Top 3 Plan.

[Bhagwan]

Rules.
Target races with 9-13 runners only.

Target the first 5 names in Pre post market.

.Must be in top 5 in Win percentage rankings.

.Must also be in top 5 in Place percentage rankings.

If left 3 or less selections bet them all.

cheers.

[Pauls123]

Hey Bhagwan,

Sounds interesting, have you any stats on this..?

Paul

[Bhagwan]

It seems to work best on any Handicap race where longer priced horses tend to get up.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

It seems to work best on any Handicap race where longer priced horses tend to get up.

Hi Bhagwan, I did a brief test on this (on paper) on Tuesday Races.
I left out Maiden races and only went on the others that had 9-13 starters.
The result i got wasn't brilliant Out $24 for Return of only $4.90 (2 winners from 9 races) BUT I did a comparison on the same races using top 5 API (suggested by LuckyBoy in another post), which gave a return of $22 from an outlay of $31. Not remarkable, people may say but if we had dutched them on an outlay of $10 per race the result was out $100 return $107. Still not a big deal but this was 4 winners paying $11.10/$2.10/$5.90/2.80 and there were quite a few bets on horses showing over $13.00 at the time.
(After looking back at the races 4 of them had 4 qualifiers so under the top 3 rule they would not have been eligible. Of those 4 races there was only the $2.10 winner therefore the real picture is much better.
i.e using the API for the TOP 3 the outlay would've been $19 and return $19.90 and dutching woul have been outlay $60 return $94.40).
Sorry about that confusion

I was "Dutching" probably a couple of hours before the jump, so a potential max price limit would help.
Certainly needs a bit more attention.

Too much on this weekend to have much of a go myself, but when I can I'll try out on slightly adjusted rules :

Handicap Races but not maidens.
9-13 starters after scratchings.
First 5 in the prepost market taken from R & S.
First 5 in API (Ave Prizemoney Index).
If 3 or less qualifiers in a race, back them for a win or Dutch them.

Thanks again Bhagwan for pointing us in the right direction

Regards......Mancunian

[Bhagwan]

Thanks M for your valuable input & kind words.

Those figures look impressive.

Dutching does improve the figures where the winners are shorter priced which makes up the majority of winners , but if its a day where the odd $15.00 & $20 winners decide to get up, betting the same amount will obviously produce a greater return.

I guess its a question of wheather its a day for the 2 favs getting up or a day for the longer priced horses that get up.

I have always been amazed at some of the excellent prices that get up in Hcp events, therefore well worth targeting.

I use Betfair where the prices are often double to that show on the TAB once they get over $10 as shown on the TAB.
For instance Townsville R4/6 Thur 25th Simones Got Class paid $16.70 UniTAB
it was 3rd Fav in R & S pre post, but it was up to 10 pts better on Betfair.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

Handicap Races but not maidens.
9-13 starters after scratchings.
First 5 in the prepost market taken from R & S.
First 5 in API (Ave Prizemoney Index).
If 3 or less qualifiers in a race, back them for a win or Dutch them.
Selections for todays Races :
Randwick
Race 4 - 2/6/9
Race 5 - 3/5/10
Race 7 - 1/5/10
Kyneton
Race 6 - 1/2/3
Race 8 - 1/2/3

May revisit Kyneton Races 7 and 9 to get prices closer to jump time as they both have 4 qualifiers but 1 in each race may get eliminated if outside the price range.

Cheers.....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

Selections for todays Races :
Randwick
Race 4 - 2/6/9
Race 5 - 3/5/10
Race 7 - 1/5/10
Kyneton
Race 6 - 1/2/3
Race 8 - 1/2/3
No good today
on win bets it would've been out $15 return $2.40.
dutching outlay (at $10 per race) $50 for a return of ($12.40).

Will check a bit further for a while

cheers...Mancunian

[Mancunian]

A few selections for today:

Ipsw
R7 - 2/5
R9 - 1/3/10
Geel
R5 - 2/4/6
R7 - 1/9
Wyong
R7 - 1/2/4
R8 - 1/3/5
Belm
R4 - 6/8

May check Belm Races 5, 7, 8 later to look for possible eliminations - too many qualifiers at this stage.

