Help to improve profit

[scottsbluff]

Hello all,

just asking for advise to improve profit, this is what l do.

I use free ratings & adjust things for my way only for gallops (are looking at the dogs), race to race & look for overs at selections that l believe have a chance.

Figures since the 1/3/08 - 21/9/08 are as follows:

829 bets for 274 wins ($3.30 - $28.00)
Outlay $74,610.00 - Profit $20,713.50

All my bets are $90.00 this would be $30.00 the win $60.00 the place or two horses at $45.00 for the win each or three at $30.00 each.

I only look at the best three if l can secure overs on them l will back three, or if only secure two l will back two, or if only one $30 the win $60.00 the place.

I have not had a losing month but l have had three losing weeks the most $1K, l only bet sat & sun from 1pm to the finish of the races about 10 hrs per weekend.
Looking to up my bets to maybe a % of bank so any help on ideas will be of great assistance,

thanks Scottsbluff

[crash]

After seeing your figures, I'd like to ask what can you do to improve my profits?

[scottsbluff]

Thanks Crash,

The first two months l only backed E/W then seen a pattern of horses winning at big odds so decide to extend out to the above. I have had winners out to $45.00 but have not placed bets l what to see over 12 months how many pop up as l feel if l go for broke l will get burnt. I am a great believer of statictics in racing and these horses do not come home consitantly so l have capped it at $30.00 cut off.
All the ones l back for the win/place have to be paying better than $1.60 for the place so l am making profit if they get home.

With this approach l am betting only with the TAB & trying to secure the best odds as l have accounts with the major three, l feel l may be able to increase profits with other souces if anyone can point me in the right direction with ideas would be good.

l have only been into racing for 9 years the first three was research & documenting dry bets to find which way l should be heading so l think it is time to look into how to obtain the best odds.


again thanks,

Scottsbluff

[Michal]

From your method I guess that most days you would have 2-5 bets, since you cap the prices does that mean you are there for those bets or do you use prepost markets to determine the bets?


This has substantial impact on your punt. I know people that break even using one tote and a great profit using several resources. Open befair account, and several of the major bookmakers. If you have to bet and go away use the best TOTE providers to place your bet. USing TAB is always risky because you dont know where the best price is, spreading the bets across all 3 is only going to get you an average, bets tote will get you the best price (there are limits). If you are woried that they will close you when you become sucessfull deal with it when it happens. Look out for the NSW TAB corporate site they should be quite compatitive. Chosing the best odds is a best way of winning atleast 10% extra for no additional risk.

Betting each way is a safe way to not get anywhere. In my opinion. BUT Test it yourself for your situation. Go through all your bets and bet win only the same amount as each way. I almost guarantte you you will win more. I went through a period when I did this and I was very happy to receive place wins of $13 or more and was way infront of the win bets ..... untill I got a few winners in a row ...... all of a sudden I was way behind and still would be ...... the problem is the mind set, if you need a consistant high strike rate then stick with it and build your confidance.

Michal

[Shaun]

Scottsbluff,

What are the free ratings you use if you don't mind saying.

[scottsbluff]

Hello Michal,

thanks for reply, as stated in the figures below l only bet Sat & Sun from 1pm to end of gallops racing so l average approx 25 - 35 bets per weekend, l am betting on the day as races present themself, from march 08 l have been investing on this prior to that l have 3mths research before real money was put into play & the figures have remaind stable.
I go from race to race & look for overs on the rated price, all bets are $90, l will look into doing some research on other avenues with Betfair etc.

I have become very selective before placing bets as l may go 7-10 races where there is no value as the good thing these days there are large amounts of races to choose from.

Man these sites are great as you can pick up alot of info that helps,

many thanks,

scottsbluff

[crash]

Which ratings do you use?

