pricing the field and betting overlays

[cairnspunter]

Hi there I am new to this forum and am a weekend punter who uses speed ratings as a starting point for picking horses. As I work full time and have 3 young kids, my form study is typcially on a Friday night over a bottle of wine or a few beers. I make my selections on FridaY night but then check the odds on the Saturday and bet online after considering the value of my selections. As I use speed ratings I try to keep to shorter distance races in Sydney Melbourne and Perth. Lately I've been trialling dutch betting where I bet two or 3 horses in a race, and adjust my bet size according to the odds just prior to the race.

My question is this? is there a standard way of pricing a field, and is ther a successful method of then betting the 'overlays' ina race?
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[Sportz]

Do you have any of your ratings from yesterday? If you post a race, perhaps we might be able to show you.

[Bhagwan]

One way that can work is...
. Target fields of 8-9 runners only

.1200m & less

.Target no more than 5 runners.

.Multiply the pre-post price by .90
e.g. $6.00 pre-post x .90 = $5.40

.Bet all the overs by dividing your price into ones base amount .
e.g. Base amount $10 divided by say $5.40 = O/L $1.85

. Bet the ones that are at least 1pt. greater than your price.

Use Betfair Trader Pro, its free (Google RacingTraders) to use these fractional amounts on Betfair.

Cheers.

[maverick1993]

If you are dutch betting i guess you are only looking at your top raters ,,you could do something like this..
Give a final rating out of 10 ,,,

Horse RTG Calculation Winning chance
Makybe Diva 7 ....... .. .7/19 X .8 29.5
Lonhro 7 ....... .7/19 X .8 29.5
Sunline 3 ....... .... .3/19 X .8 12.6
Kingston Town 2 ........ ...2/19 X .8 8.4
total 19

Makybe Diva 100/29.5 price $3.40
Lonhro 100/29.5 price $3.40
Sunlne 100/12.6 price $8.00
Kingston Town 100/8.4 price $12.00

This helped me alot when i started out,,,got it from a site somewhere ...
The .8 is of course framing the market at 80% ...taking into account the horses not listed ,,this would also be in a 10-12 horse field...i'd go alittle higher in a smaller field and smaller in a larger field..

Hope this helps,,but if you search this forum you'll find heaps of helpfull articles..

[Crackone]

Hi there I am new to this forum and am a weekend punter who uses speed ratings as a starting point for picking horses. As I work full time and have 3 young kids, my form study is typcially on a Friday night over a bottle of wine or a few beers. I make my selections on FridaY night but then check the odds on the Saturday and bet online after considering the value of my selections. As I use speed ratings I try to keep to shorter distance races in Sydney Melbourne and Perth. Lately I've been trialling dutch betting where I bet two or 3 horses in a race, and adjust my bet size according to the odds just prior to the race.

My question is this? is there a standard way of pricing a field, and is ther a successful method of then betting the 'overlays' ina race?
<!-- / message -->This spread sheet mite help with the pricing, picked it up of the net somewhere, its for a field of ten, I have one sheet for fields 5 to 20 don't use them but mite help you.

[Try Try Again]

Crackone,

Would you be kind enough to give a list of what each heading is and what figures you would enter.

It is probably obvious but I can't see it.

Thanks

[Crackone]

Crackone,

Would you be kind enough to give a list of what each heading is and what figures you would enter.

It is probably obvious but I can't see it.

ThanksWill try as I said haven't used it
Bar - Barrier
Wt/Min- just the weight?
3LSV third last start not sure what the v (could be price) is for.
Days ago- how long from last start
L/S B/M- last start beaten margin
$$$u/d/s - race prize money up down same
LSD +/- last start distance + or -
W/100?- I think should be winning %

If you unlock the spreadsheet and unhide the columns you can see the calculations it may help also (you could change it to suit your own needs)

[thorns]

Hey crackone, was that the one available from a particular systems website? Have you played round with it much? Any success with it?

Cheers

[cairnspunter]

Hi Sportz, I have a booklet of par times for all of the usual racetracks but I focus on Perth, Sydney and Melbourne. After each Saturday meet I record the times in an exercise book and using the techniques in a bookelt published by 'horsetorque' I adjust the raw times for the type of race concerned (eg a 2yr fillies race, open handicap race, etc) and the state of the track. I then record the results in the book and so over time have built up a database (on paper not on the computer unfortunately) of speed ratings for each horse. So when I am doing the form on a Friday night I look at the horses previous starts and list the speed rating that horse achieved on that day. The speed rating is a number relative to 100, so anything over 105 catches my eye, as does anything over 95 ist up. So for example on the weekend I shortlisted the following horses:

Perth:
Black in Time 96 ist up
Danny Beau 98 ist up
Dark Target 110 ist up
Kens Double 109
Nollomara 109

From the above I bet on Dark Target and Kens Double

Melbourne:

Bolle 111
Commanding Hope 119
Heart 111
Scenic Silver 120
Speedymac 115
Streetcar Desire 109
Stavka 121
THreedee 112
Apple Lode 108

Out of these I backed Stavka, Threedee and Applelode in the one race.

