First 5 Lines

[JoeF]

First 5 lines of Pre-post market for today

25 races/24 winners
The odd one out Sr5 h8 (6th line)

And yes Party if we throw in the PPM's we get the lot again!!

[partypooper]

Bank Robber only 2 lengths away last run, not bad!

[crash]

125 bets for 24 winners. I wonder how that turned out, profit or loss?

[peterpan]

JoeF,

Just out of curiosity which prepost market are you using.

[Mancunian]

125 bets for 24 winners. I wonder how that turned out, profit or loss?Crash, have a look at my post under Dutch betting..

cheers ........Mancunian

[JoeF]

Peterpan I use the Pre-post from the Friday Courier Mail. (QLD)
Although it wouldn't really matter as long as you stick with the one.

Crash, I see your point, but there is actually more than 125 selections as they take into account equal selections as well. for instance Mr5 there were 7 horses on the first 5 lines of betting.
This started out as an observation in another thread, but rather than hog it, I've started it's own.

Was originally posed as a good base for starting form study, ie: a set of ratings of a sort. It has a fantastic strike rate but would probably show a level stakes loss. Any thoughts on how to trim the final qualifiers would be nice.

I tend to use it as a filter to cut down on form study time, which it does quite admirably.

Party, that should have read Mr5 h8 OUR MONTAGUE as the odd one out. In fact a having a closer (sober?) look at it, reveals it was actually on the 5th line so 25/25, no need for PPM's this week. :-)

[crash]

I agree Joef. The first 5 betting lines can have a lot of horses on them. I've done the dutch betting trip on those lines several times in the past and it leads to the soup kitchen. However as an area to focus form study, they are great.

[JoeF]

From Sat, Eastern States only
253 runners/159 horses on FFL

25 Races/25 winners from FFL

159 qualifiers/25 Winners....Vee....94 non qualifiers/0 winners.

So in reality greater than 1/3 of the field can be culled with great accuracy and all for the price of a daily paper and 10 minutes with a pen.

Now, to just get the selections down to 2 or 3 a race and it's good-bye the ute and hello the Roller!!!!!!!!

[Pauls123]

Hi all,

I was intrigued with this top 5 favourite plan that is being tossed around here So I decided to look at todays Taree meeting (sunday), and only used Taree just because I live in that area (mid north coast). But I varied your paper favs slightly. I used the IAS opening prices and then looked at the top 5 there, a couple of races there might have been 6 for obvious reasons.

I then deleted any horses that DID NOT run within the last 21 days. This picked the winner in 5 of the 8 races. Also using IAS Super Price one would have outlayed $31 (for 31 bets) and got back $38.11.

This reduced the 40 or so horses on an 8 event program down to 31, does anyone have another simple but powerful filter ? I can only imagine the success on this one program would not hold up all the time.

Any further thoughts.....!!

Regards
Paul

[partypooper]

G'day Pauls 123,

Honest I've been down this path inside and out and upside down and cannot get the plan to break even (over a long period) any which way. Now using Betfair in many a complicated way, may do it but it's beyond me!

I did converse with a bloke from SA who reckoned he'd cracked it using level stakes , and although he wouldn't reveal the Golden Goose, I managed to narrow things down as follows:

Handicaps only.
Top 6 in field (e.g. Tab Nos 1-6 if no scratchings)
Last run within 21 days
Finished within 3.5 lengths of winner last start.
Allotted weight within 3.5 k's of allotted weight last start (up or down, ignore all claims)

Never got around to doing a work out as I'm long hand, but maybe one of the boys with the gear can do it quick.

[Luckyboy]

partypooper,

The first six TAB numbers is a definite 'improving' filter after culling to the first five lines. But, the most powerful filter is race type selection. 'All handicaps' is still far too broad to be successful.

On average my race culling filter will see me analyse 16-18 races of the usual 32 available across S/M/B/A Saturday metro.

If I can give the simplest piece of advice to anybody on the punt, that is you cannot bet and win by betting in every race. It is impossible...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Pauls123]

It's a tricky one, knowing which races to bet on and which to not. I always look at these simple type systems, the other day I thought I had a good one after looking at a "few days" of racing. Looking at the top 3 opening favs on IAS and backing the one that firmed the most up till a couple of minutes prior to jump. The first couple of days was amazing, wow, how long has this been going on. Then the usual wheel falls off trick.

Apart from these "simple systems" I spend a lot of time analysing sectional times and watching replays of races and transporting data to spreadsheets. Over the last two years I'm quite happy with my results and strike rate and profit. But this of course is not a "system". This only applies to saturday racing in sydney and melbourne.

