Calling the Mathematicians

[Jack]

I want to back 4 selections in the same race BUT have 2 for savers and the other 2 as plunge runners. For example if I want to outlay 50 units per race and my selections are 4.00 25%, 4.60 22%, 5.00 20%, 6.50 15%, but to outlay 82% is odds on and to outlay greater than 50% is simply crazy. But what if I take the 5.00 20% and 6.50 15% as plunge runners = 35% and only have savers on the 4.60 and 5.00 runners so that if the plunge runners win I am in profit and if the savers win then the outlay of 50 units is returned no profit no loss.

One method of return is to divide the total predetermined outlay of 50 units by the odds of each runner, add these up, then divide this into the 50 unit outlay, giving the ratio to multiply the odds of each runner to bet and returns a profit if any of the 4 win. (is easy to work out on an ordinary calculator but this is NOT WHAT I WANT). I WANT to know how do I calculate 2 for savers with 2 for plunges as in a 50 unit total bet outlay. What is the formula for this and how do I calculate it ?????????

Edited. Bold type for your entire text is "shouting."
Moderator.

[Shaun]

You said your own answer in the second part of that thread, for the first part just divide the price by 50 for the savers gives you.

$50/$4.60 = $11
$50/$5.00 = $10



This leaves you $29 to invest on the other 2 chances you could split the money on each or work out percentages but remember there has to be enough left over after your svaers to make a profit from the winners so price could be a factor.

[partypooper]

Jack, I can't answer your question, but I hope someone can as I have one plan that requires 3 bets per race, using the fav as the stake saver, it's kinda a guess but I tend to bet 2 units on the fav /(shortest price), 2 units on the 2nd fav/(next longest price) and 1 unit on the longest price. eg. 2-1. 4-1, 10-1 so 2,2,&1, shows about evens if the 4-1 or the 10-1 wins and still a slight profit if the fav wins.

[crash]

You said your own answer in the second part of that thread, for the first part just divide the price by 50 for the savers gives you.

$50/$4.60 = $11
$50/$5.00 = $10



This leaves you $29 to invest on the other 2 chances you could split the money on each or work out percentages but remember there has to be enough left over after your svaers to make a profit from the winners so price could be a factor.

The whole bet in total bets in most cases will be very poor odds unless aiming at long shots. A very high win SR will be required to make a profit and Jack will probably be stuffed by the the amount of races where no bet wins.

Backing the top 5 for instance will produce 80% winners but will make a loss, not a profit.

[jfc]

A: 4.00 25% Save
B: 4.60 22% Save
C: 5.00 20% Plunge
D: 6.50 15% Plunge

Outlays on Savers:

A: 12.50 = 50 * 25%
B: 11.00 = 50 * 22%

leaving 26.50 to be outlaid on plungers.

C: 15.1 = 26.50*20/(20+15)
D: 11.4 = 26.50*15/(20+15)

So win 25.30 on Plungers

[Crackone]

Jack this excel spread sheet will do it for two selections you might be able to modify it.

Cheers

[jfc]

A: 4.00 25% Save
B: 4.60 22% Save
C: 5.00 20% Plunge
D: 6.50 15% Plunge

Outlays on Savers:

A: 12.50 = 50 * 25%
B: 11.00 = 50 * 22%

leaving 26.50 to be outlaid on plungers.

C: 15.1 = 26.50*20/(20+15)
D: 11.4 = 26.50*15/(20+15)

So win 25.30 on Plungers



The formula for outlays on the A & B Savers is easy.

But there is a general formula for the proportions to outlay on the plungers.

Enter their odds in column A.

And get the proportions with this expression:

=HARMEAN(A:A)/COUNT(A:A)/A1

[Mancunian]

G'day Jack,
I haven't much of a maths brain so I use Dutch Book software (free).
which appears to allow for more than one saver.
Using your example I put in
#1 - 4.60 (saver)
#2 - 5.00 (saver)
#3 - 4.00
#4 - 6.50
Bet amount $50 and the calculation it gave me was -
#/Outlay/Return/Profit :
#1/$11/$50/0
#2/$10/$50/0
#3/$18/$72/$22
#4/$11/$72/$22
I find this the easy (albeit lazy) way to do it - but I need my computer.

Cheers......Mancunian

[Jack]

A big thank you everyone for your response. I knew that I was not nobbled but simply needed to see the wood and not the trees.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Mancunian,
Can you say where the free software for multiple savers can be found .
Without showing the full site address so it can be Googled as per forum rules.

Hi Jack,
One idea that works very well is to split the remaining bet to profit 60/40
60% on the shorter of the 2 horses & 40% on the remainder..

This is done after you have done the calculations on your savers.

Cheers.

[place2win]

Hi Baggs,

you could try PUNTING on the river with an A C E up your sleeve
then put a DOT in the COMmunity

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for that P.
I found the Punting aaa site, but I notice that my Spyware Terminator program comes up with a warning ,which is telling me it has spyware loaded in it.

Which is a shame that mobs still do that sort of thing.

Thankyou for that anyway P.

Cheers

[Mancunian]

Hi Mancunian,
Can you say where the free software for multiple savers can be found .
Without showing the full site address so it can be Googled as per forum rules.

Hello Bhagwan, if you were to google horse racing software you may need a net to catch it - probably second page. (coms aren't as good as nets). let me know if you get it or not.......Manc

[place2win]

Thanks for that P.
I found the Punting aaa site, but I notice that my Spyware Terminator program comes up with a warning ,which is telling me it has spyware loaded in it.

Which is a shame that mobs still do that sort of thing.

Thankyou for that anyway P.

CheersSorry to here that baggs I too have spyware terminator but no warning
for this site will do a further check (although McFee gives it a clean bill)
Regards

[Management]

Bhagwan, we do not believe the reputable site you are referring to would intentionally load spyware. Another poster has indicated that the site is clean, as we would expect it to be.

However it is always possible, this site included, however unlikely, that an infected file could be loaded to the site by someone who normally loads files to the web site should their computer be infected and the infection not picked up by virus/spyware/adware scans.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for that guys .
Since you guys have mentioned that it is OK.
I have since run another program over it & it indicates that it is clean.

I have the Spyware Terminator shield activated & I guess it didnt recognise the site as OK ,so maybe it was confused as to what it was.

I will down load it again.

Thanks once again.

Cheers.

[stebbo]

Hi Bhagwan,

I can assure you that the program does not contain any spyware. At least the version I downloaded from there doesn't. I know the problem, it was a known false positive at the time and I'm surprised that it still triggers as spyware.

I have used that program myself on many occasions without any trouble at all.

Cheers,
Chris.

[Bhagwan]

I have since dowloaded it & its a beauty.

Thank again guys for the feed back & thank P for the site.

Its very difficult to find free Dutching calculators with a multiple saver function.


Cheers