Apprentices and how they affect results

[monojoker]

Looking at some Dutching methods and I wondered how you would go about analysing results that include apprentices. It's not like a single selection per race system where you can look at simply whether the jockey on the selection was an (A) or not. I thought of simply indicating if the selection system failed were any or all the jockeys (A) but that doesn't really work as it may punish the system unfairly.

How do others view apprentice jockeys in their analysis or selection systems? Interested to hear some opinions.

Cheers.

[crash]

It would be very difficult to work out if an app. contributed greatly to any particular loss or win in a way that could be reduced to +/- for a system. There is some very good app. around and like the top jocks, they have their share of good and bad rides. Some systems and form students ignore app. weight claims with the logic that their lesser experience and strength cancels out the weight claim advantage. A bit of a blunt rule if it's applied to all app. in all races at all distances.

[Stix]

All I can say is include them......I do.

[xanadu]

Generally, in my form-study I usually eliminate horses ridden by 3kg apprentices and that includes female riders.
Of course there are exceptions to the rule like D. Ganderton today and champions like D. Oliver & Co. in the past when the astute punter could benefit by the advantage provided by these champion claiming apprentices.
Imo they generally lack the horsemanship to evaluate how a race is to be run and when to employ the necessary tactics to allow their mount to be in the finish.
I have watched a number of races today where the female jockey(s) have allowed themself to be "boxed in/pocketed" and when they became extricated hit the horse with all the power of a feather-duster!
Would you let an apprentice "sparkie," painter, bricklayer do work on your cherished home.......I think not...you want an experienced "tradesman!"

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

I will go to a 1.5 kg Claiming apprentice but no more.

Cheers.
darcy.

[crash]

When doing form, I evaluate every app. ride on a case by case [race by race] basis after taking into account likely race pace, barrier position, track condition etc. Sometimes an app. can be a good trainer move [not 4kg. app. claimers] and sometimes not. I do generaly avoid them on young horses, but one thing for sure, app. are VERY keen to win!

[xanadu]

post4,
I always give credit when it is deserved.
Accordingly, I do not include Sally Wynne in my comments as she rode a very vigorous race(that's all we ask for) in:
MR6 5 Royal Sandhurst 2nd $3.1plNSW
which provided me with a 158.33%POT!
Many thanx.

[tevez17]

Almost always bet on a top weight if it's got a claiming Ap on it.

[JoeF]

As a general rule I have found an Apprentice is a bit of a disadvantage in races longer than 1600m, as opposed to sprints.
The logic being that they do not as yet have enough polish to be able to calculate pace. (maybe those pommie jocks were apprentices)

[Stix]

All I can say is include them......I do.Qualify that by saying....include them only at Metro Meetings. I rarely bet elsewhere.

Usually the kids that can ride will get a go in town, unless the senior jockeys have been sucked to a intertsate carnival or a night meeting (like tonight R8 @ MV) and you get 3-5 in one race.

[stebbo]

Almost always bet on a top weight if it's got a claiming Ap on it.

All top weights (not just tab 1) in handicap races 1st Jan 2007 to 31st Oct 2008.

23,155 selections, selection S/R of 16.3%, POT -19.0%.
non claiming jockeys : 16,320 selections, selection S/R of 17.2%, POT -17.7%
claiming jockeys : 6,835 selections, selection S/R of 14.1%, POT -22.1%

[xanadu]

You need look no further than:
KemblaR4
a certain horse missed the start and was ridden hard to keep in touch and was finishing on to the line but could not win or run a place.
I wonder how a senior rider would have ridden it?
One of my favourite sayings is: "all butchers don't necessarily work in a butcher-shop!"

Cheers.

[Stix]

You need look no further than:
KemblaR4
a certain horse missed the start and was ridden hard to keep in touch and was finishing on to the line but could not win or run a place.
I wonder how a senior rider would have ridden it?
One of my favourite sayings is: "all butchers don't necessarily work in a butcher-shop!"

Cheers....happens to the best of them too.... (a-la the Fisho thread!)