Fitness - The Key To Winning

[Bhagwan]

Some stats I have been going over .

2500 races sampled.

50% of all winners in all distances came from 10-17 days last start.

1000-1100m
Resumers & 10-24 days = 83% of all winners.
Highly suspect - Any horse that has had 3 runs in 31 days.


1200m
Resumers & 10-24 days = 73% Winners.
Highly suspect - Any horse that has had 3 runs in 31 days.


1300-1400m
10-17 days = 54% winners
All other fitness patterns suspect.

1500-1600m
10-17 days = 54% winners
All other fitness patterns suspect.

1800 - 2000m
1-17 days = 86% winners
Highly suspect- any horse that hasn't run for 18+ days.

2000-3200m
1-17 days = 92% winners.
Highly suspect- Any horse that hasn't had a run for 18+ days.

If one develops the patience & discipline to wait for only the better betting propositions regarding fitness, one will have the percentages on their side.

One amazing stat was runners in backing up in 7 days had a terrible SR in races 1000-1200m which appears to be a myth buster regarding form.

NB. Quality experienced jockeys appear to really come to the fore in races 1800-3200m where tactics are very important.

Cheers.

[Ricardo48]

Some very interesting Stats there Bhagwan, cheers for that.

[Chuck]

Have you read any of Barry Blakemore's work on fitness patterns?

[crash]

3rd., 4th., or 5th up would be about peek fitness for most horses except those under trainers well known for preparing forwardly fit horses 1st or 2nd up.

I've never liked horses that have backed up after 7 days, especially if their last run was on a wet track. It takes the stuffing out of them. 10 to 21 days seems a good rest period without losing fitness. 4 to 5yr. olds seem to do most of the winning and I think about $5.60 or less SP account's for most of the winners.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Chuck,
I have read a few different ones on the subject, he could have been one of them from ages ago .

I tend to take notes of certain subjects , then research them later.
I was going over my notes & thought this subject could be worth airing.
These stats probable reinforce what a number of punters probable already know. I feel it could be good to bring the subject up again seeing that there seems to be a trend lately towards the idea of trying to win without form.
Not that I am against the general idea , its just good to have a perspective for both sides of approaches.

Cheers.

[DR RON]

Bhagwan, interesting figures you supplied, would you be able to supply the percentage of horses in each of those catergories as well so we could get an idea of how much of an advantage or disadvantage there is. For example

1500-1600

10-17 days 54% winners

what percentage of horses were in the 10-17 days ? if it was 54% then I would say there was neither advantage or disadvantage, however if it was say 40% or less then that could be considered a definite advantage. Hope you understand what I'm getting at.

[crash]

That would go for all the distances. Lets face it most horses in the 10 to 17 days range covers a large % of the fields and Resumers at 10-24 days over 1200m covers most of the runners at the distance too. Knowing those stats. wouldn't seem to present much advantage. 'The sky is blue' maybe [?]

[Bhagwan]

1000-1100m
124 wins /150 races
83%

1200m
438/600
73%

1300-1400m
279/500
56%

1500-1600m
323/600
54%

1800-20000m
302/350
86%

2100-3200m
276/300
92%

The idea is not to find an advantage or disadvantage .
The idea is to find a situation where one says that this horse should not win based on benchmark stats.

There will always be anomalies in any given race.
Like horses getting bumped & falling over
There will be the odd trainer which pulls something left field of what the stats say should not happen, but these sitiuations would not be more than 1-2%
The mear fact a 50/1 shot is present in a race does not mean they dont have a chance.
The idea is to see if ones selection is inside the stat figure.
If it is not, then the selection may not be a strong as it could be .

For instance , if one targeted Favs to win . The SR should improve to
35-40% SR If one feels that there wont be any advantage , start laying them & see how much money one will lose.

[Chrome Prince]

3rd., 4th., or 5th up would be about peek fitness for most horses except those under trainers well known for preparing forwardly fit horses 1st or 2nd up.

I've never liked horses that have backed up after 7 days, especially if their last run was on a wet track. It takes the stuffing out of them. 10 to 21 days seems a good rest period without losing fitness. 4 to 5yr. olds seem to do most of the winning and I think about $5.60 or less SP account's for most of the winners.

Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.

I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.

If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.

If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.

For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.

Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.

Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded.