I'd like to come up with something to fill in the gaps on week days when something like what we are talking about here works. I've thought about buying that book from aaaaaaa I think called "Market Forces" which I tend to think somehow applies to what we are talking about. The couple of books I have already bought from them arent to bad, but they do seem to just advertise their product. I cant say that I have really won on anything in those books. Has anyone else bought this book and thought it ok...?

Paul

[partypooper]

careful there Pauls, getting close to contravening Forum rules, but in short, I admit (several years ago) to buying a couple of "things" the result was "KRAPP"

[crash]

I've had a bit of success backing 2nd and 3rd pre-post favorites from the Winning Post at Sat Metro. as long as their SP is above $3.50. It would probably work just as well from any other form guide source.

I put in the filter that must have started within 21 days and were not 1st up.
Works like a rocket some days but can be tardy on others. Long term, I wouldn't have a clue how it performs as I've never used it every week over a decent period of time. It certainly catches quite a few winners though.

[partypooper]

Just another angle that some may like to try. This can be done race to race or meeting to meeting. take first 5 in betting, bet $2 all up the two favs, + $1 all up the other 4 with the fav in the 2nd race. Now say the fav won, check what your expected return is should the 2nd one win eg. First fav won 6-4, next one is showing $4 so return is potentially $20 with $6 outlayed. so now decide taking the best possible prices from different bookies what to cover from 2nd to 5th fav. in 2nd race.

Now say the fav in the first race lost but you hit the winner in 5 , repeat, calculate the potential returns should the fav win in the 2nd race, and cover to profit or break even the other 4.

Now you will hit most doubles, but you have the added benefit of knowing what the potential return is B4 you make the bets on the 2nd race, and of being able to make your bets where you like or tote.

PS I've used $1 unit here for demonstration purposes only.

[Pauls123]

I just did a random check of your theory. The first two races at Lismore today.
The order of betting in the first race was $2.80, $3.80, $4.60, $8 and $10. Third fav won at around the $4.60 mark. (I am using IAS prices around the second last fluc). Race 2, order of betting $3.60, $4, $5, $5.50 and $7.

The fav won at around the $3.60 mark. That would give you a return of $16.60. For interest sake the returns on the second leg would have been around $16.60, $18.40, $23, $25.30 and $32.20.

So in this case you wouldnt quite get your $20 back if the first couple won.

Interesting, hmmm, shall think on this more

Paul

[peterpan]

There was $9 available on Cameo Queen.

[partypooper]

When I say the "first" race I mean the first race that you choose to bet on, not literally the first race of the day. The idea can work using race 1 to 2, race 2 to 3 etc or any 2 races, different meetings OR even different days.

[JoeF]

Party, I have been round this that often I'm giddy.
As you say, getting it into profit territory is the trick.
Am now just back to using it as an initial culling process.

Paul, I've been down the IAS opener track too, in fact before phones were allowed on course. I used to go to the track and ring a mate who was sitting at home on the computer and give him the course openers, we then backed whatever Read was holding under. Worked like a charm for about 3 months, then the wheels fell off that too. Sad but true.

Back to the drawing board (again)

[partypooper]

Yes I made it pay in the UK, but there was one massive difference. Bets there are written down and settled in the order that they are written. eg. $10 win "Fred" 4.40pm Newbury. $10 win My Oath 2.30pm Sandown. STOP AT A WINNER

Do you follow? so after the 2.30 race is run you KNOW what your fate is with "FRED" in the 4.30 race. so....... say My Oath wins you know you are set to win if FRED loses or WINS, so you can now cover several horses and in many cases the whole field in the 4.30 race, it was lovely!

Almost makes me wanna go back there........... nah maybe not!

[JoeF]

Sat 30/08/08

287 runners
152 qualifiers / 25 races / 22 winners.
Throw in the PPM's and we pick up another 2 winners (SR4 & MR8).

[Pauls123]

Hey Joe

(love that old song by Jimi Hendrix). What is the 287 runners, I am missing something here. And what are the PPM's to throw in.

And was there any profit on these 22 winners from 25 races..?

Hey Party, thanks for a bit of advice that you gave me earlier regarding a "loss cut off point". I've rerun all my bets (over a 7 month period on a spreadsheet), and put in a "cut off point when your losses hit a certain amount". And then cop that loss and start again. The end profit wasnt as high but my bank wasnt in as much jeopardy.

Paul

[JoeF]

Paul,
There were 287 runners in all races across the Eastern states, spread over 25 races, of which there were 152 horses on the first 5 lines of betting in Fri's Courier Mail.
Couldn't tell you if a profit was made on them, but I somehow doubt it.
I tend to use it as an initial filter for cutting down on form study time.
As you can see, it cuts out roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of the runners for a typical Sat. Which equates to a considerable saving of my very limited time.
The theory being that if they are any further down the order of the Pre Post market you wouldn't back them anyway.
It seems to throw up around the 80 odd % of winners, but narrowing it down futher than that is the trick (that I have not, as yet, mastered)
PPM is, really a question for Partypooper, as that is his baby.

