win bet percentage

[odericko]

last weeks bets from friday 22/8 up till today
out 32
in 63.9
this is at level stakes of 1 unit ...i know its early yet but i ran a what if at
5% never reducing per bet ...is this a wise level to bet at??
the numbers are overwhelming ...this cant last im sure ill post next weeks results and no doubt ill sink

[partypooper]

Can I have whatever you're having Od? hee hee!

[Shaun]

i would consider 5% very high unless it is a place system, try about 2% you will be able to handle the losing runs better.

[Bhagwan]

I would look at 0.50% of bank which is re-adjusted up or down at the beginning of each day.

This allows for 200 outs & gives one confidence to continue onwards with a degree of confidence , because one knows if its a bad day, the balance can be readjusted the following day to 200th of the remaining bank..

I have found that no matter how strong a system may be , they nearly all hit 20+ outs in a row & that's not to say one hits a few small priced winners , followed by yet another 20 outs in a row..

It might take 3 months , it might take 3 years, but the Stats will not be denied.

You have not stated what your win percentage SR is
This is the expected run of outs approximations...
If SR is 20%---31 expected run of outs in a row.
25% ---------24
30% ---------20
35% ---------16



Cheers.

[odericko]

ok bets were
x x
5.10 2.00
4.40 2.00
- 1.70
3.30 1.40
- 1.60
3.10 1.40
- 1.70
1.80 1.20
- 2.00
x x
x x
5.00 2.40
x x
3.40 1.60
4.40 1.90
3.00 1.40
x x
x x
2.90 1.70
3.10 1.50
4.60 1.60
3.30 1.50
2.10 1.20
2.30 1.30
3.50 1.40
x 2.00
x x
3.80 1.90
x x
4.80 2.20
x 1.40
and todays horrid result
x x
2.20 1.30
x x
x x
2.80 1.60
x 1.40

[Bhagwan]

I notice the price range appears around the first 2 favs .
There's nothing wrong with that.
One should hit a solid SR as you have shown.

But what one will find is that it will perform well over the coming days or weeks, then there will be small runs of outs then one day even longer runs of outs.

The trick is knowing when to stop & wait for a little winner to appear before recommencing.

Racing you find , runs in patterns similar the the stock exchange.
Some patterns that change can appear erratic , but thats normal, just like the stock exchange, so be prepared for it when it happens.
Its not a hot & cold running tap that at times it may behave like one , then change very quickly , so apply a stop loss by stopping then wait for signals to start again.

I usually stop after 9 outs in a row before recommencing after a winner.
It may not be perfect but its better than blundering forward with no brakes I feel.

Stick to what you are doing .


Here is another money management plan to look at.

Duel bank method.
This is used to help control the funds of the bank, its not a staking plan.

.Split bank into 2 halves.
.This is made up of a working bank & a reserve bank.

.Whenever or working bank makes any profit at the end of the day or week or month.
Put half on the profit into the reserve bank so that it appears as 50/50 for both banks.

If the working bank should get halved.
Stick the remaining half into the reserve bank.
Then split this in half & half again so it looks like 50/50 again.

It is very hard for a punter to entertain the thought of a reserve bank sitting out there with money in it which could be used for a "puntin".

But if one can get their head around the basic idea , one will show that it frees up a punters brain to think more clearly because of the subconscious feeling of a reserve fund sitting out there & not all is lost if we have a poor run which just happens in punting sometimes. , before coming good again.

Cheers.

[odericko]

i thought your prediction came true yesterday baggy old boy but last3 selections saved my scrawny ass
out 16 in 21.50
today out 11 in 14.5
surprising amount of selections but the oracle dosent lie
iam now convinced

[odericko]

as a matter of interest last 3 races at kalg,
r5. 6 8 9
r6 3 6 13
r7 9 13 14

[odericko]

as a matter of interest last 3 races at kalg,
r5. 6 8 9
r6 3 6 13
r7 9 13 14
ps.go forth and prosper

[odericko]

well the wheels havnt fallen off yet ,,,
im nearly tempted to sober up lol
anyway results since last sunday and including today
out 46 clear profit 15.10
file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/COMPAQ%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg

[odericko]

the wheels are definately wobbling now a huge loss today of3.20
yesterday was a loss of 2.9
im still confident though because those were win only
its strange but although i lost on the win the place nearly broke even
anyhoo up till wed. 10/9
out 134 ...profit 56.20

[odericko]

omg it even works on the pommy races yeeha

[odericko]

AND CAN U BELIEVE IT ITS DRUNKARD PROOF

[odericko]

am i aaaaed of course am i really aaaaed off yhes

[odericko]

and what would he know ...hmmm probably nothing because the idiot is passed out on the couch