Favs. dissected

[partypooper]

Would anyone help out with some research I'm attempting to do long hand which is proving to be very tedious.

Basically just splitting favs into Handicaps and non Handicaps, and then disecting into catagories eg.

2YO, 3yo, Maiden Races, then into distances say 1200 and LESS, 1201-1399, 1400 to 1600, 1601 to 1999, over 2000.

Then possibly adding some other factors such as last start finishing position, days since run etc etc.

Obviously what I am attempting to establish is where to concentrate my betting especially as I bet for the place.

EG. maybe I should be looking at say,

The Fav. in Non Handicaps, 8-12 runners, (with at least 5 career starts)
Placed 1,2,or3 and within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start (within 21 days)
Races 1201-1999 metres only
Metro Races only (7 days)
50% + Place record
Rated 97+ (unitab)
Delete 3kg claimers.

NOTE EXAMPLE ONLY, I don't have enough data to qualify that yet, but if anyone is prepared to run it through their box of tricks it would be appreciated.

[Chrome Prince]

Partypooper,
That's a fairly big project to do.
I just don't have the time to help you with the mad rush towards Christmas and a server that decided to burn itself out.
However, there'd be no point to my post if I couldn't offer something ;)

As you bet for the place, and usually fancied runners, here's something.

Horse must be first or second favourite
Do NOT bet on 2 or 3 year old horses - they are overbet too much when favourite
Last start winners
Within 7 days.

At TAB prices this returns only 1.13% loss on turnover for the place, with a 62.28% place strike rate.

Betting Top Fluctuation or fixed price with a bookie is most certainly a profit spinner.

cheers.

[partypooper]

Chrome, thanks for the feedback, yes I guess it is a pretty big ask.

Your idea looks interesting "MORE" research hahah! anyway what I'm after with the other thing is a lot more action, I've got one faithful place plan that has ticked along for over 4 years, but not enough action, so that's why I was looking more to 7 days, anyway I'll carry on long hand in the meantime , so far I haven't seem much difference in S/R reagrdless of race type, though as you say 2 and 3yo don't look too good and also Fillies and mares races.

[Chrome Prince]

I may be able to help out more after Christmas...I still owe Stix a report on scratched horses also.
But the world has gone mad with pre holiday rush.
I feel like a mouse on one of those wheels :eek:

2yo's are far too overbet, the bulk of them come from popular stables with popular jockeys and rumours abound about potential.
While many of them win, few live up to potential and even less are value.

[Sportz]

I still owe Stix a report on scratched horses also.


I've got a feeling they wouldn't win too often. ;)

[crash]

2/3rds of favorites lose, and they do so at paltry prices. Why bother with them?

[Chrome Prince]

Because more of them win races than any other price and just a couple of filters break even at tote prices. Obtaining top fluctuation means profit without form. One doesn't necessarily have to stick to paltry prices, it's just a matter of spotting a worthwhile bet.

[Chrome Prince]

I've got a feeling they wouldn't win too often. ;)

Hehe, they do next start though ;)

[Mr Quaddie]

horses seldom wins two in a row.

[Chrome Prince]

33.82% win percentage

[Stix]

33.82% win percentageRepeat winners? or running after scratched the proposed run before?

[crash]

33.82% win percentage

For 2 wins in a row runners?
That's a slightly better SR than favorites. Are you sure, as most runners are struggling to have even a 20% win SR and 33.82% of all runners who win, do it 2 in a row?

If the % is correct and using top fluc. with a 'couple of filters' of course, any punter should be able to print money[?]

[partypooper]

good question: how many winners are placed next run?

[crash]

I don't know about placing Party, but it doesn't make sense that 33.82% win.

