Advice wanted from true pros.

[partypooper]

Ok, that's a bit cheeky, but let me explain, I've been working a plan that I guess you could say is "mechanical" although it is constantly being "tweaked". I am now into my 5th year and I've just doubled my bets again (from Jan 1st) and hit the jackpot today at Bunbury, hence this post!

As I bet for the place my overall POT is very small but consistent. (the same plan by the way also shows a win POT slightly higher overall)

To be able to live off this I will need to Double my basic bets again at some point, I am worried about all sorts of things, the dreaded losing runs that I KNOW will come (ridden out heaps of em) I think I've got the patience thing under controll, but there's still a lot I need to digest.

I'm just seeking any snippets that may help, (I realise that no-one is going to broadcast their winning method) I'm talking about attitude, etc etc.

eg. 4 bets in one day recently, ......... I kid you not 3x4ths + 1x3rd (but 7 runners) all in photos, all backed for the place............. hhhuuuu, devastating, but the effect on my data base....................... hardly a ripple. But still it affected me mentally, I just need a little push somehow!

[crash]

Don't bet the rent money and you will be fine Party!

[Chrome Prince]

Partypooper,

If you need to double your bets to create a reasonable income, I would suggest not doing so.
Let me explain....
You would be far better finding something that gives you more action, twice as many bets, rather than just doubling your exposure.
Of course, it must be something stable and proven.

There are many advantages to this
1.Your results are less likely to have temporary aggressive peaks and troughs denting confidence (although you will still have good and bad days)
2. The impact of adverse results will be less to the overall outcome on the day or week.
3. You probably won't be so nervous as just doubling your bets.
4. If you don't have confidence in anything other than what's proven to yourself over the last 5 years, and I can understand this, then don't just double your bets straight away, use percentage of bank (not reducing) until you are betting double or more, this will also build confidence.
I would be worried about the effect of higher bets on your returns.

If you need assistance you know my email, I have a place method that breaks even at TAB prices, but you do need to watch the markets, rather than place all bets in advance.

[Chrome Prince]

I know your frustration by the way.
One of my methods selected Going Spending at Caulfield, but did not qualify on price.
On the tote it was $8.50, $8.70 and $9.00

Would have turned a losing day into a winning one, but longterm has to be the goal,and if I continually backed the horses further out in the market, it's a big fat loss!
So I have to be patient and let these winners not disturb me :(

P.S. Should have known when Read opened it at $4.50 :eek:

[maverick1993]

I agree with Chrome and increase your percentage as your bank grows....
well done by the way ,,5 years and growing with just place betting,,,out of interest if you had backed your selections just for the win or even e/w would that have affected your bottom line ??

and another thing,,,if your bank is fairly substantial ,,dont leave it in Mr Reads bank account ,,, put it in an good interest bearing account while its sitting there,,,seems fairly basic i know but it didnt dawn on me to do this for over year :)

[partypooper]

Thanks Chrome, as you know I have been looking for another method for a while now, and although some are promising it usually involves watching the markets which at the moment I can't do........ I do see your point about spreading the investments though.

maverick, yes as it turns out my basic plan shows a very similar POT for the win as well so could easily just swap to EW, however one of those "tweaks " I was talking about from Jan 1st, was 1 unit the win 2 units the place. It just happens to have started off on a good note so I am much more confident now.

I've never left a cent in IAS, I can't see any product that has an edge there?? (though I agree there could be other advantages when the stakes get a bit higher.)

Crash, fortunately I collect rents rather than pay em' bad news is ;it took me 40 years to get there!

[Chrome Prince]

O.K. then, never say I'm not flexible ;)

I've got one for ya that is win POT of 0.36% and place POT of 2.61% at tote prices, you can put the bets on three weeks in advance if you want ;)

[partypooper]

Chrome, you're on! though it sounds like sports betting to me? right?

[Chrome Prince]

Nope, email on it's way to your reply.

[Shaun]

I have been testing some systems via RaceCensus data base of late and the 2 major bits of form that are always needed to make a profitable system are days since last run and price, i am finding that 7 days is a good mark but it does reduce the amount of bets and less than $8 or first 2 in betting.

Most of the better systems seam to only have between 100 and 200 bets a year, i did come up with a system that had a POT of 4% tab divis but i was looking for win systems and forgot to save the data i was searching for.

[Chrome Prince]

I'd just make one point that systems that are close to breakeven or up to say 3% loss through RaceCensus are winners when best tote, top fluc or Betfair are used.

[Bhagwan]

Try using an auto bot for bet place ment on Betfair.

