Ratings From Prizemoney

[Equine Investor]

Something I have been messing around with for quite some time, while it doesn't give an indication of fitness, this could be incorporated as well.

RULES
1. You need The Sportsman or similar giving the total prizemoney for each race your horse has competed in.

2. You allocate prizemoney from that race on lengths from winner.
E.G. If your runner won the race of $100,000 prizemoney you give him $100,000

If your runner ran third by 2.5 lengths, you give him $100,000 divided by 2.5 = $40,000

If your runner ran 8th 9.6 lengths behind the winner you allocate $100,000 divided by 9.6 = $10,417 (rounded up).

Thus you can get an indication of the class runs of the horse and how it performs overall in each class.

3. You then add up ALL the prizemoney from every runner in today's race. You divide your runners total prizemoney (calculated by you) into the total of the field.

Example:

257,520 divided by 10,367,487 X 100 to give a percentage = 2.483 or around 35/1.

Anything above this price is "overs".

Play around with it, you may be surprised at some results etc.

Any input positive or negative (constructive) welcome.

Bear in mind it's the rough workings of a raving lunatic with too much time on his hands and there are other factors which should also be considered.

:wink:

[Bhagwan]

Join the club.

[Bhagwan]

Join the club.

[noel]

equine investor,
what if the horse runs half a length second....do you say $100,000 divided by half equals $200,000 prizemoney???

cheers,noel

[becareful]

Maybe you should divide by 1+LengthsBeaten? So if beaten by 0.5 lengths then divide by 1.5, beaten by 5 lengths then divide by 6, etc.

[Paddy]

quote

Bear in mind it's the rough workings of a raving lunatic with too much time on his hands and there are other factors which should also be considered.

/quote

I couldn't agree more :lol:

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-10-25 12:42, noel wrote:
equine investor,
what if the horse runs half a length second....do you say $100,000 divided by half equals $200,000 prizemoney???

cheers,noel


Hi noel, as I say it's a rough idea that needs a lot of work but sometimes comes up with some fantastic overs. I might just post some ratings next week when I have more time.

In answer to your question, yes.
Because it evens out a horse beaten 3 lengths second is not as good a bet as a horse beaten 0.5 lengths 3rd in the same class of race.

[PunterPete]

Great idea. I used prizemoney won as an aside in my database which I have now combined with your idea. It does give an ok indication of the class of horse. (only very small test run so far).

When further combined with time calculation to weed out the out of form horses results are interesting.

Thanks for the idea.

[luckylouie]

Hi, I too use prize money as an indicator but do it in a much simpler form as part of a system I am currently refining. All I do is divide the total prize money by the number of races to get a minimum average of $3,000 per race. Have found this works particularly well with the younger horses as a quick way of rating the strength of the field. Seems to be particularly useful for mid week meetings as you will often find a much bigger discrepancy between one standout horse and the rest of the pack.

[Equine Investor]

I haven't had much time lately to actually do the ratings, as it's pretty time consuming.

I'll definitely post something soon though so we can get some input on refinements - I only want to give ratings for future races so we can see it in action "live".

[Equine Investor]

O.K. it's been a very long time coming but I have manually rated the Bendigo Cup using my ratings from prizemoney system. I have tweaked twisted and tortured these ratings beyond belief and I don't think that for one minute the prices are accurate. However, the top three rated are a very good chance to take it out at good odds.
Incidentally, I have rated two races so far this week.

So far results:

3 SELECTIONS - 0 wins 2 placings $1.60 and $3.00
(Bear in mind I picked three per race and there were 3 scratchings which left 3 runners).

The prices are not bookmakers prices but tote prices.

BENDIGO R6 BENDIGO CUP
1 Grey Song - $3.10
2 Piachay - $5.90
3 Big Pat - $15.50
4 Time Off - $7.60
5 Skinjite - $114.20
6 Firetaine - $28.50
7 Forlorna - $45.40
8 Pantani - $23.40
9 Crescent - $26.40
10 Fearless Sophie - $65.60
11 Le Destina - $33.50
12 Perliffic - $37.20
13 Shibiri - $54.50
14 Soldado - $59.50
15 West Highland Way - $22.70
16 Zamarin - $108.20

Bear in mind the huge prices occur from crude workings from the last three starts only.

So here are my top three in order:

Grey Song
Piachay
Time Off

Will be looking with eagerness.
:grin:

[Equine Investor]

With the scratchings of Grey Song and Skinjite the tips are now....

Piachay $3.90
Time Off $5.10
Big Pat $10.30