Place Bets

[Michal]

Hi All,

I would like some advice, have been testing a system for a while and while its going quite well for win the place strike rate is above 80% . This averages about 2 bets a day.

What could I do and where could I do it to capitalise on this as well? I looked at betfair and place bets are certainly not worth the trouble , the odds on offer is mostly way under the TAB odds. Even betting using QLD TAB it has 19% POT.

I have never thought of betting places but it seams like a worthwhile investment to run separately from the win bets, so I would appreciate some advise from those that bet places.

Michal

[partypooper]

Michal, 80% S/R and 19% POT is fantastic. Whilst I can manipulate my plan to achieve 80% S/R ,the number of bets diminishes dramatically as does the average divi, and my POT stays around 4%. So I go for the better turnover.

In your case I would have a look at how the plan has fared say over at least 2 years if that is possible, but I would still only bet at level stakes. If you get bored you could run a seperate bank of 5 units and bet 20% never reducing, always stop if there is insufficient funds to place that last bet, and start again with a 5 unit bank.
This will give a lot of fun, and some interesting winning runs, with very little damage should you hit a bad run. But remember only on a small scale, keep your main bets at level stakes.

[Michal]

Thanks Party,


Unfortunately I cant test back for more then about 2 months, all I can do is go forward. I have live tested for 3 days for 9/10 the only looser having ran last LOL. The average div is $1.45 using QLD TAB.

I remember that we had some discussion here before about place betting and where the best is. I have discovered that it isnt Betfair. For instance today my 2 winning bets were 1.48 on betfer and lowest TAB was 1.6
the other was much the same, and on top of that I also have to pay 5% for the privelage of getting the lowest divs.

I am hopeing that the system will continue to produce .

Thanks for the advice , I thought that it would be a good way just getting the straight bets , I do know that some people risk doubles and triples and so on , I just had 9 in a row, boy that would be something havoing something that acumulates them perhaps someone has some experiance with that?

Michal

[partypooper]

Michal, I always considered Betfair as the proverbial "free lunch" and so have never gotten into it, (I could easily be wrong)

Past results, well as we all know backfitting isn't really the way to go but once you have a plan that you are working; it can indicate what you are likely to expect.

As far as long winning runs are concerned, yes it does happen fairly regularly with place betting but in nearly 5 years I can tell you that I've tried every which way to improve the profit by staking plans, you name it I've tried it, and the end result was that if you took the total amount bet and divided it by the total number of selections, and applied *that* at level stakes over the same selections; the resulting level stakes POT remained the same as normal flat level stakes (though you may have increased stakes on average).

[Michal]

Party,


Thanks for that, I'll take your word as I know that that is your speciality. New only remains to ask where do I bet, TAB ? and which one or are there some corporate bookies that look kindly upon such a strike rate? :)

Michal

[partypooper]

Michal, I am told there are alternatives but; I and *several members of my family* have various accounts, so I tend to switch the bets around a bit. But I always bet best tote (i.e.) best of 3 for Metro meets, otherwise for Country I bet half at unitab and half at country best (i.e. best of NSW & Supertab), this gives the best average.

I don't like the IAS one personally as *guarentee to beat at least 2 totes* sounds great , but say one pays $1.04, another pays $1.10c, and the other pays $1.40 (happens a lot) then they will pay you say, $1.11c and have fulfilled their promise, but you dip out badly.

I have to admit I have been a bit lazy looking for alternatives (or kinda gave up) as there always seemed to be a catch. Just recently I received a circular from Best Divi dott comm dott au offering to BEAT 3 totes which I was very interested in but have not been able to find out who they are or even if it is genuine or what.

If you do find any better deals than Sporstbet or Sportingbet I would be very interested.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michael,
One method to capitalise on ones place bets is to divide ones bank by say 13

Now divide the price of the horse into that base figure.

e.g. bank $1000 / 13 = 77 Base amount.
Divide horses price into this base amount
If paying $1.30 / 77 = 59.23 O/L = Ret 77

If paying $2.30 / 77 = 33.47 O/L = Ret 77

What this does, it places more on the lower priced runners & less on the longer priced runners.
You probable already observed that it seems like the shorter priced horses tend to dominate.

These fractional amounts are easily catered to with Betfair by using one of the free betting tools such as Race Trader Pro. which gets under the Betfair min.

I have found Betfair prices in general , are better than the TABs.
Also one can calculate ones bets to return & not rely on the TAB price which could be seen as a lottery as to what ones div is going to be.

If the price on Betfair is a lot lower than the TAB , you can almost guarantee its going to run a place.

You will see over 100 bets, that the returns are usually greater with this procedure.

Cheers.

[Michal]

Hi Bhagwan,


I have writen my own betfair bot , and it bets sub $5 limit I can also program it to do what you suggest. As I havent had much experiance betting place when is the most commonly best time to bet on the place? Seams like the price isnt as good when ever I had a look.

The staking plan you suggest basicaly is betting to a take out figgure ? Correct ? I will give that a try with the results I have and see what the difference is.

Thanks for your help

Michal

[Michal]

Hi Bhagwan,

Yep, it certainly makes a difference.

Much appreciated.

It is sad that this can only be done on betfair, where the liquididty on place bets isnt that great at all.

Michal

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michal,
That's right Michal, one is betting to price which is not accurate if using the TABs system due to fluctuations.

Oddly enough the best price for place betting seems to be around the 1-2 min mark & not at the close as one would suspect , strange when one considers that the market usually settles more in the last 30 secs.

One thing I always do if wanting to know if your trusty steed is value or not..
. Look at your horses live win market price

.Convert the price to fractional odds.

