System: "Winning Flat Sires"

[Glenno]

Rules:

Rule 1: Identify the top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny during the previous racing season. For example, if using the system in 2008/09 season, check the sire stats for races won during the 2007/08 season.

Rule 2: Identify the progeny of those sires running today.

Rule 3: Bet them all to win, unless there is more than one in the same race, in which case there is no bet for that particular race.

System applies to flat races only (not jumps).

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2007/08 were: Encosta de Lago, Commands and Scenic.


Staking:

5pts to win on each selection.

Logic:

Some sires are responsible for providing many winners whilst a large percentage produce very few or none, although it is true to say that many of them had very few runners.

Three sires were each responsible for 150 or more race successes during 2007/08 (Encosta de Lago 204, Commands 182 and Scenic 161). Individual strike rates for sires can be misleading because two or more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.

[baco60]

What kind of racing language is this?

[the sundance kid]

Very interesting -

When you refer to the number of winners sired by these three sires do you include racing throughout Australia (country and provincial) and NZ or just metrop racing?

[Glenno]

Very interesting -

When you refer to the number of winners sired by these three sires do you include racing throughout Australia (country and provincial) and NZ or just metrop racing?
It includes racing throughout Australia only (metropolitan, country and provincial).

[Glenno]

2/8/2008

Caulfield race 4 #10 Utterly Fantastic (Encosta de Lago) 1st $49.00 $7.80
Caulfield race 6 #5 Commanding Hope (Commands) 1st $16.60 $3.40
Caulfield race 8 #16 Sea Eye Pea (Commands)
Rosehill race 3 #3 Don't Tell Ted (Scenic) 2nd $3.30
Rosehill race 5 #1 Commanding Victory (Commands)
Rosehill race 6 #2 Keen Commander (Commands)
Rosehill race 7 #7 Dothis Dothat (Commands)
Rosehill race 8 #13 Festus Hagen (Commands)
Doomben race 2 #13 Call to Order (Commands)
Morphettville race 3 #8 Frolicsome (Encosta de Lago)
Morphettville race 7 #13 She's Commanding (Commands)

[the sundance kid]

Thanks for that Glenno - I think Ill be looking more closely at sires from now on.
All we need to do now is prune the list down with a few rules?

Any suggestions?

[Glenno]

The top three in terms of winners for the 2010/11 season were Commands, Encosta De Lago and Lonhro. These three are to be follow for the whole of 2011/12 season for the purpose of the system.

[thorns]

Interesting Glenno, how did it perform last season, any stats?

[Glenno]

Interesting Glenno, how did it perform last season, any stats?
I have not recorded the results so far, but the qualifiers would have been those who sires were Commands, Redoute's Choice and Encosta de Lago.

[Glenno]

2/8/2011
Nowra race 7 Davone Princess (Commands) unplaced

[petstep]

5th Aug.Geelong R7 On My Command (Commands) $30.60 $5.10 (Unitab)

[Glenno]

All we need to do now is prune the list down with a few rules?

Any suggestions?
What am I now doing to record all the qualifiers from the three sires, regardless of the number of qualifiers in a race. I'm using a spreadsheet appliction on a computer to record the results. I am thinking of several factors to consider.

5th Aug.Geelong R7 On My Command (Commands) $30.60 $5.10 (Unitab)
Thank for letting me know that.

3/8/2011
Canterbury race 5 Savannah River (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Canterbury race 6 Oakfield Commands (Commands) unplaced
Canterbury race 7 Zastava (Encosta de Lago) 3rd NTD
Mornington race 2 Rowland (Lonhro) unplaced
Mornington race 5 Seasons Of Fortune (Lonhro) unplaced
Mornington race 6 What A Treat (Lonhro) unplaced

4/8/2011
Coffs Harbour race 4 Rosewater (Commands) unplaced
Coffs Harbour race 7 Delago Star (Encosta de Lago) unplaced

6/8/2011
Belmont race 5 Kim Classic (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Belmont race 6 Kawatiri (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Doomben race 4 Domras (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Doomben race 5 Lone Assassin (Lonhro) 3rd $2.50 (SuperTAB)
Flemington race 2 Club Command (Commands) 2nd $1.30
Flemington race 5 Commanding Hope (Commands) unplaced
Flemington race 7 Wookah (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Morphettville race 6 Zakumi (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Randwick race 2 Champalou (Encosta de Lago) unplaced
Randwick race 5 Aeronautical (Encosta de Lago) 1st $6.30 $2.00

[petstep]

6/8. Rand. R7 Othello (encosta de lago) $5.30 $1.60 (unitab).

