but surely a Bookie could only go bust if he/she was an opinion bookie? As otherwise his book is always balanced to win isn't it? and as I understand it he can always refuse a bet? I'm not deliberately causing an argument, I'm just curious to confirm what I've been led to believe is true!

stugots
18th July 2008, 08:35 PM
plenty of 'smarties' have thought the same - that a bookies license equates to a license to print money.

lol, couldnt be further from the truth, just go to a provincial/county track anywhere & ask the track locals for some bookie stories & enjoy the horror/comedy hour that will ensue.

metro tracks? yeh gods, takes a brave man with deep pockets, 'skinned alive' would best describe what can eventuate once you strap the bag on

if you want 1/2 an idea of what its like spend a day laying on betfair pretending to be bookie, you'll soon discover that your average punter may be a mug but will with regularity NOT do what you want him too, & for every dozen mugs theres a shark in waiting

JoeF
18th July 2008, 09:02 PM
Party, I don't think the bookies can flat out refuse a bet. I think they have to take a bet to lose a certain amount, depending on the area they work in. eg: in country areas they have to take a bet to lose $1000.
They haven't got an upper limit as far as I am aware.

partypooper
18th July 2008, 10:01 PM
Stugots, I definitly didn't consider the license is to print money, I realise there's a lot of brain power required as well to keep that book balanced. But what I was getting at is that LONG TERM the book has to win on %. Those horror stories you mention are usually where the bookie in question has an opinion on the outcome and so does not work to % (well that's how I understand it anyway)

JoeF, yes I read somewhere that they have to take 'A" bet, but then it's up to them, (again thats how I understand it)

odericko
18th July 2008, 10:50 PM
well no doubt you gents and fems disregarded my top drawer
cleaned up today of course and for something differnt ive taken greek boys advice of sorts and bought a couple of nice reds instead of a meal
and im sure when i tell you i have developed a troting lay method there will be much haw hawing.....ty and good night
ps. this morning when i logged on to see if i had any funds left in my uk wallet be aaaaaaed there was an extra 275.00 in there yes thats right extra???
of course i didnt remember what i did so i checked on betfair and apparently i was taking my own advice ......good god

odericko
18th July 2008, 11:31 PM
memo to self not to aaaaed up 85.00 see how we go do not go below 50

odericko
18th July 2008, 11:58 PM
ok next newbury lay cosmea

Chrome Prince
19th July 2008, 12:05 AM
for every dozen mugs theres a shark in waiting

That certainly is spot on in my experiences of trying to make books.
All it takes is one astute person to take you to the cleaners.

Chrome Prince
19th July 2008, 12:21 AM
Chrome, I don't doubt your word, but surely a Bookie could only go bust if he/she was an opinion bookie? As otherwise his book is always balanced to win isn't it? and as I understand it he can always refuse a bet? I'm not deliberately causing an argument, I'm just curious to confirm what I've been led to believe is true!

No worries partypooper,
to answer you....

Opinion bookies go bust, but so do others.
It isn't aways balanced, in fact it is rarely balanced.
The bookie can only refuse a bet over his rails limit, he cannot refuse bets from different people.

He can refuse a bet to lose $10,000 from one guy, but cannot refuse bets to lose $1,000 from twenty guys.

Where this becomes a problem, is when there is a sharp tumble on one runner, every day at every track, there's always a "go" on one runner.

The bookie can't layoff because every other bookie is in the same boat, if he dumps it on the tote, he's making the loss worse,as the odds are usually worse and his cash will make a snowball avalanche, he can dump it on Betfair, but there's not enough liquidity to do so.

So he faces perhaps twice the payout on that horse than any other in the field, and probably for the day.

Enough "right" tumbles in a row could easily see your average bookie hit the wall.
Only the high rollers can weather the storm.

However, it also depends when it happens, if it's early he should be fine, because he can manipulate the book to cause less damage, but if it's a last minute dump (excuse the obvious toilet humour), he can be in serious trouble.

