Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint

[Skytrain]

WEEKEND HUSSLER, winner of 12 from 15 at an exceptional 80% strike rate that includes seven G1 wins from eight attempts....amazing no matter how you look at it, right?

This horse appears to have it all. An ability to take a position where it suits and then relax until jockey Brad Rawiller asks the horse to let down and KABOOM, watch him explode!

Weekend Hussler's breeding gives some insight into why the gelding is such an exciting thoroughbred with both sire and dam containing some of the world's most gifted racehorses and sires over the last century.

Sire Hussonet is by the influencial Mr Prospector while Hussonet's dam Sacahuista won the 1987 renewal of the US Breeders Cup Turf. Apart from being the dam of Hussonet she also produced Ekraar, a G1 winner in Italy over 11f and three time stakes winner in the UK. Go searching through Sacahuista's pedigree and you'll find champions Ribot and Man'O'War as well as a double cross of Nearco.

Plenty has been made of Weekend Hussler's staying influence on the side of his dam Weekend Beauty...and that's spot on. Hussler's damsire Helissio won the ARC in France as well as two other G1's over 2400m in France. Helissio carries plenty of staying blood via his dam Helice who has US Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew as her 2nd sire while her damsire Val De Loir sired Japan Cup winner Pay The Buttler. Other stallions of note among Weekend Beauty's bloodline are Northern Dancer, Grosvenor, Roberto, Star Kingdom and plenty of Nearco ....what more would you want in a racehorse ?!?!

The answer depends on what type of racehorse one wants.

Cont.....

[tevez17]

I assuming you're asking the question ""Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?p=169461#post169461) ?""
rather than saying this is why "Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?p=169461#post169461)" ?

I've been looking for reasons to knock this horse for 9 months & have struggled to come up with one, the only query is how it'll deal with it's inexperience at longer distances but it's already shown that it's capable with still having alot in the tank, personally i hope Pompei Ruler & a few others give it a real challenge all spring, but it may well be that Weekend Hussler is just better than anything else going around.

[Filante]

He's also got At Talaq on the dam side -

Won: Grand Prix de Paris-G1 (FR), L.K.S. Mc Kinnon S.-G1 (AUS), Foster's Melbourne Cup-G1 (AUS), C. F. Orr S.-G2 (AUS)

2nd: Warren S. (ENG), Grosser Preis von Berlin-G1 (GER), Underwood S.-G1 (AUS), Craiglee S.-G2 (AUS), Foster's Caulfield Cup-G1 (AUS), Australian Cup-G1 (AUS)

3rd: Derby Italiano-G1 (ITY)

[crash]

If WH wins the Cox Plate, a paddock should follow, not a flogging in the big Cups. Money will rule though and it will be onto the Cups.

[Horse Whisperer]

Im really looking forward to this Saturdays race. It will answer alot of questions as to where these horses are placed for the big races this spring. God I love this time of year!!

[Matilda]

WH last run wasnt that impressive as for me. Another word is that the longer it go, the less impressive I am. This weekend will end his great performance. I believe Tuesday JOy, PR or Littorio will impress.

[schonegg]

If WH wins the Cox Plate, a paddock should follow, not a flogging in the big Cups. Money will rule though and it will be onto the Cups.As well, the 55.5kg(56.5kg in CC) is probably the reason he might still run in those. If he wins the Cox Plate and keeps winning next Autumn, he might get 59kg+ next year for the cups, so couldn't run. I reckon it's this year or never.

[Filante]

WH last run wasnt that impressive as for me. Another word is that the longer it go, the less impressive I am. This weekend will end his great performance. I believe Tuesday JOy, PR or Littorio will impress.

I don't think there's been a more impressive run this season from any horse. He was three wide on the pace the whole trip and, under those circumstances, was a sitting shot for any horse behind him to run over the top of him. He easily held PR to the line. TJ and Littorio are handicappers.
WH should clearly run odds-on and win the Turnbull. Here's the field:

PATINACK TURNBULL STAKE

4-Y-O & Up. SW + P No Claims. Group 1.

2000 Metres $502,000 4.20 PM

 1 Efficient (NZ) (John Sadler) S W Arnold 6 58.5

 2 Pompeii Ruler (Mick Price) C Newitt 2 58.5

 3 Zipping (John Sadler) 9 58.5

 4 Weekend Hussler (Ross McDonald) B Rawiller 13 57.5

 5 Master O'Reilly (NZ) (Danny O'Brien) V Duric 8 57.0

 6 Maldivian (NZ) (Mark Kavanagh) M Rodd 7 57.0

 7 Tuesday Joy (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse) D Beadman 11 56.5

 8 Guillotine (NZ) (David Hayes) C Williams 5 56.0

 9 Zarita (NZ) (Pat Hyland) G Childs 12 55.5

10 Alexander of Hales (USA) (Danny O'Brien) D Oliver 3 54.5

11 Extend (John Sadler) 1 54.5

12 Zagreb (David Hayes) D Dunn 10 54.0

13 Littorio (Nigel Blackiston) Steven King 4 53.0

[Horse Whisperer]

I don't think there's been a more impressive run this season from any horse. He was three wide on the pace the whole trip and, under those circumstances, was a sitting shot for any horse behind him to run over the top of him. He easily held PR to the line.

