Melbourne Cup 2008

[maverick1993]

- EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP (3200 METRES)
Of $5500000 and $150000 trophies. 1st $3300000 and trophies of $125000 to owner $10000 to trainer $10000 to jockey $5000 to strapper, 2nd $835000, 3rd $420000, 4th $220000, 5th $150000, 6th $115000, 7th $115000, 8th $115000, 9th $115000, 10th $115000.
(GROUP 1).
No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 24
No Horse Trainer Ballot Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 SEPTIMUS (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 1 58.5 1
2 EFFICIENT (NZ) John Sadler 2 58 1.5
3 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien 3 55 4.5
4 ALL THE GOOD (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 10 55 2.0 4.5
5 HONOLULU (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 8 54.5 1.0 5
6 C'EST LA GUERRE (NZ) John Sadler 4 54 4
7 NOM DU JEU (NZ) Murray Baker 5 54 4
8 YELLOWSTONE (IRE) Jane Chapple-Hyam 6 54 5.5
9 ZIPPING John Sadler 7 54 5.5
10 MAD RUSH (USA) Luca Cumani 9 53.5 6
11 ICE CHARIOT Ron Maund 11 53 6.5
12 VIEWED Bart Cummings 12 53 6.5
13 LITTORIO Nigel Blackiston 13 52.5 5.5
14 RED RULER (NZ) John Sargent 14 52.5 5.5
15 BOUNDLESS (NZ) Stephen Mckee 15 52 4.5
16 GUYNO (NZ) Lou Luciani 16 52 7.5
17 ZARITA (NZ) Pat Hyland 17 52 4.5
18 BAUER (IRE) Luca Cumani 22 52 1.0 7.5
19 GALLOPIN (NZ) Danny O'Brien 23 52 1.0 8.5
20 PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE) Dermot K Weld 18 51.5 6.5
21 RED LORD Anthony Cummings 19 51.5 8
22 RIVA SAN Peter G Moody 20 51.5 5
23 VAREVEES (GB) Richard Gibson 21 51.5 6.5
24 NEWPORT Paul Perry 38 51.5 1.5 8
25 PRIZE LADY (NZ) Graeme Sanders 24 51 7
26 BAUGHURST Bill Wilde 27 51 0.5 8.5
27 ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) Aidan O'Brien 25 50.5 5
28 BARBARICUS Danny O'Brien 26 50.5 7.5
29 ZAGREB David Hayes 28 50.5 7.5
30 BOOK OF KELLS Bart Cummings 29 50 9
31 CAPECOVER (NZ) Alexander Fieldes 30 50 9.5
32 CHIEFCOMINGFIRST (NZ) Bevan Laming 31 50 9.5
33 DANDAAD (NZ) Bart Cummings 32 50 9.5
34 GET UP JUDE Diane Poidevin-Laine 33 50 9.5
35 GLISTENING (GB) Michael Moroney 34 50 9.5
36 LARGO LAD David Hayes 35 50 9.5
37 MAGIC INSTINCT (GB) Peter G Moody 36 50 9.5
38 MOATIZE Bart Cummings 37 50 8.5
39 SADDLER'S STORY Robbie Laing 39 50 9.5

[crash]

So, is Aidan O'Brien going to use his other two horse to set the pace up for
SEPTIMUS ? Well he knows that putting in horses as 'pacemakers' is illegal here but ... [?]

[maverick1993]

If it doesnt go against there normal race pattern of racing they really cant do a thing about it.
Loyd used Extend in the Turnball the same way.

I think alot depends on the track this year, I'm guessing the hose will be out and it will be a dead track at the very least. Heard theres supposed to be alot of rain around that might make it a slow or heavy.

Septimus does look a tough nut to crack but i'm really not sure he has the tactical speed ,,,he looks a one paced sort of a horse. If the plan is to lead or close to it at solid tempo with his stablemates running it along with him he might just ground them into the dirt..

Mad Rush in CC looked good but is this years Cup as good a form pointer to the MC as usual ? The blanket finish is a bit of a worry as is the slowish time.
Considering they ran along solidly and Barbaricus 3rd ??

All the Good will improve from the run atleast.

Nom Du Jue was good in the same race as was Viewed from the back.

I really liked Ce'st La Guerre's run in the Cox and he looks a though the distance will really suit. So will a rain affected track.

I havent much of an idea this year ,, But these are the 5 that are on the short list.