That's why the big boys actually pay for information and have a buddy network like the bureau of meteorology.
They signal incoming shrapnel.

I've been studying bookmakers for quite a while, the secret society, and have a leading bookie in Sydney emailing me often. I am extremely amazed at what a secret society it is, if your not a member, you are the opposition ;)

Try and find bookies ledgers, bookies balancing books, bookies software on Google and all you'll find are vague references and garbage.

I have been educated somewhat though recently, by this bookie and my eyes have been opened somewhat.
It's a much tougher game than punting - believe it or not.
I never did, and now I have a whole new respect for the bagmen.

odericko
19th July 2008, 12:30 AM
typical ...brag and though shalt be humped over by the ever watchful types not unlike your good self chrome
give me my money back ......lol never mind lindsey what comes round goes round

odericko
19th July 2008, 12:45 AM
layed cobo im up thanks chrome i hope i have your cash

Chrome Prince
19th July 2008, 12:48 AM
Huh?

If I've offended you somehow odericko, sorry :(

odericko
19th July 2008, 12:52 AM
lol chrome its all good

odericko
19th July 2008, 12:57 AM
lilac wine is alay what do toy think chrome im on at 245.oo

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:06 AM
viva the wine he he

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:07 AM
lay kelamon

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:08 AM
and pictor

Chrome Prince
19th July 2008, 01:10 AM
oooh kelamon is a tough lay, but good luck with it.

partypooper
19th July 2008, 01:19 AM
well, I can see that you're all "WAY" ahead of me, but I'll just stick to KISS formula, it hasn't fared too bad for me over the years!

In fact I'll tell ya, some of the best "brain waves" that came my way in 30 years of manufacturing were from the sweeper uppers! I'm NOT JOKING! you know a comment "off the cuff" in passing, that caught my attention, and WHAM! why didn't "I" think of that, too close to the wood to see the trees!

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:21 AM
layed rileys

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:23 AM
sweet

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:26 AM
next at sthwell?/ lay the rockdock

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:29 AM
im up enough so im on minum bets from now on i hope

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:34 AM
the rock duck sank ..hehe

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:48 AM
laying broughhohaw

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:52 AM
easy money

odericko
19th July 2008, 01:54 AM
lay the snoopy

Stix
19th July 2008, 02:59 PM
How about back any horse with Ruler in it's name running in Melbourne? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

How about horses 5yo or younger, with TAB #2 jumping from Barrier #2, running in Sydney over distances of greater than 1700m? ;)

odericko
19th July 2008, 05:18 PM
or maybe even
1/sp likely to be <8
2/the horse with the highest win to run ratio ..place it

Stix
24th July 2008, 05:26 PM
Here ya go (Not so) Helpful Harry, this is how you do it:

Must have won last start
Must of finished worse than 9th at 2nd last start
Must of finished worse than 9th at 3rd last start
Must be Saddle cloth number 1 to 9
Must be carrying 56 to 58.5 kg
Must have greater than 6 runners
Must have had one or two runs from a spell
Must be aged between 3yo and 7 yo

S/R Win 20.41%
S/R Plc 44.9%
Win Pot 85.51%
Win Plc 26.73%
Av. Win Div $9.09
Av. Plc Div $2.82

Good Luck...

Shaun
24th July 2008, 06:42 PM
I used to look for horses with atleast 3 runs from spell and form like 110 close to the top weight, gee they could produce some nice prices.

Stix
24th July 2008, 09:56 PM
I used to look for horses with atleast 3 runs from spell and form like 110 close to the top weight, gee they could produce some nice prices.
Sel 504
Won 33 S/R 6.55% Max Div $15.40
Plc 122 S/R 24.21% Max Div $15.8
WLOT 61.1% Av. Div $5.95
PLOT 26.8% Av. Div $3.02

partypooper
25th July 2008, 01:43 AM
Lay maybe?