Ive watched the race a few times and i can only see weekend hussler 3 wide from the 800 to about the 500. Pompeii Ruler to my eye was taking a fair amount of ground off the champ untill it got a fair check, then once he rebalanced was taking more ground off the hussler all the way to the line. I dont see in the race how he easily held P.R. watching the replay here http://www.horseracing.bigpond.com/ if there is another one showing the run differently please point it out.

By the way im definitely not bagging the horse, i dont know how anyone can. I just saw the run very differently.

[Skytrain]

WEEKEND HUSSLER, winner of 12 from 15 at an exceptional 80% strike rate that includes seven G1 wins from eight attempts....amazing no matter how you look at it, right?

This horse appears to have it all. An ability to take a position where it suits and then relax until jockey Brad Rawiller asks the horse to let down and KABOOM, watch him explode!..............

........The answer depends on what type of racehorse one wants.

Cont.....Before you go on, please excuse spelling, missed words of paragraphs or anything that appears gibberish as I have had a VERY EARLY morning and I'm all horsed out. I actually forgot to finish this except I saw a comment in my mail, so here it goes..............

(Deleted - shouting. Moderator.)

Starting from barrier 13 this Saturday at his first trip over 2000m will be his first big test. Flemington's long straight will give the field plenty of time to run him down, especially with the set weight and penalties working against him. The majority of the field are stayers aiming at the Cups and they'll be getting close to peak fitness. I have no doubt that should he fail (without reasonable excuse) on Saturday then he is no hope in the Caulfield Cup. Here's why....

Firstly I believe that the horses he'll meet in the Caulfield Cup have yet to show their best. Horses like Zagreb, Maldivian, Tuesday Joy, Nom Du Jeu, Red Ruler and Zipping have been running well over unsuitable distances and won't have any problems at the 12f. Futhermore, with the weights to be increased it will favour those genuine stayers and that isn't taking into consideration the chance of a wet track that would really see them slog it out.

While Weekend Hussler's breeding suggest he should run 2400m comfortably, I believe that won't be the case. The gelding's greatest asset is his turn of foot and I can see it being greatly diminished once he gets above 2000m. While Weekend Hussler does relax well in his races we've only seen him step above 1600m once (1800m at Caulfield) and that was at WFA. Running the 2400m of the hectic Caulfield Cup will be a completely different ball game with Weekend Hussler having to give a horse like Zagreb 5kgs !!!

I'm also concerned that connections haven't set the horse for one specific race, expecting him to back up seven days later over 10f. While it has been done before you'll find that those successful in their venture have usually been around the block previously (eg: Northerly had won the Cox Plate the year before taking out the Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double.)

It's a major concern that Weekend Hussler has become accustomed to racing over the sprinter/miler trip which will work against him both physically and mentally as the race distance increase. Until last start all but one of his races were between 1200m - 1600m yet he'll be going up greatly in distance after this weeks Turnbull. It's extremely rare for a horse to race in the Caulfield Cup without having raced at 2000m + in a previous preparation and surely the Caulfield Cup is not the race to test a 4yr old's staying ability.

Remember, the opposition in this years Caulfield Cup has a great combination of class and potential. Maldivian, Tuesday Joy and Zipping (should he run) are more than capable of winning the race although it's the 4yr olds that I've targetted in the early markets. Littorio, Guillotine, Zarita and Zagreb will all be meeting Weekend Hussler this Saturday and I suggest that a close eye is kept on all.

When it's all said and done I simply see Weekend Hussler as a miler who may be able to get over 2000m on raw ability, but not against the best stayers in Australasia giving them weight....and I haven't even touched on the imports.

The Cox Plate is a completely different scenerio. The problems I see Weekend Hussler confronting are not so problematic one out but combined they are disastrous.

First we take a look at the track itself...insanity !!! For a horse like W.Husler the strathayr surface is a nightmare as it nullifies his greatest asset...a blistering turn of foot. The strathayr surface has plenty of give and the simple fact is that horses hit top speed quicker on a firm surface . What's worse for those exploding types is that they'll perform at their best when balanced up which can be difficult when letting down on the cambered turn that Moonee Valley provides.

The Cox Plate itself is usually run at high speed and come the 800m mark they start powering along. This compounds the problem for horses that like to be held back a little for one powerful burst as they find themselves way out of their ground rounding the final turn. Because of the fast tempo it's almost impossible to win the Cox Plate unless you're close to the lead on entering the straight which simply means that a horse must be able to sustain a long run at high speed. Acceleration is not a neccesity except for the rare occassion where there's no speed. Last year's renewal saw El Segundo race handier than usual, sprinting away to win a race devoid of front runners although that won't be the case this year if Maldivian and Devil Moon take their place.

The effect of the strathayr surface on certain types of thoroughbreds can't be underestimated. Horses like Tie The Knot, Lonhro and Shogun Lodge could run lightning fast sectionals yet failed in the Cox Plate, due in part to their inability to go early and sustain a run which caught them out. Since the reconstruction of the Moonee Valley track we've seen the race won by Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Northerly, Fields Of Omagh, Sunline, Makybe Diva...all horses that could go early and work their way to within striking distance of the leaders (or lead themselves) but more importantly sustain that run from the 800m all the way home. Again, acceleration is not vital, in fact Northerly was often caught a little flat footed yet he won all three starts at the Valley.

