Multi Selections.

[michaelg]

Over the past two weeks I have had very good results with boxed trifectas, quinellas and duets. However, I no longer record the results for trifectas and duets because quinellas have been slightly more profitable which isn't surprising because of the smaller TAB takeout. In fact, I'm yet to have a losing day. Also, I've been backing every selection to win on Betfair using level stakes with good success because of the generally superior prices. Now having said all that...

I'll list today's selections and hope the "going public curse" does not strike.

Echuca:
Race 7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Race 9 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Race 10 nos. 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10

Wagga:
Race 5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 6 nos. 1, 3, 4, 6, 10
Race 7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10

Bathurst:
Race 7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Race 8 nos 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7

Quinella outlay of $146
Win outlay of $52

[michaelg]

Quinellas lost today - an outlay of $146 for a return of $102. Both trifectas and duets both had a small win.

Looking at the Win results over the past 2 weeks (I have been betting on Betfair) I notice that it performed better percentagewise than quinellas.

Today's Win results produced a profit of $13.70 for a POT of 26% on Betfair using a $1.00 level stakes bet - this includes Betfair's 5% takeout. I placed the bets about 15 seconds before the scheduled start-time, and I believe Betfair S.P. prices were slightly better. However, not surprisingly, Unitab suffered a loss of $3.40 as the return was $48.60 which means the/my return on Betfair was 35% better than Unitab.

As my method does not have hard and fast rules (yet) I will from tomorrow continue this thread on the Horse Racing Forum.

[Bhagwan]

Very interesting post Michael.
Can you say what type of races you would target if aiming to bet all runners.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, I don't have hard and fast rules (yet) when identifying qualifying races and selections.

However, there are filters - the minimum runners per race is 9, the max is 16, the max distance is 1,650 metres and every horse in the race must have had at least three starts. I try to pick those races that would have a Betfair fave of a minimum price of $4.00. I've found in these races that the winner very often comes from those in a price range of $7 to $30. I experimented with these races by betting level stakes on each horse in this price range, and over an acceptable period it was showing a small profit. Some of the winners paid double the TAB divvy and almost every one exceeded the TAB divvy. In fact, I can only remember two (after Betfair's 5% takeout) that paid less than the TAB.

Then a couple of weeks ago I wanted to identify these races from the pre-post market so that I no longer had to sit at my 'puter waiting for qualifying races. I use the market in the Telegraph but at the moment it is still a matter of opinion to identify the qualifying races and the selections.

Out of interest I compared the results over the past few days using Unitab and Betfair dividends. For the past 31 races there were 207 selections - Unitab returned $217 (not a losing result) but the return on Betfair (includes 5% takeout) was $247.77. For one reason or another I was not able to bet on all the qualifying races and these are not reflected in the above result, which is a pity because there were a few double-priced winners.

Anyway, it looks promising, especially with Betfair's superior prices. And I would not be surprised if their S.P. market would provide a better bottom line.