4th up system!

[haveadip]

Hey guys havn't been on here in ages..
But i just thought i would chuck this system up that i put together using the DFS computers at the TAB

* Must be fourth up from spell(not sure what the computer judges a spell as)
* Must have finished out of placings in all 3 starts this prep
* Must have had at least 7 career starts
* Must have had a minimum of 2 career placings
* Must be in the top 5 for average prizemoney per race.
* Field size is must be at least 7 horses prior to scratchings.

This system is obviously aimed at picking up double figure overs playing off the tab sheets only showing last 3 starts. The rule regarding prizemoney is in there to strike out the donkeys that wouldnt do anything 1st 2nd or any-up.
If anyone could check this system on their records it would be much appreciated.
Made a profit on Saturday and broke even Sunday, today had 5 selections for a very profitable result.

Darwin Race 3 #7, Won paying $8
Moe Race 5 #6, Won paying $22
Cessnock Race 3 #2 Ran 3rd paying $27 for the win
" " Race 6 #12 Ran like a donkey $22 for the win
Forbes Race 4 #8 Ran 2nd paying $8 the win.

I'm guessing it would be hard to be profitable with any system betting with the tab, so i'm guessing with a long shots system that betfair would be preferable.
Cheers Trev

[crash]

Actually not a bad system and I really like most of it [especially 4th up], but it has an odd point that doesn't seem to line up. 7 starts min, with 2 career placings? How does that get the horse into the top 5 average prize-money earnings unless it's running at Hanging Rock or another very low class field of chaff bandits?

Might be good to put on a price max. But geez, at the prices coming up it would have to be $25/$30?

[Bhagwan]

The plan can work well,

especially if one adds the rule...

10 runners exactly.

This increases its SR & reduces the run of outs.

Cheers.

[Shaun]

I like the system but i would blackbook them so if they didn't win today you could follow them, if you include a min win % that would also rule out donkeys

[haveadip]

Yeh i would scrap the 2 placings thing and just stick with the 7 starts.
The win% is a fair idea but I think one of the winners was a 10 year old, who was just majorly down in class and obviously needed the three runs.

Only picked up 3 selections tommorow and possibly only two runners.
Wodonga Race 5 #2
Ballarat Race 7 310
Townsville Race 8 #11

[crash]

Might be worth following the system as is for awhile unless someone can do the stats. for the last year. Nice results so far!

[Stix]

Using >15% plc S/Rate (Metro only) & 7 runners or less

1/7/07-
Sel 77
Wins 12
S/R 15.5%
Profit 4.5 units
POT 5.84%
Min div $2.8
Max Div $23.0

Using >29% plc S/Rate (Metro only)

1/7/07-
Sel 66
Wins 11
S/R 16.7%
Profit 12.7 units
POT 19.24%
Min div $3.3
Max Div $23.0

[Stix]

Using >15% plc S/Rate (Metro only) & 7 runners or less

1/7/07-
Sel 77
Wins 12
S/R 15.5%
Profit 4.5 units
POT 5.84%
Min div $2.8
Max Div $23.0

Using >29% plc S/Rate (Metro only)

1/7/07-
Sel 66
Wins 11
S/R 16.7%
Profit 12.7 units
POT 19.24%
Min div $3.3
Max Div $23.0
4-7yo only

1/7/07-
Sel 28
Wins 7
S/R 25%
Profit 8.3 units
POT 29.64%
Min div $3.3
Max Div $8.7
Av Div 5.19

[haveadip]

So stix those figures are only for fields of 7 or less???
Do you have any results for larger field sizes? And judging by your records it looks as if this system may be better for place betting.
Was just wondering if maybe the top 5 in prizemoney limits the selections slightly. For example it might not be worthwhile having the 5th highest av prizemoney horse in an 8 horse field, also the 6th higest av prizemoney horse in say a 14 horse field might yield a profit.
Would there be much change if the rule was changed to must have a higher av prizemoney than the average for the field??

[haveadip]

Also stix, when you say metro only, would that just be for example say Flemington, Caulfield, the Valley, Sandown etc. Perhaps at smaller type tracks this system could be more profitable as the form is analysed less...

[haveadip]

Just for interests sake, a similar molded system but for third up horses.


* Must be third up from spell
* Must have finished fifth at best two starts ago
* Must have finished fourth at best last start
* Must have had at least 7 career starts
* Must be in the top 5 for average prizemoney per race.
* Field size must be at least 8 horses prior to scratchings.

This system will probably throw up a lot more selections leading to a lot more donkeys, but i think with some tinkering this system could have moderate success. Also as bhagwan said before I guess if you had time to watch the race you could Blackbook some horses for a 4th up start if they have no luck or run on strongly.
Maybe you could possibly say that any horse who has been unplaced from 3 or more 3rd up runs is ruled out???
Todays 3rd up system selections:

Townsville
Race 2 #3 and #8
Race 3 #1
Race 4 #4
Race 7 #7
Coffs Harbour
Race 4 #1
Wodonga
Race 7 #1

[crash]

I'd love someone to do the stats on the 'original' system which didn't mention 7 or less horses. It was 7 or more before scratchings and 4th up. not third up.

[haveadip]

Post edited.
Flaming.

Please avoid giving ulterior motives to forum members.
Moderator.

[Crackone]

I'd love someone to do the stats on the 'original' system which didn't mention 7 or less horses. It was 7 or more before scratchings and 4th up. not third up.Who would have the DFS ratings? Not many if anyone and did notice that one of the selections today on Unitab had it second up.

[crash]

Agreeing with a flaming post is a flame. Last warning.
Moderator.

[Stix]

Please do not retaliate. There is a TOU button to press.
Moderator.

[haveadip]

Don't understand where you guys are coming from, try and do a favour and get this childish dribble. All the best.Come again mate??
Results for Tuesday the 5th
2 selections:
Wodonga Race 5 #2 Won paying $6.80 s-tab
Townsville race 8 #11 DNP

On a side note:
7 selections for the third up system:
Two winners paying $9, $5.50
Townsville Race 2 #8 and Race 3 #1
One third Race 2 #3 $1.80
Four unplaced including two black bookers
Phase one: Was blocked for run, will be at juicy each way odds next start, in similar race/
Emmooki Street: Ran on strongly will be right in it next start!

[haveadip]

Wednesday 6th August selections
4th up
Sandown Race 2#4
Race 7 #3 (last win was this exact race last year, will be massive overs, great place bet)
Belmont Race 3#10
Doomben Race 5 #1

3rd up - small change(must have placed at least once in the distance range)

Kembla Grangeeeee Race 2 #2

Doomben Race 7#1 (poor third up record)

Morphetville
Race 6 #9
Race 9 #7

Belmont
Race 2 #14

Race 9 #13

[haveadip]

Yesterdays selections resulted in one scratching two unplaced and a third at Doomben paying $1.90
Todays selections are:
Coffs Harbour: Race 5 #4 and Race 6 #3
Gosford Race 7 #5
Bendiigo Race 6 #4
Rockhampton Race 7 #2