I do not believe that Weekend Hussler fits into the latter group, if anything his ability to relax then explode is very much in the same mould of Lonhro, a champion racehorse who was lengths below his best on the strathayr track.

Like Lonhro, Weekend Hussler will never have raced on the track prior to the Cox Plate. This can be taken any way one likes yet I believe it's a mistake. In my opinion it makes sense to observe how a horse handles the track so any adjustments can be made or so the jockey can re-evaluate his race plan (eg: horse changes leg on straightening, drifts onto fence as Northerly used to or struggles to pick up speed...which would force them to ride the horse closer to the lead.) And so on and so on...I can remember the connections of Grandera saying how they would love to run the race over again due to the track's "unusual complexities". Or something like that.

What can't be overlooked is the fact that this horse has just turned 4yrs and coming into the Cox Plate will be having his 7th start for the preparation. Considering that he had never gone futher than 1600m in past preps there has to be concerns on him going over the top or burning out. Unlike other runners set solely for the race, their first few runs nothing more than barrier trials, Weekend Hussler has been racing hard ever since his first up loss. Forget the fact that he displays an appearance of a horse with plenty of condition, the trick is to keep him fresh enough so he can produce his brilliance while getting him fit enough to run out the staying trips.

The problem as I see it is training the horse to stay the 12f of the Caulfield Cup without affecting his speed required for the Cox Plate. Fred Kersley wouldn't have had the same problem as the qualities that saw Northerly win the Caulfield Cup made him the perfect type for the Cox Plate...just bowl along on pace at a high crusing speed. More importantly, coming into the 2002 Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double, Northerly was a tough 6yr old veteran with six group 1 wins to his name, three of those at 2000m.

The one advantage Weekend Hussler does have with the Cox Plate is it's a smaller select field at WFA. The wild cards often come in the shape of the 3yr olds who need to have a combination of class and toughness to defeat the older seasoned superstars. More often than not it's a case of last 3yr old standing.

If Weekend Hussler was being set for the Cox Plate alone, passing the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, I would rate him as the horse to beat BUT the Caulfield Cup is a tough race for the best of them and I can't help but feel that when they roll into the Moonee Valley straight seven days later, Weekend Hussler will have had enough.

Because I doubt that Weekend Hussler will be anywhere but the spelling paddock come Melbourne Cup day I'll quickly say that Efficient is the horse to beat. Zabeels are like fine wine and the rise in weight should be offset by his overall improvement. Again the lightly weighted 4yr olds that scrape into the race will make it interesting as will the imports yet I like the fact that the Melbourne Cup has again been Efficient's only focus.

[Filante]

Ive watched the race a few times and i can only see weekend hussler 3 wide from the 800 to about the 500. Pompeii Ruler to my eye was taking a fair amount of ground off the champ untill it got a fair check, then once he rebalanced was taking more ground off the hussler all the way to the line. I dont see in the race how he easily held P.R. watching the replay here http://www.horseracing.bigpond.com/ if there is another one showing the run differently please point it out.

By the way im definitely not bagging the horse, i dont know how anyone can. I just saw the run very differently.

You're right there HW. He was posted 3-wide only in that part of the race where you don't want to be 3 wide, and at that stage he also had no cover and was sitting on a strong speed set by Maldivian. PR had the drop on him and would have beaten any other horse in Australia under similar circumstances.

I expect we agree that WH was the better run and better than the margin reflects.

[Horse Whisperer]

You're right there HW. He was posted 3-wide only in that part of the race where you don't want to be 3 wide, and at that stage he also had no cover and was sitting on a strong speed set by Maldivian. PR had the drop on him and would have beaten any other horse in Australia under similar circumstances.

I expect we agree that WH was the better run and better than the margin reflects..

My comments were only based on the fact i had read in so many different places that Weekend Hussler was 3 wide the entire trip but he wasnt. My thoughts were if Pompeii ruler hadnt come in on Weekend hussler and had to rebalance slightly it would have been a very good race between the two. This weekend will be the deciding race on how good this horse is stepping up to 2000m and against probably the best field he has faced. Im not a knocker of the horse but i would love to see it get beaten, just for the simple fact that im an aussie and i love to see the underdog get up :) Just like i was barracking for Hawthorne last week for the same reason

[Filante]

He did run the first part of the race outside of Indio Glorioso who in turn was outside of Maldivian...it's really a matter of perspective.

[Horse Whisperer]

He did run the first part of the race outside of Indio Glorioso who in turn was outside of Maldivian...it's really a matter of perspective.

But both of those horses went around the outside of Weekend Hussler after they jumped?? He never went around Indio Glorioso untill the 800?

[Filante]

But both of those horses went around the outside of Weekend Hussler after they jumped?? He never went around Indio Glorioso untill the 800?

Try this -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4gzrusADoM

He doesn't get past Indio Glorioso until around 1:13 into the race. Before that he sits behind Indio Glorioso, and probably wider than that horse (which is one of the fence outside Maldivian).

There is a clear picture of him racing 3 wide between 0:47 and 0:49.

It is a matter of perspective as to whether he was racing 3 wide before that - you just can't tell with the camera angle.

What was impressive about the run was that he raced wide without cover on the speed for a significant portion of the race and was still too good for Pompeii Ruler, who had the sit on him.