[Top Rank]

A couple of general things stand out for me.
Bhagwan has done his own research, best thing ever. Lots of people say have read this author or that author, and I have. Do your own research, I could name a well known author of racing books, that you would all know who has produced plenty of stats on what wins.
I did my own research on the same factors and came up with a different result. Thankfully for me it now forms the basis for a successful income from racehorse investment.
The other is Chrome Prince has found what pays and what does'nt, all the stats don't make you money, more research again is required to find out what makes money and to be honest that is what matters.
It takes time and perserverance to continually update your records, of all types and plenty of times you will come up with nothing but if your lucky you will find something that pays.

Good Punting

[crash]

Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.

I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.

If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.

If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.

For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.

Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.

Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded.

Nothing wrong with disagreeing or presenting a different point of view Chrome. My point of view was [obviously] not based on stats. but a part of my approach to form study regarding 'horse fitness' that was relevant to this thread and works for me. I don't feel 'corrected' at all, so no need to apologize.

You can run data about variables 100's of different ways that will [on paper] come with winning percentages. Winning stats. based on past SP favorites don't work in the real world because it's just not possible to always pick and back the SP favorite correctly.

[Chrome Prince]

2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT

[Bhagwan]

Interesting stats there Chrom.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

They are indeed Bhagwan.H,mm.
Well worth looking into further.

Cheers.
darky.

[Stix]

2nd favourites
Slow
7 days
Winner

69.33% Win POT
8.33% Place POT4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%

[Stix]

4yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 24%
POT 10%

5yo
Last start winner
<8 days

S/R 19%
POT 12%4 or 5yo
last start winner
<8 days
<$10

S/R 29%
POT 11.5%

[Stix]

These stats must have everyone busy developing their own angle.......he he he.....gone quiet!

[Chrome Prince]

Stix, these are tote figures of course - imagine taking Betfair SP :D

[darkydog2002]

Hey STIX,
I for one am and thank you both for putting it on the forum.

SLOW /HEAVY ONLY

WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS

AGE = 4 or 5 YO

FAV or 2nd FAV

Ah .Now for some forward testing eh.

Cheers.
darky

ps.How about ???

SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS

ON PACE RUNNER

SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE.

[crash]

Add to any of the above systems: Must have won next start.

[darkydog2002]

Ho Ho.

Might also have to check the horses Biorythms on the day too.

Not forgetting the Tarot cards to see whether it will be a successful day.

Seriously though .If I come up with any selections I will post them.

Cheers.
darky

[Stix]

Add to any of the above systems: Must have won next start.....at >$10 and has top fluc of $12+......instant millionaires...... moo-hoo-harr-harr !!...love to borrow some money for this but the markets are in melt down and I'm not getting as many pre-approved credit card applications in the mail as I used to... :o .....ah what's this.... "Letter from the Minister of Finance, Nigeria"...hmmm this looks promising.... gotta go...good luck !

[darkydog2002]

Stix.

Wait till you get the one from the wrongly charged female prisoner who is seeking some kind soul to help her with her bail money,
Would bring a tear to a glass eye.

darky.

[Stix]

SLOW /HEAVY ONLY (this start)
WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS
AGE = 4 or 5 YO
FAV or 2nd FAV

All for slow as only a few on heavy......
Favs
Sel 39
Wins 15 38.5%
Proift 5
POT 12%

2nd Favs
Sel 26
Wins 2 7.7%
Proift -14
POT -53%


SAME CLASS OR DROP IN CLASS (Based on Prizemoney so =< $$ prizemoney $ of last race)
Favs
Sel 17
Wins 6 35.3%
Proift -3
POT -16.5%

2nd Favs
Sel 13
Wins 2 15.38%
Proift -1
POT -5%

ON PACE RUNNER

SENIOR RIDER TO 1.5 KG APPRENTICE No App
Favs
Sel 15
Wins 5 33.3%
Proift -3
POT -19%

2nd Favs
Sel 16
Wins 6 37.5%
Proift 2
POT 15%


So new rules are
SLOW /HEAVY ONLY (this start)
WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS
AGE = 4 or 5 YO
FAV
UP IN $$$
APP

Sel 10
Wins 6 60%
Proift 9.7
POT 97.0%

ALL TRACK CONDITIONS
WON LAST START WITHIN 7 DAYS
AGE = 4 or 5 YO
FAV
UP IN $$$
APP

Sel 38
Wins 17 44.74% Plc 30 78.95%
Proift 12.0 7.5
POT 31.58% 19.84%

.....................now rain ya b-u-g-g-e-r !!!!

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Stix.

Cheers.
darky.