Portfolio of Systems

[Merriguy]

Does anyone have a Portfolio of Systems?

Read any of the overseas forums and almost everyone (?) talks these days, of having a Portfolio of Systems. It is something that is rarely, if ever, referred to here. Yet surely it makes sense.

One of the contributors I was reading today had this to say:

My advice for anyone who is feeling frustrated is to start building a portfolio and operate them (sic) in the same way you would a shares portfolio. When you do that a bad month from one system doesn’t hurt you, because the others generally make up the deficit. It’s rare that nothing performs, no matter what you use.

Anyone care to comment?

[Shaun]

I would agree totaly and have been doing this for years, i run up to 5 different plays mostly win/place/exotics/stable runners/laying all the systems are designed different so i rearly have the same horses in different systems.

I use 1 bank and bet different percentages for different systems, at the moment i am trying to introduce sports betting in to my portfolio.

I wouldn't recomend it for anyone that has large amounts of bets for each system as you can be investing a lot of your bank each day.

[Bhagwan]

That is a very good question.
I believe it can be a good idea, especially if one likes to set & forget.

If one is considering the idea, I believe it is a strong idea not to double up on any duel selections from the various systems being used , this stops the cannibalisation of any profits.
Just because it is selected twice , does not mean it has twice the chance of winning.

Try & work to a total bank of betting 200:1 ratio.
Any less than this , one will find it harder to deal with the ever changing frustrations of punting.
That way one is more likely to stick to ones plans of attack, it also makes it a lot easier to manage.
If a profit is made for the month, adjust bets up.
If a loss is made, adjust bets down, all at the 200:1 ratio.
This keeps it more manageable & ones brain wont get so scrambled during a bad run, knowing we can reset the balance to a 200:1 ratio, if need be.

If one would like to computerise the selection method , one could consider using the GTX program. But it does come at a price which one has to try & justify.
With this , one could have 200 systems & it will work out the whole lot in less than 5 seconds & this includes the scratchings.

The best systems I have come across, only seem to have about 1-5 bets a month, betting 7 days a week.
So if one had say 100 systems all going at once, there would be approx 250 bets a month.
Again, try not double up on duel selections.

So one can see, that one would go crazy if one had to do all this manually , only to end up with zero selections for the day for a particular system.
The day would be over before one had any time to put the bets on.

It is a strong idea to place ones bets with someone like IAS Supper Price which offers best of 2 Totes, or better still Betfair SP if it ever gets up & running in this country for all races, because the value can be terrible if one is using logic to formulate the selections, then placing the bet on your TAB account.
Your good logic is often reflected in its final price .

If the systems are based on form logic, you will notices when they win , the return is terrible, when they lose , their price can be excellent , but it did not win and that will continue until one is fed up with the constantly small percentage LOT.
So don't bet with your local TAB if one wishes to have any hope of long term profits.

I have found the best systems work on following what is happening in the market , race to race, narrowing the chances down to 2-3 chances.


Cheers.

[Top Rank]

It is a simple enough notion, but you presumably have to have a portfolio of "systems" that in the long run, all show a profit. Tough enough to find one for some.

[Crackone]

It is a simple enough notion, but you presumably have to have a portfolio of "systems" that in the long run, all show a profit. Tough enough to find one for some.Thats what I thought as well then thought about it, most punters would now of a system that would work but dont have the discipline to follow it.

[Bhagwan]

It's not as difficult as one may first think.
But it can be very time consuming, if doing it manually.

There are heaps of systems that one can buy for very little money, see Ebay UK or Australia for example & there, one can buy things like 20 systems for $10.
This is usually emailed to you the next day.

Then what one does is find something that has a 50% SR for its 3 selections.
e.g. tipsters, ratings , pre-post market, Neurals.

Then apply the systems over these 3 selections.

What one should find is that one should end up with a SR of approx 20-25%

Then try not to back any selections under $3.30

If one wishes to place bets on a set & forget basis, use the pre-post market to delete any selection less than $3.30

This will usually drop ones SR but usually increase ones POT ,which is the name of the game.