Tomorrow should be much the same pattern - with Maldivian leading from Weekend Hussler and Pompeii Ruler sitting back 3rd or possibly 4th if Extend pushes up. The advantage to these three runners, compared to Caulfield, is that Indio Glorioso is not in the field. This takes some pressure out of the speed.

Barring some crazy track bias (remember this meeting last year) Weekend Hussler should win.

[Horse Whisperer]

Your right Filante it is a matter of perspective. I also agree with you on where the horses will be placed tomorrow. Tuesday joy should be back around 6th or 7th and Littorio 12th or 13th. They come roud the turn and the Hussler kicks clear. pompeii ruler chasing hard and goes past him around the 100m with tuesday joy closing hard and littorio coming from the clouds. Tusday Joy and Littorio get past Pompeii ruler in the last 20m (ala the cox plate 2yrs ago :P) and a photo finish between Tuesday Joy and Littorio keeps everyone on the edge of their seats. The Hussler a galant 4th after being 3 wide on the fence the entire trip (your honor i retract that final comment)

No but in all seriousness I cant wait for this race tomorrow and if the Hussler i wont be to upset knowing i have finally witnessed one of these greats everyone talks about before i began following the GG's.

[Stix]

I fear there is an aweful lot riding on what really is a lead-in race..... it is a very good field but, IMHO it's really not a defining race for the "making" of a horse. It's more a good lead to where all these horses are at after their last couple of starts have been neither here-nor-there and also been on rather interesting tracks patterns and of course has lead to some interesting results....looking forward to a good race and for the record I'm on the Ruler, which for the place represent better value than the Huss for the win.

Theis meeting up until about 4 years ago was just a run of the mill lead in meetings, until Makybe ran through and the Media (and VRC) ran with it and all power to them.

Good Luck to those having a punt, or just watching and looking for their "thrill"

Peace http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

[crash]

8 of the last 20 winners have started from barrier 12 or further out.

[Horse Whisperer]

8 of the last 20 winners have started from barrier 12 or further out.

12 of the last 20 winners have started from barriers 1 - 11 :)

[crash]

Touche !

[maverick1993]

if extend does what he did last start he might help set a real good tempo ,,,might suit the stablemates , littorio and Tuesdays Joy ..
could Loyd be using the pacemaker tactic ?? i've backed littorio and had a little on Zipping at the 81's ..

[Matilda]

Proven!!!

[dc]

wow.. nice work.. does this mean WH spring is finished? He got Pwned!

[xanadu]

post21,
Aren't those tactics illegal under the Rules Of Racing?

[crash]

WH's renowned flat spot just went on and on ! Is this the end?

[maverick1993]

post21,
Aren't those tactics illegal under the Rules Of Racing?


Post 24
Not sure ?
might come under the rule "riding the horse different for previous start ect" Extend always leads or atleast takes off early ,, its only my opinion that thinks he was wasting his time and doing a favour for the stayers out the back.,,an opinion that was luckily right and very profitable.

[Skytrain]

Try this -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4gzrusADoM

He doesn't get past Indio Glorioso until around 1:13 into the race. Before that he sits behind Indio Glorioso, and probably wider than that horse (which is one of the fence outside Maldivian).

There is a clear picture of him racing 3 wide between 0:47 and 0:49.

It is a matter of perspective as to whether he was racing 3 wide before that - you just can't tell with the camera angle.

What was impressive about the run was that he raced wide without cover on the speed for a significant portion of the race and was still too good for Pompeii Ruler, who had the sit on him.

Tomorrow should be much the same pattern - with Maldivian leading from Weekend Hussler and Pompeii Ruler sitting back 3rd or possibly 4th if Extend pushes up. The advantage to these three runners, compared to Caulfield, is that Indio Glorioso is not in the field. This takes some pressure out of the speed.

Barring some crazy track bias (remember this meeting last year) Weekend Hussler should win.
With the track bias IN FAVOUR OF WEEKEND HUSSLER he still got his brains kicked in by opposition that are finally reaching their peak form.

Simply put HE WAS EXPOSED !!!

Until today Weekend Hussler had never done anything "OUTSTANDING" yet we had people talking him up in the class of Phar Lap....INSANITY !!!

How quickly we forget a horse like Octagonal who followed up his Cox Plate win in the Spring with four Group 1 wins in the space of five weeks against horses like Saintly, Nothin Leica Dane and some other class horse with a stupid name.....yet Weekend Hussler wins Group 1's against an EI ravaged field and some decent sprinter-milers and next thing we know he's installed favourite for the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup....

I honestly thought I was going mad, which is why I'm so glad he flopped today as it justified my original belief that I'm the only sane punter in the whole damn country.....snapping up the overs on horses like Zipping and Co. as everyone else got swept up in the Hussle...

C'mon, surely I earn't bragging rights on this one. In fact if any of you gave some long, objective thoughts to my post then there was plenty of value to be had on the Hussler's opposition.

That said I didn't back Littorio in the Turnbull and I don't have him in any of my futures at fixed odds so it may all be for nothing in that respect.

I did however snare;

Zipping 20 (Caulf. Cup) x Samantha Miss 16 (Cox Plate) @ 320/1 9th Sep.

Zipping 20 (Caul. Cup) x Efficient 10 (Melb. Cup) @ 300/1

and a few others that are in with a chace.