Cheers.....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

A few selections for today:

Ipsw
R7 - 2/5
R9 - 1/3/10
Geel
R5 - 2/4/6
R7 - 1/9
Wyong
R7 - 1/2/4
R8 - 1/3/5
Belm
R4 - 6/8

Cheers.....MancunianResults
7 Races 4 winners
For Win Bet - Outlay $18 return $22.10 Vic TAB.
Dutching @ $10 per race - Outlay $70 return $56.50.

Note : one left out because div showing $19.10 when I checked some 2 hours before the race was Ipsw Race 7 #1 which won and paid $13.00 !

Anyway aside from that there are some promising signs and I feel worth pursuing a bit further.

Cheers.....Mancunian.

[Mancunian]

Top 3 sels Fri 03 Oct

MRY R5 - 2/3/5
MRY R7 - 2/8
ROK R6 - 1/6/8
ROK R7 - 2/3/5
TAM R8 - 4/5/8
WMB R8 - 1/3

cheers.....Manc

[Mancunian]

Top 3 sels Fri 03 Oct

MRY R5 - 2/3/5
MRY R7 - 2/8
ROK R6 - 1/6/8
ROK R7 - 2/3/5
TAM R8 - 4/5/8
WMB R8 - 1/3

cheers.....MancResult (using simple Vic TAB divis)
for win bets - outlay $18 for a return of $19
dutching @ $10 per race - outlay $60 return $75.80.

golf tomorrow morning - see how I go doing some early races tonight before scratchings etc.

cheers ......Manc

[Mancunian]

Top 3 Plan sels - Mon 6 Oct

B'dale :
R6 - 2/3/4
R7 - 1/3/5
Ballina
R6 - 1/7
R7 - 1/4
R10 - 7/9
Morph :
R5 - 1/2/6
R6 - 3/7
W.Farm :
R3 - 4/6/9
R8 - 1/2/4

cheers...Manc

[Bhagwan]

Heres another angle.

Target the first 3 horses one comes to starting at the 3rd line of favortism in the pre post market.

Bet all 3 horses.

There could be 2-5 horses making up the 1st & 2nd fav line of betting.
We ignore all theses.

Start at the 3rd line of betting for our 3 horses.

Some good payers can be struck with this idea.

[Mancunian]

Top 3 Plan sels - Mon 6 Oct

B'dale :
R6 - 2/3/4
R7 - 1/3/5
Ballina
R6 - 1/7
R7 - 1/4
R10 - 7/9
Morph :
R5 - 1/2/6
R6 - 3/7
W.Farm :
R3 - 4/6/9
R8 - 1/2/4
Results- 9 races for 3 winners
Win bets outlay $23, return $19
Dutching outlay $90, return $72.10.

Poor day but not disastrous.
will post weekend results and review of what has happened so far, shortly.

Cheers ...Mancunian

[Mancunian]

Geelong:
R6-9
R7-4/7/8
R8-2/10/12
Kembla:
R4-4/6/9
R5-9
R6-2/4/9
R8-5
TSV:
R3-2/9/10
R6-1/4
R7-2/3/4
R8-1/8

Cheers....Manc

[Mancunian]

Heres another angle.

Target the first 3 horses one comes to starting at the 3rd line of favortism in the pre post market.

Bet all 3 horses.

There could be 2-5 horses making up the 1st & 2nd fav line of betting.
We ignore all theses.

Start at the 3rd line of betting for our 3 horses.

Some good payers can be struck with this idea.Hi Bhagwan,
Thought I'd give this a shot (on paper) while I was looking at the Top 3.
I've just used the same races i.e. fields of 9-13 and not maiden races.
From the prepost market I've left out the first 2 lines then taken the next 3 horses. Todays selections :
Geelong:
r6-9/11/12
r7-2/6/8
r8-6/7/12
Kembla:
r4-4/6/9
r5-1/3/11
r6-8/9/11
r8-4/5/7
TSV:
r3-4/6/10
r6-2/8/9
r7-4/5/11
r8-2/6/8
See how they go....Cheers...Mancunian

[Mancunian]

Sat 04 Oct.
Only looked at Metro races -
there were 16 races for 11 winners
win bets - outlay $41 for a return of $36.60.
Dutching - outlay $160 for return of $184.20.

too many short priced favs. on the day - will consider either leaving short favourites out OR omitting those races.