For example.
Here's one System to start with that hits a number of winners.
.Target your favorite tipsters top 2 selections.
.These usually win between 35-45% of all races.
.Selection is the horse with the highest place percentage up to 69%
.We delete any greater than 69%.
.Must be $3.30+ in pre-post market.
As primitive this looks , it can often strike many winners on a good day.

Try & remember, the fewer the rules a system has , the more likely it is to repeat it's results into the future.
Complicated is bad, OK.

Use Betfair for best prices if betting live, race to race or maybe use their SP if available or use a mob like IAS super price or Centre Bet which offer best of 3 Totes if one wishes to place all bets at once..

What ever one does, do not place your bets with your local TAB because long term you will approx break even.

To test what we are saying, just have a look at say the Fav at 1 min till jump & compare this to what Betfair is offering.
Try & do the comparison by converting is price to fractional odds , so as to get a clearer picture of what we are looking at.
Example.
TAB price maybe say $3.30 = 2.3/1
Betfair price maybe say $4.30 = 3.3/1
Diff is 1/1 divided by the 2.3/1 = 43.5% difference.

This is a conservative example, I saw one today where the Fav was $2.80 & on Betfair it was $4.00, which won.
That's a 66.6% difference.

You don't have to be an accountant to work out that this is a huge difference.
Would you pay 43.5% more for your petrol just because they want your money, when you can use the mob at the next corner?
They should earn your business, not expect it.
It's the same with punting.
Once you use Betfair for one day , one will realise how long the TABs have been ripping the punter all these years.

I hear the NSW TAB wants to introduce a percentage charge on all revenue because they are supplying a form coverage service, they are starting to behave like a banks do. One would think it would be the tools of doing basic business to attract customers, not turn them off.

If one wishes to place bets under the $6 Betfair min. download the FREE program, BetTraderPro (through RacingTraders.com)
With this, one can place bets as low as 1c.

Cheers.

[jfc]

If one wishes to place bets under the $6 Betfair min. download the FREE program, BetTraderPro (through RacingTraders.com)
With this, one can place bets as low as 1c.

Cheers.

Whereupon one can expect this form of love letter from the Betfair Verification Team:

"In line with our policy on these matters, we have frozen and seized the profits which accrued to your account from this activity and your account has been permanently closed."


http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=32&threadID=1623946

Believe it or not.

[Shaun]

Whereupon one can expect this form of love letter from the Betfair Verification Team:

"In line with our policy on these matters, we have frozen and seized the profits which accrued to your account from this activity and your account has been permanently closed."


http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=32&threadID=1623946

Believe it or not.
I am not sure what you were doing to get that letter but betfair do allow betting below the minimun as long as you are not stupid about it and try to bet with small amounts like 10c betfair need to make a profit to run if you keep your bets at say minimum $2 to $4 then you should be fine.

If you can't afford this amount then you are not serious about making money because you should always bet to your bank and even a $500 bank you would be betting $5 at 1%

[crash]

Wouldn't it be necessary for all the sytems to be winning sytems supporting each other's outs? Throw in a loosing system at it's eating the winning systems.

[Bhagwan]

That's the reason why one uses a system over the 3 selections that have a 50% SR so as to minimise the damage of a low performing system , just by default its SR should be approx 17%. (1/3rd of 50%)

One is assuming that all systems being used have been at least back tested to see if they have any potential.

Correspondingly,there is still nothing to stop a system that has been performing well to have a poor run. Do you drop it or allow it to run its course?

We never know when a system will perform well in the forthcoming month, some will profit massively well, where it may have performed poorly the month or two before , some will break even or small loss & some will have a run of outs after performing well the month before.

The combined overall result is what we try to focus on.
If one keeps chopping & changing every month , there will not be any consistency for the systems to do their thing.

If our SR is around the 24% mark , this means we are on track, the trick now is to make sure we do not double up on duel selections & get the best prices possible by not using the local TAB.