[Skytrain]

WH last run wasnt that impressive as for me. Another word is that the longer it go, the less impressive I am. This weekend will end his great performance. I believe Tuesday JOy, PR or Littorio will impress.
Hope you had something on him today or at least in the Caulfield Cup where he'll carry 52.5kgs.

My best Caulfield Cup bets revolved around Zagreb at 50's and even a couple at 60's and with 50.5kgs I still think it was a good investment but after watching today's performances I would much rather be on Littorio at half the price if I had the chance.

The first three over the line in the Turnbull all went super.

[maverick1993]

must admit i didnt think he'd be gone so early,,then again i suppose any other horse facing the breeze 3 wide the whole way around a flemington 2000m would have excuses...

anyone heard what the plan is for him ?? do they go the Cox ??

[Skytrain]

must admit i didnt think he'd be gone so early,,then again i suppose any other horse facing the breeze 3 wide the whole way around a flemington 2000m would have excuses...When you start talking Phar Lap and Kingston Town you expect a horse to do better than he did against the horses that belted him today.

Champions can overcome unfavourable circumstances when required and to be honest I didn't see Weekend Hussler's situation as any reason for him to be so soundly defeated.

It wasn't as though he got badly checked and almost fell....had to be pulled across heels and forced to start his run again with only 150m to go...in a race like the Australian Cup against Makybe Diva, Elvstroem, Mummify, Pentastic and Delzao.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29NWNHXXS4&feature=related

anyone heard what the plan is for him ?? do they go the Cox ??I doubt that McDonald would throw their plans on the scrapheap after one loss because he has such a huge opinion of him but if they were to change anything you'd have to think that the Cox Plate over 10f at WFA would suit him better than a handicap at Caulfield over 12f.

On NSW TAB fixed odds he's still favourite (just) at 5/2 while has lost favourtism to Littorio for the Caulfield Cup.

He is 25/1 for the Melbourne Cup....

=============================
Content deleted ---- Members do not read these posts to be called idiots. Moderator. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon13.gif

[crash]

Maybe the Hussle just had an off day, it happens to all horses. Having said that. I've never called the horse a champion ...yet.

[Stix]

Maybe the Hussle just had an off day, it happens to all horses. Having said that. I've never called the horse a champi
on ...yet.Crash I agree...always allow a good horse at least one below par run.....

[maverick1993]

i hope he continues , as a punter i'll have a better chance at getting better odds for my selection . Littorio at 11's was incredible overs yesterday and Zipping at 81's ?

Now as a racing lover i couldnt help but be alittle sad the Huss was defeated so badly. The sport needs a champion. I must admit i've hardly backed him at all as he's always to short for me but i've enjoyed watching him win.

[darkydog2002]

I,m with you Maverick .
I hardly ever bet the champs as their odds are generally prohibitive.

Cheers.
darky

[tevez17]

If the odds are half decent i'd back him Next time out,

[dc]

Hussler is still fav to win the cox plate @ around $3.50 ... what the??? i definitely cant seeing him winning it after the turnbull .. why is he still favourite?? Im with the the pomp ruler.

[Sportz]

Weight of money. There would already have been a load of money bet on him. And also, as suggested, the thought that this was just his one bad run and he may be able to turn it all around.

[Horse Whisperer]

Hussler is still fav to win the cox plate @ around $3.50 ... what the??? i definitely cant seeing him winning it after the turnbull .. why is he still favourite?? Im with the the pomp ruler.

I couldnt back anything against the hussler with confidence in the Cox plate. Even though its over 2040 its the sort of race in my opinion will suit him. Im happy with my bets on Littorio and Nom De Jeu in the Caulfield Cup, but i cant pick anything against him at the valley

[Stix]

i hope he continues , as a punter i'll have a better chance at getting better odds for my selection . Littorio at 11's was incredible overs yesterday and Zipping at 81's ?

Now as a racing lover i couldnt help but be alittle sad the Huss was defeated so badly. The sport needs a champion. I must admit i've hardly backed him at all as he's always to short for me but i've enjoyed watching him win.....was he, dear I say, it the peoples E.I. champion........

[partypooper]

Whilst I love racing, I am humbled by the wealth of knowledge here, but in my 45 years on the punt I could write a volume twice the size of War and Peace, full of Weekend Hussler type failures.

I have to take my hat off to Maverick........ outstanding stuff!! Crash didn't you have a bit EW on Zipping?

[crash]

... Crash didn't you have a bit EW on Zipping?

Wish I had Party. The better half backed the winner though!

[Pauls123]

I follow sectional times very closely and the previous clash between Weekend Hussler and Littorio, seen Littorio gain 6 lengths on Weekend Hussler over the final 600m. One had to back Littorio on that effort.

The previous run prior to that of Weekend Hussler where we seen the Hussler running close up on the pace, the tempo for what race was one of the slowest I have seen, it was pretty well impossible for anything to come from behind him and win that day.

It's amazing what sectional times can reveal.

Paul

[Skytrain]

Crash I agree...always allow a good horse at least one below par run.....
It's a bad time to have a "bad run"

I think that people are starting to realise that the horse isn't the "Unbeatable Machine" that they built him up to be.

Even the trainer said he may not run in the Caulfield Cup if he draws a bad barrier AND they may have to race him off the pace...

It's a bit late for re-evaluations aint it?

