Testing another Place system.

[michaelg]

I've been reading elsewhere about a Win system where there is a particular gap between the fave and second fave.

I've now looked at the pre-post market for a Place system where:

1) The fave's price is between $2.40 and $3.00.
2) The gap between it and second fave is at least 66%.

I've checked the results (Unitab divvies) from last Saturday and the method looks somewhat encouraging.

Sat - 3 placegetters from 5 selections for a return of $4.70.
Sun - 5 placegetters from 6 selections for a return of $7.20
Mon - 0 plscegetters from 1 selection for a return of $0.00
Tues - 3 placegetters from 3 selections for a return of $5.20.

There's been 11 placegetters from 15 selections for a return of $17.10. This is a strike rate of 73% and a POT of 14%.

Of course it's much too early to tell and it might now crash but there's one way to find out...

Today's selections are:
Sandown R3 no.1 - Crown Ruby
Sandown R6 no.1 - Schawmen.
Eagle Farm R2 no.8 - King Corvette
Eagle Farm R4 no.1 - Pyramids
Ascot R3 no.10 - Lovre.

[thorns]

I have played round with a method similiar to this before, in the end, the low divis were what killed it, had a great SR, but always seemed to be dealing with hot favs, so divis were low. The way I was doing it was the fav must be $3 clear of the second fav. However with yours, allowing the 2nd fav to be closer than that could be a benefit.

To check i'm on the right track, if the fav is paying $3, the second fav has to be $4.98 or greater, is that correct?

Cheers

[michaelg]

Hi, Thorns.

I disregard the real market and only look at the Telegraph pre-post market.

Yes, you're right with your calcs - if the Tele shows the fave to be $3.00 then the second fave as shown in the Tele must be at least $4.98.

You'd expect the diivvies to be low but they have so far been averaging $1.50 on Unitab.

[thorns]

Cheers Michael

Out of interest I went through teh PP market I often use (way 2 bet) and came up with these

Sandown
R3-1
Ascot
R3-10
Eagle
R2-8

All double ups of your selections.

[hambuger]

We suggest you do a Google Search to find the program you are looking for.
Please note we don't run free ads in this forum for commercial betting programs.

Post deleted. All capitals. That is shouting. No shouting please.
Moderator 3.

[michaelg]

Not a good day yesterday.

There was a further selection and I even bet on it but for some reason I missed listing it here. It was Strathalbyn R7 no.2 which placed, paying $1.60. In reality there were 6 selections for 4 placegetters for a return of $5.60, so the day's result wasn't too bad.

Today's selections:
Canterbury R4 no.5 - Warhead
Canterbury R7 no.1 - Friday Nights
Queanbeyan R8 no.1 - Granite Bluff

[thorns]

You should perhaps keep a win record as well, from memory it turned a profit yesterday, think it was about 1.5 units profit.

[michaelg]

Thorns, you're right. There were 3 winners paying a total of $7.20 on NSW TAB and $6.80 on Unitab.

I'll now also look at the Win divvies.

[michaelg]

Here's another Place system that has won me some money but will probably now be killed by the Forum Curse. The rules are:

1 ) Must be priced under $1.40 in Don Scott's market.
2 ) Must be placed last start.

There's not too much action, and it would be expected the divvies to be very skinny but this is not always the case. For example, there was only one selection yesterday, it ran second paying $1.80 on NSW TAB and $1.90 on Unitab.

Today's selections:
Flemington R3 no.1 - Braided General
Dombeen R6 no.4 - Azzaland
Morphetville R2 no.6 - Optimizing
Ascot R2 no.1 - Bike Aaromba
Colac R1 no.8 - Forever Laughing

[michaelg]

At last there's another selection.

Mackay R1 no.5 - Romantic journey.

Merry Xmas, everyone.

[michaelg]

Tuesday's selection won paying $1.90 and $1.20.

One selection today:
Randwick R4 no.6 - Koblenz.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection ran second paying $1.20.

Two selections today:
Gold Coast R4 no.12 - Star Of Ombra
Kembla R1 no.5 - Fille Majestique.

I've been testing another Place system with good results so far. The rules are:
1 ) A gap of at least 3 points between top and second selection on R & S EST ratings.
2 ) Must be placed last start.