[tevez17]

If there's a bit of rain about I'll be all over C'EST LA GUERRE, Also hearing alot of good things about PROFOUND BEAUTY Septimus is giving it 7kgs,

[Chuck]

really not sure as of yet, all i know is that master o'reilly, efficient, and littorio won't win

[partypooper]

If that rain arrives look out for the "plums"

[schonegg]

It'll be worth looking at Littorio this Saturday if it can run on strongly. Before the Caulfield Cup 5th it was the hype horse after winning the Turnbull so well. Back to Flemington will suit.

[Sportz]

Efficient is out now.

[Horse Whisperer]

I agree schonegg littorio back at Flemington will suit to a tee. I think Nom Du Jeu is the one to beat though in the Cup

[Matilda]

Any reason why Gallopin cannot win? I cant see the reason except that he hasnt win above 2500m.

I like NOM DU JEU and Red Ruler. I think Red Ruler ran a good race in the CC do did NDJ.

[Raw Instinct]

Matilda regarding Red Ruler and I doubt I am the only one with this concern with him over 2 miles I really have concerns that he can really run out the trip.

I have had something on Nom Du Jeu already he was a great run in the Caulfield Cup I am somewhat surprised that the 1st 2 over the line have been sitting around the $13 mark for the best part of the last couple of weeks.

I'll have a bit more of a look at this race after the field has been announced and the barriers have been drawn by that time I should have been able to sit down and look at some form for the euros

[Sportz]

Looks like All The Good will be out now too.

[xanadu]

Does anyone believe that "team- riding" may be prominent in this year's Cup. One of the overseas trainers alluded to this when he stated that all of his stable representatives will be "hunted up" in search of prominent positions.
We'll just have to see what unfolds and what action, if any, is taken by the officials if such tactics are employed.

Cheers.

[tevez17]

Have no problem with it personally as long as it doesn't go against the horse/s in question natural style.

[Raw Instinct]

I couldn't care less to be honest if they go out and make it a true staying test atleast then the best stayer wins the race unlike what happens most weekends in races here where they walk for the 1st half of races and sprint home. Look no further than the Cox Plate last week that was criminal.

The only Thing I would be against is if they are taking out other horses intentionally in running then ofcourse there is an issue

[cairnspunter]

Is All The Good in or out?

[Raw Instinct]

No decision yet we will know by tomorrow night i would say

[Chuck]

well from what i'm aware, Septimus doesnt have great speed or a turn of foot, but has incredible stamina. so if the race is run at a good clip he's a big chance.

still not going to have my money though

[cairnspunter]

No decision yet we will know by tomorrow night i would say
If they decide to run him, the fact that he has been injured reduces his chances somewhat.

[xanadu]

posts7 & 10,
I think you're are on the right track fellahs.
All the best to you....!

Cheers.

[Silver_and_sand]

All the Good out of Melbourne Cup (http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/10/31/All_The_Good_out_of_Melbourne_Cup)

[maverick1993]

Watched the vids of the last couple of MC's ,,,Zipping did ok to run 4th as he was close to the lead both times,,,ridden with cover he might be the best of the Aussies ,,,seems to be a better horse this time in aswell..

If it rains Cest Le Guerre would be the one i'd be interested in ..

Mad Rush and Nom Du Juer still in the mix,,

[Chuck]

7-03.00 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP (3200 METRES)
Of $5500000 and $150000 trophies. 1st $3300000 and trophies of $125000 to owner $10000 to trainer $10000 to jockey $5000 to strapper, 2nd $835000, 3rd $420000, 4th $220000, 5th $150000, 6th $115000, 7th $115000, 8th $115000, 9th $115000, 10th $115000.
(GROUP 1).
No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 24
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 SEPTIMUS (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Johnny Murtagh 10 58.5 122
2 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien Vlad Duric 6 55 114
3 HONOLULU (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 24 54.5 1.0 115
4 C'EST LA GUERRE (NZ) John Sadler Brett Prebble 5 54 108
5 NOM DU JEU (NZ) Murray Baker Jeff Lloyd 1 54 112
6 YELLOWSTONE (IRE) Jane Chapple-Hyam John F Egan 12 54 110
7 ZIPPING John Sadler Danny Nikolic 16 54 115
8 MAD RUSH (USA) Luca Cumani Damien Oliver 4 53.5 112
9 ICE CHARIOT Ron Maund Michael Rodd 22 53 109
10 VIEWED Bart Cummings Blake Shinn 9 53 107
11 LITTORIO Nigel Blackiston Steven King 17 52.5 112
12 BAUER (IRE) Luca Cumani Corey Brown 13 52 1.0 106
13 BOUNDLESS (NZ) Stephen Mckee Greg Childs 20 52 106
14 GALLOPIN (NZ) Danny O'Brien James Winks 21 52 1.0 107
15 GUYNO (NZ) Lou Luciani Craig Newitt 8 52 101
16 ZARITA (NZ) Pat Hyland Dwayne Dunn 7 52 110
17 NEWPORT Paul Perry Chris Symons 15 51.5 1.5 105
18 PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE) Dermot K Weld Glen Boss 2 51.5 108
19 RED LORD Anthony Cummings Nicholas Hall (a) 14 51.5 104
20 VAREVEES (GB) Richard Gibson Craig Williams 23 51.5 105
21 PRIZE LADY (NZ) Graeme Sanders Mark Sweeney 18 51 104
22 ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 11 50.5 115
23 BARBARICUS Danny O'Brien Stephen Baster 3 50.5 104
24 MOATIZE Bart Cummings Clare Lindop 19 50 100