[scottsbluff]

Shaun, Crash,

sorry guys not prepared to give source away yet as the money l am winning last few years has ben paying morgage off. What l can say is that all l have done is look at all sites that give free rating and documented this to find one that is profitable but may not be to other uses as l do have other twists that l put in that l have used over the last 4-5 yrs of actual money investment. I look at the class rise or drop, distance, fitness patterns of last 3-4 runs & a couple of other things so l do miss some bets if l have not gone through this regime.

Yesterday not good but not bad ether, figures as follows:

18 bets - $1,620 Return $1,428 -Loss $192.00 5 winners only but all over $5.50

The pattern for saturday is up & down as we come into the better part of the season there are more class horses in the city & therefore ratings prices are higher & horses rated closer together because of the class of the field, so may not be able to sucure overs. (l will not bet on a horse if it is a selection (rating) if l feel it has not a chance, some win some dont & l beleave any selection process has to have your own imput as well or it will not work longterm.
A large amounts of my bets are in lesser class races as you can secure better prices & there are more stand outs with class on there side but there form does not read that so you must look at why are they racing in these lesser races but for some reason the general public shy away from these animals.

I have a horse that l am part owner no world beater but a bit off fun, it is called Remember When at Swanhill Race 7 today. If it gets a clear run it should be in the money (hey how many times have you heard that??)

Anyway good punting today & again thanks for all your help for ideas on this forum,

scottsbluff

[Shaun]

Not a problem, i am a ratings type of person and have spent a lot of time creating my own ratings and i spend a lot doing the ratings each day.

With all the information out there these days i realy think 90% of form has been done for us and if we take the information provided from different providers we can come up with selections.

[scottsbluff]

Spot on Shaun l use to spead hrs doing form for "Sportsman" (6-9hrs) for saturday only. I now use ratings but include the pricibles that l learnt with the above information. It has taken me quite a while to come to terms with the computer as a tool but man when you get your head around it makes things so easy.

The weekend ended up okay bit up & down,
SAT.
18 bets - $1,620 Return $1,428 -Loss $192.00 5 winners only but all over $5.50

SUN.
15 bets - $1,350 Return $2,457 - Profit $1.107 5 winners only again $4.2 - $20.10

As for my nag that l gave today (did have a wide run) is still running,

good punting,

scottsbluff

[Usurper]

18 bets - $1,620 Return $1,428 -Loss $192.00 5 winners only but all over $5.50

This just seems to re-enforce what was said earlier - you may as well bet win-only, your end of year results will be better. You made a loss this day, doing e/w, but straight up > 5x$5.00 = $25 over 18 bets. At level stakes that's a tidy profit % wise.

Just my 2c, I don't post on these forums much.

[scottsbluff]

Thanks Usurper, l will put my spreadsheet in for september so it will show clearly what l do. Down the bottom l have highlighted how l invest 3 for win, 2 for win or 30/60 E/w.

I can see what you mean it may be the way to go & try to back 3 per race l will have to do some research but will do that on the side as the results seem to be the same every month but l agree it may inprove my profit as the outlay wont change.

Hope my excell sheet makes sense as only new to computer stuff, l may be off line for a couple of days as moving into new house today so no betting next weekend as sky will not be hooked up but internet should be back within two days.


Would appreciate if anyone can give some suggestions on better way to invest on this horses to increase profit.

thanks scottsbluff

[Usurper]

If you had done win bets only, using the same $ outlayed, you would have made a profit $17,773 instead of $3,691.

I find it hard to believe someone who's been doing this for 9 years wouldn't have seen this, if this is a typical month of your returns.

[crash]

Anytime is a bad time to to bet for the place with the TAB. The odds for the place are often 25% or even less than the win odds with no real way of knowing the odds your taking until after the jump.
If a selection finishes unplaced on a 1Wx2P bet, the place outlay is money down the drain that could have been used for two win bets. If the selection places it's a poor value return and if it places with a winning run [as often happens], it's an extremely poor return on outlay.