[ungardy1]

I think your a bit hard on weekend hussler We cant all be perfect and neither can he. At least hes got the runs on the board as opposed to some donkeys I know are over rated. Why should we bother at all with your view on re evaluations. Maybe its a bit hard for you to appreciate a very very good horse when you see one.

[Stix]

It's a bad time to have a "bad run"

I think that people are starting to realise that the horse isn't the "Unbeatable Machine" that they built him up to be.

Even the trainer said he may not run in the Caulfield Cup if he draws a bad barrier AND they may have to race him off the pace...

It's a bit late for re-evaluations aint it?It's never a good time to have a bad run...... as you point out it (fortunately/unfortunately) allows for a chance to re-evaluate where the horse is at, we all know it's not an exact science, otherwise we'd be all on Xanadu's Fisho thread..... http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif All trainers reassess after a run, good, bad or otherwise.

[Crackone]

I hope he comes out next start and flogs them.
You think he is overrated we all have an opinion good bad or otherwise.
You cann't argue that he isn't a very good horse. Champion well that is still in the wind, the gloss has come of after his last start. I will give him two more starts before writing him of (over 2000 mt )

[crash]

There is nothing in the Hussler's breeding line that doesn't suggest 'staying'. A 3 wide run on a leader biased track didn't help. The horse was 'flat' last week after several 7 day turn-a-rounds and even the best horses in the past had those sort of poor runs. I still think the Hussler is the best horse in the country. Perhaps next start we will at least get better odds worth taking.

[Ambivalent1]

Hey Skytrain

I dont even think Zipping is gonna run in the Caulfield Cup.
Not in any of the markets anywhere?

[maverick1993]

yep i think you're right ,,No Zipping in CC ,,and i cant see him running in the MC either,,Loyd said after last years MC the horse can run a strong 2800m but the 2 miles is to long...
the Cox and the Mv cup i'd say ...

[Skytrain]

I think your a bit hard on weekend hussler We cant all be perfect and neither can he. At least hes got the runs on the board as opposed to some donkeys I know are over rated. Why should we bother at all with your view on re evaluations. Maybe its a bit hard for you to appreciate a very very good horse when you see one.When the trainer comes out and suggest that they're going to ride the horse differently and they change the gear.....I guess the trainer is re-evaluating things himself, no?

As for being "over rated", that's in reference to Weekend Hussler being rated alongside Phar Lap and Kingston Town, nothing else. One can suggest a horse is over rated and at the same time still hold admiration for the horse.

Personally I rate Weekend Hussler as an excellent sprinter/miler with the ability to carry his class up to 10f. Over time they may manage to win a good race at 2000m...even a Cox Plate, but I still believe we'll see the best of him at the mile.

[Skytrain]

There is nothing in the Hussler's breeding line that doesn't suggest 'staying'. A 3 wide run on a leader biased track didn't help. The horse was 'flat' last week after several 7 day turn-a-rounds and even the best horses in the past had those sort of poor runs. I still think the Hussler is the best horse in the country. Perhaps next start we will at least get better odds worth taking.
Has he had more than 1 this prep?

How will he go in the Cox Plate after a tough Caulfield Cup ?

On what basis could you rate Weekend Hussler as "the best in the country" when he hasn't won a race at 10f or further?

Best sprinter/miler YES...but we're stepping out of that realm and into stayer territory.

Having to give Zagreb and Guillotine 5kgs + over 12f will give him the opportunity to become a straight out champion but I'll be taking him on.

[Skytrain]

Hey Skytrain

I dont even think Zipping is gonna run in the Caulfield Cup.
Not in any of the markets anywhere?I backed Zipping a while ago as I had him in last years Melbourne Cup and thought that the obvious goal would be the Caulfield Cup this year.

Obviously Lloyd Williams wants a Cox Plate after a decade of cerise nightmares.

He did say a few weeks ago that Zipping couldn't beat Weekend Hussler at the weights in the Caulfield Cup but that was before W.H was beaten last start. Strange that the extra 400m would suit Zipping more than W.Hussler and Zipping will give Hussler weight in the Cox Plate, unlike the Caulfield Cup where Zipping would have carrier 1.5kgs less than W.H !!!

Thought he would have had a re-think. Maybe the combination of a fast tempo and a liking for the Moonee Valley circuit is what swayed Williams to by-pass the CC and focus solely on the CP....especially as Weekend Hussler will be disadvantaged by the seven day backup....or even be withdrawn if he fails miserably.

Finally, I was hoping Maldivian drew a barrier as I had no doubt that he would run a huge race in the CC (especially with no pace) but he's drawn dreadfully. I'll still have something each way because he's a class horse and he's runs haven't been all that bad at WFA but the work he has to do at the start of the race could tell over the last furlong.

MY SELECTIONS (dead track or better)

ZAGREB (with blinkers)
GUILLOTINE
MALDIVIAN
NOM DU JEU

[crash]

Has he had more than 1 this prep?

How will he go in the Cox Plate after a tough Caulfield Cup ?

On what basis could you rate Weekend Hussler as "the best in the country" when he hasn't won a race at 10f or further?

Best sprinter/miler YES...but we're stepping out of that realm and into stayer territory.

Having to give Zagreb and Guillotine 5kgs + over 12f will give him the opportunity to become a straight out champion but I'll be taking him on.