[maverick1993]

Not really sure the barrier draw matters all that much,,but Profound Beauty , Cest La Guerre , Mad rush drawn nicely..

[xanadu]

post22,
maverick1993...you could be on the right track there...plus...Septimus. We'll just have to see what happens on the day.
Haveagoodun.

[maverick1993]

thanks Xanadu but let me clairfy Zippings run last year,,,
he did race back in the field with cover,,seemed to resent the slowing of the race half way around,,he then took off probably 100m to early and gave himself a big task of rounding them up..
Rodd had the patience and peeled around him to surge past to win,,i think they might have bumped when he went past or it could have been a reminder of who the stable money was on ;)

Zipping kept finding the line though and hes the best of the Aussies now..

[rabbitz]

Had a quick look this morn'
Came up with a $210:eek: Tri

1st-1,5,7,8,18
2nd-1,4,5,7,8,11,14,18
3rd-1,4,5,7,8,11,14,18

This will be $42 for 20% if I decide to make a brief reappearance from retirement
Cheers

[diggo]

What do you fellas think of Prize Lady? She's won the 3200m Aukland Cup twice. No good on a dry track, but if it's slow on Tuesday I reckon she's a very real chance. I just can't work out the $150 odds, maybe I'm missing something?

[Makybe Diva]

What do you fellas think of Prize Lady? She's won the 3200m Aukland Cup twice. No good on a dry track, but if it's slow on Tuesday I reckon she's a very real chance. I just can't work out the $150 odds, maybe I'm missing something?

Auckland Cup generally isn't a strong form guide to the Cup. I think Bazelle won it in 2005 (I backed it in the cup e/w) and it barely beat a horse home.

[Makybe Diva]

Had a quick look this morn'
Came up with a $210:eek: Tri

1st-1,5,7,8,18
2nd-1,4,5,7,8,11,14,18
3rd-1,4,5,7,8,11,14,18

This will be $42 for 20% if I decide to make a brief reappearance from retirement
Cheers

Think you should include No. 23 Barbaricus ahead of Gallopin and Littorio. Just personal opinion though.

[crash]

Load up on Zipping for the place. Does it very consistently!

[reded]

Load up on Zipping for the place. Does it very consistently!yeah 4th place like the last 2 years

[crash]

He's on the improve after the Cox. Should get a 3rd. in the Cup this year!

[rabbitz]

Think you should include No. 23 Barbaricus ahead of Gallopin and Littorio. Just personal opinion though.

yeah thanks MD but i reckon he's stuffed from the front running in the mackinnon
so am prepared to risk
Of course i'll be waiting for the big punters on the forum to throw in their 2c
You know sportz,mav and ol vomits
Cheers

[Shaun]

Well my misses says 2,4,7 and like all once a year punters who just picks numbers they are your tri because she is as assy as they come.

[Chuck]

yeah thanks MD but i reckon he's stuffed from the front running in the mackinnon
so am prepared to risk
Of course i'll be waiting for the big punters on the forum to throw in their 2c
You know sportz,mav and ol vomits
Cheers

thanks mate :D

Just had a look and i reckon there's 3 winning chances - Septimus, Nom Du Jeu, and Mad Rush. i'm not keen on septimus but you just have to throw him in there with his credentials. I just can't split NDJ and MR, both put in great cup trials in the caulfield cup, i've backed MR at $13.50 so got some value there.

Of the others i've left out, i don't think MOR can stay the distance, and may struggle with this year's weight. I can't have Zipping, as Raw said about the cox, no doubt it will flash home for an eye catching fifth AGAIN. Don't think Littorio will stay, and is a non-winner anyway. I've heard Bauer's ordinary compared it its stablemate, so i'm ruling the geelong cup out as a guide.

