System

[baco60]

System,
1) No worse than dead track.
2) Placed on last track no worse than dead.
3) Run the same distance as last track.
4) Bet barrier 2-5
5) 8-12 runners
6) Last run 14 days.
7) Top jockey only.
8) Paying less than $3.50.

Could some one test it please?
Baco60

[Shaun]

I couldn't include the jockey in this test.

Selections : 847

Wins : 295
S/R : 34.83%
Return : $739.10
Loss : $107.90
Loss 12.74%
Av/Div : $2.51

Places : 616
S/R : 72.73%
Return : 816.08
Loss : $30.92
Loss : 3.65%
Av/Div : $1.32

Based on 7 years results

[partypooper]

Shaun, that place result looks interesting, are those divies Unitab?

[Shaun]

Not sure, i used the race census program to get that info

[baco60]

Thanks Shaun,
Much appreciated.
B

[Bhagwan]

Hi Baco.
I am assuming the $3.50 rule applies to live market price.

It is very difficult to show a profit in that narrow range using TAB prices.
Betfair would definitely put the idea into profit if one changed the rule for live prices to $2.80-5.00
This is the killing field price range a lot of professionals hone in on.

The Barrier rule may work strongest on races 1200m & less.
Have a look at races 1200m & less.


Try changing the rule about price to...
Must be $3.20-15.00 Pre-post newspaper.
I have found this to be a very strong rule for most systems & has improved a majority of systems showing an initial loss into a profit or less of a loss.

I believe you will see a lower SR but higher ROI (Return on investment).

Cheers.

[baco60]

Thanks for that Bhagwan,
will give it a go with few changes as per recommendation.

[Mr Quaddie]

How about...

Last run within 14 days
Last 3 starts = 9 or less
Leaders or Horse that race in the handy position
Horse must be up in class/weight rise
Must be ridden by a senior rider (no apprentice)
Must be in the first 5 in newspaper prices
Must have raced at track and distance

[crash]

How about...

Last run within 14 days
Last 3 starts = 9 or less
Leaders or Horse that race in the handy position
Horse must be up in class/weight rise
Must be ridden by a senior rider (no apprentice)
Must be in the first 5 in newspaper prices
Must have raced at track and distance

When a horse goes up in class, it usually goes down in weight [?]

[Mr Quaddie]

sorry, was wondering which is a better horse to follow. a horse going down in class which gives it a "class-edge", or a horse that rises in class (trainer is confident it can match the class rise).

i was meant to put a question mark at the end of it.

[crash]

I'd go up in class and down in weight [an improver].

A lot of horses going down in class [up in weight] are generally heading towards the soap factory.

[Chrome Prince]

Shaun, that place result looks interesting, are those divies Unitab?

Those divvies were using victorian dividends up to 2007 and from thereafter queensland because of various restrictions in getting the data.

It tends to balance out mostly evenly in the longrun.

[darkydog2002]

Mr Quaddie.

I would rely on the official race club handicapper to designate the "class " horse (s) of a particular race ( the upper weight brackets ).

Cheers.
darky.