Simple system

[baco60]

Simple system!
Bet every venue, bet first two tips as per Radio TAB.
Bet only first two races, in each venue.
Today was one of the good days check it out, and check past results.
Few filters here and there something to think about.


B

[crash]

First 2 tips per race or 1st tip only in the 1st and second race?

[partypooper]

Wow! 20 bets 9 winners, (one at 8-1) now that is good stuff! I'll be burning the midnight oil researching tonight!

[Shaun]

Very mixed results, on it's own i don't think it would work.

[partypooper]

Shucks, looked so good too! results so far (a few 1000 results) = 25% S/R what you would expect, and can you believe a 15% LOT , unitab prices, almost exactly the "Take" I'll keep going for a while but looks like the usual.........., but it was fun for a while!

[Shaun]

Just a few things to look at, track condition we are at a bad time in the year and a lot of slow and heavy tracks.

You could do a comparison with the radio Tab and the tipsters selection, you could also look at a double on the bothe races.

[partypooper]

The double comes up 140 times in 1200 attempts, i.e 2x2 and a much greater loss.

Shame but I think it's going nowhere!

[Bhagwan]

Hi Party,
You might like to try this approach & let us know what your findings are....
Seeing you have done all that work.

Betting 2 horses a race.
.Target the Radio TAB top 2 selections.
(Or any other reliable source)

.Target races 1-4 only.
These usually have a strong SR because they tend to have slightly smaller fields .

.Bet $3.00 on the shorter priced.
.Bet $2.00 on the longer priced.
This is = 60/40 split.

.Stop at each venue once a winner gets up.
Regardless of price or whether one is in profit or not.
e.g. 4 Venues targeting 4 winners at 1 winning result per venue.

.Try not to continue if one strikes an odds on winner , it usually doesn't get
much better after that.

.Dont continue if we have 4 outs in a row, over those 4 races, at that venue.

.Try & use Betfair for best prices because the TAB prices will be very ordinary when the Fav gets up.
Betfair is usually 20% better for the fav than the TABs so try & take that into account when one is dong any research using UniTAB for past results.

e.g.There was a TAB Fav in the first race today that paid $3.10
on Betfair it was $4.90

If one wishes to use a progressional. (Optional)
.Increase ones last bet by 15% until we break even again .
.Repeat bet if winner does not put us at break even .

Cheers.

[baco60]

First 2 tips per race or 1st tip only in the 1st and second race?

Hi Crash,
2 first tips in each race.
B

[baco60]

Few filters:
No bet On Monday & Tuesday.
If first selection is paying under $ 2,no bet,go to second & third selection.
Bhagwan come up with few good ideas as well.
There are few more filters to use.
B

[baco60]

My bets for 30/31/08/08
Using the simple system.

66 bets
19 wins

Starting bank $1000.00
Current bank $1203.00
Bank % 20.38

Bets $1484
Return $1687
Profit $ 203
Turn over %13.73

I tried to upload my sheet, couldn’t do it.
If anyone interested, I would gladly send it to you.
I am using multibets sheet. It calculates everything for me.
Am I happy? No, far too many bets. Betting two horses per race eats out big chunk
of money from my bank.
Solution? Well to find the system that picks one horse per race. Wishful thinking.
Any ideas? Working on it.
The simple system that I use has few more filters any one can figure it out by looking at the past results.

PS
Thanks Bhagwan, you are always positive, and sensible.

B

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for the kind feed back Baco.

You say there are too many bets , one may say that because value is not coming from the Fav when it gets up & that's a lot.

The weight of the bet has to be altered so there is a bit more on the shorter priced & less on the longer priced, to even things up a little.

You mention 19 from 66 bets, is irrelevant whether it is 1 or 10 horses for that race. It's the race SR that's important & POT.
But because you are betting 2 horses a race the true figure would be 19 wins from 33 races = 57.5% SR
Which is excellent.


It's the same if I Dutch bet the whole field of 17 horses to beat the odds on fav in a race. To make 30% profit.
I wouldn't then say I had 17 bets for 1 winner = 5.9% SR

Or when one lays the Fav to lose, one is in effect is betting say 17 other horses to beat him. Would you treat that as one bet or 17 bets.

You say Baco that you have Multi-bet .

You can set that up to reflect 60/40 split . (3+2 = 5)

Set the staking plan as if it is betting 5 horses a race.

3 + 2

If the longer one gets up , multiply the div by 2
If the shorter one gets up , multiply the div by 3.


By doing this it will increase your POT, because at the moment you are treating the longer price & the shorter priced of the 2 horses as having the same SR as one another which you have probably found , that when the Fav gets up , it hardly pays anything compared to the total bet outlay.
I feel you are betting with the TAB where you are guaranteed a low return on nearly all Favs.
So start betting with say IAS super price or Betfair.
You will get superior divs , especially for the lower priced horses.

Therefore the 60/40 split or in other words 3+2, will address that issue where more is on the shorter priced horses, which tend to get up more anyway.

Test it out on some past results & get back to us with your findings.
50 winning races should be enough.

Cheers.

[baco60]

Thanks for your input Bhagwan, much appreciated.
B