I'll take the following tri

Septimus / Nom Du Jeu / Mad Rush

Septimus / Nom Du Jeu / Mad Rush / C'est La Guerre / Profound Beauty / Prize Lady / Barbaricus / Moatize

Septimus / Nom Du Jeu / Mad Rush / C'est La Guerre / Profound Beauty / Prize Lady / Barbaricus / Moatize


i've never like moatize, but it knows how to run a place. c'est la guerre has been set for this, and its close to a winning chance but i'm not sure its quite classy enough. barbaricus' last couple of runs have been great, not sure if it will stay but if it gets it own way (unliekly) it could last a while. i've thrown in prize lady purely because it can run a strong two miles, something not many of these can do

[Horse Whisperer]

i reckon you have more chance of getting the tri with a mystery pick lol.

Its such an open race, like every year i guess. Wouldnt be surprised if anyone of half the field won.

[crash]

I'll go for the top 2 for the win and include the rest for a Tri.
1. Nom Du Jeu
2. Septimus
3. Mad Rush
4. Honolulu
5. C'est La Guerre

[maverick1993]

Just been watching the Caulfield cup replays,,,i just cant believe Barbaricus hung on for 3rd..
I'm still suss on the form in this race ..he was in the carpark the 1st few turns and ran it solidly and still held them off down the straight,,

I know Barbaricus ran well Saturday,,but he did get beaten by Theseo ,,now if you were to go back a couple of months a say theseo and Barabaricus would fight out the McKinnon you'd would have been laughed off the forum..

So in the Caulfield Cup the backmarkers were entitled to run home,,,,Nom De Juer was good but she had a good run at them,,Mad Rush took the wrong option and he was going past some really slow horses at the end that made his run look even better but he know doubt should have gone close to beating them all in this race and if he had Noms run i think would have won comfortably......Littorio was average and Master O's run was ok ..

The form out of the Geelong Cup hasnt impressed me,,,Bauer atleast did it easily but dont forget he needed the win to qualify so is there much improvement ?? (in the same race Magic Instinct was alittle unlucky)

So i'm looking alittle outside these cups ,,Cest La Guerre was excellent his last start and just looks well improved a stack since being with Williams and Zipping is going better than last year...
The only probs with these two is i think the MC is an after thought,,Cest La Guerre was a next year horse but has just come along nicely and Zipping was a Cox plate horse or if he was going ordinary a MV Cup horse. Cest La Guerre was awsome in his Derby win leaving poor Nomy standing still ..Zipping has had excuses his last 2 Melbourne cup trys,,

Profound Beauty is something to watch,,hard to gauge her form but her track work is wow and the way she looks its hard not to like her,,Weld has bought a horse here that doesnt mind the firmer surface,,notice he isnt in the media whinging about watering the track blah blah and shes got no weight and a jockey that has good timing in this race ..

Ice Chariot's run in mckinnon was the good from the back,,,hes a place chance though at best as hes limited class wise.

Septimus looks dour to me but the stablemates will take off just as the tempo evens around the half way mark,,and Septimus will follow them and be carted into the race...not sure if the plan will work in such a big field but they'll ride the race together no matter what you hear the trainer say..
If it rains and the race becomes a slog fest then even with this weight he'll just grind them into the ground...Murtagh is a strong jock and he throws everything at the horse,,looks ungainly at times but theres no doubting he knows what it takes and if it becomes a fight then i want to be on the pom..

So it looks like i'm leaning towards the Williams pair , Profound Beauty and Mad Rush and Septimus,,
thats 5 on top lol
then the freak horse Barbaricus who doesnt know who his dad is to jag a place..with Honolulu (nice looking horse) and Yellowstone (why not) and Ice chariot and Bauer in for the 1st 4's,,

Chuck in your favourite colour and your favourite number and your 1st borns birthday and you might just jag an exotic :)

[crash]

From you know who about Barbaricus [good for a laugh]:


'A Class 3 chaff bandit from the O’Brien yard, so positive comments are forbidden. His only win in the last 15 months was when he beat Davcon in a photo at Moonee Valley on 28/9/07. Unfortunately he ran a place in the 2008 Caulfield Cup at 100-1 and that put most battlers’ trifectas and First 4s out of play. He ran another good race last Saturday, but in my mind he’ll always be a “chaff bandit”. I obviously missed the two important gear changes of “heart and double lung transplant on” and “oxygen mask on” - before his latest two runs. Fair dinkum – Barbaricus. I thought I’d been “called home” when he ran a place in a Caulfield Cup and God was cracking a joke, as he knew I enjoyed a giggle. “Follow the light” he said – so I did - and it led me straight to the lunatic asylum' Barbaricus.

