Quitting while your ahead

[thorns]

What are peoples thoughts on quitting for the day oncce you are ahead? I am currently testing a method over the past few months and am considering this approach. It is reasonably high turnover and is showing a healthy return on both the place and win, however it is a time consuming method which requires watching totes all day and betting as late as possible, which seeing as my student days are about to end is not realistic. So the thought of stopping for the day once a certain target has been reached is appealing so that I dont have to sit in front of the computer all day. I remember an old member on these forums who had that approach of getting his one unit of profit and quitting for the day, or if he went three units down for the day quitting, and to be honest that idea has always appealed to me.

So what are peoples thoughts on teh idea, and wether its a good strategy, or a bad strategy.

[Chrome Prince]

Statistically, it should make no difference.
Sometimes you'll be giving away potential profit, sometimes potential loss.
But that's statistically - there is no advantage.

Reality is a whole other ballgame.
There is the inclination to chase losses, false "bravado" when hitting a winning patch.
Stress or panic resulting in deviation from the original plan.

If you're a rigid and disciplined punter, I'd say don't quit - there really is no advantage.
If any of the above applies, then definitely quit while ahead or down.

Tomorrow's another day ;)

[Bhagwan]

I have found many times, that it is best to quit once bank is up by 5% for the day.

Its amazing how often the 5% is reached , then give it all back in the second half of the day.

I feel its not a bad option to take.

If one is using a selection system that breaks even betting everything, will usually find that it has some good wins in the beginning of the day & by stopping at 5% increase on bank , may protect the profits from being given all back again.

On paper it should not make much difference , but in reality I have found that its best to stop , that,s the hard bit.

Cheers.

[crash]

What are peoples thoughts on quitting for the day oncce you are ahead? I am currently testing a method over the past few months and am considering this approach. It is reasonably high turnover and is showing a healthy return on both the place and win, however it is a time consuming method which requires watching totes all day and betting as late as possible, which seeing as my student days are about to end is not realistic. So the thought of stopping for the day once a certain target has been reached is appealing so that I dont have to sit in front of the computer all day. I remember an old member on these forums who had that approach of getting his one unit of profit and quitting for the day, or if he went three units down for the day quitting, and to be honest that idea has always appealed to me.

So what are peoples thoughts on teh idea, and wether its a good strategy, or a bad strategy.

Races are not connected, but emotionally a lot of punters act as if they are.

If sticking to a well considered betting plan like % of bank per bet etc. there is no reason to bail out unless a punter starts chasing loses with irrational betting or hasty selections on the run. Sound reasoning suggests selections and bets should be pre-planed for the day as best as possible and win or lose the plan should be followed through. The plan should also include betting decisions [bet or no bet] to cover any change of track conditions or poor odds.

In my view, a decision to abandon betting based on reaching a small profit at some point in the day [if it happens at all], is abandoning a planed rational approach to punting. Of course abandoning betting at the first bit of profit could be the plan, but what I see wrong with it is that the punter doesn't stop while losing [stopping after say 3 loses makes no sense as the 4th bet might be a winner and/or the next days 1st. bet is just the next bet anyway], which can obviously lead to big loses and tiny profits :-)

[Chrome Prince]

Too true!

The other danger I forgot to mention, was staking.
If a punter is using a staking plan, as crash suggests, the punter is always staking more on losing bets, by stopping at a winner on the day.

If level stakes, it should end up the same in the longrun, just less profit or loss at the end.
The main problem, is that most profitable methods derive their actual profit from a very small percentage of the overall bets. One could be missingout on that profit by stopping.

IE
Bet day 1 minus 5 units
Bet day 2 minus 1 unit
Bet day 3 plus 3 units
bet day 4 plus 6 units

Overall plus 3 units.

But on day 4 you only bet until plus 3 units and stopped

Instead of 3 units profit for the week, you are only square.

Just an example.

[crash]

Good example Chrome. Anyone betting on emotionaly biased maths is a timid speculator, not a punter who has done and understands the true maths. Stopping at a profit and staying ahead from that point means the punter must give up the punt, as the next day's 1st. bet is always just the next bet, not an unconnected new mathematical dawn [lol, lol]!

[Fryingpan]

Do you love to punt or do you love to make a profit?

Sometimes if you are recreationally inclined (in whatever way that may mean) you might just like the punt. And so the excitement is the main game. So be it, and punt away.

If you want to make a profit, a profit is a profit. And if you are ahead you have a profit. Can you guarrantee that you will keep the profit by continuing? (and that means making a profit is a daily ritual a daily target a daily habit) Once ahead, it might mean going over your selections again, and re-assessing whether you have more or better bullets to fire off at the later races......

Making that all important decision to continue. Or whether that walk with the dog or the job in the shed looks like a good treat.

If you aren't making that decision and you just carry on, then you are sort of a robotic punter in for the punt. And then the topic really doesn't matter.

Because everyone looks at their pile/kitty after a good win and counts their winnings. It's enjoyable being ahead early or later. So I think this is more about whether you have the ability to make a decision and not entirely about having a strategy.

To make any decision needs an emotional component. And that's a skill in itself when the prices are hypnotically chanted on the radio over and over, the next race is running and the race callers are going "OHHHH photo.."

[crash]

'Making a profit' needs context. Profit for a day or more importantly over 12mths.? A punter who has selected say 6x$10 bets for the day and is ahead say $20 by bet 2 and doesn't decide to take the dog for a walk instead of continuing with the other 4 bets, is a 'robotic punter' [brainless in other words]?

Without being able to see into the future, there is no way to know if a selection is going to win or not and making a reassessment of selections while the action is on, is not a good move and implies poor initial assessment before the action for the day starts.

Next day the 'smart' punter who did take the dog for a walk the day before [even though 2 of his next 3 chosen bet selections won while the dog was enjoying himself and the punter didn't bet them], still hasn't won a 'profit' by bet 3 and has lost $30 so far, now decides to call it quits or does he keep betting? A reassessment of the next 3 bets to decide the issue?
In context, the punter's $20 profit from the day before is now a $10 loss unless daily losses or profits have no meaningful relationship, as a 'profit is a profit' and any day of loss, doesn't count[?]