No champion yet but WH is easily the best horse in the country based on earnings and the group races won up until now. How the horse will go in the Cups and the Cox plate is unknown. I think WH should have been set for the Cox only, not the cups. Asking a bit much I think.

[Skytrain]

No champion yet but WH is easily the best horse in the country based on earnings and the group races won up until now. How the horse will go in the Cups and the Cox plate is unknown. I think WH should have been set for the Cox only, not the cups. Asking a bit much I think.Best horse in the country....That's a huge call and subjective at best.

Two years ago Efficient was in the middle of his very first preparation which saw him finish with five wins from six starts. Included in those wins were the G2 Moonee Valley Vase 2040m and a devestating victory in the G1 VRC Derby.

12 months later he was just as impressive taking out the Melbourne Cup.

While his winning ratio took a hit during that 12 month period there's no doubt that connections were willing to sacrifice that statistic for the greater good. Go through the history books and you'll find that it takes a special horse to win both a Derby and a Melbourne Cup and that's exactly what Efficient is....a special horse.

Weekend Hussler has dominated the G1 races he has contested from 1100m to 1800m but just as Efficient struggles over the shorter trips I believe you'll see Weekend Hussler struggle over the staying trips. In W.H's favour is the number of G1 events over suitable distances which gives the impression that he is a superior racehorse.

The simple fact is that no other major racing country in the world has a racing program where stayers are left in the cold. A good example is Melbourne's Autumn carnival where you have four G1 sprints over a five week period....it's insane !!! Meanwhile races like the Brisbane Cup are downgraded and the first leg of the Sydney 3yr old Triple Crown (Canterbury Guineas, now Randwick Guineas) is shortend from 1900m to 1600m. It should be noted that the Randwick Guineas was one of the G1's Weekend Hussler added to his CV.

When you look at Australasia's great thoroughbred champions you don't start at Manikato or Schillaci. Sure they were great speed machines and our champion sprinter/milers have a huge part to play in Australian racing but it's when the thoroughbred steps up to 2000m + that their ability is truely put to the test.

Tulloch, Phar Lap, Wakeful, The Barb, Carbine and more recently Octagonal, Sunline, Lonhro, Northerly and Makybe Diva all had the speed to win over the mile while possessing enough stamina to capture G1 events from 2000m up to 4800m. Wakeful, the greatest mare ever to race anywhere in the world won the Oakleigh Plate/ Newmarket Handicap double (both over 1200m at the time) then followed it up by winning another 23 stakes races including three over 4800m!

What's this got to do with Weekend Hussler ? Plenty. As a gelding Weekend Hussler's connections have plenty of time to amass a similar record if he is good enough but until he wins a G1 over 2000m or further he can never stand among the great champions of the past, especially in an era where our quality stayers are few and far between. Efficient is one of those rarities and his two G1's could be seen just as valuable as Weekend Husslers seven.

As for being set for the Cox Plate alone....I totally agree. I think connections got caught up in the hype. To have the horse run over 12f for the first time in a Caulfield Cup is insane. He won't win.

ZAGREB
GUILLOTINE
MALDIVIAN
NOM DU JEU

and I'll add RED RULER although I can't get help but think the No.1 barrier will see the big horse struggle for the room he needs. If the MRC don't flood the track he's a great each way hope.... although I've heard that regardless of the weather we'll get a track that rates dead/slow for the first race of the day.

THE END.

[xanadu]

G'day Skytrain,
With all due respect to your comments I think that due to current economics and mind-thoughts the era/future of champion aussie stayers is very limited and may be in decline.
If a trainer has one of potential then in this day and age he can chase those big money events all over the globe if he/she chooses.
While I lament the demise of the stayers' ranks in Oz we now have some of the best sprinter/milers in the world as borne out with our antipodean "raiders" which have plundered the best races in the northern hemisphere in recent years.
I can't see this changing in the immediate future so with the influx of international "raiders" for our carnival it reinforces the fact that racing today is truly international and everyone is much better off for this(imo).

Cheers.

[Skytrain]

G'day Skytrain,
With all due respect to your comments I think that due to current economics and mind-thoughts the era/future of champion aussie stayers is very limited and may be in decline.
It's in the balance, ain't it.

On one hand you have the influence of studs like Arrowfield that would be happy if every G1 race was from 1000m to 1600. On the other hand you've those like Darley Stud that won't be sending 100 female quarter horses to Lonhro or Octagonal.

You know there's a problem when there's greater prize money for a 2yr old sprint than the AJC Derby.


If a trainer has one of potential then in this day and age he can chase those big money events all over the globe if he/she chooses.
While I lament the demise of the stayers' ranks in Oz we now have some of the best sprinter/milers in the world as borne out with our antipodean "raiders" which have plundered the best races in the northern hemisphere in recent years.
I can't see this changing in the immediate future so with the influx of international "raiders" for our carnival it reinforces the fact that racing today is truly international and everyone is much better off for this(imo).

Cheers.
Name the five biggest races in the world:

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 12f
Kentucky Derby 12f
Japan Cup 12f
Melbourne Cup 16f
Dubai World Cup 10f

When was the last time we won one of the above? It's all well and good to go over to Royal Ascot and win the King Stand Stakes but until last year the race wasn't even worthy of G1 status.