Stix
27th July 2008, 07:58 PM
How about back any horse with Ruler in it's name running in Melbourne? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Sel 267
Win 21 S/R 7.87%
Win POT 8.8%

(WPOT in professional acceptable range crash ! http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/tongue.gif )

Stix
27th July 2008, 08:01 PM
How about horses 5yo or younger, with TAB #2 jumping from Barrier #2, running in Sydney over distances of greater than 1700m? ;)
Sel 63
Win 15 S/R 23.8%
Plc 36 S/R 57.1%
WPOT 10.8%
PLOT (1.5%)

odericko
1st August 2008, 10:27 PM
and now for the peace of resistance
any race with only 1 starter that has won or placed its last start = lay

MrFugly
7th August 2008, 03:26 AM
im sure that anybody who reads my wonderful posts thinks im a complete ???
but im going to give you my top drawer lay method anyway
1/last 2 starts.= 1st or 2nd or 3rd
2/those last 2 runs in no more than same classHi Odericko,

2/ Same or easier class as the runner your going to lay?

Is this right?

Cheers, MrFugly.

odericko
7th August 2008, 08:26 PM
i only use tabonlines form guide and im no genius so i cant work out the actual class im just going by the numbers class 1 at thangool or class 1 at eaglefarm its all the same to me???
of course there is the odd winner or 2 but you have to use your inner chee as well..
and most important of all try not to use your inner chee and lay the pommy races if you are aaaaed ....this always ends up in disaster trust me iam an aaaaaa at this

Bhagwan
11th August 2008, 12:59 PM
Heres a Lay method that the bookmakers dont want you to know about.
But I am prepared to share & willing to take the risk for sharing this dark secret...
Would you share a system? I just did , why?
Because very few will run with it without changing it in some way, that is human nature in action.
Plus we need Lay bettors to make the win market function more keenly as close to 100% market value as possible & this can only be done if there are plenty of lay bettors out there.

Example .
Have a look at the Betfair UK market compared to the the US market percentages to see what I mean.

LAY SYSTEM
.Target meetings where 4+ venues can be bet on.
This is done to try & avoid anomilies that occure in racing & is often found where there are less than 4 venues being targeted.

.Target races where there are 2 or more last start winners in the race.
Not including resumers.

We are assuming this is a race with some class depth to it & anything should win & usually does.
Just look at some of the prices that get up to win in these type of races.

.From those two or more LS winners, the selection to lose, is the one at the shortest price to lay at 30-60 secs till jump time.

. Stop betting for the day if one gets bit 3 times in a row , it will usually turn out to be one of those strange days where the same thing just keeps happening all day.
I'm sure we have all seen those sort of days from time to time.

Money Management
Bet 1.00% of bank if $5.50 & less.
Bet 0.50% of bank if $5.60-11.00
Bet 0.33% of bank if $11.50-16.00

It works a treat & shows approx 85% success rate.

Stix
24th October 2008, 08:53 AM
How about back any horse with Ruler in it's name running in Melbourne? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

How about horses 5yo or younger, with TAB #2 jumping from Barrier #2, running in Sydney over distances of greater than 1700m? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gifRuler
(Melb):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 33

Wins 3 (S/R 9%)
Plcs 19 (S/R 10%)
WReturn $16.2
WProfit ($16.8)
POT (50.9%)

PReturn $30.3
PProfit ($2.7)
PPOT (8%)


(All States):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 60

Wins 8 (S/R 13%)
Plcs 19 (S/R 32%)
WReturn $69.3
WProfit $9.3
POT 15.5%

PReturn $61.2
PProfit $1.2
PPOT 2.0%


TAB #2 (Sydney):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 2
Wins 1 (S/R 50%)
Plcs 1 (S/R 50%)
Return $2.5
WProfit $0.5
POT 25%

TAB #2 (All States):
1/1/2008....30/09/08
Sel 42
Wins 7 (S/R 17%)
Plcs 98 (S/R 38%)
Return $52
WProfit $10.0
POT 24%