[maverick1993]

Yellowstone is out !! makes you feel for the connections of the horses that just missed out,, Baughurst might have run a race against these..

Will have to put Nom De jeu in the mix now,,,and i like loyd on the horse,,he'll run over a few to get the horse into the clear as the barrier is a bit of a worry,,
but if the mexicans spread the field out with a good tempo he should find some daylight..

[Chuck]

Hey Maverick what are your thoughts re a speed map?

[Raw Instinct]

These scratchings are disgusting for this race for these 2 to be out of the race with so long left surely there is some way they can put in a couple of emergencies for this race, with the money on offer all the way back to 10th place it is disgusting for these horses to be scratched this far short of the event.

[people]

fellas, im new to this game but i might be of assisstance.
i know they are pretty well the favourites but heres my flexi tri havent worked out which placings as yet where:
1 septimus
2 profound beauty
3 mad rush
4 nom de jeu
5 barbaricus
6 honolulu
7 alassandro volta
the last pick there is one not to discount, known front runner from the UK. if the track gets heavy could hold on for a place!

[maverick1993]

Hey Maverick what are your thoughts re a speed map?

Hi People welcome..we mugs need all the help we can get :)

Ok Vomits

I have Barbaricus going forward but he'll let the visiters cross if they really want it,,,,,Alessandro Volta and Honolulu will try and go forward,,,Vareeves will do the same..i even think Boundless will try and go forward from out there,,really has no other chance but to get forward and stick on as hes no chance snagging back..

This gives Mad Rush a good possie behind the speed,,,Septimus will need some sort of cover but he'll be better than midfield,,,Cest La Guerre looks to get a nice run ,,,Profound Beauty will need some luck but i have her midfield on the fence so she'll hope she doesnt get stuck behind some of these slow ones in front..Bauer comes across from out there and will hope to get a good possie better than midfield..

All the others will be back and fighting for good possies,,Zipping will need luck but he'll have horses this time he can follow into the race..Nom De Jeu will need a stack of luck back there but the jockey is a nut so he'll find a way.

I dont see many surprises except i think Honolulu and Alexendra Volta will go forward,,if not str8 away but atleast at the 1/2 way marker ,,
Septimus i dont think has the speed to be handy but he'll look forward and latch onto the back of one his stablemates..
I hope Zipping is back trailing Nom De Jue because this will give him a good cart into it...

Cest La Guerre and Mad rush and Barbaricus get the best runs imo just ahead of Septimus and Bauer..

[Matilda]

Yellowstone is now scratched from the Cup.
Anyone for Red Lord?

[Matilda]

I am going for big Tri...

Spec, Mad, Zip, NDJ, Red, Bound, Gallop and Barba... 178...
Have to give Ice a miss....

[Matilda]

I am going for big Tri...

Spec, Mad, Zip, NDJ, Red, Bound, Gallop and Barba... 168...
Have to give Ice a miss....

[Raw Instinct]

As usual this is a tough race to sort out but here goes anyway

1. Septimus: He has a great record for a stayer but alot of it has come in small fields the only time he ran in a big field over a trip he was well beaten in the cerby by Sir Percy, He appears to be a horse that needs to be given alot of galloping room and a pretty one paced grinding type much in the shape of Yeats perfect for English conditions but you have to have a turn of foot to be in the finish in this race, From what I have seen he lacks that I know he won the St.Ledger by 13 lengths but the track was bottomless by all reports and they looked nothing more than glorified cockroaches chasing him. I concede him a place chance but I really doubt he can win this race personally.

2. Master O'Reilly: He is going well but I have my doubts he will run the trip out he couldn't do it last year with no apparent reason other than he may have gone over the top, I concede he could be a chance in the race he does have class but my doubts on him at the trip make it pretty hard for me to include him in my selections.

3. Honolulu: Another one of Aiden O'Briens one pacers by the look of him not a big fan of him although his run in the ebor last year behind Purple Moon would appear to give him a chance in the race. For mine recent form around horses like Geordieland, Distinction and Yeats just isn't good enough for mine to be challenging here think both he and Septimus would need this to be run at an amazingly fast pace to have any chance of pulling this off for mine no thanks.