[TheSchmile]

Hi Glenno,

You've picked a fine sire in Commands for certain. Wins on all types of going, in fact his heavy track stats are 1% better than his good track stats.

Plenty of action also with 2225 individual runs in 2010/11. Obvious early filters would be to leave out maidens and 2yo races.

Looking at the figures below for top trainer stats makes for interesting reading:

PETER SNOWDEN 125 18%
JOHN HAWKES 78 18%
JOSEPH PRIDE 24 29%
NICK OLIVE 19 28%
LUKE GRIFFITH 18 24%
DARREN SMITH 16 31%
D L FREEDMAN 16 25%
BARBARA JOSEPH 16 20%
JOHN O'SHEA 15 20%
PETER MOODY 14 33%
SHANE CLARKE 13 32%
JOHN SIZE 12 22%
J MANZELMANN 12 30%
GRANT DELANEY 12 39%

You can boost the winning percentage instantly just by focusing on top trainers. There is still plenty of action, especially from the Snowden camp.

You can find these stats at:
Commands stats at racing and sports (http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/viewStallion.asp?id=3AD0E57873199AD640972835)

Best of luck Glenno, if you keep following this ultra reliable sire, I don't think you'll be too far off the mark.

Cheers,

The Schmile

[Glenno]

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2012/13 were:

Australia: Bel Esprit; Exceed and Excel; Lonhro.

New Zealand: O'Reilly; Keeper; Darci Brahma.

[CosMos]

Glenno:

Lonhro 2012/2013 128 individual runners, 104 individual winners, 2075 total runs, 251 wins (12%)

Therefore, backing all Lonhro progeny in all starts failed to win 88% of the time. To break even you would need an average win dividend of around $8.27. Even a longshot at say $40 would only cover (break even) 5 losing runners.

The problem with the top sires is that they are often overbet and do not offer value unless some sort of filters are put in place. By the way, from my studies the average sire's runners consistency is around 9-11%. Even the top sires only get around 13-16% consistency. For instance, More Than Ready who I rate as a very good sire got 13% consistency during this period.

Even the great Danehill when at his best could only get 16% (tops) consistency from his progeny

Cheers, Rich

[Glenno]

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2012/13 were:

Australia: Bel Esprit; Exceed and Excel; Lonhro.

New Zealand: O'Reilly; Keeper; Darci Brahma.
Correction: The qualifiers for Australia are Bel Esprit (155), Exceed and Excel (142), and Fastnet Rock (136).

[Glenno]

Correction: The qualifiers for Australia are Bel Esprit (155), Exceed and Excel (142), and Fastnet Rock (136).Another correction: The qualifiers for Australia are Bel Esprit (249), Exceed and Excel (233), and Lonhro (225).

The update is based on the system's rules which state that the qualifiers are based on the number of races won, not the number of winners.

[Glenno]

The top three in terms of wins for the 2013/14 season were Lonhro, Bel Esprit and Choisir. These three are to be follow for the whole of 2014/15 season for the purpose of the system.

[Glenno]

Moonee Valley race 3 Rowland unplaced
Rosehill race 2 Chez Harmony unplaced
Rosehill race 4 Territory unplaced
Rosehill race 7 Wouldnt It Be Nice 3rd NTD
Rosehill race 8 Black Revolver dead heat 2nd 1.80
Eagle Farm race 6 Hora Sexta unplaced
Eagle Farm race 8 Accidental unplaced
Morphettville Parks race 3 Belfast Boy unplaced
Morphettville Parks race 8 Knockfin Road unplaced

Not a good day for the system. No wins and just one paying place dividend from nine selections.

[Glenno]

The top three sires in terms of races won during 2014/15 were: Lonhro (248), Bel Esprit (238), and Choisir (237).