Specialized place betting and looking for value on Betfair would be the way to go if regularly betting for the place I think. However, considering your stated profit margin so far scottsbluff, I'd be ignoring the place bets and loading up on the win bets for sure.

[scottsbluff]

Hello all,

made the move & back on line but no sky until next week so no betting this weekend. Thanks for your reply Usurper l see you have added up the total win amount for the month X $90 to get your result, yes i have been looking at the horses for 9 years & investing for approx 6yrs but if l knew which ONE horse only to invest on l would not be on this forum looking for advise. Crash l will look at opening other accounts to abtain a better profit margin & l agree with you & Usurper that droping the place bets may be the way to go BUT l will have to do some dummy runs for the next 3-6 mths to make sure my strike rate is there as if l had of invested in three horses per race l would have had a small loss so l will have to look at the strike rate of my top two selections & see if this is more profitable.

Thanks & good punting today,

scottsbluff

[Stix]

"l agree with you & Usurper that droping the place bets may be the way to go"

It's hard for some punters to do, the nice warm cuddle of a collect for the place is very hard to give up, regardless of the prospective gains in doing so.

It's different again if you are betting more than one horse in a race and hard to justify, but your results will tell you this.

Do what you feel comfortable with.

[crash]

scottsbluff,
Your profit margin is so good [outstanding], apart from seeking better odds I can't see anyone here helping you to improve your profits. Any punter would be rapt if they were doing half as well.

[scottsbluff]

Thanks Crash,

as l said l will look at fine tuning to remove the place betting but only with research at the moment & stick to the basics the way l am going as it is making money.

Crash thanks for your kind words & l will keep you posted if l can acheave better results but l think increasing my bet size may be the way to go as the results are consitent every month.

thanks again

scottsbluff

[scottsbluff]

Hello All,

finished 1 year of punting l am starting the new year today (had march off) as yesterday to wet for me. The figures below are from 1/03/08 to 28/02/09 (sat & sun only). If you go back through this thread you will see an attached file that will show you how l bet, all races $90 (1351 bets @ $90) investment for whole year.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 184pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=245 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 64pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108" width=85><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 64pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=85 height=17>Total Profit</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 72pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=96>Total Outlay</TD><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:num="32956.5">$ 32,956.50 </TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="121590">$ 121,590.00 </TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.27104613866271898" x:fmla="=SUM(A2/B2*100%)">27.10%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

This year l am starting with $3,000 bank and betting 2.5% of bank per bet each betting day and adjust bet as bank grows or decreases as i feel this will increase profits as all bets last year were all $90.

Thanks for all your replys as all where good info, will keep you posted on how l go this year,

regards scottsbluff

[Sparky12]

Scottsbluff

Congrats on your continued success. I also use ratings but calculate these myself - I'm interested to know how you determine when you're getting "overs"? Do you calculate forecast prices yourself from the ratings you use or are you using published price forecasts linked to your ratings to do the job for you?

Cheers

Sparky

[scottsbluff]

Thanks for the kind words Sparky,


yes l source my ratings from one area then link to prices from other source & then look for overs from race to race, its not uncommon to wait 45-50 minutes between races to obtain the right price & selections as l have said l have a selection process so if it does not all gell NO BET. I strated betting again on sunday which was good 10 bets @$75 & profit of $465.00 so good start to this year.

good punting scottsbluff

[Shaun]

I realy think you need to use percentage of bank never reduceing, you can recalculate on a daily or weekly bets.

[scottsbluff]

Hi Shaun,

my bets will be always 2.5% off the bank on that betting day so l dont adjust the bets throughout the day, only when l start the next day, then my bets would be 2.5% of the bank for that day. I would only reduce the amount of the bet if the bank decreased, that way l feel safe.

Not sure if this the safest way to go but did not have losing month last year(cross fingers) most run of outs 8 without no return & the figures are consitant each week so im going for it.

will let you know how it goes,

scottsbluff