As for having the best sprinter/milers in the world, that's debatable as the US have some awesome dirt sprinters. Because we have an obsession with 2yr olds many of them don't cut it once they're fully matured.

Things were looking good a few years ago when we had Sunline, Lonhro, Tie The Knot, Shogun Lodge, Northerly, Defier, Fields Of Omagh, Mummify, Elvstroem, Grand Armee.....then they all disappeared and all that was left was Makybe Diva who was declared a legend after beating some of the weakest opposition in living history.

Is history repeating with Weekend Hussler ?

[xanadu]

We'll just have to wait and see what happens in the upcoming weeks.
However, why do you think the overseas "raiders" venture "downunder?"
It is because they perceive the prospect of relatively "easy pickings" against what we have to offer.
I see nothing wrong with that because the kiwi stayers dominated our staying races for decades...and to some extent continue to do so.
It makes for competitive international racing and our local scene is much the better for it.

Cheers.

[Raw Instinct]

I for one don't give Weekend Hussler a hope in aaaa of winning this race on the weekend and I reckon i'll go as far as saying he won't run a place either, His stamina is nowhere near what most of the stayers are in this field but outside of that as has been pointed out his type of horse doesn't win these tough grueling staying test, He is a sit sprint miler who can probably get the 2000 in a slowly run WFA event.

it is a completely different story in the handicaps and almost always in ones of this magnitude there is almost always pressure galore in these races with stamina making a massive difference over the concluding stages of the race when the dash is gone.

I am a big fan of the kiwis in this race and alot of people say that they haven't done anything here in melbourne for so long but they haven't had the talent they have bought out here this year either.

[Stix]

Maybe they poured a heap of work into him before his last start which left him wanting at the end, all in preparation for him to run out the 2400m? Just a thought. Althought the last 150m didn't look convincing for me to have a go at him in the CC. Great thing about people and in particular punters is the different presepctives people have. This thread has been fantastic for debate and have really enjoyed - in the most part - the reasonabilty in the posts, thankfully the cheapshots have been absent, thanks Skytrain et al.

I have had a little go at Mad Rush, barrier and first look at track against him, but at $25 he's worth a look IMHO.

Good luck Lads.

[crash]

I like Mad Rush too Stix. With Oliver on board, even from barrier 17 he can't be ignored. Zagreb is my other fancy over Master O'Reilly [big weight rise].

Interestingly, WH gets a tongue tie tomorrow so maybe apart from a poor steering effort last start, WH might have got his tongue over the bit partly blocking breathing. Can't see a win though with 57kg and a bad barrier. In doubt for the Melbourne Cup because it might take the stuffing out of the horse for next year. I think WH's staying capacity is too early to call all things considered.

[Chuck]

I like Mad Rush too Stix. With Oliver on board, even from barrier 17 he can't be ignored. Zagreb is my other fancy over Master O'Reilly [big weight rise].

With Oliver on board he'll probably come 2nd! :D

i like mad rush, but i think they are just looking for a good performance before the melbourne cup

[Skytrain]

Going over the race for the final time, taking into consideration the rail out six and a firm track, I surprised myself with the runner that kept jumping out at me....

ICE CHARIOT.

The horse is so much better on firm going and I'll be having a good crack at him each way. The horse to beat is....

GUILLOTINE.

While the big money has come for my original selection

ZAGREB

For my exotics I'll be throwing in the three Kiwis...

RED RULER, NOM DU JEU and BOUNDLESS.

As for Weekend Hussler I predict that they'll want him riden close to the lead and if they go slow he'll put in a good show for his fans on what should be a leaders track. Littorio and Maldivian are the best of the rest.

[Skytrain]

While I should be here gloating about my successful prediction regarding Weekend Hussler's demise (Thumps and all) I've got bigger issues.


ZAGREB :mad:

Since August 9 I've had these two little bits of paper in my wallet, the first a TAB ticket explaining how I've backed a horse named Zagreb in the Caulfield Cup at $60, the amount to be returned if successful $1,800. The second is a similar bet but at $70 for the Melbourne Cup, this one to return 1,400 if successful.

Now I know it aint an amount to get all suicidal about but I rather enjoyed the idea of having one of the race favourites go around for me at 60/1 (you feel smarter than you know you really are) The night before my wife said not to get my hopes up as he'd probably get hit by lightning or come into some other bad luck just as Mouwad did the day before the Doncaster and Redoute's Choice did the day before the Australian Guineas...and how Shogun Lodge dropped dead as did Unworldly, Oscar Schindlar never made it to race day while Doriemus was nosed out of the big race....

Every one of these horses had been backed for their up coming race by myself at fixed odds (majority were second legs with bookies after winning the first leg) and I'd be cirtain that my wife was a double agent for the bookies had my bets been for reasonable sums....alas that wasn't the case BUT it doesn't make things any easier.

Oh yeah, she also blames me for her father's unraced 2yr old dropping dead of a heart attack during track work...but I didn't name the stupid thing EXPLOADABUL. No it ain't rubbish. Had just been transferred to the Mick Price stable from pre training with Ledger and was flying. Was thought to be a real chance for the Blue Diamond and was in the market at 60/1. Why shouldn't I have had a couple of dollars on it.....the last 2yr old they had was Principality and it won the stupid race.

But as I'm reminded that was still 12 months before I met my wife.