[partypooper]

Crash, maybe Chrome means that 33.82% winners that are fav next start win again? (did that make sense)

[Stix]

Horses that have won their last two starts and are favourite next start - Metro Only

All Selection
Sel 3,831
Win 1,358
S/R 35.45%
LOT 12.4%
Av. Div 2.47

Plc 2,490
S/R 65.00%
LOT 7.8%
Av. Div 1.42

Aged <5yo and not resuming
Sel 2,824
Win 1,021
S/R 36.15%
LOT 11.29%
Av. Div 2.47

Plc 1,860
S/R 65.9%
LOT 7.41%
Av. Div 1.41

Aged <5yo and not resuming and Same or less prizemoney
Sel 1,097
Win 427
S/R 38.92%
LOT 10.34%
Av. Div 2.30

Plc 749
S/R 68.28%
LOT 7.93%
Av. Div 1.35

Aged <5yo and not resuming and Same or less prizemoney carrying >57kg
Sel 305
Win 125
S/R 40.98%
LOT 7.28%
Av. Div 2.26

Plc 217
S/R 71.15%
LOT 5.21%
Av. Div 1.33

[crash]

What about horses that arn't favorites as already favorites win a 1/3rd of their starts, so 2 wins in a row for favorites is a bit meaningless isn't it [?].

[partypooper]

Good stuff there Stix, are those Unitab divies?

[crash]

I agree Party [quite a few filters there though], but favorites winning 2 in a row is a bit different than 33.82% of all last last start winners [no specified filters], winning again next start.

[Stix]

Good stuff there Stix, are those Unitab divies?Yep unitab divs.

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry guys, I should explain my figures a little better.
The percentage I quoted was for the method I gave Partypooper.

Last start winners, favourite or second favourite, within 7 days, greater than 3yo's.

The strike rate is actually a bit lower than it could be, because of multiple selections in some races.

The raw strike rate for favourites which won last start is 33.95%
The raw strike rate for favourites which did not win last start, excluding first starters is 29.43%
The raw strike rate for first start favourites is 33.51%

But the POT or LOT is significantly different on each group.

[partypooper]

Stix, if it's true that Best Tote is 10% better than unitab then then all of your list there is into profit (FOR THE PLACE)

[Bhagwan]

My stats show, based on Betfair SP Favs.

Favs that ran 2nd or 3rd LS shows a slight profit.

Favs that won LS show a -13% LOT but higher SR than any other stat .

What is weird is 1st career Favs have a similar SR as a LSW.

Cheers.

[Michal]

Talking about favorites ...... I have never seen a day where so many have won 14/12/2008

[Stix]

I have "devised" a All states Metro favourite backing system, with back tested results of the following with UNITAB results:

to 31/12/07
Sel 459
Win 202
S/R 44%
Profit 118+
POT 25.75%
Hi Div 4.9
Lo Div 1.3
Av Div 2.86

Plc 322
S/R 70.15%
Profit 22.7
POT 4.95%
Hi Div 2.2
Lo Div 1.0
Av Div 1.5


From 1/1/08 to current (and bet on via Unitab):
Sel 21
Win 11
S/R 52%
Profit 14
POT 67.2%
Hi Div 4.8
Lo Div 2.2
Av Div 3.19


Plc 17
S/R 80.95%
Profit 4.9+
POT 23.33%
Hi Div 2.0
Lo Div 1.1
Av Div 1.52

Obviously using best tote is one way to improve with out a staking plan, but as this is a profit making plan..... What staking plans would forum members suggest to improve these results?

(Hey Crash, the wetter the better the POT is too...Slow to Heavy S/R 42% POT 30.0%....no darts required http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif)

Thanks In Advance

[stugots]

stix, i came to the conclusion sometime ago that wet tracks were not to be feared & my methods have never suffered due to the state of the track

looks like a nice win system there

[crash]

Stix,

I generally don't bet on heavy tracks, but I often do on a slow track on a Sat. when all major meetings are wet.

Due to lots of scratchings on heavy tracks [poor prices] and often much smaller fields, it's obviously easier for a system tailored around back-fitted winners and back-fitted SP prices, to have performed OK on paper. It's also easier to find a winner or place-getter in a 4 or 5 horse race too and there is plenty of those small fields around [Syd. comes to mind regardless of the conditions]!

Lets see a heavy track system work in real time when SP prices can often fluctuate to any old price after the jump:-)

[Stix]

Stix,

I generally don't bet on heavy tracks, but I often do on a slow track on a Sat. when all major meetings are wet.

Due to lots of scratchings on heavy tracks [poor prices] and often much smaller fields, it's obviously easier for a system tailored around back-fitted winners and back-fitted SP prices, to have performed OK on paper. It's also easier to find a winner or place-getter in a 4 or 5 horse race too and there is plenty of those small fields around [Syd. comes to mind regardless of the conditions]!

