There's just one thing?

[partypooper]

Puzzled! given a S/R I know it's possible to work out the expected max runs of hits (and misses) but it's strange how the winners and losers are mainly consistently mixed but then almost predictable clumps of winners almost always followed by clumps of losers, not really sure what I'm trying to say there, just puzzled how those winners tend to come in batches, like how can that be predictable when each horse still only has the same chance of winning, i.e. if the S/R is 33% then we would expect 1 winner in three?

[Chrome Prince]

I think it's selective recognition Party.
I am guilty also.

"We" notice batches of winners or losers, we don't tend to notice anything out of the ordinary.

I was of the same opinion as yourself, it seemed that a bad run was followed by a good run and vice versa, however, when I went back and looked at the data for a whole year, it only happened a few times.

An example of a noticed run was one day I lost 22 units backing favourites, the very next day I won exactly 22 units!

I noticed this because it was kind of eerie.

I never notice anything that doesn't stand out.

[AngryPixie]

Poop
I remember reading somewhere that humans are pre-programmed to form patterns from visual data. We want to see patterns in things. We all do it. It makes us feel comfortable and in control. We do it so often that much of the time we see patterns in things when no pattern exists. When we do we turn it into a betting system... ;)

[crash]

Puzzled! given a S/R I know it's possible to work out the expected max runs of hits (and misses) but it's strange how the winners and losers are mainly consistently mixed but then almost predictable clumps of winners almost always followed by clumps of losers, not really sure what I'm trying to say there, just puzzled how those winners tend to come in batches, like how can that be predictable when each horse still only has the same chance of winning, i.e. if the S/R is 33% then we would expect 1 winner in three?

Luck and bad luck tend to come in batches too. Rooster for awhile, feather duster for awhile!

[Ill Get There]

Luck and bad luck tend to come in batches too. Rooster for awhile, feather duster for awhile!lady luck is only bad lucks little sister..lol

[Chrome Prince]

Dame Fortune and Lady Luck, the twisted sisters.
Luck is in the eye of the beholder.

Ask ten punters about interference or a bad ride and you'll get at least 5 different views on it.

[jayjones1]

cheers for the info thanks http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/744/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1795/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1981/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gif

[partypooper]

Have I logged onto some advertising forum by mistake??? maybe for a sling or two eh?

[Bhagwan]

This occurrence is part of the joy of punting.

A run of outs is usually corresponded with a run of ins but we never quite know exactly when, it could be in 2 days time..

Example.
Take any batch of reliable selections.

Break the selection for each race, into batches of 5, in any order.

One will see that most batches will strike at least one winner within those 5 bets.

Some will experience 0 winners within those 5.

Some will have 2-4 winners within their 5.

Most will strike 1 win within that batch of 5 bets.

This may give a clearer pattern to ponder over.

One may observe 4 batches in a row with 0 result & other batches following with 3 winners in each batch shortly after the run of outs.

At the end of the day say after 150 bets or 30 batches of 5, the overall stats will not be denied.
e.g. if one is using say a tipsters top selection, they will usually have a 25% SR no matter which tipster one chooses.

It's just that it does not feel like it at the time, when we may be using them on that day or week.

Here's a staking plan that can work if we hit 1 in 5 bets.
The idea is to stop betting for that batch of 5, once a winner is struck.
Then target the remaining batches of 5 doing the same thing.

STAKING
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00 = 10.00 for each Batch.

Start a fresh batch of 5 horses, leaving the un-bet horses behind from the previous batch, once the winner is struck.

.Have 10 lots of $10.00 = $100
This allows for 50 outs.

.Remembering to stop betting for that batch once a winner is struck.

I have found it usually hits a winner within 5 bets with this process.

If we do strike a batch with 5 losers, write it off & continue with the others.

SELECTION PLAN
Make up ones races which are going to be bet into batches of 5 races in each batch.
You dont have to have your selections as yet , just the races Nos. & venue.

.Target tipsters top 2 selections.(These usually have a 36-45%SR) depending on the day of one of these two getting up.

.Bet the one of the two horses, that is not the market Fav.

.If no fav in those 2 selections, take the shorter market price of the 2 horses.

It will usually strike a good paying winner within that batch of 5 bets.

We are making the assumption that a winner will usually be struck within each batch of 5.

Now there's a pattern on its own & us humans love pattens, it gives us sence of order in an otherwise chaotic universe ... rightly or wrongly.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Malcolm Knowles "Power of ten " takes full advantage of this anamoly that a winning run is always followed by a losing run and vice versa.

I admit it .I am a big fan of Malcolms statistical skills.

Cheers and happy new year to all.

