Runs of outs

[Bhagwan]

Here is an item that may be worth reproducing from Lay The Odds

Strike Rate (%) Max. Losing Run
5 135
10 66
15 43
20 31
25 24
30 19
35 16
40 14
45 12
50 10
55 9
60 8
65 7
70 6
75 5
80 4
85 4
90 3
95 2


So, we can now calculate the maximum number of consecutive losing bets that we are likely to encounter providing that we know the strike rate of the selection system.

Having calculated the maximum number of consecutive losing bets, what use is this?

We use it to calculate what percentage of our betting bank it would be reasonable to expose on a single bet.

For example, if we use a selection system with a strike rate of 75%, we are likely to encounter, at some point, a run of 5 consecutive losing bets. If we allocate 100%/5 = 20% of betting bank to every bet and we encounter 5 consecutive losing bets, our betting bank will be completely exhausted and we will not have sufficient funds to recover the losses. I therefore have a ‘rule of thumb’ which I use to determine what percentage of my bank to allocate to each bet.

Firstly, using the strike rate of the selection system, I determine what the longest losing run is that I am likely to encounter. I then divide the longest losing run into 20%. This is the percentage of my betting bank that I allocate to each bet. If I am using a backing system, then the percentage is applied to the stake. If I am using a laying system, then the percentage is applied to the liability of the bet. By using this method, when I encounter the maximum number of losing bets, 80% of my betting bank remains in tact. This is more than ample with which to recover the lost funds.

If we again use the above example of a selection system with a strike rate of 75%, then we are likely to encounter a maximum losing run of 5 bets. If we divide 20% by 5, the result is 4%. I therefore allocate 4% of my betting bank to each bet. Now, when my selection system encounters 5 losing bets in a row, I will only lose 5 x 4% = 20% of my betting bank and I will still be left with 80% of my betting bank. This is more than ample to recover the lost funds.


Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Some Examples
We always divide our run of outs figure, into 20% (of bank.)
This gives us our max draw down percentage if this should occur, which still leaves us with 80% of bank to work with.

Win SR of 25%
According to out chart, we should expect 24 outs in a row at some stage so lets be prepared.

24 outs / 20% max draw down of bank if this should occur.
24 / 20 = Bet should be 0.8% of bank on each selection

Lay the Favs at 70% success rate of them falling over for us.
We have a SR of 70% we should prepare for a run of outs of 6 bets in a row going against us.

6 / 20 = Bet Liability 3.33% of bank for each race.
e.g. $3.33 Liability for each race, on a $100 bank
We now divide our Lay selections fractional odds into the $3.33
e.g. Selection is 2/1 divided into $3.33 = $1.66 O/L for that race.

This can be used as a guide for punters who like to do level stakes betting.
Most punters lose because they are betting a percentage to bank that is way too high to the risk percentage they are dealing with.


Cheers.

[crash]

Would it be that hard, using the SR% and the runs of outs to work out what odds are required per bet for each SR% category to turn a profit, rather than [or along with], just how much to bet?

[Bhagwan]

One would have to put in some research to find the price bands that work out the stronger using batches of 150 bets to see if there is a pattern where a profit may be had.

The Betfair market is considered to be very accurate to actual chance of winning.
e.g. Target all $10 shots & one should break even over 1000 bets.


Heres a Lay method that has its good days...

Target the tipsters 1st selection.

Must of run 2ng or 3rd LS.
These are usually over bet & the price should be nice & low.

Must be $5.50 & less.

Bet 1% of bank. Level stakes.

This usually has a 80%+ SR of falling over.

Cheers.