[partypooper]

Paul, the PPM referred to is a free system that I posted here several years ago, (PPM stands for Partypoopers Plum Movers ) stress only for fun rules are:

SATURDAY METRO 5 STATES

Working up the TAB nos (i.e. No1 is last) take the first horse with a c or d next to it's name that's it.

There are several sub rules that have been added since but not implemented by all.

The other long shot system is working DOWN the TAB nos starting with No1 the bet is the first horse that finished 5th or worse last start BUT was within 3.5k'gs of the winner.

[JoeF]

Party, 3.5 Lengths perhaps?????????

[Mark]

Joe

Try chucking out those whose official opening price is longer than the price in the paper. No guarantees, and I haven't looked at this for a while but I think it will help.

[partypooper]

Party, 3.5 Lengths perhaps????????? Thanks JoeF yes Lengths not Kg'S, must be the amber again hahah!

[JoeF]

Mark,
Yes I shall give it a go, although I don't record any openers, I suppose the Sunday paper prices will suffice.
Will keep you informed.
Something I have noticed though, is that when there are 5 separate lines of fav's in the pre post market, the pre post fav seems to have a very good strike rate. Something to ponder on perhaps.

[Mark]

Hi Joe

Courier Mail Friday (apologies if the results are not exactly what you come up with, but they should be pretty close)

Bris/Melb
Backing first 5 lines = 14 wins from 96 bets, 14.6%
Leave out those that open longer than paper price = 11 wins from 54, 20.4%
Also leave out the lays I sent you Saturday = 10 wins from 36, 27.8%

[Mancunian]

Joe

Try chucking out those whose official opening price is longer than the price in the paper. No guarantees, and I haven't looked at this for a while but I think it will help.G'day Mark,
where do you get "official opening price" ?
the only source I know is the IAS left hand column Open price - which is OK but gets pretty close to race time particularly with country races.
Is there somewhere else I can check ?
cheers .....Mancunian

[Mark]

On the screens on track Mancunian. Or the next day in the papers.

[Mancunian]

On the screens on track Mancunian. Or the next day in the papers.Thanks Mark. Ultimately, after research, I will be needing the Opening price comparison with the morning price or whatever, before they race - so I'll have to settle with IAS (which I think is a pretty good guide anyway,) it just means I wouldn't be able to set the days bets say at midday and leave the computer until after the last which is my preferred modus operandi.
Cheers.....Mancunian

[Bhagwan]

Looking at the Racingandsorts pre post market for

Wed 10th Sep.
Sandown R4/13
Soft Cell $85.00 winner

Was 3rd Fav on its own line in the pre post market.

Amazing!

A process I find that works as well as anything else when it comes to pricing a market is to multiply the Pre Post price by 0.90 and use those figures to bet the overlays if they are in the top 4-6

Hits plenty of good prices\d winners on its day.

Cheers.

[Pauls123]

I didnt know that R&S have a pre post market...?. Where is this found

Regards
Paul

[place2win]

Pauls123

Enter 'racing' select 'FreeRacingStats' select meeting PP is at bottom of Race Field Layout

[Pauls123]

Thanks for that, how about that huh, never knew this was here. I assume this is a computer generated PP market,,.?

Paul

[place2win]

I believe so, but it is generally spot on, but on occassions can throw up a goody like soft sell to-day as baggy metioned

[JoeF]

Here is an attempt at trimming down the FFL to 3 selections per race.


B1- 1 2 9
B2- 1 3 9
B3- 2 4 7
B4- 2 5 10
B5- 1 3 6
B6- 3 4 9
B7- 1 6 7
B8- 4 5 14

S1- 1 5 9
S2- 4 7 9
S3- 1 5 11
S4- 1 5 13
S5- 4 8 10
S6- 1 9 12
S7- 4 5 7
S8- 1 5 8
S9- 4 7 14

M1- 2 7 10
M2- 1 5 11
M3- 8 9 11
M4- 7 8 14
M5- 1 7 8
M6- 2 9 12
M7- 2 4 15
M8- 2 10 14
M9- 1 4 13


Please be warned that "No form study was harmed in producing these selections."

[Bhagwan]

Check out this mad idea.

Only bet the horses with odd Nos. out of the FFL

This will halve the volumn of selections .

It will also hook the odd huge payer.

No bet if one ends up with 6 or more qualifying selections in the same race.

There have been some good payers that appear in the odd Nos. range.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Mad idea No.2

Out of the FFL

Target all that have an "R" any where in its name.

No bet if left with 6+ selections.

Its suprising how many get up.

Cheers.