.Divide this fractional win price by 4

.Add +1 to the fractional price answer .

.You now have the Fair Place Price you horse should be before one bets on it .

If the market is paying the same or more than this ,it is considered fair value.

Cheers.

You are right about the liquidity, but if everyone talks about the possibilities of the Betfair place market ,like we are doing now , that can only help encourage more people to bet with it, once they know the advantages & some of the techniques that can be introduced to help squeeze a profit .
Techniques & tricks that cant be used on the TAB system.

What Betfair place market needs is more people to do Place Lay betting to help frame the market & help get it within the 300% market range.

One trick I use is to frame a 305-310% Lay market to show a profit no matter which horse wins.
This can be done on certain races with good liquidity liquidity.

[Michal]

Thanks for that .


However NEVER AGAIN on BETFAIR. Just today in 5 bets I got stiffed in over $2 worth of profit betting $1 on each horse. That is taking the LOWEST TOTE against the best on betfair. No thanks, one was an absolute dozzy $2.4 ws $1.56 best and I got $1.49 actually. AND on top of that I got the privelage of paaying 5% for the privelage which I didnt even count in this robery.

Betfair ??? Thanks but no thanks. I also noticed lately that the win prices are getting shorter, I give my tips to my mom and she bets best tote, I get $4.2 - 5% and she gets $5 ...... and this isnt an isolated event. Now that I stoped testing and Im starting to put bets on that count Im getting done, well no one is doing anything to me Im letting the percentages roll away which isnt the way to make a profit.

Michal

[wesmip1]

Can I assume the races for the places were horses that ran 2nd or first and the tabs only paid out 2 places ? ie NTD ? Betfair woiuld have paid out if your horse had run 3rd as well. So in the unlikely case it ran third you would have still woin whereas on the totes you would have lost.

People usually get upset of this but are not exactly checking how many placings are being paid out.

If it was a race with at least 8 runners ... well then you got stiffed.

Good Luck.

[Michal]

Wesmip,


The really big discrepancy you are correct it was in a 7 field race. Are you telling me that in a 7 field race they still pay out on third div? If that is the case I didnt know that in which case I am a bit less chesed of as those would have been fairly fair divs for 3 place getters.

Michal

[Merriguy]

If you touch one of the buttons on the place screen (back or lay) the site immediately indicates how many places will be paid. Has something to do with when starters are scratched as I understand it.

The other thing I feel you should think about is that you do not have to accept the price indicated. If the race is showing "Hairy Legs" at $1.80 for the place, you can indicate (say) $2.02 and you might be surprised how often it will be taken up. It depends a lot on when you are placing your bets --- and sometimes, of course, it will not be taken up; but you can change the bet right up until the time of the off. (It would be so much simpler if they provided some sort of count down clock as many of our tote sites do.)

[moeee]

The tote facility at Betfair has a clock that is usually a minute or so behind REAL Time.
Many times I've lost good winners because of that darn clock made me late getting my last minute bet on.
I have saved money on occasions as well, but the terrible feeling of not backing a winner is terrible and pretty much ruins the whole day.

The Betfair people said they have no control over when the race starts, but I didn't query them about that.
The people that man the query lines are just people and not well trained in the information.

[wesmip1]

Wesmip,


The really big discrepancy you are correct it was in a 7 field race. Are you telling me that in a 7 field race they still pay out on third div? If that is the case I didnt know that in which case I am a bit less chesed of as those would have been fairly fair divs for 3 place getters.

Michal
Well yes in some cases. If the race had 8+ starters before scratchings then yes it is gong to pay out places. If it only ever had 7 or less runners then it pays out 2 places. Easiest way is to check the Rules for each market and it will tell you for that race.

good Luck.

[Bhagwan]

Hi M,
That time difference can be fixed by adjusting your computer clock by one minute or so.

Time remaining is usually compared to ones computer clock.
So adjust accordingly.

Another way to see if either 2 or 3 placings are going to be paid, is to look at the market percentage at the top.
If its showing 200%+ means only 2 placings
300%+ means 3 placing being paid.

And in some very large races like they have in the UK 400% for 4 placings

Cheers.

[Steve M]

Some interesting posts here regarding place betting which is what I went through sometime back when investigating place betting.

Since Jan have successfully punter the place. Lower strikerate than yourself Michal but higher div. So basically backing longer priced horses.

The question of where to bet the place is an important one as it determines your method of staking. Fixed price versus tote price.

In case you're not aware of the Aust link Betfair (http://ads.betfair.com/redirect.aspx?pid=8398&bid=1978) is a good place to be checking past results and comparisons on raceday. And the advice is to spend time researching where you best price is and how to find it. Even if you can't backtrack your selection method at least have a look at those similarly priced horses in the market to see where the better price is generally obtained.

I agree the price seems to be at it's optimum around 1-2 mins prior to the jump, but the lack of a decent pool, esp for longer priced horses, on non Saturday turned me off.

I wanted to setup unattended betting via a bot but as mentioned issues with timing, jumptime etc ended up losing me. At least on weekday meets when I can't be watching betfair.

There are bookmakers who you can bet with placeabet.com.au/ but generally you have to find somone in the state/s you want to bet. Advantage of a bookmaker is that you're a better chance of getting a fixed odds bet on if you intend to base your staking around a certain price - which I initially wanted but found to many complications.


Best of three totes does seem the best via Sportsbet, Betchoice, Betstar etc.

I've freely plugged the thestakingmachine.com/ it gives you some free plans to look at - but you can also cheaply purchase their betting tool which lets you run your bets through the tool to analyse which method provides the best chance of success.

Best of luck