Simple data wanted

[partypooper]

Can anyone help with this please: (a) % 0f winners that win next start? (b) number of horses that win 5 in a row (this time in) numerically i.e. actual number in a season?

Help greatly appreciated.

[gort]

1/1/6 to 31/7/8

a) 41,000 runners for 6,273 winners
b) 350 runners for 93 winners, spells not considered.

[Michal]

Last Start winner :

From 10,457 races there were 3110 races that were won by a horse that has won last start. this is 29.7% Race strike rate.

There were 20,497 actuall selections which indicates that you are betting around 1.9 selections per race. This made a loss of $3459 if one places a $1 on each selection. The average win Div was $5.48 based on NSW tab.



Winners that won 4 in a row this preparation and have gone to win the next race :

In 21 months there were 93 bets that is about 1 a week. From these there were 18 winners for a 19% strike rate.
It did make a profit though 3% on turnover. or $2.4 if a $1 was placed on every selection.

I ran just 4 winners in a row just to see .......
29.3% strike rate pot -4.1% from 144 selections and 41 winners.

Michal

PS I only ran 1/1/07 to current as an indicator

[Pauls123]

I am impressed. What sort of program do you use to obtain all this information and what are the costs. I am curious here,


Regards
Paul

[partypooper]

just spotted the reply guys, thanks heaps will get back to it tomorrow!

[Michal]

Hi Paul,

Unfortunately I cant tell you because it is offence to mention other software, private messaging has been disabeled, and to post email adress is an offence also LOL.

The owners of this forum are advertising a database product themselves so you could start there. The one I have will cost about $1300 and for extra $480 odd you will get the next 2 years worth of form and 4 years backwards to download. That is the absolute cheepest option that I know off

There are others simmilar and the prices range from $2000 to $6000 that I know off. There are other consideration like the ongoing form cost which is much higher. Most of the programs also generate ratings and allow you to create systems that you can then run against todays form so as well as hystorical data you can use it to find those selections from todays races.

As with anything by themselves these programs will not make a profit on all races all the time but with a little mining you can find profit from isolating the edge. I have extracted my own data from the program and I use excel to interogate it any way I please, that is the next step in finding the edge.

Sorry I cant be of any more help

Michal

[partypooper]

Gort/Michal, thanks for that very informative. I asked the question to try and anylise an old sytem from the UK. That is to take all duel winners and back em with a 1 unit TREBLE next 3 races , obviously trying to collect on the ones that win 5 in a row. Some of the SP's are amazing considering but I doubt that it can show a profit based on what you have come up with.

Taking Michal figures, I take it that there would be only 18 trebles successful from 3000+ bets?

Taking Gorts figures it looks like 6283 bets for 93 successful trebles ? now that's better but still not better enough i.e. we'd need to draw an ave. of $68 from each winning treble just to break even, ($1 stake) which would need an ave SP of a little over 3-1 (i.e. $4x$4x$4) mmmmmm possible I suppose, but.....

I gues it's another MYTH EXPLODED

But thanks anyway much appreciated!

[Michal]

Party,


Not quite. The 18 winners were from horses that have gone on and won 5 in a row in ONE preparation. That is what I thought you meant when you wrote (this time in).

With out the spell stop the figgures appear similar to Grot. I suppose the problem with a system like that is the wait, especially for the spells to be over and the horse to resume. Obviously you dont know what the intention of the trainer is and when the horse is likely to be spelled .In a situation wher the horse was a 4 times winner over staying distance then the next race ; being a sprint as part of his preparation wouldnt be a good bet. Also one has to make sure one would not sneeze and blink lest you miss one of these gems.

Interesting idea however. Definitely one for the dedicated full time punter.

Michal

[partypooper]

Michal, oh yes I see. Well, that's my fault in terminology, being an aa Pom, in the UK we have seasons, i.e. Flat racing for a bit over half the year and Jumps for the other half but overlapping a bit both ends. So I see that I used "this time in" in the wrong context here where you are talking about THIS PREP.

Yes it certainly takes patience with this plan, but I now have heaps of that in my old age. Tenacity is needed as you are betting race to race of course so you may have an on-going bet where you have drawn on 2 winners maybe 100 units so it's in your pocket, then the nag runs again you have to have the guts to let it ride again in order to hit the jackpots!

Anyway, thanks again for your interest and work done.