4. C'est La Guerre: He hasn't had a chance to show his best since getting over here for team williams but he gets his chance in this race he is drawn beatifully and gets one of the best hoops in the world to steer his course. a bit of rain would have been a big bonus for him but there wasn't enough, I do still think he is capable on top of the ground and can really be in the finish with a great run just a matter of whether it is a year to early for him.

5. Nom Du Jeu: He has been my top selection for quite some time and I see no reason to jump off board, alot have questioned his NZ form but please take into account the jockey change which has happened of here he is atleast a 5 length better horse with Jeff Lloyd on his back IMO. Lloyd can really get every ounce out of a horse over the concluding stages and being drawn in might acutally help him from what I hear this morning the is a massive head wind in the straight and gives him the chance to try and get into a slip stream in the straight keeping cover behind other horses untill he needs to pull out and really go for them. My top pick as I said has been since his Derby win he is bred to run the trip on his ear with coupled with his form is enough for me.

6. Yellowstone: SCRATCHED

7. Zipping: He is in form I am happy to concede that but I can't have him he isn't giving me the impression that he is any better than he has been in previous years and he couldn't finish the race out then so I am happy to not be on him.

8. Mad Rush: Great run in the Caulfield Cup drawn beautifully in this with a proven cup jockey on it's back and IMO the best trainer in the world sending him out to top him off. He'll be hard to beat seems to be a very consistent horse always there or there abouts in the finish wouldn't want him at the odds being thrown around now and good luck to anyone who snared there good odds earlier. Definite hope this list is going to be long :)

9. Ice Chariot: This guy is absolutely flying right now in the best form of his career still I have doubts on him at this level at the trip he could place but I really doubt it top 10 finish is possible for sure.

10. Viewed: This guy needed the heavens to fall apart last night to be a winning chance he is going along solidly and is a place chance without rain however he would shock me a bit if he won the race but who knows how do you ever right off Bart completely in this race (how ironic would i be if Bart won his 250th group 1 in this race)

11. Littorio: I still don't mind this guy he is a big gangly horse needs galloping room and although his last run may have looked disappointing the typical crap sit and sprint races we are seeing so much these days just give him no chance in so many races. I maybe one of the few that doesn't have a big distance doubt on him good jockey on board and he might be the blowout horse if there is one in this race.

12. Bauer: I amnot a big fan of this bloke he might just whack away finish not far off them he just doesn't have the class of a few others.

13. Boundless: She isn't a bad horse but I amnot 100% convinced she wants this trip for mine I don't like her and she won't get consideration from me today.

14. Gallopin: he is a good horse I amnot convinced he wants 3200 he struggled to get past a horse in Baughurst last start who I feel struggles to run out 2500 if your on him good luck but I can't have him.

15. Guyno: Consistent horse this bloke he is always there abouts at the finish has only finished outside of the top 5 twice in his last 20 races and hasn't been beaten anymore than 4 lengths in that time he will just keep whacking away and if your looking for a roughie to include in 1st 4's he might be worth consideration at around $150-1.

16. Zarita: SCRATCHED

17. Newport: He is going along ok and will just keep whacking away should run a decent race but would have to doubt his class here.

18. Profound Beauty: I can't fault this horse at the weights she has been going well at home before coming out here and one of the few euros with a turn of foot, Dermot Weld knows what you need to win the cup out here and she really looks an enormous chance leave her out of your top selections at your own peril she really looks thrown in here.

19. Red Lord: Good luck but no thanks he isn't looking for this trip.

20. Varevees: I am sorry but this thing doesn't appear to going well at all most seem to think her best form was 2 years ago not today.

21. Prize Lady: Another one of these that looks like she'll just keep whacking away but really lacks the class to challenge here.

22. Alessandro Volta: I hear a few tipping this saying it is better than Mahler I don't agree and I can't have it good luck to anyone who is on it though.

23. Barbaricus: this guy is flying but the Lion Hunter thing is enough for me not to like him here I am sorry but if a Lion Hunter sired horse wins this race it would be amazing and unbelievable. Best of luck to all who are on but I can't have him even with the form.

24. Moatize: good luck to bart and claire but I can't have him

1. Nom Du Jeu
2. Profound Beauty
3. C'est La Guerre
4. Mad Rush
5. Littorio
6. Guyno (there is always a roughie there somewhere :) )

[Horse Whisperer]

Great summary Raw, cant dissagree with anything you have said there.

My Picks
Nom Du Jeu
Profound Beauty
Littorio
Cest Le Geure
Red Lord (like you say always one rough one in there :) )

[Merriguy]

Phew! Quite an effort, Raw.