So the inital cut is made based on the 105/95 rule and then I have a closer look and consider things such as the likley pace of the race, barrier position, and if the horse is up in weights and distance, etc.

So despite betting on 3 races and have 2 winners out of the three, I ended up about $1 behind, so must be doing something wrong. It didn't help that Stavka and Dark Target were so short.

[maverick1993]

Hi Cairns ,,,i used to be all over speedratings. But sometimes they can be misleading but if you take into account Tempo , interference , wide run ect where would we be without them ,,

I think Sportz means for you to rate a whole race or atleast your top 5 chances so he can show you how to convert the ratings to prices and give you tips on how to bet the overlays.. (check out Baggies method ,,looks good)

If you were dutching on the weekend and won on the race where you had the 3 selections ,,how did you lose ??

[schonegg]

cairnspunter,
well done. You keep track of details 'on paper'? You've got a pc so use of Access/Excel will greatly speed up your time and possibly accuracy(with Queries, functional analysis etc.)

[Crackone]

Hey crackone, was that the one available from a particular systems website?Dont now where I got them now
Have not used them was going to play around with them but doing something else now.

[cairnspunter]

Thanks Bhagwan, can I ask a stupid question here? what do you mean by base amount? do you mean units of betting, ie when you use the example of $10, you are using a $10 bet as an example?

[cairnspunter]

Thanks Maverick, I pride myself on my maths ability but am a bit lost here so will ask stupid question #2 for the evening - does the 19 denominator in each calculation mean there are 19 horses in the field?

[cairnspunter]

Thanks Mverick, it seems a little subjective but I suppose as long as you are consistent then that doesn't matter.

[cairnspunter]

cairnspunter,
well done. You keep track of details 'on paper'? You've got a pc so use of Access/Excel will greatly speed up your time and possibly accuracy(with Queries, functional analysis etc.)
For Sydney, Melbourne and Perth I put the Saturdays calculations in an exercise book for each city. Each meeting takes about 1/2hr -3/4hr to do. I really should set something up in a spreadsheet but I just haven't bloopdy well got round to it. I know that in the long run it will end up easier and quicker but I'm a bit time poor. One thing I like about having the actual cutouts from the paper (I use the Sunday Mail in QLD) is that there is a fair bit of information you can flick to at a glance.

I've been at it since about April last year so have got a pretty good database on paper which really should be put into a spreadsheet. Once you get more than a year you can check up on horses that are resuming after a spell and you can have a fair bit of history of races there to peruse.

[cairnspunter]

Hi Cairns ,,,i used to be all over speedratings. But sometimes they can be misleading but if you take into account Tempo , interference , wide run ect where would we be without them ,,

I think Sportz means for you to rate a whole race or atleast your top 5 chances so he can show you how to convert the ratings to prices and give you tips on how to bet the overlays.. (check out Baggies method ,,looks good)

If you were dutching on the weekend and won on the race where you had the 3 selections ,,how did you lose ??
How did I lose? The bets were as follows (I used 'top fluc' at Canbet)

Kens Double bet $5 win - Lost
Dark Target bet $5 win - Won paid $1.50
Threedee bet $3 win - Lost
Applelode bet $3 win - Lost
Stavka bet $4 win - Won paid $2.80

Note that the last 3 selections were in the same race.

So for an outlay of $20 I got back $18.70

So I guess the lesson here is I should have put more on Stavka, knowing it was so short.

I know these are piddling amounts but to me its the principle of the matter that's important, the amounts don't matter.

[maverick1993]

Hi Cairns ,

If you had dutched say to profit $100 per race

Kens double @ 2.30 outlay $77 lost $77

Dark Target @ 1.50 outlay $200 won $100

Stavka @ 2.50 outlay $145 return $362
Threedee @ 5.60 outlay $65
Apple Lode @ 6.90 outlay $52 profit with stavka winning $100

This using really bad unitab dives puts you up $123

with that 19 figure in my original post thats just the total of the ratings of the 4 horses i selected ...you could use your own method with the 100 to 121 ratings and just use the same principal..

[Crackone]

cairnspunter you need a dutching calculator

[Bhagwan]

Hi Cairns punter,
That $10 is the allocated base amount for each horse.
You can make this to be 1/40th of your bank.

There is a built in Dutching calculator than do this same exercise for you in the Bet Trader Pro program that I mentioned before, they call it the Bookie program.
You simply place say $10 in the top box then enter your accessed odds into the horses cell next to it, then submit each one individually as their prices come to be greater than your assessed price.
Its all worked out for you.
It works a treat for this exercise.

[cairnspunter]

Thanks very much for the advice Bhagwan and co, much appreciated. I guess the money management side of things is as important as the selection process.