Have it stop as soon as say 4-6 losses in a row have been struck.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Thanks Bhags, whilst I'm sure you have something there it's not for me, I like very clear cut selections in advance, betting where I know I will get the best odds available to the rank and file. I know there is a margin with betfair that is there to be exploited but I am not at that level yet, (knowing ones own limitations is a lot to do with it I reckon.)

I've mastered most of the old deamons, i.e spur of the moment betting, chasing losses, PATIENCE, and a realistic expectation of POT.

[Crackone]

Partypooper,

If you need to double your bets to create a reasonable income, I would suggest not doing so.
Let me explain....
You would be far better finding something that gives you more action, twice as many bets, rather than just doubling your exposure.
Of course, it must be something stable and proven.Hi Chrome something that I have thought about is which it better,
800 bets returning 103% (unitab odds) or with a few filters
510 bets returning 115%

Cheers

[TWOBETS]

This is a subject close to my heart and I'm pretty sure young Crash skirted the concept in one of his informative posts. To beat my drum again, I only bet on the place for what I call favorites so I'm subjected to pitiful returns but of course the strike rate more than copensates.

Crash's theory went along the lines of the fewer times you bet the less you lose. (If I've got the wrong end of the stick Crash I apologise, it's just something that stuck in my mind and was a long time ago).

Since most peoples wagers come down to a trade-off between strike rate and dividends it sems to me that it makes sense "work wise" to aim for he highest strike rate possible (ie. the fewest number of bets). Reduced work load for same return !

[Crackone]

Hi Chrome something that I have thought about is which it better,
800 bets returning 103% (unitab odds) or with a few filters
510 bets returning 115%

Cheersgot the numbers wrong!!

808 bets returning 103% (32% SR) 60% place retuning 97%
420 bets 115% (38% SR) 64% place 102%
all unitab figures over the last 10 months.

[crash]

[QUOTE=TWOBETS]
Crash's theory went along the lines of the fewer times you bet the less you lose. (If I've got the wrong end of the stick Crash I apologise, it's just something that stuck in my mind and was a long time ago).

QUOTE]

When it comes to form study it makes sense. Careful selection of 2 or 3 races to study and bet on is far better than betting a whole race meeting card where a lot of the races have runners with very little exposed form or even no exposed form. It often means the difference between profit and loss. System betting with lots of bets might be a different cup of tea, depending on the system. I haven't enough experience with systems to draw any definite conclusions regarding number of bets.

[stebbo]

Hi PP,

if you contact me offline I'd be happy to have a chat with you about your plans and give you a few pointers.

Cheers,
Chris.

[partypooper]

Stebbo, sounds good to me , but no addy for ya, mine is lumbasakabayo att hottmale dott comm

[partypooper]

Shaun, yes I have been looking at that (7 days etc) and looks very promising, I would be requiring 10-20 bets a week (or more) to make this idea plausible. I know I'm not asking for much (honest) but I also need a plan that I can operate on line from overseas, as I travel abroad a fair bit. I've tweaked the one I'm using now to be able to do that successfully.

Of course there is no reason that I can't operate more than one plan to arrive at the required no of bets as long as they all perform near the same.

[Mr Quaddie]

Best system is

1) Discard horses who won last start
2) Discard horses coming off a spell
3) Horse must be in top 5 newspaper ratings
4) Horse must be top 5 in betting.
5) Horse must be $15 or less in newspaper betting
6) Horse must not have a weight shift of +3kg or -3kg or more from last start
7) Horse must of placed at distance and track before

[partypooper]

Mr Quaddie, I agree with most of that but because of rule no. 2 you would have to rule out all races of 1200m or less as the majority are won by first uppers (after a spell).

[wesmip1]

that system is going to be subjective based on the newspaper used and the quality of the tipsters (also depends on definition of a spell) but I ran it and found it lost 11% on turnover.


Good Luck

[wesmip1]

1) Discard horses who won last start
2) Discard horses coming off a spell
3) Horse must be in top 5 newspaper ratings
4) Horse must be top 5 in betting.
5) Horse must be $15 or less in newspaper betting
6) Horse must not have a weight shift of +3kg or -3kg or more from last start
7) Horse must of placed at distance and track before
Change the rule 1 to be INCLUDE only last start winners. and it shows a loss of only 7%.

Add 1 more rule of INCLUDE only those who have at least two career wins and it shows a loss of 3%.

Only include those who jump as favourite (or under $3 if dual favs) and it shows a 4% profit with a 48% strike rate.

All Prices are Unitab.

Good Luck

[wesmip1]

add rule "Raced within the last 10 days"

and you get a 17% profit with a 55% strike rate but only approix 80 bets a year.

Good Luck.

[partypooper]

Great stuff Wes. as usual, very interesting!