Sun 05 Oct.
All Aust meetings -
there were 11 races for 8 winners
win bets - outlay $31 for a return of $35.40
Dutching - outlay $110 for return of $116.

Cheers......Manc

[Mancunian]

Geelong:
R6-9
R7-4/7/8
R8-2/10/12
Kembla:
R4-4/6/9
R5-9
R6-2/4/9
R8-5
TSV:
R3-2/9/10
R6-1/4
R7-2/3/4
R8-1/8

Cheers....MancResults: 11 races 7 winners.
win bets - outlay $25 for a return of $31.30
Dutching - outlay $110 for return $129.90

Cheers...... manc

[Mancunian]

Hi Bhagwan,
Thought I'd give this a shot (on paper) while I was looking at the Top 3.
I've just used the same races i.e. fields of 9-13 and not maiden races.
From the prepost market I've left out the first 2 lines then taken the next 3 horses. Todays selections :
Geelong:
r6-9/11/12
r7-2/6/8
r8-6/7/12
Kembla:
r4-4/6/9
r5-1/3/11
r6-8/9/11
r8-4/5/7
TSV:
r3-4/6/10
r6-2/8/9
r7-4/5/11
r8-2/6/8
See how they go....Cheers...MancunianResult 11 races for 4 winners
$11.30/$9.10/$5.90/$5.60 (Supertab)
Outlay $33 return $31.90 for straight $1 win bets.

Cheers.....Manc

[Bhagwan]

Not bad M. considering that there is no form study.

Much better prices would have been had using Betfair.
Min 20% better.
Some were double the price of SuperTAB.

It would be interesting to see if there is a differemce to be had if one stopped at each venue where a winner was struck.

Thanks for all your input M.
It makes for very interesting ongoing stats.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

Strath
r6-5/6/9
Dmb
r7-5/10
r8-1/5/6
Cant
r7-3
Bath
r6-3/8
r7-4/9/10
Belm
r3-1/9
r5-4/6/8
r7-2/4
r8-2

Cheers....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

Strath
r6-5/6/9
Dmb
r7-5/10
r8-1/5/6
Cant
r7-3
Bath
r6-3/8
r7-4/9/10
Belm
r3-1/9
r5-4/6/8
r7-2/4
r8-2
Bit of a disaster on Wed.
only 2 winners from 10 races
outlay $22 for a return of $9.80
Dutching outlay $100 return $24.40

Thu results 5 races for 3 winners
outlay $14 return $12.90
Dutching out $50 return $44.50.

Cheers...Mancunian

[Mancunian]

PMQ:
r3-1/7/8
r4-2/6/8
r6-6/10
r7-2/4/5
r8-11
S'Cst:
r3-2/3/4
r6-1/4/9
r7-1/3/5
WGA:
r5-4/5/7
r6-3/7
r8-1/4
Wang:
r7-10/11/14
r8-1/6/7
r9-2/5
MV:
r2-2/3/8
r5-2/9/11
r7-1/2
r8-1/5/7
Cheers.....Mancunian

[Mancunian]

PMQ:
r3-1/7/8
r4-2/6/8
r6-6/10
r7-2/4/5
r8-11
S'Cst:
r3-2/3/4
r6-1/4/9
r7-1/3/5
WGA:
r5-4/5/7
r6-3/7
r8-1/4
Wang:
r7-10/11/14
r8-1/6/7
r9-2/5
MV:
r2-2/3/8
r5-2/9/11
r7-1/2
r8-1/5/7
Another poor day outlay $47 return $26.30 on win bets
Dutching was out $178 for a return of $134.50.

A couple of observations tho'

there were 3 winners that I were in original 4 qualifiers but left out due to being over the max allowable estimated dividend of $13.00.
their Starting prices were $12.80/$7.30/$15.60.
There were 4 races at MV for 11 qualifiers and only 1 winner at $2.30.
There has been some encoraging signs over the couple of weeks - enough to warrant a bit of effort in trying to refine it a bit, but I'm going to be out of action for a few days (away from the computer that is) so I'll just do a bit of review of the results so far.

Cheers for now.......Mancunian