Last Start Winners

[Pauls123]

Hi all,

I guess this question has been asked a zillion times, but for all the data base experts here, may I ask this question please.

What % of winners won their last start and done so within the last 21 days.

I only bet in sydney and melbourne, but any stats would be appreciated,

Thanks again,

Regards
Paul

[Bhagwan]

Approx 20%

[Pauls123]

Thanks for that info. Actually I was thinking about my "short" post after I put it in. I guess to get a truer figure, one would have to eliminate maiden races for obvious reasons.

I really only bet on saturday sydney and melbourne events which pretty much excludes all maiden races. I dont use a mechanical system so to speak, but use a lot of in depth time analysis which involves sectional times.

A lot of my selections would be last start winners and this is why I was interested in the %. After about 4 months of checking my bets I realised that I had a much better strike rate if I eliminated horses from my black book after 21 days.

Thanks again,
Paul

[Bhagwan]

The 20% relates to how many overall winners were last start winners.

It is a different question to ask how many of all the last start winners actually get up to do it again because there can be more than one in every race then the answer is 14.3%.

There is a noticeable improvement if one targets the horses that had won in the last 21 days.

The stats start dropping away after 21 days.

If one wishes to improve the SR of all last start winners. Have a look at this.

.Target the No.1 ranked place-getter in the field.
This is a strong starting point for the exercise , these top ranked without any other criteria win 21% of all races for a small LOT.

Top Plc Ranked and...
.Ran 1st in both last 2 starts SR 28.7% +3% POT
e.g. 1,1

.Ran 1st last start & placed 2nd or 3rd at 2nd LS (e.g. 2,1 or 3,1) SR 24.2% & +21% POT
e.g. 2,1 or 3,1

.Ran 1st at 2ndLS & was placed 2nd or 3rd at its LS 25.5% SR & 19.9% POT
e.g. 1,2 or 1,3

.Ran 1st after resuming SR 29% POT 22% POT
e.g. anything * 1

The worst result was a runner that ran 1st at its 2ndLS & finished unplaced at its LS 18.2% SR , -14.6 LOT
e.g.
1,4 or 1,5 or 1,6 ect.

This is all according to a book I got all this from , the POT looks too generouse to me, but if one uses Betfair I can see it working, but not with the TAB prices.

Cheers.

[Pauls123]

This is most interesting, so what your saying is target the horse with the highest place strike rate, I assume this means win and place strike rate combined. And if this horse meets that criteria, eg.....2, 1........or 3, 1......it becomes a bet,....hmmmm.!

I must think about this. I've pretty much given up on mechanical type systems, as I mentioned earlier. The only other factor I look at apart from the "within 21 days" factor, is I eliminate a horse rising 3kgs or more from its last start.

As I also said I spend a lot of time analysing sectional times and watching the replays that I record from sky channel also. I usually pick up good runs from my spreadsheet where I copy and paste the sectionals in to. Then I watch the replays where you can look for "trapped wide", "checked in running" and similar.

I've now added a further formula to give me the tempo of a race. A run that I would have previously thought was good now might not be such due to the tempo of the race. Eg, a horse coming from the rear and finishing in what looks good times, however the tempo could be very fast for say the first 600m of a 1200m race, which then does not make that run as good as it appears. Or alternatively a horse that races on the pace or leads all the way in a very slowly run race and appears to win well, that run is now not as good as it seems.

But back to your thoughts, I must see what site gives out that info and have a sticky at it.

Regards
Paul

[darkydog2002]

That sort of quality info is available from Malcolm Knowles at inracing.

Cheers.
darky.

[Crackone]

The 20% relates to how many overall winners were last start winners.

It is a different question to ask how many of all the last start winners actually get up to do it again because there can be more than one in every race then the answer is 14.3%.

There is a noticeable improvement if one targets the horses that had won in the last 21 days.

The stats start dropping away after 21 days.

If one wishes to improve the SR of all last start winners. Have a look at this.

.Target the No.1 ranked place-getter in the field.
This is a strong starting point for the exercise , these top ranked without any other criteria win 21% of all races for a small LOT.

Top Plc Ranked and...
.Ran 1st in both last 2 starts SR 28.7% +3% POT
e.g. 1,1

.Ran 1st last start & placed 2nd or 3rd at 2nd LS (e.g. 2,1 or 3,1) SR 24.2% & +21% POT
e.g. 2,1 or 3,1

.Ran 1st at 2ndLS & was placed 2nd or 3rd at its LS 25.5% SR & 19.9% POT
e.g. 1,2 or 1,3

.Ran 1st after resuming SR 29% POT 22% POT
e.g. anything * 1

The worst result was a runner that ran 1st at its 2ndLS & finished unplaced at its LS 18.2% SR , -14.6 LOT
e.g.
1,4 or 1,5 or 1,6 ect.

This is all according to a book I got all this from , the POT looks too generouse to me, but if one uses Betfair I can see it working, but not with the TAB prices.

Cheers.You might want to look at prize money raced for compared to last start aswell (up. down, or the same)

[Bhagwan]

Hi Paul
There is a real art in what you are trying to do there Paul & it can work.
I had a friend who did very well for 9 mnths & made thousands.

I warned him about the run of outs for his SR which was 28% would be approx 20 outs in a row, he didn't believe me & when it happened he was gutted, then stopped doing it. Weird.
If he stuck to it it would easily recoup itself over time.
I guess he didn't have the right temperament & discipline.

I notice you mention Wt up 3kg .
This usually means the horse is coming down in class.

If it happens to be the market Fav, it is considered to be a positive Factor.

But a very negative factor if its not the market Fav.

Its a question of Ying & Yang (Balance of life)

The average prize money as mentioned by Crackbone is also a strong indicator in relation to class up or down.

Have a look at a UK interactive site called Adrien Massey (Google) for some interesting stats.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Bhagwan, being a place bettor (mainly) I am interested the Highest % angle , just one question, did that book that you referred to; mention a minimum number of starts? what I'm getting at of course is that a nag with 2 starts for 2 placings shows up at 100% wheras another with 5 starts for 4 placings shows up as 80%. Personally I would introduce a sub rule : Highest % place getter up to 99% unless at least 5 starts, ....... your thoughts?

[Bhagwan]

You make a logical point there Party.

The figures in the book where just raw figures without anything else like No. of starts.

I feel it gives a strong starting point to frame certain filters, so there is definitely room for improvement .

One observation of mine is horses which have a max of 69% Place rate, seem to perform more consistently than horses greater than this mark, for win betting.

Probable because of the reasons you have outlined.

This could be kept in mind when trying to separate say 2-3 horses.

Cheers.