Thanks and Good Luck.

[goldmember]

Big field,tough race,more selections, but i did jag the the 1st 4 in the cox plate (6 selections) using these ratings. only had a 10 % flexi, not being a big punter.

GOOD TRACK:

95 GALLOPIN
87 ZIPPING / MOATIZE
85 HONOLULU/NOM DU JEU/MAD RUSH/PROFOUND BEAUTY/ICE CHARIOT

others that just make my cut off for group 1"s:

80 BARBARICUS/SEPTIMUS/MASTER O'REILLY


These ratings picked trifecta and 1st 4 last year, but I put the pen through Efficient after his cox plate run, stupid stupid me!

[maverick1993]

To hard the race but the exotics are always to good to ignore...

On top
Mad Rush , Cest La Gurre , Profound Beauty, Barbaricus
Nom De Jeu , Zipping , Septimus
Honolulu , Bauer , Ice Chariot, Alessendro Volta , Newport
4 / 7 / 12 / 12

and still probably way off :)

Good Luck all :)

[people]

late mail for some solid outsiders/roughies:

Gallopin-set for this race
prize lady-won over trip must count for soemthing

race 2 number 9 also cheers

[dc]

1. Bauer
2. Ice Chariot
3. Gallopin
4. Barbaricus

but.... not confident at all.

[xanadu]

DANGER....DANGER...!!!
Just about every tipster has made No.8 Mad Rush their top choice(including the notorious "mock" of Sydney radio).
Can this topliner carry this enormous burden? We'll know just after 3.00p.m.A.E.D.T.
Good luck!

[banus]

anyone else getting on nom de jeu i put a bet straight on his nose.

[crash]

Viewed?

Well done Bart!

[xanadu]

post56,
no, it couldn't carry the burden.

Cheers.

[dc]

Im shatterred..... i think Bauer missed by a 1/4 of an inch..

but well done Bart.. your a legend..

[Matilda]

Anyone in this forum pick Viewed? I dont understand why his odds is so short at 40+ when his form is so bad!!!

My worst MC pick!!!

[partypooper]

Matilda, worse than that I backed it on Saturday!!!!!!!!! groan,.....

[Raw Instinct]

I hadn't written Viewed off totally didn't have anything on it did think it was massive overs compared to it's stable mate however, The run on saturday didn't really put me off him more what happened in the run all the way up the straight he was like a pinball between Rampant Lion and Princess Coup and was worried that he wouldn't back up from that more than anything.

If the track had a bit of rain on it I would have probably thrown $10 on him even if it was only dead just didn't like him with what looked to be a rock hard surface.

Here is the problem now guys it has happened 2 years in a row now where a so called outsider has won the race because of such a massive form reversal, Not necessarily the case for either year. The problem is the lead up races for the most part were run at such a farcical pace that everyone is left guess what might run the trip out and what might not you don't really get to see where the stamina really kicks in.

Personally all I did was pull even on the race with an E/W bet on C'est La Guerre who went out at ridiculos odds I feel Lloyd would not have paid up with him if they didn't think he was capable this year, so all was not lost on the race but still a disappointing result.

[crash]

Another dart job. I thought Viewed was way under considering all the hype about the 2 silly favorites and a few others.

Zoe and I have given up on trying to win money on the race. I think we had a 5% tri. for $5 and our usual one win bet each. I picked up the winner on r4 and zoe picked up winners on r5, r6 and r8! A good day overall.

[Sportz]

The funny thing is that Viewed won the Brisbane Cup brilliantly in the winter and Wayne Wilson mistakenly called it as Bart's 250th G1 win, forgetting that the race had been downgraded to G2 this year. Well, now here we are 5 months later and Viewed DOES give Bart his 250th G1 win.

Also ironic that when the Brisbane Cup was a 3200m race, it was a pretty awful guide to the Melbourne Cup, but the first year it's run over 2400m, it produces the winner. ;)

[Sportz]

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24601927-10389,00.html

What the jockeys had to say after the 2008 Melbourne Cup
November 04, 2008 02:26pm




BLAKE SHINN (VIEWED, 1st): "He was trained perfectly for the race and that was all important. The straight seemed to last forever. I thought I'd won on the line. I wasn't sure, I didn't want to go off too early after the line. I looked to the infield and they had the camera on Bauer so I thought I might be wrong. I was down when I missed the winning ride on Northern Meteor last Saturday (suspension) but this more than makes up for it."