Today's selections are;
Ascot R1 no.6 - Aria Magic
Ascot R8 no.4 - Proud Falcon
Dombeen R6 no.9 - Paprika
Gawler R6 no.6 - Artacus
Gold Coast R4 no.12 - Star Of Ombra
Kembla R3 no.6 - Baabaric
Moonee valley R4 no.4 - Musigny
Rosehill R1 no.3 - Indian Ocean

[crash]

Paprika hasn't missed yet but might be around $2 the win and $1.10 the place. Phelan Ready [3rd. last start] in the same race might be a better place option. It could win too!

[xanadu]

G'day crass,
howyagoin mate.......?
Havagoodun.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's two selections placed for a return of $3.60.

There have now been 8 placegetters from 10 selections for a POT of 16%.

Today's selections:
Hobart R8 no.3 - Conquering


EST method.

Yesterday there were 7 placegetters from the 8 selections for a POT of 23.7%.

Today's selections:
Hobart R2 no.2 - Big Cruiser
Hobart R8 no.3 - Conquering
Kilmore R4 no.4 - Lumiere Rouge
Naracoorte R2 no.7 - Danindi
Naracoorte R4 no.5 - Morpenny Miss
Naracoorte R5 no.3 - Havanotherone

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Bhagwan.

Both methods are doing quite nicely so far, even though there was a minor hiccup with the EST method yesterday and it suffered a loss of $0.06. One of the selections was not a true one because of a scratching - it was unplaced, otherwise it would have been a winning day.

No selections today for either method.

[wesmip1]

I've been testing another Place system with good results so far. The rules are:
1 ) A gap of at least 3 points between top and second selection on R & S EST ratings.
2 ) Must be placed last start.
1437 selections for 917 placings. Loss of 6%.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Wesmip1 even though its not the result I'd be hoping for.

A loss of 6% might show a profit on Betfair. The strike rate of 64% does seem somewhat low.

As there are not many selections per day I don't know if there would be any worthwhile filters for the method. But I might have a look at it, or something else based on the EST rankings as a 6% loss shows not too much inaccuracy.

[crash]

Place betting has to be the hardest punt of all. Mainly because of the lousy unders for the place compared to the win. Amazingly though, some place odds are way above what they should be and the astute punter can take advantage of them.

[michaelg]

As I won't continue with the Place method that is based on the ESP rankings I'll instead test a box quinella method. I'll post the selections here from tomorrow and see what happens.

1 ) Minimum of 9 runners.
2 ) No races where any horse is resuming.
3 ) No races over 1,800 metres.
4 ) No Maidens
5 ) All horses with at least two starts.
6 ) Box top half of ESP rankings.

I had a look at Sunday's races - there were 9 races, and the quinella was struck in all 9. The outlay was $126 and the return with Unitab divvies was $134. Today there were 2 races and the method struck both quinellas. The outlay was $30 for a return of $95.

Wesmip1, have you any figures for this method?

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

I don't keep quinella (or any other multiples) odds so am not able to help you with this one.

Good Luck

[michaelg]

Thanks, Wesmip1.

I'll give it a go from today and see if it's worthwhile.

[michaelg]

No selections today for the Don Scott Place method which isn't surprising. Since 20/12 there have only been 11 selections for 9 placegetters for a POT of 14.9%.

Box Quinella Method.

Today's selections:
Coffs R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 13, 15
Coffs R8 nos. 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
Rocky R7 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6,
Rocky R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10.

Total outlay of $81.

[michaelg]

Four selections today for the Place system

Gosford R1 no.5 - Miss Funhro
Ipswich R5 no.8 - Tamilda
Ipswich R6 no.3 - Golden Flute
Port Lincoln R1 no.1 - Gormley Sea.


Quinellas.

A bad day yesterday, losing $36. As it is still in profit over the past three days I'll give it another go and see how it does today.

Gosford 5 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
Echuca R6 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Ipswich R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Nowra R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
Mt Barker R7 nos. 1, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12
Pt Lincoln R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Pt Lincoln R6 nos. 1, 4, 6, 8, 10

Outlay of $97

[Try Try Again]

Hi Crash,

You're a man ahead of your time! You wrote on the 27th December

Paprika hasn't missed yet but might be around $2 the win and $1.10 the place. Phelan Ready [3rd. last start] in the same race might be a better place option. It could win too!

Hope you got some of the $90+ dividend.

Cheers

Try Try Again

[michaelg]

Here's another Place system I've been testing (and fortunately betting) since last Saturday. It does not have much action as the method is very selective.

The results are quite impressive - there have been 13 selections for 13 successes giving a POT of 51.07%.

The rules are:
1) Must be at least 3 points in the EST ratings above the second selection.
2) Last two starts must be a max of 5 placed-points unbroken by a spell.

