Last Start Winner Plan

[Bhagwan]

Here`s a plan that produced over 100% POT

1)Last start winner in last 7 Days.
2)Dist 1200-1600
3)Field size 9-13
4)TAB Nos.5-12 only
(This helps avoid the shorter priced mules that it tends to through up)

If 2 or more sel. back them all.
Operates 7 days a week.

[dinodog]

hi

i ran this back to the 21/1/01 all days tracks etc and came up with

Meetings considered : 3050
Races selected : 240
Horses selected : 247
- Number that won : 36
- Strike Rate/Race : 15.0%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 14.6%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 33.6%
Return at $1/Seln. : $261.80
- Average Win Div. : $7.27
- Absolute Profit : $14.80
- Profit on Turnover: 6.0%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 5580.00 1297.00 1302.00 116.00
- Races WITH bets : 239 240 240 111
- Races WITH collect: 15 43 27 44
- Strike Rate/Race : 6.3% 17.9% 11.2% 39.6%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 7089.00 831.40 1404.00 105.20
- Absolute $ Profit : 1509.00 -465.60 102.00 -10.80
- Profit on Turnover: 27.0% -35.9% 7.8% -9.3%

at no time did i see anything like 100% pot. so something is amiss

regards

dinodog


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2002-10-25 18:22 ]</font>

[croc]

Hey there dinodog I agree with however if you set your selection criteria somewhat tighter you maybe pleasantly surprised. Try making it for Saturday only and run S,M and B individually - forget A and W - see how you go anyway.

Croc

PS Have you upgraded to V2 and, if so, what do you think of it?

[dinodog]

hi croc

yes i have upgraded. it's ok, but as neale admits, "it's not finished yet".

for the most part i enjoy it but there are some niggling issues with the inflexibility of some the parameters, including no midweek place divvies.

regards

dinodog

[dinodog]

hi croc

i did as you said, the result appears below back to 1/1/2000.

Meetings considered : 4595
Races selected : 72
Horses selected : 75
- Number that won : 14
- Strike Rate/Race : 19.4%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 18.7%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 37.3%
Return at $1/Seln. : $140.20
- Average Win Div. : $10.01
- Absolute Profit : $65.20
- Profit on Turnover: 86.9%

that's 34 months for 75 bets with 19.4% s/r, longest run of outs 14 second longest 11. don't get me wrong, the profit sounds impressive, i just don't think i could stick with it

regards

dinodog


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2002-10-27 06:50 ]</font>

[enjay]

All you guys and gals with price price predictor, have a look at these results.]
Yes I have gold v 2 and the latest update(last week)..I hope this screen
shot comes out.........


Meetings considered : 418
Races selected : 77
Horses selected : 83
- Number that won : 23
- Strike Rate/Race : 29.9%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 27.7%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 45.8%
Return at $1/Seln. : $194.80
- Average Win Div. : $8.47
- Absolute Profit : $111.80
- Profit on Turnover: 134.7%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 1792.00 423.00 428.00 83.00
- Races WITH bets : 77 77 77 77
- Races WITH collect: 10 24 17 37
- Strike Rate/Race : 13.0% 31.2% 22.1% 48.1%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 3207.20 1043.70 1560.10 101.64
- Absolute $ Profit : 1415.20 620.70 1132.10 18.64
- Profit on Turnover: 79.0% 146.7% 264.5% 22.5%

Test Duration = 00:04:53
(Sorry the screen shot did not come out so attached result sheet...)

[enjay]

Whoops. Forgot to say that these results are for Melbourne only, Sat only back to 1/1/00

[nevets]

my math maybe wrong but given 3 years of results there should only be somewhere in the vicinity of 150 meetings if only melb and only saturday yet you wrote meetings considered (over 400) sorry but i cant figure that

[enjay]

My humble apologies Nevets.

I was thinking of something else. The results are for 2 years only 28/10/200 up to 26/10/202. I use 3 setings other than default and next 6 as standouts for exotics.

Sorry again. enjay

[Big Louie]

Hi enjay.

I'm a bit confused.

You posted these results from your Price Predictor program:

Meetings considered : 418
Races selected : 77
Horses selected : 83
- Number that won : 23
- Strike Rate/Race : 29.9%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 27.7%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 45.8%
Return at $1/Seln. : $194.80
- Average Win Div. : $8.47
- Absolute Profit : $111.80
- Profit on Turnover: 134.7%


....then you said they were for Melbourne Saturday only, for a couple of years.


Would you mind clarifying this.

Is it Bhagwan's original criteria, except you replace all venues and 7 days with Melbourne Saturday only?

Or is it some other criteria?

Appreciate any help you can give.

Thanks
Big Louie

[enjay]

Mornin' Big Louie.

I use different distances, must have 2 runs back and not be up or down in weight or distance from last start .If you care to contact me I can give you some more info.
at sabu57@hotmail.com

Cheers.

[Big Louie]

hi enjay,

I tried writing to your email address address a couple of times to take you up on your offer of more info, but haven't heard back from you.

Just wondering if the mail got through.

You can write to me at louie200356@optushome.com.au

Thanks & regards,
Big Louie