COREY BROWN (BAUER, 2nd): "Shattered. Every chance. There's nothing more that I could have done. I reckon his run might have ended 25 metres out but, to his credit, the last two strides he really hit at the line, but it's not good enough. My biggest disappointment, no doubt."

BRETT PREBBLE (C'EST LA GUERRE, 3rd): "A super run, very strong. He pulled a bit. We couldn't get clear. He should have won."

VLAD DURIC (MASTER O'REILLY, 4th): "Got held up. Needed to get free and rolling a bit earlier. Probably would almost have won if I'd got the right breaks."

GLEN BOSS (PROFOUND BEAUTY, 5th): "She had a perfect run. We tracked the winner but when I asked her she really felt the ground."

CLARE LINDOP (MOATIZE, 6th): "Probably raced a bit too close. At the top of the straight he didn't let down as well as I thought he would. But he boxed on well to the line."

DAMIEN OLIVER (MAD RUSH, 7th): "Didn't quite stay the trip and came to the end of his run near the 200 metres."

JEFF LLOYD: (NOM DU JEU, 8th): "He over-raced but basically needed the rain. He's a bit of a keen horse but got to the line OK."

DANNY NIKOLIC (ZIPPING, 9th): "He ran terrific but I ran into all sorts of trouble behind Gallopin when he dropped back really quickly. He lost all momentum, probably lost five lengths there. He's got home and run ninth and probably run the best sectionals of the race. He was very unlucky."

CHRIS SYMONS (NEWPORT, 10th): "If he had drawn better he would have been closer. He got home as well as anything else. Went terrific."

MICHAEL RODD (ICE CHARIOT, 11th): "Ah, went well."

CRAIG NEWITT (GUYNO, 12th): "He probably ran up to his best."

STEVEN KING (LITTORIO, 13th): "No excuse, the two miles was too far for him."

CRAIG WILLIAMS (VAREVEES, 14th): "She just lacked a turn of foot."

GREG CHILDS (BOUNDLESS, 15th): "Had every chance."

NICHOLAS HALL: (RED LORD, 16th): "He'll be a better horse next year but he got the trip OK."

MARK SWEENEY: (PRIZE LADY, 17th): "She just didn't see it out."

JOHNNY MURTAGH (SEPTIMUS, 18th): "He might not be the horse for the race. When they got into the straight he just stopped."

STEPHEN BASTER (BARBARICUS, 19th): "Just didn't stay on the day.'

WAYNE LORDAN (ALESSANDRO VOLTA, 20th): "Travelled well but wouldn't let down. Maybe the track was too firm but he's still only a three-year-old and I think he'll be back."

COLM O'DONOGHUE (HONOLULU, Last): "The ground was too quick for him.

JAMES WINKS (GALLOPIN, Failed to finish): "Couldn't breathe. I had to pull him up ..."

[Sportz]

JOHNNY MURTAGH (SEPTIMUS, 18th): "He might not be the horse for the race. When they got into the straight he just stopped."

Well, what a surprise. Who would have thought that would possibly happen when you went at such a suicidal pace? :rolleyes:

Seriously, what were those idiots thinking?

[Stix]

Read in today's paper they were just outside the time for the Hip's Don't Lie race for the first 1000m of the race.... 58.5sec vs 57.8 (or something to that effect!) :eek:

[luv2bet]

hows this,
a good friend of my sister in law knows jack about horses, only bets occasional first fours has jagged the first 4 3 times for an outlay of $72!!! 1.6 mill... she said she just liked the names

[xanadu]

post13,
I was concerned this may be a negative aspect in the running of our greatest race.
What about the tactics employed by the overseas visitors...?
The officials certainly "hauled" the aaaaa trainer in for a "please explain?"
However, I feel there is a "sense of arrogance" displayed by some of our guests whereby they may feel they "are doing us a favour" to appear in our premier racing event.
The race and all it's history is bigger than that!

Cheers.

[xanadu]

post13,
It has been a fairly controversial Cup this year with the tactics employed by some overseas runners and the form displayed by Viewed leading into the running of the great race.

Cheers.

[crash]

Typical arrogance. Over-rated horses and over-rated trainer and jocks. Didn't have a clue how to win this race!

[maverick1993]

wow how good was my speed map ,,the only thing i got right in the race..

Vieweds form was sound,,his CC run was very good,,,and inclusive in the Mackinnon after Rampant lion smashed him..

I just assumed he was a wet tracker,,,,doh,,

Poor Zipping unlucky,,,probably his last chance,,didnt he come home well..
Cest la Guerre will be winning some nice races..and the poor mexicans will have to go back to the drawing board..