It would seem that this would select red hot faves but there have been a couple of successes that have paid $2 plus. Only one horse so far has paid $1.04 - yesterday at Ascot R1 no.1.

Wesmip1, if you read this would it be possible to test it with your records?

Today's selections are:
Cranbourne R4 no.7 - Mightyblitz
Mt Barker R7 no.1 - Keytomoney.

Hopefully the Forum Curse will not do its usual job.

I have been looking at a similar system where the EST gap is only 2.5 points. There has only been one selection to date (yesterday Queanbeyan R4 no.4) - it placed.

There's one selection today:
Cowra R4 no.1 - Keanu Cugie.

[wesmip1]

The rules are:
1) Must be at least 3 points in the EST ratings above the second selection.
2) Last two starts must be a max of 5 placed-points unbroken by a spell.

I have it showing a 5% loss on the place. ( a loss of 8% on the win).

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

Add Rule : 3) Ran in last 14 days

and you get a 2% profit.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Wesmip1. Not the best of results, I was expecting/hoping for better.

Yesterday's two selections - one ran fourth, its last start was 21 days prior but the success ($2.90 and $1.50) had its last run 14 days prior to yesterday's race.

I'll keep on listing the selections and see what happens. I'll also state when it had its last start.

One selection today:

Moruya R2 no.1 - Noble Price (Last start 19 days ago).

[jayjones1]

not very good http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1981/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1795/t08g1114ocrq/1.gif

[crash]

Hi Crash,

You're a man ahead of your time! You wrote on the 27th December

Paprika hasn't missed yet but might be around $2 the win and $1.10 the place. Phelan Ready [3rd. last start] in the same race might be a better place option. It could win too!

Hope you got some of the $90+ dividend.

Cheers

Try Try Again

Just one of the horses I read right. Plenty that I don't though!

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection (over 14 days) placed paying $1.20.

No selections today. However there is a horse that is 2.5 points higher than the second selection, and as it ran within the past 14 days I'll keep a record of these and see how it goes.

It is:
Geraldton R6 no.6 - Luskarina.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection placed paying $1.40.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Townsville R6 no.2 - Smartaat (over 14 days)
Pinjarra R4 no.7 - Highly prized (14 days)

[michaelg]

From today I'll only list those that ran within the past 14 days.

Two selections today:
Wodonga R7 no.1 - Lanefrost
Moonee Valley R7 no.3 - Anavalanche.


I've also been testing over the past week another Place system.

1) $3.00 or less in the pre-post market.
2) 5 place-points unbroken by a spell.

I have looked at those that ran within 14 days and also over 14 days. Both have shown a profit but the former had a higher strike rate. I'll list today's selections in both categories and see how they go.

14 Days
Darwin R1 no.2 - Testagold
Wodonga R4 no.3 - Beau Esprit
Wodonga R7 no.1 - Lanefrost
Port Lincoln R5 no.1 - Amen's See
Moonee Valley R7 no.3- Anavalanche

Over 14 Days
Darwin R4 no.4 - Gilbeau
Moonee Valley R2 no.1 - Marchelle Belle
Moonee Valley R4 no.12 - Tahnee Topaz

[michaelg]

EST Method.

Not a good day yesterday - one success from two selections for a loss of $0.60.

Two selections today:
Morphetville R3 no.2 - All About Annie
Ascot R4 no.7 - Proart


Telegraph Method.
14 days - from yesterday's 5 selections there were 4 successes for a profit of $1.00.
Over 14 days - from the three selections there were two successes for a loss of $0.30.

Today's selections:
14 Days.
Sandown R6 no.1 - Schawmen
Eagle Farm R1 no.1 - Funtantes
Morphetville R3 no.1 - All About Annie
Moe R5 no.3 - Danaman
Moe R7 no.3 - Sky Devil-
Wellington R2 no.4 - Cape Trinare
Ascot R3 no.6 - Highly Prized
Ascot R4 no.7 - Proart
Gold Coast R8 no.2 - Age Of Heroes
Toowoomba R3 no.5 - Patch's Express
Toowoomba R6 no.6 - Angelic

Over 14 Days.
Randwick R2 no.1 - Coniston Bluebird
Sandown R2 no.1 - Youthful High
Eagle Farm R6 no.5 - Morgalicious
Morphetville R7 no.7 - Custodian
Kembla R2 no.1 - Handsome Stash
Ascot R5 no.1 - Danny Beau