[partypooper]

If target betting (or progressive staking) one can lessen the effect of a losing run as follows: say you are betting race to race at each meeting, so instead count one days betting as 1 bet. eg. say progressive betting (top of my head) 1,3,5,5, 8,8, etc etc, so day one =1 unit /8 races =1/8 of a unit on each, say no profit for the day so day 2, = 3 units/8 races = 3/8 of a unit on each and so on, reverting back to the starting point after a win for the day.

Of course you still need a selection method that shows a level stakes profit or leave your cash in the bank.

[Top Rank]

I am a firm believer in the "Cluster Theory of Life". Occurences, including winners in your latest betting system come in clusters.
There have been three shark attacks in as many days, and all of a sudden there is mass hysteria. A check of the stats shows that overall there are no more or less shark attacks than previous, just a cluster of them.
Which for system bettors is the reason you should have confidence in your system. If you have tested it for a long enough period of time, you should have confidence that you know what its strike rate is.
If it is 30%, you know that it may go as high as 40% or as low as 20% on occasions but it will always return to the 30% and you can adjust accordingly.

Darky I have also read plenty of Malcolm Knowles stuff but the I think the "Power of Ten" fails because it expects average dividends to perform consistently as strike rates for winners do.
Strike rates will always be consistent over time (ie: win % of favs) but I don't think the same can be said for average dividends, they can go right off.

Jeez I better get off before I bore people.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Top Rank
I agree with your findings when it comes to av divs.

Its always a bugbare for system users where their SR is consistant but the average div seems to drop at some stage , resulting in a break even or slight loss, instead of the previouse history of a profit, but with exactly the same SR....frustrating.

It also reveals how important it is to get the best price where possible & the single stand alone TAB is not one of then.

Cheers

[Mike367]

It may be because I've a head cold and me heads not working as it should, anyway below you say
".Remembering to stop betting for that batch once a winner is struck"

Do you mean if for eg, Melb r2#2 wins, then I go straight to Batch 2 starting with Syd r1#1? Do I ignore Melb R3,4,&5 or do I start the next Batch with Melb r3#3

eg Batch 1 sel Melb r1#1 r2#2 r3#3 r4#4 r5#5
eg Batch 2 sel Syd r1#1 r2#2 r3#3 r4#4 r5#5
Thanks Bhagwan I do like the staking and selection plan of yours.
Cheers,
Mike

This occurrence is part of the joy of punting.

A run of outs is usually corresponded with a run of ins but we never quite know exactly when, it could be in 2 days time..

Example.
Take any batch of reliable selections.

Break the selection for each race, into batches of 5, in any order.

One will see that most batches will strike at least one winner within those 5 bets.

Some will experience 0 winners within those 5.

Some will have 2-4 winners within their 5.

Most will strike 1 win within that batch of 5 bets.

This may give a clearer pattern to ponder over.

One may observe 4 batches in a row with 0 result & other batches following with 3 winners in each batch shortly after the run of outs.

At the end of the day say after 150 bets or 30 batches of 5, the overall stats will not be denied.
e.g. if one is using say a tipsters top selection, they will usually have a 25% SR no matter which tipster one chooses.

It's just that it does not feel like it at the time, when we may be using them on that day or week.

Here's a staking plan that can work if we hit 1 in 5 bets.
The idea is to stop betting for that batch of 5, once a winner is struck.
Then target the remaining batches of 5 doing the same thing.

STAKING
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00 = 10.00 for each Batch.

Start a fresh batch of 5 horses, leaving the un-bet horses behind from the previous batch, once the winner is struck.

.Have 10 lots of $10.00 = $100
This allows for 50 outs.

.Remembering to stop betting for that batch once a winner is struck.

I have found it usually hits a winner within 5 bets with this process.

If we do strike a batch with 5 losers, write it off & continue with the others.

SELECTION PLAN
Make up ones races which are going to be bet into batches of 5 races in each batch.
You dont have to have your selections as yet , just the races Nos. & venue.

.Target tipsters top 2 selections.(These usually have a 36-45%SR) depending on the day of one of these two getting up.

.Bet the one of the two horses, that is not the market Fav.

.If no fav in those 2 selections, take the shorter market price of the 2 horses.

It will usually strike a good paying winner within that batch of 5 bets.

We are making the assumption that a winner will usually be struck within each batch of 5.

Now there's a pattern on its own & us humans love pattens, it gives us sence of order in an otherwise chaotic universe ... rightly or wrongly.

Cheers.

[Mike367]

Sorry I've just reread you post..

Start a fresh batch of 5 horses, leaving the un-bet horses behind from the previous batch, once the winner is struck

My heads working better today
Thanks,
Mike