Lets see a heavy track system work in real time when SP prices can often fluctuate to any old price after the jump:-);)
Also have the same outcome for my own selection method, which is not System based (as I've stated before)

As for fav's depends on what source you use to select them, I don't use SP as defined after the jump/pre-post/local paper form guide etc, but my own market pricing model.

Also bets are only placed on fields with runners of beetween 8 and 15 (after scratchings) - but you weren't to know as I have only just stated this. In fact in fields of 7 or less, it is a loss making activity.

Good Luck to all in the pursuit of a dollar (or two) !

[stugots]

we often seem to be on the same page stix

i only bet 8-14 starters, none of my selection methods are price dependent, & track conditions irrelevant

fields <8 are a hopeless pursuit imho, muddling pace, jocks auctioning off the result(just kidding...or am i), etc etc

[Stix]

we often seem to be on the same page stix

i only bet 8-14 starters, none of my selection methods are price dependent, & track conditions irrelevant

fields <8 are a hopeless pursuit imho, muddling pace, jocks auctioning off the result(just kidding...or am i), etc etcHey Stugots

Yep, you have to find what works. I usually confine my betting to 3 & 4 yo's and rarely bet on the older horses (5yo+), except for races >1800m, but then they have to be in good form. Anyway works for me.

[crash]

Post deleted. An unnecessary flame. Moderator.

[crash]

Crash, no one is forcing you to believe or disbelieve what is posted here. Please don't question the integrity of other forum members. No more of those posts here.
Moderator.

[stugots]

staking plan - 1% of bank recalculated daily

ive tried many approaches, this for me has proven the safest & surprisingly (or maybe not) most profitable

retirement plan is still a fav tho

[crash]

staking plan - 1% of bank recalculated daily

ive tried many approaches, this for me has proven the safest & surprisingly (or maybe not) most profitable

retirement plan is still a fav tho

Sounds realistic and I believe you mate!

[crash]

From horse racing master class ['total punting'] golden rules:

RULE 9
Keep your pockets sewn up when the ground is officially heavy.

[Stix]

From horse racing master class ['total punting'] golden rules:

RULE 9
Keep your pockets sewn up when the ground is officially heavy.Stix's #1 Rule: Don't follow other people or their rules. (Listen and learn, but find what works for you.)

[Chrome Prince]

I have busted many myths over the years, who actually derived these rules and why?
Well, it was either losing punters or bookmakers, either way, one should make one's own assessment of what works or what doesn't.
It's quite interesting to note that all the legendary punters don't have any of these rules - at all.
Phil Bull
Pittburgh Phil
Don Scott
Sean Bartholomeusz
Mark Read.

Wet tracks
Horses that used to run on Fast tracks were a worse betting proposition than extremely heavy track runners.
Whatever the going, one should be betting on horses proven in that going, or allowing for unproven horses with acceptable odds cut offs.
What one must look out for are changing track conditions, where a track goes from Dead to Heavy, this is where trainers "try em out anyway"
It's interesting to note, that when a horse fails on a rain affected track, that punters and commentators want to steer clear of rain affected tracks.

Where is the logic in this?

When a horse fails with a rise in class, or doesn't handle the pace, do we avoid all Group 1's or races that might possibly have a fast pace?

The truth is, that if you lived in the UK and avoided rain affected going, you'd probably have 10 bets a year ;)
And they seem to do pretty o.k.

The same applies to odds on, second up from a spell, small fields, horses for courses etc etc.

"odds on look on, or don't take odds on and don't walk up stairs"

Well you lose less than taking the next horse down in the betting, in fact any other horse in the field. By taking top fluctuation, you can actually make a profit on all of them!

The worst value is the outsider of the field, a punter loses the most, that's why bookies want punters to back them and avoid odds on favourites. And that's why bookies love the once a year crowd who bet on names colours and hunches.

Whatever a punter believes, if he believes it, nobody is going to change their mind, even if it's proven in black and white and real time.
There will always be a yes....but comeback.

We have to accept we are all different in our approaches.

As far a most maxims go, there isn't one I haven't busted ;)

[darkydog2002]

Spot on Chrome .
Thats the beauty of having a quality data base like yours.

Cheers.
darky.